汶川地震强地面运动模拟

基于确定性震源模型的方法主要用于计算低频(11 Hz)地震动常用经验格林函数法或随机方法,对低频地震动模拟不够准确．本文在确定性震源模型方法基础上,尝试采用分解给定的震源模型的方法来模拟宽频带(0.1——10 Hz)强地面运动,即采用分级离散断层面和分解断层面破裂单元上升时间的方法,增加震源时间函数中的高频信号,从而避免了对地震记录丰富程度和准确性的依赖．文中模拟计算了汶川MS8.0地震在8个地震观测台的地震动,将模拟结果和观测记录进行了加速度时程曲线和傅里叶振幅谱的对比分析．对比结果显示,模拟估计的地震动峰值加速度和持续时间与观测记录的数据基本在plusmn;50%的精度范围内相同,傅里叶振幅谱显示模拟结果有得到10 Hz左右的高频成分. 四川盆地中的台站模拟结果高频衰减比观测记录要快,原因是模拟过程没有考虑场地效应.对强地震动模拟还是要综合考虑震源、传播路径和场地的影响．研究结果表明,此改变震源输入的确定性方法可应用于模拟近断层宽频强地面运动．      

Quantitative estimates of interplate coupling inferred from outer rise earthquakes

Interplate coupling plays an important role in the seismogenesis of great interplate earthquakes at subduction zones. The spatial and temporal variations of such coupling control the patterns of subduction zone seismicity. We calculate stresses in the outer rise based on a model of oceanic plate bending and coupling at the interplate contact, to quantitatively estimate the degree of interplate coupling for the Tonga, New Hebrides, Kurile, Kamchatka, and Marianas subduction zones. Depths and focal mechanisms of outer rise earthquakes are used to constrain the stress models. We perform waveform modeling of body waves from the GDSN network to obtain reliable focal depth estimates for 24 outer rise earthquakes. A propagator matrix technique is used to calculate outer rise stresses in a bending 2-D elastic plate floating on a weak mantle. The modeling of normal and tangential loads simulates the total vertical and shear forces acting on the subducting plate. We estimate the interplate coupling by searching for an optimal tangential load at the plate interface that causes the corresponding stress regime within the plate to best fit the earthquake mechanisms in depth and location.We find the estimated mean tangential load over 125–200 km width ranging between 166 and 671 bars for Tonga, the New Hebrides, the Kuriles, and Kamchatka. This magnitude of the coupling stress is generally compatible with the predicted shear stress at the plate contact from thermal-mechanical plate models byMolnar andEngland (1990), andVan den Buekel andWortel (1988). The estimated tectonic coupling,F _tc , is on the order of 10¹²–10¹³ N/m for all the subduction zones.F _tc for Tonga and New Hebrides is about twice as high as in the Kurile and Kamchatka arcs. The corresponding earthquake coupling forceF _ec appears to be 1–10% of the tectonic coupling from our estimates. There seems to be no definitive correlation of the degree of seismic coupling with the estimated tectonic coupling. We find that outer rise earthquakes in the Marianas can be modeled using zero tangential load.     

Multifractal characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes in intraplate and interplate regions

Introduction For a long time, the seismologists have paid great attentions to the research on the spatio- temporal distribution of earthquake intensity, which provide us with significant information for the researches on crustal stress variation, tectonic activity and earthquake risk prediction in a certain spatio-temporal region. The existing results have shown consistently that the intensity of earth- quakes is characterized by non-stability, non-linearity in temporal domain and non-uniformi…     

随机有限断层法模拟中强地震近场强震动的参数影响研究

介绍了模拟地震动时程的随机有限断层法及近年来对该方法的改进,改进后的随机有限断层法适合模拟中强地震;比较了不同场地方位角的中强地震近场地震动时程与平均伪加速度反应谱(PSA);定量分析了中强地震近场地震动模拟结果的参数敏感性. 结果表明：不同场地方位角的中强地震近场PSA在短周期部分差别较大;应力降是模型中最重要的参数,其对反应谱短周期部分影响最大;几何扩散系数对PSA的整体影响也较为明显. 将随机有限断层法应用到工程安全性评价工作中时,应当重点关注对反应谱短周期部分影响较大的应力降和该区域的几何扩散系数,同时要调查该区域优势场地方位角的分布,更加合理地控制中强地震近场强震动的模拟.     

Stochastic ground-motion simulation of two Himalayan earthquakes: seismic hazard assessment perspective

The earthquakes in Uttarkashi (October 20, 1991, M _w 6.8) and Chamoli (March 8, 1999, M _w 6.4) are among the recent well-documented earthquakes that occurred in the Garhwal region of India and that caused extensive damage as well as loss of life. Using strong-motion data of these two earthquakes, we estimate their source, path, and site parameters. The quality factor (Q _β ) as a function of frequency is derived as Q _β (f) = 140f ^1.018. The site amplification functions are evaluated using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The ground motions of the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes are simulated using the stochastic method of Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 73:1865–1894, 1983). The estimated source, path, and site parameters are used as input for the simulation. The simulated time histories are generated for a few stations and compared with the observed data. The simulated response spectra at 5% damping are in fair agreement with the observed response spectra for most of the stations over a wide range of frequencies. Residual trends closely match the observed and simulated response spectra. The synthetic data are in rough agreement with the ground-motion attenuation equation available for the Himalayas (Sharma, Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1063–1069, 1998).     

Seismic source-parameter relations for earthquakes in Greece

A data set of nineteen, mainly shallow, moderate to large earthquakes, which occurred in the Aegean and the surrounding area, has been used to derive empirical relations for kinematic fault parameters. Thus the relations between seismic momentM ₀ and magnitudeM _s andm _b and betweenM ₀ andM _s and fault dimensionsS andL have been determined. From these relations and theoretical ones it was deduced that earthquakes in the Aegean and the surrounding events, chiefly interplate, are characterized by low average stress drop values. Values of ranging from 1 to 30 bar are consistent with the data. It was also found that, in general terms, most of the data obey the geometrical similarity conditionL=2w, whereL is the fault length measured along the strike andw is its width measured along the dip. For strike-slip faults, however, the conditionL=4w seems to hold.     

A regionally adaptable ground-motion model for fourier amplitude spectra of shallow crustal earthquakes in Europe

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Typical seismic ground-motion models predict the response spectral ordinates (GMM-SA), which are the damped responses of a suite of single-degree-of-freedom...     

Orientation effect on ground motion measurement for Mexican subduction earthquakes

The existence of the principal directions of the ground motion based on Arias intensity is well-known. These principal directions do not necessarily coincide with the orientations of recording sensors or with the orientations along which the ground motion parameters such as the peak ground acceleration and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) are maximum. This is evidenced by the fact that the maximum PSA at different natural vibration periods for horizontal excitations do not correspond to the same orientation. A recent analysis carried out for California earthquake records suggests that an orientation-dependent ground motion measurement for horizontal excitations can be developed. The main objective of this study is to investigate and provide seismic ground motion measurements in the horizontal plane, including bidirectional horizontal ground motions, for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquake records. Extensive statistical analyses of PSA are conducted for the assessment, The analysis results suggest that similar to the case of California records, the average behavior of the ratio of the PSA to the maximum resulting PSA can be approximated by a quarter of an ellipse in one quadrant; and that the ratio can be considered to be independent of the value of the maximum resulting PSA, earthquake magnitude, earthquake distance and the focal depth. Sets of response ratios and attenuation relationships that can be used to represent a bidirectional horizontal ground motion measurement for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquakes were also developed.     

Physical criterion to evaluate seismic activity associated with the seismic cycle of great interplate earthquakes

A new criterion is introduced to judge if the vicinity of the source region of a great interplate earthquake is in an active period. It is based on the stress change caused by the great earthquake. A region is regarded as being in an active period of seismicity if the occurrence rate of earthquakes on faults in the stress shadow of the great earthquake is significantly higher than in the early stage of the seismic cycle, and if the stressing rate of these faults is sufficiently low. This criterion was applied to the seismicity in the central part of southwest Japan before and after the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. The results show that before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, the region was in an active period from at least 1927.The region was in a quiet period for almost50 years after the 1946 Nankai earthquake.Data after 1995 show that the region is once more in an active period of seismicity preceding the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough,although the total number of earthquakes has not yet significantly increased. Our results indicate that earthquake probability in the central part of southwest Japan will become high in the coming decades until the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough.     

A novel model and estimation method for the individual random component of earthquake ground-motion relations

In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In essence, I contend that the individual random component is reproduced adequately by a simple stochastic mechanism of random impulses acting in the horizontal plane, with random directions. The random number of impulses was Poisson distributed. The parameters of the model were estimated according to a proposal by Raschke J Seismol 17(4):1157–1182, (2013a), with the sample of random difference ξ?=?ln(Y ₁ )-ln(Y ₂ ), in which Y ₁ and Y ₂ are the horizontal components of local ground-motion intensity. Any GMR element was eliminated by subtraction, except the individual random components. In the estimation procedure, the distribution of difference ξ was approximated by combining a large Monte Carlo simulated sample and Kernel smoothing. The estimated model satisfactorily fitted the difference ξ of the sample of peak ground accelerations, and the variance of the individual random components was considerably smaller than that of conventional GMRs. In addition, the dependence of variance on the epicentre distance was considered; however, a dependence of variance on the magnitude was not detected. Finally, the influence of the novel model and the corresponding approximations on PSHA was researched. The applied approximations of distribution of the individual random component were satisfactory for the researched example of PSHA.     

Strong earthquakes in the Pribaikalie: Macroseismic data

In this work the data on earthquakes in the Pribaikalie over the pre-instrumental observation period are given. The methods of determination of local and remote earthquakes with limited information of macroseismic effects are considered. A lists of strong (M ≥ 5) earthquakes in the southern Pribaikalie, as well as a list all earthquakes in the Southeastern Transbaikalian and the South of the Siberian platform, is given.     

Response spectral attenuation relations for in-slab earthquakes in Indo-Burmese subduction zone

From an analysis of a limited number of strong-motion data recorded in northeast Indian region, the in-slab earthquakes along the Indo-Burmese subduction zone are found to be characterized by much larger ground motion amplitudes than that for the earthquakes along other subduction zones around the world. Specific type of source, propagation path and site geologic condition may perhaps simultaneously be responsible for such anomalous behaviour. The empirical attenuation relations developed by Atkinson and Boore [3] using a global database for subduction zone earthquakes have been therefore suitably modified to be more appropriate for the northeast India. The modified relationships are developed by combining the data for both horizontal and vertical components of motion. The response spectra of the accelerograms recorded in northeast India from earthquakes with widely varying magnitude and distance are, in general, found to match very well with the predictions from the modified attenuation model. The proposed model can thus be used to obtain more realistic estimate of the contribution of in-slab subduction zone earthquakes to seismic hazard in the northeast Indian region.     

Source spectra and RMS acceleration of Mexican subduction zone earthquakes

Strong motion (SM) data of six Mexican subduction zone earthquakes (6.4M _S8.1) recorded near the epicentral zone are analyzed to estimate their far-field source acceleration spectra at higher frequencies (f0.3 Hz). Apart from the usual corrections such as geometrical spreading (1/R), average radiation pattern (0.6), free surface amplification (a factor of 2), and equal partitioning of the energy into two orthogonal horizontal components (a factor of 1/ ), the observed spectra are corrected for a frequency dependentQ(Q=100f), a site dependent filter (e ^–kf ), and amplification ofS waves near the surface (a factor of about 2 atf2Hz). We takeR as the average distance from the rupture area to the site. If we model the high frequency plateau (f1 Hz) of the source spectra, by a point source ^–2-model, and interpret them in terms of Brune's model we obtain between 50 and 100 bars for all earthquakes. The low-frequency broadband teleseismicP wave spectra, corrected witht ^*=1.0 s, agrees within a factor of two with SM source spectra near 1 Hz. The ^–2-model is inadequate to explain the observed source spectra in a broad frequency range; these resemble spectra given byGusev (1983) with some differences.SM source acceleration spectra require significant corrections to explain observed spectra and RMS acceleration (a_rms) (a) at farther coastal sites for extended sources due to directivity effect and (b) at inland sites (100R200 km) because of unaccounted path and site amplification and/or invalidity of body-wave approximation. The observed spectra and a_rms at these sites are significantly greater than the predicted values from the estimated source spectra.     

库玛断裂带强震活动与地震空区研究

库玛断裂带作为青藏高原内部的一条强地震活动带, 1900年以来发生过3次7级地震,其中2次7级大震前均出现5级以上地震的背景空区,表明背景空区对该带大震具有中长期预报意义。最近一次背景空区业已形成,并出现与之配套的孕震空区,其演化图像符合强震孕育模式。研究发现,库玛断裂带中段M_L 3以上地震空区,对共和7级强震及周边200 km的强震有前兆意义。     

Source parameters and scaling relations for small earthquakes in Kumaon Himalaya, India

We investigate the scaling relationships among earthquake source parameters using more than 300 good quality broad band seismograms from 30 small earthquakes in the Kumaon Himalaya from the spectral analysis of P and S waves. The average ratio of P/S wave corner frequency is found to be 1.13, which is suggestive of shift in the corner frequency. The estimated seismic moment range from 1.6?×?10¹³–5.8?×?10¹⁵ N?m, while the stress drop varies from 0.6 to 16 bars with 80 % of the events below 10 bars. An analysis of stress drop and apparent stress drop indicates the partial stress drop mechanism in the region. The source radii are between 0.17 and 0.88 km. The total seismic energy varies from 1.79?×?10⁸ to 7.30?×?10¹¹ J. We also observe the variation in seismic energy for a given seismic moment. The scaling relation between the seismic moment and stress drop suggests the breakdown of constant stress drop scaling for the range of seismic moments obtained here for the region. This shows the anomalous behavior of small earthquakes in the region. The study indicates that the stress drop is the dominant scaling factor for the moments studied here.     

Strong motions and engineering structure performances in recent major earthquakes

In recent years, a series of major earthquakes occurred, which resulted in considerable engineering damage and collapse, triggered heavy geological haz-ards, and caused extremely high casualties and huge property and economic loss.     

An empirical spectral ground-motion model for Iran

A new ground-motion prediction equation for 5%-damped horizontal spectral acceleration applicable to Iran is presented. On the basis of analysis of variance (ANOVA), selected West-Eurasian records are added to an existing dataset of Iranian accelerometric data to yield a ground-motion prediction equation applicable at wider ranges of magnitude and distance. The advantages of using this model rather than those proposed previously for Iran are discussed by considering the distribution of residuals against the explanatory variables, magnitude and distance. The applicability of the proposed model, as well as those of several other models developed for shallow crustal environments, is also investigated by means of statistical tools. The results reveal the overall suitability of the new model as well as the validity of models developed using mainly Eurasian strong-motion records. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

云南地区中小地震静力学和动力学参数定标关系

通过消除S波观测谱中的传播路径、场地响应、仪器响应等影响因素,得到中小地震的震源谱.根据Brune震源模型,运用遗传算法计算了地震矩、应力降、震源半径等震源参数;通过考虑由于有限的仪器带宽带来的地震辐射能量低估及补偿问题,测定了中小地震辐射能量;分析了云南地区ML2.0 ～5.3地震静力学和动力学参数定标关系.结果表明:地震矩为2.1×1012～1.2 ×1016N·m,地震矩M0和震级ML的线性关系式为lgM0=1.01ML+10.59;震源破裂半径在86.9～1220.4m之间,地震矩M0与震源半径a之间的关系式为lgM0 =0.003a+ 12.90;应力降结果介于0.03 ～57.55MPa之间,当M0＜4×1014N.m时,应力降随地震矩的增大而增大,当M0≥4 ×1014N·m时,应力降与地震矩之间无明显的依赖关系;地震矩M0与拐角频率∫c明显有依赖关系,二者之间的关系式为lgfc=- lgM0+5.32;地震辐射能量ER在3.01×106～2.06×1012J之间,地震辐射能量ER与震级ML之间的关系为lgER=1.18ML+5.69.当M0＜4×1014N·m时,折合能量有随地震矩增大而增大的趋势,当M0≥4×1014N·m时,折合能量不随地震矩的增大而变化;地震视应力范围为0.02～31.4MPa之间,视应力与震源深度之间没有明显的依赖性.     

Historical intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea Benioff zone: modeling their anomalous macroseismic patterns with stochastic ground-motion simulations

We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, I_MM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of V_S30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.