Investigation of ionospheric TEC changes related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake based on statistic analysis and signal detection

Ionospheric TEC (total electron content) time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile and 2-standard deviation of TEC values, this paper analyzed the characteristics of ionospheric changes before and after the destructive event. The Neyman-Pearson signal detection method is employed to compute the probabilities of TEC abnormalities. Result shows that one week before the Wenchuan earthquake, ionospheric TEC over the epicenter and its vicinities displays obvious abnormal disturbances, most of which are positive anomalies. The largest TEC abnormal changes appeared on May 9, three days prior to the seismic event. Signal detection shows that the largest possibility of TEC abnormity on May 9 is 50.74%, indicating that ionospheric abnormities three days before the main shock are likely related to the preparation process of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.     

Physical interpretation and mathematical simulation of ionospheric precursors of earthquakes at midlatitudes

The paper presents the results of studying anomalous variations in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere as probable precursors of strong seismic events. The vertical drift of the F2 layer’s ionospheric plasma under the effect of seismically generated zonal electric field is considered as a likely reason for the observed variations in the TEC. An estimation of this drift effects is made by mathematical simulation utilizing the global numerical model of the Earth’s upper atmosphere (UAM). Midlatitude ionospheric effects were simulated. Two types of seismogenerated electric fields (dipole and monopole) were used with various magnitudes and spatial configurations. The derived results were compared with the TEC data of GPS observations from the IGS for the Kitira earthquake in southern Greece (January 8, 2006; M 6.8). It was shown that variations generated by additional sources of the dipole type are consistent with the observed data; monopole-type sources did not reproduce some typical peculiarities of these observations and systematically underestimated the deviation value.     

汶川大地震前后电离层电子含量的扰动分析

为了分析地震前后电离层电子含量的变化,本文选取四川汶川发生8.0级地震前后10天电离层中的电子含量作为研究对象,使用IGS网站提供的VTEC数据,采取统计学分析方法,结合太阳和地磁活动信息,对此次地震前后电离层VTEC资料进行了详细的统计分析和讨论,数据分析结果表明大地震前电离层电子含量会出现明显扰动,电离层中电子含量的异常变化有可能是地震发生的前兆信息.     

Precursory phenomena observed in the total electron content measurements before great Hokkaido earthquake of September 25, 2003 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> = 8.3)

In this paper the analysis of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) variations obtained with using GPS measurements before the Hokkaido earthquake (M = 8.3) is presented. Anomalous behavior of TEC was detected within several days before the main event. Anomaly appeared as the local TEC enhancement situated in the vicinity of the forthcoming earthquake epicenter. These structures occurred during 5 days prior to the shock at the same interval of local time. At the process of the earthquake approach the amplitude of modification was increased, and it has reached the 85–90% level relative to the non-disturbed conditions 18 hours before the earthquake. The area of strong positive disturbance has extended over 1500 km in latitudes and 4000 km in longitudes. The analysis have shown that according to the series of characteristics (its locality, affinity with the epicenter, dome-shaped zone of manifestation, characteristic time of existence) the detected ionospheric anomaly may be associated to the precursors of seismic activity.     

Large-scale disturbances of auroral origin during strong magnetic storms of October 29–31, 2003, and November 7–11, 2004, according to the data of the GPS network and ionosondes

The intensity of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LS TIDs), registered according to measurements of the total electron content (TEC) during the magnetic storms of October 29–31, 2003, and November 7–11, 2004, has been compared with that of local electron density disturbances. The data of TEC measurements at ground-based GPS receivers located near the ionospheric stations and the corresponding values of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F region (foF2) were used for this purpose. The variations in TEC and foF2 were similar for all events mentioned above. The previous assumption that the region of thickness 150–200 km in the vicinity of the ionospheric F region mainly contributes to TEC modulation was confirmed for the cases when the electron density disturbance at an F region maximum was not more than 50%. However, this region probably becomes more extensive in vertical when the electron density disturbance in the vicinity of the ionospheric F region is about 85%.     

利用GPS和DEMETER数据分析汶川地震前电离层变化

利用GPS TEC和法国DEMETER卫星ISL探测器的观测数据,分析了汶川地震前电离层变化.结果表明,电离层TEC在5月6-10日地方时下午有连续的负异常现象,5月9日地方时下午有明显的正异常现象.电离层TEC异常的范围主要位于震中南部区域,EW方向上1 100 ～1 670km,SN方向上1 600 ～3 700km.5月6日的负异常偏震中东南,5月7日的负异常偏震中西南,5月9日的正异常偏震中东南.震中西南和南部地区负异常较东南地区明显,震中南部和东南地区正异常程度较西南地区偏高,震中位置所对应南半球磁力线共轭区都出现了一定程度的正或负扰动.DEMETER卫星观测的电子密度Ne和离子密度N.在5月6-10日也出现了明显的负异常,异常分布与电离层TEC异常分布较为一致,主要集中在震中南部.震中所在的经度带上存在2个负异常峰值,且在纬度上关于地磁赤道对称.最后在上述异常的基础上,对基于岩石圈-大气层-电离层耦合的地震电离层异常机理开展了初步讨论.     

Anamolous ionospheric TEC variations prior to the Indonesian earthquake (M 7.1) of November 15, 2014

This paper investigates preearthquake ionospheric variations with the use of TEC of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) and regional maps based on Precise Point Positioning (PPP) during the 7.1-M Indonesian earthquake that occurred on November 15, 2014. TEC maps corresponding to 10 days before to 4 days after the event were examined. In addition, a time series of TEC values according to the PPP maps were also evaluated. In addition to GIMs, it was possible to detect TEC variations with PPP maps. The results showed that ionospheric TEC decreased strikingly 4 days prior to the earthquake. This TEC variation was highly likely related to seismic activity.     

THE METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING IONOSPHERIC TEC BACKGROUND FIELD BASED ON SVR MODEL

There are many factors related to the variations of TEC, and the changes of TEC caused by earthquake only occupy a small portion. Therefore, it is vital how to exclude the ionospheric interference of non-seismic factors accurately in the process of seismic ionospheric anomaly extraction. This study constructed a TEC non-seismic dynamic background field considering the influence of solar and geomagnetic activities. Firstly, the TEC components of half-year cycle and annual cycle are extracted by wavelet decomposition. Then, it establishes a regression model between TEC in which periodic factors are removed and solar activity index, geomagnetic activity index with SVR method(support vector regression)in non-seismic period. Finally, based on the constructed model, the solar activity index and geomagnetic activity index is used to reconstruct aperiodic components of TEC in earthquake's period. From the reconstructed aperiodic components of TEC plus the half-year periodic components and annual periodic components of TEC in the same period, the non-seismic dynamic background field is obtained. Comparing the residuals relative to original TEC values in non-seismic dynamic background field and traditional sliding window background, there are apparent monthly periodic change and semi-annual periodic change in the residuals of sliding window background, which can have obvious impacts on the subsequent seismic ionospheric anomaly detection. In order to test the validity of seismic TEC anomaly detection based on the background field construction method, this paper investigated the long time series TEC anomalies near Wenchuan city(30°N, 100°E)from March 1 to September 26 in 2008. It is found that under the condition of non-seismic disturbance such as solar activity and geomagnetic activity, TEC abnormal disturbance is rarely detected by non-seismic dynamic background field method, when compared with the traditional sliding time-window method. And before the earthquake, more TEC anomalies were detected based on the proposed method, also, they were more intense than those extracted by sliding window method. Therefore, the TEC background field construction method based on SVR(support vector regression)has superiorities in both system errors elimination, which are caused by solar, geomagnetism, the non-seismic ionospheric disturbance events and periodic fluctuations of TEC, and in reducing the false alarm rate of seismic TEC anomaly. Moreover, it can also improve the seismic TEC anomaly detection ability. In addition, this paper analyzed the time-spatial distribution of TEC anomaly before three earthquakes on May 12, August 21 and August 30, 2008. They were mainly negative abnormal perturbations and often distributed on the equatorial side of epicenter.     

Global plasmaspheric TEC and its relative contribution to GPS TEC

The plasmaspheric electron content is directly estimated from the global positioning system (GPS) data onboard JASON-1 Satellite for the first time. Similarly, the ground-based GPS total electron content (TEC) is estimated using about 1000 GPS receivers distributed around the globe. The relative contribution of the plasmaspheric electron content to the ground-based GPS TEC is then estimated globally using these two independent simultaneous measurements; namely ground-based GPS TEC and JASON-1 GPS TEC. Results presented here include data from 3 months of different solar cycle conditions (October 2003, May 2005, and December 2006). The global comparison between the two independent measurements was performed by dividing the data into three different regions; equatorial, mid- and high-latitude regions. This division is essential as the GPS raypaths traverse different distances through the plasmasphere at different latitudes. The raypath length through the plasmasphere decreases as latitude increases. The relative contribution of the plasmaspheric electron content exhibits a diurnal variation that depends on latitude with minimum contribution (10%) during daytime and maximum (up to 60%) at night. The contribution is also maximum at the equatorial region where the GPS raypath traverses a long distance through the plasmasphere compared to its length in mid- and high-latitude regions. Finally, the solar cycle variation of plasmaspheric contribution is also reported globally.     

Anomalous modification of the ionospheric total electron content prior to the 26 September 2005 Peru earthquake

This paper investigates the features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies in the total electron content (TEC) data obtained on the basis of regular GPS observations from the International GNSS Service (IGS) network. For the analysis of the ionospheric effects of the 26 September 2005 Peru earthquake, Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) of TEC were used. The possible influence of the earthquake preparation processes on the main low-latitude ionosphere peculiarity—the equatorial anomaly—is discussed. Analysis of the TEC maps has shown that modification of the equatorial anomaly occurred a few days before the earthquake. In previous days, during the evening and night hours (local time—LT), a specific transformation of the TEC distribution had taken place. This modification took the shape of a double-crest structure with a trough near the epicenter, though usually in this time the restored normal latitudinal distribution with a maximum near the magnetic equator is observed. Additional measurements (CHAMP satellite) have also confirmed the presence of this structure. To compare the vertical TEC measurements obtained with GPS satellite signals (GPS TEC), the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI-2001, was used for calculating the IRI TEC.     

Automated daily process for global ionospheric total electron content maps and satellite ocean altimeter ionospheric calibration based on Global Positioning System data

The accuracy of single-frequency ocean altimeters benefits from calibration of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere below the satellite. Data from a global network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers provides timely, continuous, and globally well-distributed measurements of ionospheric electron content. For several months we have been running a daily automatic Global Ionospheric Map process which inputs global GPS data and climatological ionosphere data into a Kalman filter, and produces global ionospheric TEC maps and ocean altimeter calibration data within 24 h of the end-of-day. Other groups have successfully applied this output to altimeter data from the GFO satellite and in orbit determination for the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. Daily comparison of the global TEC maps with independent TEC data from the TOPEX altimeter is performed as a check on the calibration whenever the TOPEX data are available. Comparisons of the global TEC maps against TOPEX data will be discussed. Accuracy is best at mid-to-high absolute latitudes (∣latitude∣>30°) due to the better geographic distribution of GPS receivers and the relative simplicity of the ionosphere. Our highly data-driven technique is relatively less accurate at low latitudes and especially during ionospheric storm periods, due to the relative scarcity of GPS receivers and the structure and volatility of the ionosphere. However, it is still significantly more accurate than climatological models.     

The seismicity and tectonic stress field characteristics of the Longmenshan fault zone before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake

The seismicity of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinities before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is studied. Based on the digital seismic waveform data observed from regional seismic networks and mobile stations, the focal mechanism solutions are determined. Our analysis results show that the seismicities of Longmenshan fault zone before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were in stable state. No obvious phenomena of seismic activity intensifying appeared. According to focal mechanism solutions of some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the direction of principal compressive stress P-axis is WNW-ESE. The two hypocenter fault planes are NE-striking and NW-striking. The plane of NE direction is among N50°?70°E, the dip angles of fault planes are 60°?70° and it is very steep. The faultings of most earthquakes are dominantly characterized by dip-slip reverse and small part of faultings present strike-slip. The azimuths of principal compressive stress, the strikes of source fault planes and the dislocation types calculated from some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are in accordance with that of the main shock. The average stress field of micro-rupture along the Longmenshan fault zone before the great earthquake is also consistent with that calculated from main shock. Zipingpu dam is located in the east side 20 km from the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The activity increment of small earthquakes in the Zipingpu dam is in the period of water discharging. The source parameter results of the small earthquakes which occurred near the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake indicate that the focal depths are 5 to 14 km and the source parameters are identical with that of earthquake.     

Numerical simulation of the variations in the total electron content of the ionosphere observed before the Haiti earthquake of January 12, 2010

We present the results of a study of the abnormal variations in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere observed before the earthquake of January 12, 2010, in Haiti. Global and regional maps of TEC relative (%) deviations from the quite background state are built for January 9–12, 2010. Using the UAM (Upper Atmosphere Model) global numerical model of the upper atmosphere of the Earth, the variations in the electric potential in the ionosphere and TEC are calculated using external seismic current above faults between the Earth and the ionosphere as a lower boundary condition. The numerical simulation results are compared with observations. It is shown that the simulated variations in the TEC at a specified current density of about 1 × 10^?8 A/m² on an area of 200 km (latitude) × 4000 km (longitude) above the focus represent all main features of the observations: prevalence of increased TEC values (positive disturbances), neighboring negative disturbances of lower magnitudes, localization, magnetic conjugacy of high-intensity effects in the Southern Hemisphere, and disappearance of disturbances around midday. Methodological recommendations are given to reveal variations in the TEC related to the preparation of seismic events.     

2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因

2008年5.12汶川大地震发生在中国大陆南北地震带中段.由于龙门山断裂带历史上只发生过3次6～6¹/₂级强震,而且其晚第四纪构造活动速率很低,以至于对其潜在地震危险性认识不足.为什么在龙门山地区突发大地震,该地震具有哪些特征？其成因机制是什么？本文在地震地质科学考察的基础上,利用震前的GPS观测结果,试图对上述问题进行一些初步的思考和探讨.结果表明,5.12汶川大地震是龙门山断裂带的映秀—北川断裂突发错动的结果,地表上形成200多公里长的地表破裂带;灌县—江油断裂在地震中也发生了破裂,形成的地表破裂带长达60多公里.震前的GPS观测表明,横跨整个龙门山断裂带的滑动速率不超过～2 mm/yr,单条断裂的活动速率不超过～1 mm/yr,与地震地质研究结果和历史地震记录相一致.利用地震地质考察和地震波反演得到的最大同震位移可以获得相当于5.12汶川大地震的强震复发周期为2000～6000年.龙门山断裂带发育在破裂强度很大的变质杂岩体中,断裂带本身在剖面上呈“犁形”或“铲形”结构,有利于能量积累,形成破坏性巨大的地震.所以,5.12汶川大地震是一次低滑动速率、长复发周期和高破坏强度的巨大地震,是一种值得高度重视和深入研究的新的地震类型.     

Ionospheric disturbances in the east-Asian region during the geomagnetic period in November 2004

Results of the studies of ionospheric parameter variations during the intense geomagnetic storm on November 7–11, 2004, in the 20°–80° N, 60°–180° E sector are presented. The data of ionospheric stations and the results of total electron content (TEC) measurements at the network of the GPS ground-based receivers and of the GPS receiver onboard the CHAMP satellite were used. Periods of total absorption and blanketing sporadic E layers were observed at high latitudes, whereas durable negative disturbances typical of geomagnetic storms of high intensity were detected at midlatitudes. In the afternoon hours of local time on November 8, 2004, a large-scale ionospheric disturbance of a frontal type was detected on the basis of foF2 and TEC measurements. The disturbance propagated southwestward at a mean velocity of about 200 m/s. The comparison of the relative amplitude of this large-scale disturbance according to the total electron content (～70%) and foF2 (～80%) measurements made it possible to assume a large vertical scale of the disturbance.     

汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带的地震活动性和构造应力场特征

研究了2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带及其附近地区的地震活动.利用区域地震台网和流动测震台的数字地震波资料,测定了震源机制解.结果表明,震中所在的龙门山断裂带震前地震活动平稳,未出现显著异常增强或平静现象.根据汶川8.0级地震前地震活动求出的震源机制解,其主压应力P轴方位为WNE——ESE向,震源断层面呈NE向与NW 向两组节面走向.其中NE向节面呈N50deg;——70deg;E,断面倾角均陡,达60deg;——70deg;,震源力学作用方式多呈逆倾型,少部分呈走滑型．震前地震活动呈现的主压应力方位、震源断面走向及其错动类型,与汶川8.0级地震给出的解是一致的.巨大地震发生前沿龙门山断裂带微破裂呈现的平均应力场与主震一致．起始破裂区东侧20km内是紫坪铺水库水域区,这一区域发生小震活动增加的现象处于水库放水的卸载阶段.本文研究了汶川8.0级地震起始破裂区附近的小震活动,其震源参数表明,震源位于8.0级地震之上的5——14km深度,其震源参数与8.0级地震给出的解也是一致的．      

The seismicity and tectonic stress field characteristics of the Longmenshan fault zone before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake

The seismicity of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinities before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is studied.Based on the digital seismic waveform data observed from regional seismic networks and mobile stations, the focal mechanism solutions are determined.Our analysis results show that the seismicities of Longmenshan fault zone before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were in stable state.No obvious phenomena of seismic activity intensifying appeared.According to focal mechanism solutions of ...     

基于非相干散射雷达和GPS观测研究Millstone Hill地区等离子体层电子含量

本文尝试结合非相干散射雷达和GPS TEC观测数据提取等离子体层总电子含量(PTEC).我们首先描述所用的技术方法,然后具体利用了Millstone Hill台站的观测数据研究该地区上空等离子体层总电子含量(PTEC)的变化情况.我们采用变化标高的Chapman函数对非相干散射雷达测得的电子浓度剖面数据进行拟合,然后通过对剖面积分得到100 km到1000 km高度范围的电离层总电子含量.GPS提供的TEC数据为高度达20200 km的总电子含量,两者之差可近似看成等离子体层的电子含量.本文分别选取太阳活动高年(2000, 2002年)和太阳活动低年(2005,2008年)Millstone Hill台站的静日数据进行研究.结果表明,等离子体层电子含量及其所占GPS TEC的比例具有明显的周日变化.PTEC含量在白天高于夜间,而所占GPS TEC的百分比,夜间明显高于白天.太阳活动高年所选月份等离子体层电子含量在4~14 TECU (1TECU=10¹⁶el/m²) 范围内变化,夜间所占比例可达60%左右.太阳活动低年所选月份等离子体层电子含量在3~7 TECU范围内变化,所占比例夜间最高可达80%左右.我们所得到的结果与前人基于其它观测手段所得结果在变化趋势上一致,在量级上也大致相当.因此,这从一个侧面证明了我们所用方法的可靠性.非相干散射雷达能够探测包括F2层峰值以下及以上高度的电子浓度,利用这一设备所观测得到的资料来推算电离层电子含量将比前人基于电离层垂测仪观测资料进行的推算更具真实性,由此得到的等离子体层电子含量也将更为接近真实情况.     

Total solar eclipse of July 22, 2009: Its impact on the total electron content and ionospheric electron density in the Indian zone

The longest total solar eclipse during the 21st century occurred in South and East Asia on July 22, 2009. Ionospheric response to this rare total solar eclipse which was observed right from the time of sunrise in the Indian zone, has been studied in terms of the total electron content (TEC) obtained from three global positioning system (GPS) receivers located at Udaipur, Hyderabad and Bengaluru, and electron density obtained using space based GPS-Radio Occultation technique. The study reveals significant reductions in the electron density and TEC that persisted up to 2 h past the last contact even during early morning eclipse. These observations imply that during the early morning eclipse, the production and loss of ionization dominate over the plasma transport processes.     

基于GPS观测的汶川地震参数反演与库仑应力变化分析

利用汶川MS8.0地震前后的GPS观测资料,借助Okada矩形位错模型反演汶川地震参数,进而应用反演所得地震参数,计算地震在其周围GPS资料负位错反演所得震前应变积累断层段上可能造成的库仑破裂静应力变化,分析地震对其周围构造断裂应变积累的影响。结果表明,汶川震区呈显著逆冲兼右旋走滑同震变化,对甘川交界东段—甘川陕交界区、鲜水河断裂南段与安宁河断裂北端应变积累有一定程度影响,可能以增强作用为主。