Ionospheric anomalies detected by ground-based GPS before the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, China

In this paper, we used the vertical total electron content (VTEC) derived from ground-based GPS observations to examine the ionospheric variations during the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake which occurred on May 12, 2008, in China. The final results showed that the ionospheric VTEC around the epicenter increased obviously 9 days before the earthquake, decreased significantly 6 days before the earthquake, and increased strikingly 3 days before the earthquake. Relative to a normal non-perturbed state of the ionosphere, the maximum anomalies in the 3 days exceeded 40%, 40%, and 70%, respectively. The spatial sizes of the VTEC decrement and increment by more than 30% extended larger than 1500 km in latitude and 4000 km in longitude. Moreover, the maximum anomalies 6 days and 3 days before the earthquake moved towards the equator.     

中国四川2008年5月12日汶川地震的地质与地球物理背景

2008年5月12日, 在青藏高原东缘的龙门山, 发生了MW7.9地震. 这一地震是在青藏高原长期隆升和向东推挤的背景下形成的. 发生地震的区域有以下典型的地质特征: 不是陡峭山前的活动汇聚造山带(包括地形起伏大于4 km的情况), 而是缺少高活动强度的低角度逆冲断层;虽拥有年轻的高地形(距今15 Ma)和加厚的地壳, 但是却只有低的GPS缩短率(小于3 mm/a), 并且缺少同时代的前陆沉积. 在我们看来, 青藏高原东部下面的地壳加厚不是因为上部地壳的大范围缩短, 而是由于位于软弱层(低速层)中的深部地壳的韧性增厚. 横跨龙门山的晚新生代缩短量可能仅有10～20 km, 且伴有主要造成青藏高原和四川盆地差异抬升的褶皱和断裂. 5月12日的地震可能反映了青藏高原东部相对四川盆地的带有缓慢的汇聚和右旋走滑的长期抬升. 5月12日地震邻区内GPS确定的速率表明, 该地震的平均复发间隔大约为2 000～10 000年.     

2008年5月12日汶川MW 7.9地震的震源位置与发震时刻

综合运用四川省地震台网与紫坪铺水库地震台网的观测资料,精确地测定了2008年5月12日汶川MW7.9地震的震源位置与发震时刻．指出,对汶川地震这样的大地震精准定位,必须克服或尽量减少远台观测对地震精确定位的局限性、地壳介质模型的不完善性以及识别与检测初至波震相的不一致性等因素的影响．通过分析对比、反复试验,从上述台网中精心选取了方位分布均匀、具有近震源台站约束、直达P波震相确系由初始破裂辐射出的15个地震台的直达P波到时数据,反演得出精确度比区域性地震台网常规测定的精确度高一个数量级的汶川大地震的定位结果,即:发震时刻（北京时间）:2008年5月12日14:27:57.59plusmn;0.03 s;震中位置:31.018deg;Nplusmn;0.3 km,103.365deg;Eplusmn;0.3 km;震源深度:15.5 kmplusmn;0.3 km．      

Reconnaissance report and preliminary ground motion simulation of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The M _w = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, caused destruction over a wide area. The earthquake cost more than 69,000 lives and the damage is reported to have left more than 5 million people homeless. It is estimated that 5.36 million buildings were destroyed and 21 million buildings were damaged in Sichuan and the nearby provinces. Economic losses due to the event are estimated to be 124 billion USD. From a field reconnaissance trip conducted in October 2008, it is evident that the combination of several factors, including mountainous landscape, strong ground shaking, extensive landslides and rock-falls, has exacerbated the human and economic consequences of this earthquake. Extensive damage occurred over a wide area due to the shear size of the earthquake rupture combined with poor quality building construction. In order to investigate the ground shaking during the earthquake, we have conducted a strong ground motion simulation study, applying a hybrid broadband frequency technique. The preliminary results show large spatial variation in the ground shaking, with the strongest ground motions along the fault plane. The simulation results have been calibrated against the recorded ground motion from several near-field stations in the area, and acceleration values of the order of 1 g are obtained, similar to what was recorded during the event. Comparison with the damage distribution observed in the field confirms that the effect of fault rupture complexity on the resulting ground motion distribution also controls to a large extent the damage distribution. The applied simulation technique provides a promising platform for predictive studies.     

2008年汶川8.0级地震孕震机理研究

用三维流变非连续变形与有限元相结合（DDA+FEM）的方法,在青藏高原及邻近地区三维构造块体相互制约的大背景中,考虑了龙门山断裂带东西两侧地势、地壳厚度和分层的明显变化,及断裂带东侧四川盆地及鄂尔多斯块体坚硬地壳阻挡的影响,通过用GPS资料做位移速率边界约束和震源机制约束,计算得到研究区的速度场和应力场与该地区GPS测量结果和震源机制分布结果基本一致.在此基础上,模拟计算现今构造块体边界断层上表征剪应力及法向应力等综合影响的危险度分布.结果表明,上、中地壳层危险度分布中危险度较高的地段多数与近几十年来发生的七级以上大震区域基本一致.包括2008年汶川8.0级等大震的发震断层.通过分别对龙门山断裂带东西两侧的两种不同构造格局进行试算表明,龙门山断裂带东西两侧地势、地壳厚度、分层与物性明显变化对汶川大震的孕育发生均起了关键性作用.计算得到的应变率强度分布图可见,高原东部整个边缘地带均接近应变率强度的陡变带.其中以龙门山断裂带上的陡变最为明显,西侧应变率强度是东侧的近4倍,而且断裂带东侧应变率强度等值线衰减比西侧快.反映了汶川大震逆冲型发震断层地区独特的特征.此外,由计算得到的应变能密度分布图可见,龙门山断裂带在上、中地壳层中均位于宽度相同、其走向与龙门山断裂带走向一致的高应变能密度带中,在上地壳层这个带的东西两侧则是应变能密度较低的地区,而在中地壳层,其强度在断裂带东侧逐渐向东衰减,西侧应变能密度高,而东侧应变能密度较低.表明在印度板块强烈推挤作用和高原各构造块体相互制约及龙门山断裂带东西两侧特殊构造环境中,高原地壳物质向东水平运动,受到龙门山断裂带东侧介质刚性强度较大的四川盆地阻挡,使得汶川大震发震断层在大震前已积累了相当水平的应变能,并同时处于力学上的不稳定状态.     

GPS detection of the coseismic ionospheric disturbances following the 12 May 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in China

Here we report two cases of coseismic ionospheric disturbances observed through a GPS network in China after the great Wenchuan earthquake at 06:28 UT on 12 May,2008.One is detected 7.9 min after the earthquake and had an intensiveNshape oscillated waveform with a pronounced amplitude of about 1 TECU,which propagates approximately southward to the distance about 1000 km with the horizontal phase velocity of 600±84 m/s and the period of 9.5±1.3 min.The other is detected8.5 min after the earthquake and has an oscillated waveform more like a positive pulse with an amplitude of about 0.5 TECU,which propagates eastward to the distance about 800 km with the horizontal phase velocity of 720±59 m/s and the period of7.4±0.8 min.These two coseismic ionospheric disturbances are caused by the acoustic gravity waves excited by partial transformation of the acoustic waves originated from the energy release of the earthquake,somewhere near the epicenter.The directional preferences of these two coseismic ionospheric disturbances may be associated with the oblique geomagnetic field lines and the background winds filtering effect.     

汶川8.0级地震的一些启示

文章分析了地震能否预报争议的历史、 背景及其影响, 主张地震预报要知难而进, 要坚持监测、 预报和科研这一中心工作。 地震预报探索就是一部不断在反思和总结中前进的历史。 文中讨论了1975年海城7.3级、 1976年唐山7.8级、 1995年孟连西7.3级和2001年昆仑山口西8.1级等地震的启示、 2008年汶川8.0级地震的意义及科学继承与发展问题。 作者提出了地震大形势的判断、 地震前兆、 观测资料分析与评价等在汶川地震科学总结中要思考的重点问题, 建议做好汶川地震的科学总结、 制定新一代地震预报发展规划、 部署新一代观测台网、 完善地震监测预报工作体制等, 进而开创我国地震工作的新局面。     

成都平原内汶川Ms8.0级地震的地表变形

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级大地震发生在青藏高原东缘龙门山推覆构造带上,除映秀—北川断裂、灌县—江油断裂上各形成240 km和72 km 长的地表破裂带外,可能在成都平原西部的什邡市师古镇附近形成一条弱地表破裂带.成都平原内的地震地表破裂带与龙门山区的2条地震破裂带构成倾向北西的叠瓦状逆断裂地震地表破裂系统.野外调查发现,师古镇南肖家院—庆云庵建筑物严重破坏带、水渠跌水、地表褶皱、喷砂和地裂缝带走向30°,延伸长度约7.5 km.探槽开挖表明,地表地震褶皱陡坎下的地层发生弯曲变形,汶川地震使断层上盘的地面和最新地层褶皱隆起0.2 m.TC2探槽中的粘土层底面褶皱隆起0.4 m,它可能记录到汶川地震之前另外一次与汶川地震大小相当的古地震事件.浅层地震勘探资料表明,平原区出现地震地表破裂的位置不仅存在晚更新世活动断裂,而且伴生有第四纪活动褶皱.     

Numerical simulation of strong ground motion for the M_s8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008

The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground mo-tion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure, finite-fault rupture, and realistic surface topography. The simulated ground motions reveal that the fault rupture and basin structure control the overall pattern of the peak ground shaking. Large peak ground velocity (PGV) is distributed in two narrow areas: one with the largest PGV values is above the hanging wall of the fault and attributed to the locations of fault asperities and rupture directivity; the other is along the north-western margin of the Sichuan Basin and caused by both the directivity of fault rupture and the ampli-fication in the thick sediment basin. Rough topography above the rupture fault causes wave scattering, resulting in significantly larger peak ground motion on the apex of topographic relief than in the valley. Topography and scattering also reduce the wave energy in the forward direction of fault rupture but increase the PGV in other parts of the basin. These results suggest the need for a localized hazard as-sessment in places of rough topography that takes the topographic effects into account. Finally, had the earthquake started at the northeast end of the fault zone and ruptured to the southwest, Chengdu would have suffered a much stronger shaking than it experienced on 12 May, 2008.     

Rupture directivity effect on strong ground motion during the 12 May 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

We focus here on the rupture directivity effect on the spatial distribution and attenuation characteristics of near-field ground motions during the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. We examine the difference between the observed ground motions in and opposite the rupture directions and compare them with Next Generation Attenuation-West2 (NGA-West2) ground motion prediction models. The isochrone directivity predictor is used to quantify the band-limited nature of the rupture directivity effect on strong ground motion. Our results show that the observed peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral accelerations of periods of 1.0 s and longer are significantly amplified in the rupture direction, but de-amplified in the opposite direction affected by rupture directivity effect of this event. In contrast, the effect of rupture directivity on the observed peak ground acceleration (PGA) and periods of shorter than 1.0 s are relatively weak. The rupture directivity of this event shows clear period dependent and band limited characteristics with the strongest effect occurring around the period of 7.5 s.     

用余震确定2008年汶川M_w7.9地震的震源位置与发震时刻

利用同一地点的2个地震在相同台站记录的P波到时差是一个常数这一原理,找到了与汶川主震位置相近的余震,并利用台站距震中近,且记录波形清晰、完整的优势,对余震进行了定位,依此确定了汶川主震的位置和发震时刻.结果是震中位于31°1.26′N、103°22.50′E;震源深度7.9km;发震时刻(北京时间)为2008年5月12日14时27分58.80秒.     

汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探

2008年5月12日8.1级汶川大地震发生后,我们对国家测震台网的40台宽频带地震仪在5月7日~5月13日的观测数据进行了分析.结果表明,汶川大地震前有明显的短临异常: 各台站在大地震发生前1~3天内不同程度检测到了低频异常颤动,颤动振幅逐渐增大,一直持续到大地震发生,信号周期范围为2~10 s.重力仪和倾斜仪也观测到了这类颤动信号.汶川大地震前的异常颤动信号几乎遍布中国大陆,但在西部较弱,东南部较强,尤其在华南地块靠近菲律宾板块的边界处颤动信号很强.因此我们的初步推测是：异常颤动产生的可能原因是地震爆发前华南地块可能开始了慢滑移,滑移时的摩擦产生低频颤动.     

汶川M_S8.0地震天体引潮力和温度变化过程

地震是地应力达到一定程度后,短时间内发生的剧烈构造运动,反映的是地球构造应力积累达到一定强度后释放的突变过程.这一过程是复杂的,受多种因素作用的.我们计算了汶川8.0级地震天体引潮力变化,结果表明,本次地震发生在天体引潮力最低(2008年5月4日)→最高峰(5月14日)→最低(5月21日)周期的高峰区域内,表明当震源处岩石中的构造应力积累到岩石破裂滑动的临界状态时,受到适当方向上的天文潮汐应力触发的作用,可能发生地震.同时,利用天体引潮力最低(5月4日)为背景温度,逐日相减的方法,提取5月5～16日逐日温度变化图(图1 .     

对2008年5月12日四川汶川特大地震的几点反思

从2008年5月12日四川汶川8．0级地震发生后暴露出的几个实际问题入手,对地震知识普及、通讯系统、交通系统、震害预防和救援保障以及防震救灾制度建设五个方面进行了剖析,并提出了附讲的建议．     

2008年5月12日中国汶川M=7.9级地震预计增大了三条主要断裂系的破裂应力和地震发生率

龙门山断裂带上的汶川地震摧毁了四川的几座城市,夺去了69000多人的生命。计算结果显示,该地震可能使部分鲜水河断裂、东昆仑断裂大部以及部分岷江断裂应力增加了0．2～0．5bar,更加接近破裂状态。这3条位于青藏高原东部的活动断裂带均在离汶川发震带150-400km的库仑静应力影响范围内。由于部分受力断层上的应变累积至少已有一个世纪之久,最近的汶川地震有可能触发或加速这些断层带上新的7级以上强震的发生,从而可能造成从四川省康定至道孚、青海省玛沁至甘肃省洛大以及邻近区域的强烈震动。本文利用由计算得到的汶川地震引起的应力变化以及过去10年观测到的背景地震发生率,对该地区在未来10年内发生破坏性地震的概率以及可能的空间分布进行了预测。结果表明,研究区内在未来10年内发生M≥6级地震的概率为57％～71％,发生M≥7级地震的概率为8％～12％,是汶川地震前发震概率的2倍。     

Depth and region dependence of b-value for micro-aftershocks of the May 12th,2008 Wenchuan earthquake and its tectonic implications

Micro-aftershocks with magnitude range of 1.5?4 around the Wenchuan earthquake epicenter,the southern part of the Longmenshan fault zone,exhibit good frequency-magnitude linear relationships,thus enabling b-value analysis.The average b-value for micro-aftershocks of M1.5?4 from July to December of 2008 in our local study region is about 0.88,similar to the b-value for all aftershocks of M3.0?5.5 from May,2008 to May,2009 along the whole Longmenshan fault zone.The similarity between the local and regional b-...     

Sustained groundwater level changes and permeability variation in a fault zone following the 12 May 2008, Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

We analyse the groundwater level changes following the Wenchuan earthquake in three wells – NX, DZ and BBLY – located in the same fault zone, in the near field (distance of ~300 km from the epicentre). Co‐seismic falls in the water level and gradual recovery were recorded in these wells but with different recovery periods (from 200 days to more than 1600 days). The response of the groundwater level to Earth tides is used as a proxy to explore the permeability evolution. We found that the permeability increased in response to the Wenchuan earthquake in the three wells but with different post‐earthquake recovery processes. Only BBLY recovered to its pre‐earthquake value 260 days after the Wenchuan earthquake and remained stable. The permeability in NX returned to its pre‐earthquake value over a similar period but then continued to drop. The permeability in DZ returned to its pre‐earthquake value much quicker than that in the other two wells and remained stable below the pre‐earthquake value 200 days after the earthquake. This suggests that the groundwater level changes in the three wells were mainly caused by permeability changes. In the BBLY well, the unclogging/clogging of the fracture flow path mechanism may explain the permeability evolution, whereas mechanisms such as unclogging/clogging or the opening/closing of the fracture associated with blocking of the narrow fracture apertures appears to be responsible for the permeability evolution in the NX and DZ wells. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震孕震机理研究

本文用三维流变非连续变形与有限元相结合(DDA+FEM)的方法,在青藏高原及邻近地区三维构造块体相互制约的大背景中,考虑了龙门山断裂带东西两侧地势、地壳厚度和分层的明显变化,及断裂带东侧四川盆地及鄂尔多斯块体坚硬地壳阻挡的影响,通过用GPS资料做位移速率边界约束和震源机制约束,计算得到研究区的速度场和应力场与该地区GPS测量结果和震源机制分布结果基本一致.     

2008年5月12日汶川8．0级地震序列简介

据我国数字地震台网地震速报结果统计,2008年5月12日14时27分我国四川省汶川县发生8.0级地震后,截止至2008年5月31日,共纪录到4级以上余震190次(表1),其中4.0～4.9级地震160次;5.0～5.9级地震25次;6.0～6.9级地震5次;最大余震为25日16时21分青川6.4级地震.     

Intensity Retrieved from Public Monitoring Video——Cases from the May 12,2008,Wenchuan Earthquake

Macroseismic investigation is presented with a new potential means of investigation in the ＂digital age＂. In this paper we studied several cases in the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake with a view to exploring the feasibility of retrieving intensity, or even strong ground motion parameters, from public monitoring video which was originally deployed for security purposes. We used public monitoring video records from 44 sites across the meizoseismal region and its surroundings to estimate the intensity. By using the video from a bank in Dujiangyan, Sichuan Province and making the simple assumption that ground vibration is in the form of a propagating harmonic wave, we estimated that the local ground motion acceleration was 0.14g.