Adaptive Conditioning of Multiple-Point Statistical Facies Simulation to Flow Data with Probability Maps

Multiple-point statistics (MPS) provides a flexible grid-based approach for simulating complex geologic patterns that contain high-order statistical information represented by a conceptual prior geologic model known as a training image (TI). While MPS is quite powerful for describing complex geologic facies connectivity, conditioning the simulation results on flow measurements that have a nonlinear and complex relation with the facies distribution is quite challenging. Here, an adaptive flow-conditioning method is proposed that uses a flow-data feedback mechanism to simulate facies models from a prior TI. The adaptive conditioning is implemented as a stochastic optimization algorithm that involves an initial exploration stage to find the promising regions of the search space, followed by a more focused search of the identified regions in the second stage. To guide the search strategy, a facies probability map that summarizes the common features of the accepted models in previous iterations is constructed to provide conditioning information about facies occurrence in each grid block. The constructed facies probability map is then incorporated as soft data into the single normal equation simulation (snesim) algorithm to generate a new candidate solution for the next iteration. As the optimization iterations progress, the initial facies probability map is gradually updated using the most recently accepted iterate. This conditioning process can be interpreted as a stochastic optimization algorithm with memory where the new models are proposed based on the history of the successful past iterations. The application of this adaptive conditioning approach is extended to the case where multiple training images are proposed as alternative geologic scenarios. The advantages and limitations of the proposed adaptive conditioning scheme are discussed and numerical experiments from fluvial channel formations are used to compare its performance with non-adaptive conditioning techniques.     

Application of mathematical and machine-computing methods to certain problems in geology and geophysics

Mathematical interpretation of data for computer (EDP) processing has not been studied, developed, and applied, as consistently in geology, as it has been applied to problems in seismology, seismic exploration, and oceanic hydroacoustics. The trend in “mathematical geology” is to reduce complex processes to simple models, thereby controlling the large number of accidental phenomena and statistically determining their relationships. The trend in geology is the construction and testing of expectancy models and development of “response-models” for processing experimental material by means of speeial program systems, e.g. for determining “geologic environment” and for analyzing paragenesis. -- IGR Staff.     

Bayesian model selection for complex geological structures using polynomial chaos proxy

Different interpretation of sedimentary environments lead to “scenario uncertainty” where the prior reservoir model has a high level of discrete uncertainty. In a real field application, the scenario uncertainty has a considerable effect on flow response uncertainty and makes the uncertainty quantification problem highly nonlinear. We use clustering methods to address the scenario uncertainty. Our approach to cluster analysis is based on the posterior probabilities of models, known as “Bayesian model selection.” Accordingly, we integrate overall possible parameters in each scenario with respect to their corresponding priors to give the measure of how well a model is supported by observations. We propose a cluster-based reduced terms polynomial chaos proxy to efficiently estimate the posterior probability density function under each cluster and calculate the posterior probability of each model. We demonstrate that the convergence rate of the reduced terms polynomial chaos proxy is significantly improved under each cluster comparing to the non-clustered case. We apply the proposed cluster-based polynomial chaos proxy framework to study the plausibility of three training images based on different geological interpretation of the second layer of synthetic Stanford VI reservoir. We demonstrate that the proposed workflow can be efficiently used to calculate the posterior probability of each scenario and also sample from the posterior facies models within each scenario.     

地质条件不确定性下TBM管片结构失事概率计算

不良地质条件是影响TBM施工隧洞管片结构安全的重要因素。综合考虑围岩地质条件和衬砌结构的不确定性,提出了一种定量分析TBM管片结构失事概率的新方法。在基于Markov过程估计隧洞沿程地质岩性变化概率的基础上,建立了隧洞任意位置处管片选型不匹配的概率模型;考虑围岩和管片参数的不确定性,采用随机有限元方法计算某一类型管片在不同围岩下的失事概率;由此,采用全概率公式,可计算隧洞沿程任意位置处管片结构的失事概率。结合实际工程,针对施工期工况,确定了该隧洞管片沿程的失事概率、最大失事概率及其所对应的位置等,为管片选型、优化设计及TBM施工期的风险防范提供了依据。     

东北地区主要矿山环境地质问题

东北地区是我国重要的矿业基地,矿山环境地质问题极为突出.从矿山环境地质问题表现形式上将其划分为土地资源破坏、环境污染和地质灾害3个类型.防治矿山环境地质问题应采用新技术、新方法、科学监测、建立地质灾害信息系统,制定矿区生态重建方案,倡导"绿色矿业".     

Mixing Deposition of Upper Carboniferous in Jiangshan, Zhejiang Province and its Tectonic Significance

<正>The Outangdi Formation in Jiangshan,Zhejiang,is the mixing deposit of terrigenous clastics and carbonates in Weiningian of the late Carboniferous.The mixing deposits include interbeddings, which constitute a series of alternated clastic and carbonate beds and mixing within the same bed which forms"hunji rock".The Outangdi Formation has the features of intercalated marine and terrestrial deposits with the progradational sequences,which are lower fine and upper coarse sedimentary granularity in the section.Hunji rock is formed in a seashore environment.It is a mixed carbonate sediment found in beaches or tideland facies with quartz sand taken from a bayou or beach by coastwise flow and circumfluence.There are two kinds of hunji sequences:(1) interbeds of sandstone and carbonate rock in seashore environments;and(2) interbeds of clastics in river facies and carbonate rock in ocean facies.It is indicated that mixing depositions belong to"facies mixing",affected mainly by regional tectonic uplift,rise of the global sea level,and the dynamics of water medium in the basin. Regional sea level periodic changes and progradational sequences probably resulted from the intense uplift of the old land called Cathaysia.The classification and name of mixed sediments are also discussed in the present study.Interbeds and alternated beds of clastic and carbonate beds are named"hunji sequence",a new genetic term.It is suggested that hunji rock means a special sediment event of mixing terrigenous clastics and carbonates instead of a name of a specific rock.     

FACIES,GENETIC TYPES,AND FORMATIONS

Interrelations of facies, genetic types, and formations are discussed. Fades is defined as geologic bodies represented by one or more rocks formed in a single physico-geographical environment different from that of the adjacent contemporaneous rocks. Genetic types are considered a geologic body representing a complex of genetically related facies originating in the same environment and mostly as the effect of a single leading process. A formation is a geologic unit representing a complex of genetic depositional types closely related and formed in the same tectonic and chromatic environment. Specific examples are presented to better classify the treatment of those controversial problems of nomenclature. --L.M. LeRoy.     

A probabilistic parametrization for geological uncertainty estimation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)

In the past years, many applications of history-matching methods in general and ensemble Kalman filter in particular have been proposed, especially in order to estimate fields that provide uncertainty in the stochastic process defined by the dynamical system of hydrocarbon recovery. Such fields can be permeability fields or porosity fields, but can also fields defined by the rock type (facies fields). The estimation of the boundaries of the geologic facies with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was made, in different papers, with the aid of Gaussian random fields, which were truncated using various schemes and introduced in a history-matching process. In this paper, we estimate, in the frame of the EnKF process, the locations of three facies types that occur into a reservoir domain, with the property that each two could have a contact. The geological simulation model is a form of the general truncated plurigaussian method. The difference with other approaches consists in how the truncation scheme is introduced and in the observation operator of the facies types at the well locations. The projection from the continuous space of the Gaussian fields into the discrete space of the facies fields is realized through in an intermediary space (space with probabilities). This space connects the observation operator of the facies types at the well locations with the geological simulation model. We will test the model using a 2D reservoir which is connected with the EnKF method as a data assimilation technique. We will use different geostatistical properties for the Gaussian fields and different levels of the uncertainty introduced in the model parameters and also in the construction of the Gaussian fields.     

From Cycles to Sequences:Sequence Stratigraphy and Relative Sea Level Change for the Late Cambrian of the North China Platform

In the Late Cambrian, the North China Platform was a typical carbonate ramp platform. The Upper Cambrian of the northern part of the North China Platform is famous for the development of bioherm limestones and storm calcirudites and can be divided from bottom to top into the Gushan, Changshan and Fengshan formations. In this set of strata, the deep-ramp mudstone and marls and the shallow-ramp packstones and grainstones constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of subtidal type. More tidal-flat dolomites axe developed in the Upper Cambrian of the southern margin of the North China platform, in which limestone and dolomite beds also constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of the peritidal type. These cycles are marked by a variety of litho-facies successions. There are regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles in long-term third-order sequences, which is the key to discerning such sequences. Third-order sequence is marked by a particular sedimentary-facies succession that is the result of the environment-changing process of deepening and shoaling, which is genetically related to third-order sea level changes. Furthermore, four third-order sequences can be grouped in the Upper Cambrian of the North China Platform. The main features of these four third-order sequences in the northern part of the platform can be summarized as follows: firstly, sequence-boundaries are characterized by drowning unconformities; secondly, the sedimentary-facies succession is generally constituted by one from deep-ramp facies to shallow-ramp facies; thirdly, a succession of “CS (?) HST” (i.e., “condensed section and highstand system”) forms these four third-order sequences. The chief features for the third-order sequences in the southern part of the North China Platform comprises: more dolomites are developed in the HSTs of third-order sequences and also developed more carbonate meter-scale cycles of peritidal types; the sedimentary-facies succession of the third-order sequences is marked by “shallow ramp-tidal flat”; the sequence boundaries are characterized by exposure punctuated surfaces. According to the changes for the third-order sequences from the north to the south, a regular sequence-stratigraphic framework can be established. From cycles to sequences, the study of sequence stratigraphy from litho-facies successions to sedimentary-facies successions exposes that as follows: meter-scale cycles that are used as the basic working unit actually are litho-facies successions formed by the mechanism of a punctuated aggradational cycle, and third-order sequences that are constituted by regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles are marked by sedimentary-facies successions. On the basis of the changing curve of water depth at each section, the curve of the relative third-order sea level changes in the late Cambrian of the North China Platform can be integrated qualitatively from changing curve of water depth. The correlation of Late Cambrian long-term sea level changes between North China and North America demonstrates that there are not only similarities but also differences, reflecting control of long-term sea level changes both by global eustacy and by regional factors.     

加强化工地质科技创新刍议

化工矿产地质队伍组建以来,科技工作曾获得一些成果,取得一定效益。随着地质勘查队伍企业化进程的加快,地质科技工作也出现一定的问题。现化工地质科技创新应着重做好:重点化工矿产资源成矿区带研究;重点矿种成矿理论及找矿方法的创新研究;老矿山、资源危机矿山外围及深部地质找矿工作、地质勘查技术方法研究;低品位、难利用资源的开发利用研究;加快地质工作信息化进程、开展对周边国家和地区化工矿产资源战略研究等工作。当前化工地质勘查队伍应深入贯彻落实《国务院关于加强地质工作的决定》,发挥优势,建设、壮大化工地质科技工作队伍,做好相关的工作,使化工地质科技创新发挥深远的作用。     

On the role of the Hercynian and Alpine thrusts in the Upper Paleozoic rocks of the Central and Eastern Pyrenees

Abstract

The structure of the Pyrenean pre-Hercynian rocks involved in the “Axial Zone” antiformal stack, results from the association of Hercynian cleavage-related folds and Hercynian and Alpine thrusts. Some of these Alpine and Hercynian thrusts separate thrust sheets in which Upper Paleozoic rocks, Devonian and pre-Hercynian Carboniferous, exhibit different lithostratigraphy and internal structure.

In order to know both, the original Devonian facies distribution and the structural characteristics, the effects of the Alpine and the Hercynian thrusts must be considered. If a conceptual restored cross-section is constructed taking into account both the Alpine and Hercynian thrusts, a different Devonian facies distribution is achieved. Devonian carbonatic successions were originally located in a northernmost position, whereas sequences made by alternations of slates and limestones lie in southernmost areas. Moreover, a N-S variation of the Hercynian structural style appears. In the northern units thrusts are synchronous to folding development and they are the most conspicuous structures. In the intermediate units, thrust postdate cleavage-related folds, and in the southernmost units several folding episodes, previous to the thrusts, are well developed.

We present some examples which enable us to discuss the importance of the Hercynian and Alpine thrusts in the reconstruction of the Pyrenean pre-Alpine geology.     

Earth's atmosphere – Hadean to early Proterozoic

The chemistry of Earth's atmosphere during its first 2–2.5 Ga bears on several branches of geoscience including the origin of prebiotic molecules and life itself, early surface processes, the “faint young sun” problem, carbon isotope systematics, and the transition to an oxidized surface. The geologic record, as sparse as it is for this era, presents several difficulties for attempts to model the atmosphere and its changes through time. The prevailing view for the past 50 years has centered around a moderately oxidized atmosphere of CO₂ and N₂, and most modeling efforts have been directed at reconciling geologic data, and atmospheric and chemical constraints, with such a composition. Improvements in modeling of early Earth processes and increased knowledge of Archean geology, including new geochemical methods and data, have largely helped support this view of the early atmosphere over the last 25 years, but have also left several nagging questions unanswered. How was a sufficient reservoir (and concentration) of prebiotic molecules produced? What were the major reservoirs for carbon, and how did they develop their isotopic signatures? Is there a solution to the problem of the “faint young sun”? Why was surface oxidation delayed following the advent of oxygenic photosynthesis? Lately, some attempts at answering these questions have suggested the importance of more reducing capacity at the early Earth's surface, but without abandoning the idea of a mainly CO₂–N₂ atmosphere. It may be that returning to ideas of the early atmosphere current during the 1940s and earliest 1950s could help resolve some of these problems. Such an approach may not only be consistent with the atmospheres of the other terrestrial planets, but may help answer significant questions about the surface history of Mars.     

Quantitative Geoscience and Geological Big Data Development: A Review

After long-term development, mathematical geology has today become an independent discipline. Big Data science, which has become a new scientific paradigm in the 21 st century, gives rise to the geological Big Data, i.e. mathematical geology and quantitative geoscience. Thanks to a robust macro strategy for big data, China’s quantitative geoscience and geological big data’s rapid development meets present requirements and has kept up with international levels. This paper presents China’s decade-long achievements in quantitative prediction and assessment of mineral resources, geoscience information and software systems, geological information platform development, etc., with an emphasis on application of geological big data in informatics, quantitative mineral prediction, geological environment and disaster management, digital land survey, digital city, etc. Looking ahead, mathematical geology is moving towards "Digital Geology", "Digital Land" and "Geological Cloud", eventually realizing China’s grand "Digital China" blueprint, and these valuable results will be showcased on the international academic arena.     

A generalized surrogate response aided-subset simulation approach for efficient geotechnical reliability-based design

This paper aims to develop an efficient geotechnical reliability-based design (RBD) approach using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed approach combines a recently developed MCS-based RBD approach, namely expanded RBD approach, with an advanced MCS method called “Subset Simulation (SS)” to improve the computation efficiency at small probability levels that are often concerned in geotechnical design practice. To facilitate the integration of SS and expanded RBD, a generalized surrogate response f is proposed to define the driving variable, which is a key parameter in SS, for expanded RBD of geotechnical structures (e.g., soil retaining structures and foundations). With the aid of the proposed surrogate response, failure probabilities of all the possible designs in a prescribed design space are calculated from a single run of SS. Equations are derived for integration of the surrogate response-aided SS and expanded RBD, and are illustrated using an embedded sheet pile wall design example and two drilled shaft design examples. Results show that the proposed approach provides reasonable estimates of failure probabilities of different designs using a single run of the surrogate response-aided SS, and significantly improves the computational efficiency at small probabilities levels in comparison with direct MCS-based expanded RBD. The surrogate response-aided SS is able to, simultaneously, approach the failure domains of all the possible designs in the design space by a single run of simulation and to generate more complete design information, which subsequently yields feasible designs with a wide range of combinations of design parameters. This is mainly attributed to the strong correlation between the surrogate response and target response (e.g., factor of safety) of different designs concerned in geotechnical RBD.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)

The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.     

Methods for probabilistic assessments of geologic hazards

Although risk analysis today is considered to include three separate aspects (1) identifing sources of risk, (2) estimating probabilities quantitatively, and (3) evaluating consequences of risk, here only estimation of probabilities for natural geologic events, processes, and phenomena is addressed. Ideally, evaluation of potential future hazards includes an objective determination of probabilities that have been derived from past occurrences of identical events or components contributing to complex processes or phenomena. In practice, however, data which would permit objective estimation of those probabilities of interest may not be adequate, or may not even exist.Another problem that arises normally, regardless of the extent of data, is that risk assessments involve estimating extreme values. Probabilities are required for events that are the greatest or rarest because they commonly will have the greatest consequences; the largest, or rarest, events always fall in tails of frequency distributions. Rarely are extreme values accurately predictable even when an empirical frequency distribution is established well by data.In the absence of objective methods for estimating probabilities of natural events or processes, subjective probabilities for the hazard must be established through Bayesian methods, expert opinion, or Delphi methods. Alternative solutions may involve consequence analysis which may demonstrate that, although an event may occur, its consequences are sufficiently small that it safely may be ignored or by establishing bounds which may demonstrate that although probabilities are not known they cannot exceed a maximum value that is sufficiently small so that associated risk may be considered to be negligible.Uncertainty of every probability determination must be stated for each component of an event, process, or phenomenon. These uncertainties also must be propagated through the quantitative analysis so that a realistic estimate of total uncertainty can be associated with each final probability estimate for a geologic hazard.This paper was presented (by title) at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

盆山转换与造盆、造山过程分析

盆地系统和造山带系统是大陆岩石圈上的两个主要构造单元,其包括地质历史中曾存在的和消失的盆地、大洋、大陆边缘及陆地。因此,盆山转换研究、探索盆转山和山控盆的过程则成为大陆地质的前沿研究领域。沉积地质学通过盆山转换和转换过程的分析研究,并以大陆边缘为主,对盆地分析、露头层序地层学研究,在盆地沉积相的时空配置和演化、大陆边缘转为前陆盆地过程中,分析海－陆环境在时空上的四个转换过程和自演化序列。盆山转换的另一关键是层序等时格架的建立。层序的等时性应包括层序界面（单一的和复合的界面）、层序和时间损失量。