An inadvertent transport of the seeding material as a result of cloud modification

Successful seeding of clouds in weather modification experiments essentially depends on the seeding time and dynamics, amount of seeding material and location of the initial seeding area. In the present study, we focus on the influence of the initial seeding zone location on the transport of seeding agent material into the target cloud. In addition, the inadvertent transport of seeding material is analysed. During weather modification activities, a lot of seeding material can be transferred far from the seeding zone in a downwind direction. The primary motivation for this research was to prove this statement. We use a three-dimensional, mesoscale cloud-resolving model to achieve our goal. We performed sensitivity tests with respect to the distance between the mass centres of the initial seeding area and the cloud. Different seeding scenarios are analysed. Our principal findings are as follows: (1) For distances between the mass centres of the initial seeding area and the cloud below 2.5 km, all seeding agent material would be activated after a short time. For distances above 10 km, most of the seeding agent would remain inactivated, because horizontal transport of the seeding agent becomes more important than transport induced by the main updraft. For these scenarios, the seeding agent is injected in the cold peripheral part of the cloud. (2) Sensitivity tests show that the inactivated seeding agent would remain close to the seeding area if the seeding is performed below cloud base. This effect occurs even for large distances between the seeding area and the target cloud (>20 km) due to low-level convergence. Thus, this seeding method suppresses the inert seeding material from being transferred far from the seeding zone. (3) The complete seeding material stays inactivated if the seeding is performed between the ?8 and ?12°C isotherms in front of the increased reflectivity zone. As a consequence, it would be transferred far from its initial area. The cloud would not be able to capture the seeding agent even during its greatest lateral extent.     

Dependence of the simulated seeding effects of Cb cloud on the types of the AgI agents

Summary A one-dimensional kinematic model is used to investigate the effects of silver iodide seeding in the region of a Cb cloud between isotherms of –8°C and –12°C. The agent interaction with cloud atmosphere is simulated by an improved microphysical model version which includes phoretic processes. The behaviour of the different agent types is investigated using the maximum values of agent mixing ratios and corresponding agent particle masses and radii.It is shown that the agent residence time in the seeding zone significantly depends on vertical velocity. The residence time is comparable to that previously reported. On the other side, the final graupel production decreases slightly when vertical velocity increases, while the corresponding graupel production is quite different for agents used. The main agent nucleation mechanisms are the Brownian coagulation of cloud droplets, inertial impact of cloud droplets and deposition nucleation.With 9 Figures     

Roll Vortices in the Boundary Layer Caused by a Concave Wind Profile: A Theoretical Study

The present study solves a two-layer atmospheric wave equation model with a lower atmosphere concave wind profile and cold-air outbreak over sea, while simultaneously proving that such a wind shear may cause neutral boundary layer roll vortices in the presence of disturbing sources upstream. Without thermal effects, the wind shear-induced waves have band structures at the top of the boundary layer that are similar to cloud street patterns observed over sea. This study proves that dynamic and thermal effects can act independently to initiate the roll vortices in the lower atmosphere. At the same time, a quantitative comparison shows that dynamic effects play a large role in the formation of roll vortices in the initial stage of cold-air outbreak and will be surpassed by thermal effects soon after surface heating commences.     

The 3-D model characteristics of a Cb cloud which moves along a valley

Summary The three-dimensional cloud-resolving mesoscale model is used to simulate an individual Cb cloud in condition of real orography. We have conducted our numerical experiments over an area known as hail bearing clouds source. Once formed such clouds regenerate and propagate along the valley if the shallow layer of strong wind shear exists. The orographic effects on model Cb cloud are recognized through comparison of simulated cloud characteristics with those calculated for the flat terrain. Sensitivity experiments with respect to the wind shear layer depth are also conducted.Our results demonstrate the model capability to simulate well some observational Cb cloud characteristics. It is shown that the river valley is of essential importance for Cb cloud development. The most prominent features of the model cloud in this case are as follows: fast propagation along the river valley; considerable depth of the cold air nose with pronounced pulsation mechanism and intense cell regeneration at the leading edge of cold air outflow. Model and observed radar reflectivities in the vertical cross-section are in agreement. Some characteristics of surface cumulative rain precipitation are also well reproduced by the model. In contrast with the real orography case, the model cloud is more intense and it propagates freely in lateral direction for the flat terrain. The cell regeneration associated with forced updraft above the cold air nose is not pronounced in contrast with earlier considerations. Reflectivity pattern near the ground, having mainly bat-like wings, encircles much larger area with altitude compared to the case of real orography. Finally, the model cloud characteristics depend strongly on shear layer.Received June 2002; revised August 22, 2002; accepted October 1, 2002 Published online: April 10, 2003     

Forecast of convective storms evolution based on the analysis of their radar echo and wind hodograph in the troposphere in the moving coordinate system

Generalized are the results of the research carried out by the Special Service for Weather Modification of the Republic of Moldova and of the features of formation and evolution of cumulonimbus clouds Cb based on studying their radar echo in the Lagrange (moving) coordinate system. Besides the regularities proceeding from the ideas about the evolution of Cb on the sides of atmospheric mesoscale structures [16], the features of evolution of powerful Cb are revealed at the significant wind shear. The direction and evolution features of Cb can be predicted using the wind hodograph in the troposphere plotted in the moving coordinate system. Results of the research are used in the Special Service for Weather Modification of the Republic of Moldova during the operational activities on hail suppression for predicting the areas of formation of new convective cells and for optimizing the size of the areas for their seeding with the crystallizing reagent.     

VORTEX MOTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER

Large vortices with scales ranging from hundreds meters to tens of kilometers are generallyfound in the atmospheric convective boundary layer(CBL).These vortices play important roles in the vertical transport of momentum,heat,water vaporand other tracers in the boundary layer.On the basis of the view of interaction between theconvection in CBL and the gravity waves in the upper stable layer the authors developed aconvection-wave theory on the formation of large vortices.According to the theory thewavenumber spectrum of the large vortices mainly depends on the atmospheric conditions in bothof the upper and lower layers,such as wind speed,wind direction shear,stratification as well astemperature jump.In the present paper satellite image and weather data in a case of cold air outbreak over warmocean are analyzed to study every stage of the convective processes,such as cloud street,convective cell as well as their transformation.According to the theory the wavenumbercompositions for cloud street and convective cell are calculated,respectively,on the basis of theatmospheric conditions at every stage.The distributions of vertical motions,convergent band anddisturbed interface are obtained and compared with the cloud patterns in the convective processes.Thus the study seems to offer a likely explanation for the origin of large vortices in CBL.     

VORTEX MOTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERM*

Large vortices with scales ranging from hundreds meters to tens of kilometers are generally found in the atmospheric convective boundary layer(CBL).These vortices play important roles in the vertical transport of momentum,heat,water vapor and other tracers in the boundary layer.On the basis of the view of interaction between the convection in CBL and the gravity waves in the upper stable layer the authors developed a convection-wave theory on the formation of large vortices.According to the theory the wavenumber spectrum of the large vortices mainly depends on the atmospheric conditions in both of the upper and lower layers,such as wind speed,wind direction shear,stratification as well as temperature jump.In the present paper satellite image and weather data in a case of cold air outbreak over warm ocean are analyzed to study every stage of the convective processes,such as cloud street,convective cell as well as their transformation.According to the theory the wavenumber compositions for cloud street and convective cell are calculated,respectively,on the basis of the atmospheric conditions at every stage.The distributions of vertical motions,convergent band and disturbed interface are obtained and compared with the cloud patterns in the convective processes.Thus the study seems to offer a likely explanation for the origin of large vortices in CBL.     

Numerical simulation of Cb cloud vorticity

Vertical vorticity characteristics within individual cumulonimbus (Cb) cloud moving over complex terrain are investigated by cloud-resolving mesoscale model. Orography impact on vorticity is recognized by comparison of its characteristics within the storm moving over flat terrain under the same other conditions. In present study, two cases are considered: complex terrain case (referred to as CT case) and flat terrain case (referred to as FT case). A sensitivity study shows that orographical effects on vorticity are important. Main findings are:

– For CT case vortices produced by convective tilting of horizontal vortices are closer to each other and more stretched in form owing to valley configuration. The vortex with positive vorticity is mainly stronger in magnitude compared to its negative counterpart.

– Magnitudes of vorticities for CT case are greater at lowest levels and initial time intervals compared to those for FT case.

– For CT case the vortices with opposite signs of vorticity produced by precipitation appear later than in FT case. Their duration is shorter and they are weaker in intensity compared to those formed within a cloud over flat terrain.

– Complex terrain intensifies the splitting of simulated cloud.

大气对流边界层中的涡漩结构

大气边界层中存在尺度从几百米到几十公里的大涡漩运动。它们在边界层中动量、热量、水汽等垂直输送中起重要作用。作者从边界层中对流和上部稳定层中波动相互作用的观点，发展得出大涡结构的对流波动理论。根据此理论，大涡的波谱构成主要由上、下层大气中风向、风速、层结以及两层之间的温度跃变等因素决定。本文根据卫星云图和天气资料分析了一次冷空气爆发流经暖洋面上形成云街、对流单体以及它们之间的相互演化的过程，并用对流波动理论，依据各阶段的大气条件计算出它们的波数构成，并得出了垂直速度、辐合带、界面扰动的分布，解释了云街、对流单体的形成、结构及相互转化的原因     

碘化银播撒对云和降水影响的中尺度数值模拟研究

通过在WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) 中尺度天气数值模式中引入碘化银与云相互作用过程, 建立了中尺度播撒碘化银数值模式。研究了碘化银播撒对于中尺度对流天气过程中云和降水的影响, 研究了不同播撒部位、 播撒时间和播撒剂量情况下碘化银的扩散、 传输及其对云中水成物和降水量的影响。研究结果表明, 碘化银在云中的扩散传输过程与播撒的位置有很大关系, 在最大上升气流区播撒的碘化银能随着气流更快地扩散到云体上部过冷水含量丰富的区域, 播撒在云上层入流区和云下层入流区的碘化银扩散到云中过冷水区需要时间更长, 同时有大部分停留在云体边缘。碘化银能与云中过冷水相互作用, 消耗过冷水使云中冰晶数浓度明显增加, 从而使霰粒子转化减少, 过冷水更多地转化为雪粒子, 过冷水凝结释放出潜热使上升气流增强, 促进了对流发展。由于雨水含量的增加, 地面降水也出现增加。碘化银播撒率对地面降水量影响很大, 当播撒率为0.6 g/s时, 播撒对降水的影响时间超过4小时, 增雨的效果更好。播撒率为0.1 g/s时增雨效果不明显, 当播撒率为1.2 g/s 时, 对总降水可能出现抑止作用。对比碘化银播撒率为0.6 g/s时12小时地面增雨量, 在云上层入流区播撒碘化银试验中, 地面增雨量比对最大过冷水含量区的催化试验提高了48.7%, 最大上升气流区播撒试验增雨效果最好, 地面增雨量比在最大过冷水区域播撒提高了72.1%。     

Idealized numerical simulation experiment of ice seeding in convective clouds using a bin microphysics scheme

A 2D axisymmetric bin model is used to conduct idealized numerical experiments of cloud seeding. The simulations are performed for two clouds that differ in their initial wind shear. Results show that, although cloud seeding with an ice concentration of 1000 L^?1 in a regime that has relatively high supercooled liquid water can obtain a positive effect, the rainfall enhancement seems more pronounced when the cloud develops in a wind shear environment. In no-shear environment, the change in the microphysical thermodynamic field after seeding shows that, although more graupel is produced via riming and this can increase the surface rainfall intensity, the larger drag force and cooling of melting graupel is unfavorable for the development of cloud. On the contrary, when the cloud develops in a wind shear environment, since the main downdraft is behind the direction of movement of the cloud, its negative effect on precipitation is much weaker.摘要本文采用二维轴对称分档云模式开展了人工催化数值试验, 对两种不同初始风切变的对流云进行了模拟. 结果表明, 尽管在过冷水相对较高的区域播撒 1000 L^?1 的冰晶可以增加地面降水, 但当云在风切变环境中发展时, 人工播撒对降雨增强的作用似乎更加明显. 在无切变环境下, 微物理量, 热力场的变化表明播撒后大量的霰所产生的拖曳力和融化冷却有可能切断主上升气流, 从而不利于云的发展. 相反, 当云在风切变环境中发展时, 由于播撒产生的主下沉气流位于云的运动方向之后, 其对降水的负面影响要弱得多.     

河北省冬季低槽冷锋层状云结构特征和可播性分析

2018年1月6日河北省出现一次低槽冷锋天气系统,利用两次云粒子垂直探测资料分析层状云结构特征和演化规律,探讨冬季低槽冷锋系统层状云催化条件和催化时机.结果表明:天气系统初期西南风风速中心发生在6500 m高空时,风速随高度呈不连续分布,层状云云顶温度为-29.2℃,中低云层稀薄;3000 m以上云层粒子基本被冰化,云...     

On formation of convective roll vortices by internal gravity waves: A theoretical study

Summary The linearized atmospheric equations system is solved analytically in a two layer model. The solutions show that the thermal disturbance located at the interface can induce internal gravity wave, which propagates downstream in the stable layer and brings about flow disturbances in the lower unstable layer. Motion of roll vortices with flow pattern similar to that found in the convective cloud street forms in the lower part of the upper layer and the upper part of the lower layer. If proper content of water vapor exists the cloud lines presenting small angle with the mean wind appear at the top of the lower layer. The effects of the wind speed and the temperature structures of the atmosphere in the lower convective layer and the overlying stable layer on the characteristics of the roll vortices are also discussed in this study.With 7 Figures     

基于LAPS资料的一次冰雹过程数值催化模拟研究

基于3维冰雹云模式,采用局地分析预报系统高时空分辨率分析场作为初始场,对鄂西北地区2009年4月15日发生的一次降雹天气过程进行数值模拟,分析了强对流发展过程的流场、雷达回波、水成物粒子演变特征以及催化机制。研究表明:基于高时空分辨率资料的3维冰雹云模式,能够较好地模拟冰雹云的形成发展演变及人工催化后微物理过程响应。模式输出的雷达回波强度及回波顶高与雷达实测资料相近,最大反射率因子分别为70 dBz、65 dBz,强回波中心基本上位于6~7 km处。冰雹云发展过程中呈现典型的低层辐合、高层辐散特征,消亡过程流场相反;冰雹胚胎形成主要源于冻滴自动转化,碰并云水和雨水促进冰雹增长;不同时间、不同剂量的催化对于防雹效果差异显著,催化时间越早,催化剂量越大,效果越好。     

过冷层状云中飞机播云有效区域的模拟研究

根据飞机人工增雨作业个例 ,利用层状云中催化剂输送扩散的三维时变模式 ,对过冷层状云中播云产生的有效区域、催化剂水平输送和扩散速率等进行了模拟研究。结果表明 :(1)飞机播云 4 5min线长 32 7km ,投影有效面积和有效体积在播云刚结束时 (5 0分 )达到极大 ,其值分别为 70 7km2 和 2 98.0km3 ,有效扩展宽度和厚度为 2 .5 1km和 0 .4 2km ;(2 )有效作用时段为 2 0～ 80min ,其间的投影有效面积平均值为 5 13.3km2 ,平均有效扩展宽度和厚度分别为 2 .4 1km和 0 .4 5km ;(3)在扩散作用下 ,投影有效面积和有效体积先随时间不断增加 ,达到极值后逐渐减小 ,播云结束 (5 5分 )后 ,云中的有效区域消失 ,其间的投影有效面积平均值为 389.7km2 ,平均有效扩展宽度和厚度分别为 2 .34km和 0 .4 4km ;(4)云中催化剂水平输送 1h的平均值达到 6 5km ,仅与风场有关。催化剂扩散速率 1h平均为 0 .82m/s,与风、温、湍流有关 ;(5 )在飞机增雨作业时 ,飞行方案的设计必须是严格科学的 ,以便进一步提高人工增雨的实效     

夏季催化对流云雷达回波特征对比分析

对"江淮地区对流云人工增雨外场试验"中3次催化作业过程,催化云和对比云新一代天气雷达回波特征的对比分析结果表明:催化云的平均维持时间比对比云长51.2%,平均回波面积比对比云多17%,催化云每个体扫的平均总液态含水量要高于对比云,整个维持时间的总液态含水量高出对比云46%.从而认为:催化作业可以达到增加回波面积,延长回波的持续时间,增加云中液态含水量的目的.并且,从其中一组对比中发现,对流云催化作业要掌握好催化时机,对于处在减弱期的对流云,催化作业达不到增加含水量、延长生命期的目的.     

Tendencies for the amounts of chemical material used for cloud seeding in Serbia

Weather modification activities are performed predominantly by cloud seeding. Some operational projects have been performed for more than half a century and cover planetary scales. These activities lead to a large amount of deposited chemical materials (seeding agents) at the ground level during precipitation. These deposits depend on the amount of the seeding agent. In the future, increased amounts of seeding agent deposits could be a serious problem due to various negative effects on the human environment. Therefore, the main intent of this paper is to determine trends for the seeding agent amount over certain areas of Serbia. Four areas covered by the Hail Suppression Project in Serbia are considered: the target area in central Serbia and areas in western and central Serbia, which are well-known hailfall regions. The annual seeding agent amounts show a slow decreasing trend because fewer seedings were performed during the last decade of the last century, which was due to economic reasons. In contrast, the annual seeding agent amounts of the other analysed areas indicate an increasing trend induced by the transfer of rockets to these hailfall regions. The main difference among small areas is the mean agent amount and its maximum time position as a consequence of the high spatial and time variability of the hail. However, a sharp decreasing trend that is influenced by the implementation of new methodologies, seeding agents and delivery tools may also be a factor in the implementation of cloud seeding projects. The given method is not only strictly applicable locally and may be applied to any other cloud seeding scenario and seeding area. Dominantly increasing trends in the agent amount indicate that the importance of weather modifications in the future will be greater than ever and will have both positive and negative effects.     

层状云人工增雨机制、条件和方法的探讨

该文提出了新的层状云人工增雨机制，指出人工冰晶除通过贝吉隆过程使过冷云水转化为降水外，还使一部分冰面过饱和水汽转化为降水，凝华潜热的释放导致空气增温和局部升速加大，促进云降水的发展。与此相应提出了适合人工增雨的云层条件、监测识别方法以及最佳催化部位、药剂、剂量等。     

Factors affecting boundary-layer wind shear over the Indian Ocean during FGGE

Statistics on the vertical wind shear in the boundary layer over the Indian Ocean were examined for the causes of regional and seasonal changes. Low-level cloud motions and surface ship wind reports were used to define the vertical shear. Temperature data from the ship reports were analyzed for boundary-layer stability related to the observed shears. Smaller wind shears were found in areas of large negative air-sea temperature difference (unstable boundary layers). The thermal wind effects were very small over most of the tropical Indian Ocean. The largest factor affecting the speed shear was the strength of the wind itself. Larger speed shear was found under high wind conditions. A small reduction in the direction difference between cloud and ship observations also was found under higher speeds. The scatter of cloud-ship comparisons around the mean (dispersion) also decreased for higher wind speeds. Daily gridded cloud motion and ship wind speed data had a correlation coefficient of 0.8 with a scatter of 1.9 m s^-1 (r.m.s.) around the mean difference.     

Changes of cloud microphysical properties during the transition from supercooled to mixed-phase conditions during CIME

A ground-based seeding experiment using carbon dioxide and propane sprayed from pressurized bottles was carried out under supercooled cloud conditions on a small spatial and short time scale. Water vapor deposition on the artificially generated dry ice and propane ice germs as the main ice formation process (nucleation and growth) is consistent with the experimental results. After nucleation, diffusional growth of the ice particles, partly at the expense of evaporating small droplets, was identified during the mixing of the seeding line with the ambient supercooled cloud. Within the seeding plume, ice water contents up to 80% of the total condensed water are observed, although the size of the formed ice particles did not exceed 25 μm. From the changes of the ice and supercooled liquid phase with time under mixed-phase conditions, liquid water content (LWC) evaporation, ice water content (IWC) formation, and ice crystal growth rates are estimated, which are not affected by the artificial nucleation process. Thus, these rates are assessed to be applicable for a growing ice phase of small ice particles in a young mixed-phase cloud, where other growth mechanisms, like riming or aggregation, are negligible.