Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.

     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.     

Impact of spatial correlation of ground motions on seismic damage for residential buildings in Bucharest,Romania

Natural Hazards - This paper focuses on the investigation of seismic risk for residential buildings situated in Bucharest, the capital city of Romania. With a population of nearly 2 million...     

Patterns and trends in the perception of seismic risk. Case study: Bucharest Municipality/Romania

This research looks at the very nature of perception of seismic risk, an issue that is not only academically important, but also it can save lives and reduce injury and community costs. The background idea is that citizens in big cities, vulnerable to seismic hazard are living with latent and permanent concerns about a possible earthquake. We were interested in revealing significant aspects of Bucharest citizens’ orientations and tendencies in relation to the possible seismic event. Bucharest, the capital of Romania, is exposed to the greatest seismic hazard compared with other European capitals. The dimensions of study were: the anticipations of seism occurrence, the behavior during the event, evaluations of consequences, support factors, and individual vulnerability. This article is an example of the low cost approach on a sample of 190 citizens, understood as an exercise in attempting to relate population characteristics to various aspects of risk perception. The methodology used was based on a field investigation, where the research agents’ applied one questionnaire containing free/post codified/fan answers concerning: demographic variables, the buildings’ features, and perceptions about the possible earthquake event. The findings of this study showed that the hazard perception significantly associates with aspects concerning the subjects’ orientation toward institutional factors/human relations/negativism, and toward financial/material/moral support in case of disaster etc. It is hoped that this issue will serve to inspire further investigations into this very important and socially sensitive field, due to the fact that hazard analysis and mitigation would be more effective when it takes into account the human dimension of disasters.     

Multi-criteria vulnerability analysis to earthquake hazard of Bucharest, Romania

The expansive infrastructure, along with the high population density, makes cities highly vulnerable to the severe impacts of natural hazards. In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, the need for evaluating and visualizing the vulnerability of urban areas becomes a necessity in helping practitioners and stakeholders in their decision-making processes. The paper presented is a piece of exploratory research. The overall aim is to develop a spatial vulnerability approach to address earthquake risk, using a semi-quantitative model. The model uses the analytical framework of a spatial GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. For this approach, we have chosen Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, based on its high vulnerability to earthquakes due to a rapid urban growth and the advanced state of decay of the buildings (most of the building stock were built between 1940 and 1977). The spatial result reveals a circular pattern, pinpointing as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a meadow and river terrace, and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic conditions). In a sustainable development perspective, the example of Bucharest shows how spatial patterns shape the ??vulnerability profile?? of the city, based on which decision makers could develop proper prediction and mitigation strategies and enhance the resilience of cities against the risks resulting from the earthquake hazard.     

Social vulnerability and seismic risk perception. Case study: the historic center of the Bucharest Municipality/Romania

Social vulnerability is as much a part of risk as building damage, hazard magnitude, and economic loss. Social vulnerability refers to the capacity of a human community exposed during the impact of a natural hazard event (in this case, an earthquake) to resist, cope with, and recover from that impact. In the perspective of the 3rd millennium, we come to understand that the most efficient and accessible way to reduce the pressure of natural risks is to reduce the vulnerability level of the human communities exposed to that certain hazard. This study aims to test, in an exposed and vulnerable area, the relationship between social vulnerability and the perception of the seismic risk. The research focuses only on the first level of social vulnerability, defined as the ability of an individual within a household to recover from a natural hazard impact (Dwyer et al. 2004). A prevailing assumption was that social vulnerability influences the level of perception of the seismic risk, in an exposed, vulnerable area. To this end, two samples were used, different under the aspect of social vulnerability, in the context of the same residential area. Social vulnerability was computed as a normalized composed index that includes the poverty ratio and the demographic vulnerability ratio (depending on the age, gender, and education level indicators). The statistical processing has indicated a significant difference in the high perception level for the two samples that were compared, in the sense that in the context of an increased level of social vulnerability, people generally better acknowledge the seismic risk.

Toponymy and the Communist city: Street names in Bucharest, 1948–;1965

Past studies of the Socialist/Communist city have paid only limited attention to the ways in which Communist regimes mobilised a wide variety of symbols in the urban landscape in order to legitimate and institutionalise the ideology of revolutionary socialism. This paper considers the role of street names in this process with particular reference to Bucharest, Romania during the 1948–1965 period. When the Communist regime came to power it embarked on widespread renaming of streets as one means of both `decommemorating' the pre-socialist regime and proclaiming the agenda and ideology of the Communist state. The new street names commemorated a variety of events and personalities from the history of Romanian and Soviet Communism. The impact of street names was amplified further through practices such as multiple namings and the spatial clustering of street names of high ideological resonances. The paper argues that Bucharest's street names can be `read' as a mirror of ideological change, changing constructions of national identity, and Romania's macro-political orientation (especially its changing relations with the Soviet Union).     

Evaluation of site amplification, structural dynamic characteristics, and structural vulnerability rating of the city of Aqaba

The potential to destroy any structure during earthquakes depends on the structural design, vulnerability rating, percentage of structural elongation as compared with the natural quiet conditions, the dynamic characteristics of structure itself, as well as the dynamic characteristics of the site. Thus, factors related to the dynamic characteristics of structure and the dynamic characteristics of the site are necessary in the design of resistant structures against earthquakes. In this study, recordings of free oscillation were made directly on 18 selected structures in the urban city of Aqaba, which represent the structural culture of the city and the whole Jordan in general. Ground ambient vibration records were conducted at 18 nearby location at a few meters away from each structure. Records were conducted during the maximal cultural activities using three-component seismometer of 2 Hz free oscillation. Analytical results of records obtained on structures, has given the following equation: $ f = {18}/N $ , where f, is the fundamental mode of structure and N, is the number of stories. All structural records were conducted at the top level of each structure except at Shmesani 4 and 7. Horizontal sensors were oriented with respect to the longitudinal and transverse direction of structural horizontal projection. Damping factors for each structural longitudinal and transverse fundamental mode were calculated based on the obtained FFT spectrums of each orientation using half-width band method. Analysis of obtained records on structures in Aqaba show that most of them are of short periodic structures except a few multi-story tall buildings. Most of the results obtained on structures refer to damping factors that range between 0.05 and 0.208. Mathematical relation derived from this study above, in addition to the actual calculated damping factor, refers to non-compliance with the standards of earthquake-resistant design. Results of ground records analysis indicate to the westward and north-westward decrease of dominant frequency relative to the eastern and southeastern part of the study area, where the crystalline granite bedrock is much shallower reflecting the actual condition of surface geology. Striking that the H/V amplification was relatively higher in the scope of areas where the thicknesses of soft surface deposits in the eastern and southeastern part are much shallower relative to the western and north-western part of the study area. This can be interpreted as a result of much higher impedance contrast in the eastern and southeastern part relative to the western and northwestern parts of the study area.     

Some source and medium properties of the Vrancea seismic region, Romania

Simple spectral theory of seismic sources was used to determine source parameters directly related to medium properties (stress drop, seismic efficiency and fracture energy) and quality factors of the Vrancea (Romania) seismic region. The results show an increase in maximum static stress drop, maximum seismic efficiency and fracture energy with depth. The seismic efficiency is magnitude independent, but the stress drop is magnitude independent only for events with M_L > 3.8; below this value, the logarithm of stress drop increases quasi-linearly with magnitude. In the depth interval 50–160 km the stress drop increases with a slope of about 2–3 bar/km. The fracture energy per unit area of the fault has values of the order of 10⁵–10⁸ erg/cm².The frequency independent quality factors indicate that the attenuation of P waves is generally higher than that of S waves and that Q_p values are in agreement with recent tectonic models for the Vrancea region: total decoupling of the slab now sinking gravitationally is present only in the southwestern part of the Vrancea region, as suggested by the spatial position of intermediate depth hypocenters.     

Estimation of site amplification functions in Gujarat region, India

Site response in the Gujarat region is studied using local earthquake data recorded at 32 sites spread all over Gujarat region, India. Out of these 32 sites, 15 sites are located in Kachchh region, 8 in Saurashtra and 9 in mainland Gujarat region. These sites are underlain by different types of rocks/sediments of different ages. Out of 32 stations, 7 stations are on Quaternary deposits, 6 on Tertiary, 11 on Deccan, 3 on Jurassic, 3 on Cretaceous and 2 on Proterozoic rocks. The predominant frequencies at these sites depend strongly on the local geology. The average predominant frequencies of the sites on Quaternary sediments are 2.4?Hz, 5.3?Hz on Tertiary, 7.5?Hz on Jurassic, 7.2?Hz on Deccan, 4.6?Hz on Cretaceous and 7.5?Hz on Proterozoic formations. The average site amplification values at predominant frequencies are 3.7 for the sites of Quaternary deposits, 3.3 for Tertiary, 3.3 for Cretaceous rock, 4.2 for Deccan trap, 4.1 for Jurassic sites and 4.6 for Proterozoic. The damage to the houses during 2001 Bhuj earthquake is compared with the amplification at predominant frequencies at those sites. The spatial variation of predominant frequencies and the site amplifications at different frequencies corresponding to the natural frequencies of different storey buildings are studied, which will be useful in the evaluation of seismic hazard in the region.     

Magnetic and seismic refraction survey for site investigation of an urban expansion site in Abha District,Southwest Saudi Arabia

Arabian Journal of Geosciences - Ground magnetic and seismic refraction survey is carried out on an urban extension site in the southwest of Ahud Rufeidah town, southwest Saudi Arabia. The purpose...     

Soil height randomness influence on seismic response: Case of an Algiers site

The paper deals with the effect of the depth to bedrock randomness on the seismic response of an Algiers site in time and frequency domains. Stochastic soil profile seismic analysis is carried out via Monte Carlo simulations coupled to the stiffness matrix method. The soil height is assumed to be a random variable with a log-normal distribution. The stochastic behavior of extreme ground acceleration and its response spectrum, transfer function, fundamental frequency, maximum amplitude, short- and mid-period amplification factors are derived from 1000 samples, as a parametric study is performed accounting for the influence of the coefficient of variation of the depth to bedrock. As the study herein considers a SH wave propagation pattern (SH stands for shear horizontal), the accelerations under study correspond to the E–W and N–S horizontal directions. The seismic acceleration corresponds to the Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 21, 2003, M_w = 6.5). The probability density functions of the output parameters are derived using the maximum entropy principle, and compared to the log-normal distribution.The soil height heterogeneity causes an increase in the fundamental frequency of the soil profile, as well as a wider frequency content, in such a way that a larger number of structures are concerned by the resonance phenomenon.     

Trace elements distribution in stream sediments of an abandoned U mining site in the Eastern Carpathians,Romania, with particular focus on REEs

Trace elements distribution, including rare earth elements (REEs), in stream sediments of an abandoned U mining site in the Eastern Carpathians, Romania, were of high concern of interest in the present work. A total number of 40 riverbed sediments samples collected from the Bistricioara River and local tributaries (Primatar, Bradul, Prisacani, Barasau, Grintiesul Mare and Valea Seaca) were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF). All REEs including La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb and Lu were identified and quantified in the present work using ICP-MS technique. For other 24 elements (Ti, V, Cr, Co, Zn, Li, Be, Rb, Sr, Y, Sc, Zr, Nb, Sb, Ba, Ta, W, Pb, U, Ni, Cu, Mo, As, Th) similar information was obtained either by ICP-MS or XRF techniques. The impact and the relevance of the obtained data base might be significant at a local scale of about 50 km².Enrichments of some trace elements of interest in comparison to the upper continental crust allowed discrimination between various mineralization processes specific for the investigated areas. Uranium mineralization and Paltin-type (Pb, Zn) mineralization seems to be specific for the NW area of the investigated region. Negative anomaly characteristic for the upper crustal rocks was identified for Eu and Ce elements. Evidences were obtained also for the existence of ultramafic rocks (Ni, Cr, Co and V) in the investigated riverbed sediments. The observation was also confirmed by the binary plots analysis of Th/Cr vs. Th/Co and Cr/V vs. Y/Ni pairs. From the investigated tributaries to Bistricioara River, Barasau seems to exert the highest influence on the abundances of REEss in the entire area. Most probably some chemical parameters such as the pH of the water streams influence leaching and depletions of some chemical constituents in various minerals specific for the region.The existence of magnetite, garnets, pyrite and sillimanite minerals was confirmed by SEM-EDAX and XRF analysis, as well by optical microscopy. Principal Component Analysis runs confirmed the association of some chemical elements in the riverbed sediments in close connection with the minerals from which they originate.The present work reports for the first time upon the authors knowledge clear scientific evidence and chemical information concerning the geology and geochemistry, i.e. transition metals, high field strength elements, alkali and alkaline earth elements, rare earth elements (REEs) and others, in stream sediments crossing the Tulghes-Grinties mining area (Eastern Carpathians, Romania). For the analysed REEs this is the first study reporting consistent information on the concentrations of the entire array of both light REEs (six elements) and heavy REEs (ten elements) in Bistricioara Basin stream sediments. Relevant scientific data related to geochemical characteristics of ultramafic rocks existent in the investigated area were also generated. Moreover, data reported in the present work might be considered as a reference geochemical database relevant for the investigated area, which can be used as a trustworthy input for a systematic national geochemical atlas.     

Deterministic assessment of seismic risk in Constantine city,Northeast Algeria

Northern Algeria has experienced many destructive earthquakes throughout its history. The largest recent events occurred in El Asnam on October 10, 1980 (moment magnitude; Mw = 7.3), in Constantine on October 27, 1985 (surface-wave magnitude; Ms = 6.0), and in Zemmouri–Boumerdes on May 21, 2003 (Mw = 6.8). Because of the high population density and industrialization in these regions, the earthquakes had disastrous consequences and hence highlighted the vulnerability of Algeria to seismic events. To reduce seismic risk in Constantine, the capital city of East Algeria, we present a seismic risk scenario for this city, focusing on the vulnerability of the key historic areas of Coudia, Bellevue–Ciloc, and the Old City. This scenario allows us to assess the maximum ground acceleration using empirical attenuation laws, based on the following considerations: (a) the 1985 Constantine seismic event as an earthquake reference; (b) site effects related to regional geology; (c) damage to buildings, and (d) seismic vulnerability. This study shows the map of peak ground acceleration taking into account the effects of site lithology (Avib). We observe the strongest vibrations along the two rivers “Boumerzoug and Rhumel” and also, we note that the EC8 gives a good estimate acceleration in the image of the three studied areas (Bellevue–Ciloc, Coudia, and Old Town). By correlating with the geology, we observe an acceleration of 0.13 g in the neritic limestone of the rock (Old Town) something that fits with the value obtained 0.14 g (PGA) without taking into consideration the lithology. Moreover, according to the Algerian Earthquake Engineering Code (2003) (RPA), the Wilaya of Constantine is classified in the zone IIa (medium seismicity) with an acceleration data of 0.25 g. This study integrates geographic information system (GIS) data into risk models.

     

Deterministic assessment of seismic risk in Constantine city,Northeast Algeria

Northern Algeria has experienced many destructive earthquakes throughout its history. The largest recent events occurred in El Asnam on October 10, 1980 (moment magnitude; Mw = 7.3), in Constantine on October 27, 1985 (surface-wave magnitude; Ms = 6.0), and in Zemmouri–Boumerdes on May 21, 2003 (Mw = 6.8). Because of the high population density and industrialization in these regions, the earthquakes had disastrous consequences and hence highlighted the vulnerability of Algeria to seismic events. To reduce seismic risk in Constantine, the capital city of East Algeria, we present a seismic risk scenario for this city, focusing on the vulnerability of the key historic areas of Coudia, Bellevue–Ciloc, and the Old City. This scenario allows us to assess the maximum ground acceleration using empirical attenuation laws, based on the following considerations: (a) the 1985 Constantine seismic event as an earthquake reference; (b) site effects related to regional geology; (c) damage to buildings, and (d) seismic vulnerability. This study shows the map of peak ground acceleration taking into account the effects of site lithology (Avib). We observe the strongest vibrations along the two rivers “Boumerzoug and Rhumel” and also, we note that the EC8 gives a good estimate acceleration in the image of the three studied areas (Bellevue–Ciloc, Coudia, and Old Town). By correlating with the geology, we observe an acceleration of 0.13 g in the neritic limestone of the rock (Old Town) something that fits with the value obtained 0.14 g (PGA) without taking into consideration the lithology. Moreover, according to the Algerian Earthquake Engineering Code (2003) (RPA), the Wilaya of Constantine is classified in the zone IIa (medium seismicity) with an acceleration data of 0.25 g. This study integrates geographic information system (GIS) data into risk models.     

A GIS framework for evaluating the implications of urban road network failure due to earthquakes: Bucharest (Romania) case study

Through this paper we propose and test a GIS framework that addresses the issue of seismic risk due to urban road network failure. The approach relies on full GIS integration, on Monte Carlo simulations for generating potentially disrupted network configurations, considering also the damage probability due to direct earthquake implications, and on traffic considerations (both in typical and post-earthquake situations). The damage probability can be obtained using fragility functions for critical structures like bridges and tunnels or by determining empirically the possibility of affected buildings to generate debris leading to road obstruction. Multiple performance indicators such as travel time and distance under various conditions are combined, in order to quantify the risks inflicted by dysfunctionalities in the emergency intervention process. The framework considers at the same time temporal and spatial dimensions, being able to cope with traffic dynamics or reconfigurable network configurations. The ArcGIS Network Analyst Module is used for model integration, and full city scale analysis is performed in order to test the capabilities. Bucharest (capital of Romania) is selected for the case study; this 2 million inhabitant city is one of the most endangered in Europe, due to earthquakes that occur in the Vrancea Area, at intermediate depth, with moment magnitudes > 7, but also due to the vulnerable building stock. Beside this, it is one of Europe’s top cities when it comes to traffic congestion. The results of the study provide initial insights on the deficiencies of the city’s road network and connectivity limitations, showing the high impact of road obstructions and traffic congestion on intervention times, for ambulances and firefighters, in case of an earthquake.     

A GIS framework for evaluating the implications of urban road network failure due to earthquakes: Bucharest (Romania) case study

Through this paper we propose and test a GIS framework that addresses the issue of seismic risk due to urban road network failure. The approach relies on full GIS integration, on Monte Carlo simulations for generating potentially disrupted network configurations, considering also the damage probability due to direct earthquake implications, and on traffic considerations (both in typical and post-earthquake situations). The damage probability can be obtained using fragility functions for critical structures like bridges and tunnels or by determining empirically the possibility of affected buildings to generate debris leading to road obstruction. Multiple performance indicators such as travel time and distance under various conditions are combined, in order to quantify the risks inflicted by dysfunctionalities in the emergency intervention process. The framework considers at the same time temporal and spatial dimensions, being able to cope with traffic dynamics or reconfigurable network configurations. The ArcGIS Network Analyst Module is used for model integration, and full city scale analysis is performed in order to test the capabilities. Bucharest (capital of Romania) is selected for the case study; this 2 million inhabitant city is one of the most endangered in Europe, due to earthquakes that occur in the Vrancea Area, at intermediate depth, with moment magnitudes > 7, but also due to the vulnerable building stock. Beside this, it is one of Europe’s top cities when it comes to traffic congestion. The results of the study provide initial insights on the deficiencies of the city’s road network and connectivity limitations, showing the high impact of road obstructions and traffic congestion on intervention times, for ambulances and firefighters, in case of an earthquake.

     

Radionuclides transport at the site of a low- and intermediate-level waste repository,Saligny, Romania

The site of the future Saligny low- and intermediate-level waste repository presents a rather deep unsaturated zone consisting of a pile of loess and clay, underlain by a calcareous aquifer. Van Genuchten parameters were first estimated in laboratory on samples collected from all the horizons, at different depths. In a second kind of test, moisture parameters were estimated from the natural water content profiles, observed in some wells, by inversion of the unsaturated flow equation. Based on the solution of the inverse problem as well as of the sensitivity analyses a simple physical model of the vadose zone was determined, consisting of a layered sequence that was subjected to a constant infiltration flux. Radionuclide migration was simulated in a vertical cross section made along the most probable path from the repository towards the surface water discharge zone. For radionuclide release, a source term was evaluated by ensuring a conservative estimate of cell inventory during the cell-filling operation. According to the simulation results, for the medium half-life nuclides, the unsaturated zone is a perfect barrier, whereas the long half-life isotopes break through in the aquifer at significant concentrations.

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Resumen El sitio del futuro repositorio para desechos de nivel bajo e intermedio, denominado Saligny, presenta una zona no saturada bastante profunda, consistente en un depósito de loess y arcilla, subyacido por un acuífero calcáreo. Los parámetros de Van Genuchten se estimaron por primera vez en laboratorio, a partir de muestras recolectadas de todos los horizontes, a diferentes profundidades. En un segundo tipo de prueba se estimaron los parámetros de humedad a través de la inversión de la ecuación de flujo no saturado, a partir de los perfiles naturales que contienen agua, observados en algunos pozos. Con base en la solución del problema inverso, así como también en análisis de sensibilidad, se determinó un modelo físico simple de la zona vadosa, el cual consiste de una secuencia estratificada sometida a un flujo de infiltración constante. La migración del radioisótopo fue simulada en una sección vertical, hecha a lo largo del camino más probable entre el repositorio y la zona de descarga en el agua superficial. Para la liberación del radioisótopo se evaluó la fuente, asegurando un estimativo conservador del inventario de celdas durante la operación de llenado de celdas. De acuerdo con los resultados de la simulación, para los isótopos con vida media intermedia, la zona no saturada es una barrera perfecta; mientras que los isótopos con vida media larga irrumpen en el acuífero con concentraciones importantes.

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Résumé Le futur stockage de déchets radioactifs de faible et moyenne activité de Saligny est caractérisé par une zone non-saturée assez profonde qui consiste dans des dépôts de loess et dargile qui couvrent un aquifère calcaire. Dans une première étape, les paramètres de van Genuchten ont été déterminés en laboratoires sur des échantillons prélevés de toutes les couches, à des profondeurs différentes. Dans une seconde étape les mêmes paramètres ont été estimés, comme un solution du problème inverse à partir de profils de la saturation en eau, mesurés dans des forages. Les résultats du problème inverse, ainsi que l› analyse de sensibilité ont mené à un modèle multi- couches de la zone non-saturé, rechargé par un flux constant. On a simulé le transport des radionucléides dans une coupe verticale, construite au long du trajet le plus probable entre le stockage et les eaux de surface. Le flux de radionucléides relâchés a été estimé en considérant une valeur consevative pour la masse totale stocké. D› après les résultats de la simulation la zone non saturée forme une barrière presque parfaite pour les radionucléides de période moyenne, denvirons de 30 ans, tendis quelle est traversée avec des concentrations assez importantes par des isotopes à grande période.