Large-amplitude ground-motion recordings and their interpretations

Empirical recordings of ground motions featuring large amplitudes of acceleration or velocity play a key role in defining the maximum levels of ground motion required for the design of engineering projects, in view of their potentially very destructive nature. They also provide valuable insights as to the nature of the tails of the ground-motion distribution. The present paper reviews the interpretations put forward for a dataset of recordings selected for their large value of PGA (?1 g) or PGV (?100 cm/s), and attempts to classify causative physical processes according to a uniform nomenclature. The aim of the study is to identify to what extent large-amplitude ground motions are predictable, by separating scenarios that could generally be encountered and foreseen using current knowledge of the processes involved in earthquake ground-motion generation and propagation, such as particular features of the recording site, from occurrences that are related to unforeseeable characteristics of the source and path.     

Using Estimated Risk to Develop Stimulation Strategies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades, and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the generation of microseismicity through the shearing of pre-existing fractures or fault segments. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir through fluid injection against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. In this article we propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity of the previous 6 h with a (potentially site-specific) ground motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve; this is then convolved with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds, the injection is increased if the risk is below the amber level, decreased if the risk is between the amber and red levels, or stopped completely if the risk is above the red level. Based on simulations using a recently developed model of induced seismicity in geothermal systems, which is checked here using observations from the Basel EGS, in this article it is shown that the proposed procedure could lead to both acceptable levels of risk and increased permeability.     

Inferred ground motions on Guadeloupe during the 2004 Les Saintes earthquake

Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st November 2004 (M _w 6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects, which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained.     

Investigating strong ground-motion variability using analysis of variance and two-way-fit plots

A statistical method to quantitatively assess the relative importance of unmodelled site and source effects on the observed variability (σ) in ground motions is presented. The method consists of analysis of variance (ANOVA) using the computed residuals with respect to an empirical ground-motion model for strong-motion records of various earthquakes recorded at a common set of stations. ANOVA divides the overall variance (σ ²) into the components due to site and source effects (respectively σ _S ² and σ _E ²) not modelled by the ground-motion model plus the residual variance not explained by these effects (σ _R ²). To test this procedure, four sets of observed strong-motion records: two from Italy (Umbria-Marche and Molise), one from the French Antilles and one from Turkey, are used. It is found that for the data from Italy, the vast majority of the observed variance is attributable to unmodelled site effects. In contrast, the variation in ground motions in the French Antilles and Turkey data is largely attributable, especially at short periods, to source effects not modelled by the ground-motion estimation equations used.     

Ground motion prediction equations based on shallow crustal earthquakes in Georgia and the surrounding Caucasus

Strong ground motions caused by earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 3.5 to 6.9 and hypocentral distances of up to 300 km were recorded by local broadband stations and three-component accelerograms within Georgia’s enhanced digital seismic network. Such data mixing is particularly effective in areas where strong ground motion data are lacking. The data were used to produce models based on ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), one benefit of which is that they take into consideration information from waveforms across a wide range of frequencies. In this study, models were developed to predict ground motions for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudo-absolute-acceleration spectra for periods between 0.01 and 10 s. Short-period ground motions decayed faster than long-period motions, though decay was still in the order of approximately 1/r. Faulting mechanisms and local soil conditions greatly influence GMPEs. The spectral acceleration (SA) of thrust faults was higher than that for either strike-slip or normal faults but the influence of strike-slip faulting on SA was slightly greater than that for normal faults. Soft soils also caused significantly more amplification than rocky sites.     

面向地震烈度仪的现地地震动预测模型的构建与验证

利用初期P波预警参数构建现地地震动预测模型,使其在达到设定阈值时快速发出报警信息,是现地地震预警系统面临的一个关键问题,直接关系到发布信息的准确性和及时性.针对地震烈度仪基于微机电系统传感器记录到的数据质量较差,通过两次积分获取的位移存在较大偏差,会引起更多的误报和漏报,本文采用不同阶数(1—4阶)的巴特沃斯滤波器,分...     

Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades

Due to the limited observational datasets available for the derivation of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) there is always epistemic uncertainty in the estimated median ground motion. Because of the increasing quality and quantity of strong-motion datasets it would be expected that the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction (related to lack of knowledge and data) is decreasing. In this study the predicted median ground motions from over 200 GMPEs for various scenarios are plotted against date of publication to examine whether the scatter in the predictions (a measure of epistemic uncertainty) is decreasing with time. It is found that there are still considerable differences in predicted ground motions from the various GMPEs and that the variation between estimates is not reducing although the ground motion estimated by averaging median predictions is roughly constant. For western North America predictions for moderate earthquakes have show a high level of consistency since the 1980s as do, but to a lesser extent, predictions for moderate earthquakes in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. A good match is observed between the predictions from GMPEs and the median ground motions based on observations from similar scenarios. Variations in median ground motion predictions for stable continental regions and subduction zones from different GMPEs are large, even for moderate earthquakes. The large scatter in predictions of the median ground motion shows that epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction is still large and that it is vital that this is accounted for in seismic hazard assessments.     

Empirical correlations between cumulative absolute velocity and spectral accelerations from NGA ground motion database

Considering multiple ground motion intensity measures is important in seismic hazard analysis and ground motion selection process. Using the NGA strong motion database and recently developed ground-motion prediction models, empirical correlations are developed between cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) and spectral accelerations (Sa) at periods from 0.01 to 10 s. The CAV–Sa correlations at long periods are significantly influenced by rupture distance due to modification of the frequency content and duration of the acceleration time history through travel path. Similarly, the presence of strong velocity pulses in near-source ground motions also affects the correlations at moderate to long periods. On the other hand, the correlations are not particularly sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, orientation of the ground-motion recordings, selection of ground-motion prediction models and local site conditions. Piecewise linear fitting equations are provided to quantify the correlations for various cases. The application of the CAV–Sa correlations in ground motion selection process is also discussed.     

Strong motion uncertainty determined from observed records by dense network in Japan

The variation of ground motions at specific stations from events in six narrow areas was inspected by using K-NET and KiK-net records. A source-area factor for individual observation stations was calculated by averaging ratios between observed values for horizontal peak acceleration and velocity, as well as acceleration response spectra for 5% damping, and predicted values using a ground-motion model (usually known as an attenuation relation) by Kanno et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 96:879–897, 2006). Standard deviations between observed and predicted amplitudes after the correction factor are less than 0.2 on the logarithmic scale and decrease down to around 0.15 in the short-period range. Intra-event standard deviation clearly increases with decreasing distance due to differing paths around near source area. Standard deviations may increase with amplitude or decrease with magnitude; however, both amplitude and magnitude of the data are strongly correlated with distance. The standard deviation calculated in this study is obviously much smaller than that of the original ground-motion model, as epistemic uncertainties are minimized by grouping ground motions at specific stations. This result indicates that the accuracy of strong ground motion prediction could be improved if ground-motion models for specified region are determined individually. For this to be possible, it is necessary to have dense strong-motion networks in high-seismicity regions, such as K-NET and KiK-net.     

Analysis of bridge structures crossing strike-slip fault rupture zones: A simple method for generating across-fault seismic ground motions

This article presents a simple and effective method for generating across-fault seismic ground motions for the analysis of ordinary and seismically isolated bridges crossing strike-slip faults. Based on pulse models available in the literature, two simple loading functions are first proposed to represent the coherent (long-period) components of ground motion across strike-slip faults. The loading functions are then calibrated using actual near-fault ground-motion records with a forward-directivity velocity pulse in the fault-normal direction and a fling-step displacement in the fault-parallel direction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing time history responses and seismic demands of ordinary and seismically isolated bridges obtained from nonlinear response history analyses using the actual ground-motion records and the calibrated loading functions. A comprehensive methodology is also presented for selecting the input parameters of the loading functions based on empirical equations and practical guidelines. Finally, an analysis procedure for bridge structures crossing strike-slip faults is introduced based on the proposed method for generating across-fault ground motions and the parameter selection methodology for the loading functions.     

Comparing predicted and observed ground motions from subduction earthquakes in the Lesser Antilles

This brief article presents a quantitative analysis of the ability of eight published empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for subduction earthquakes (interface and intraslab) to estimate observed earthquake ground motions on the islands of the Lesser Antilles (specifically Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad, and Dominica). In total, over 300 records from 22 earthquakes from various seismic networks are used within the analysis. It is found that most of the GMPEs tested perform poorly, which is mainly due to a larger variability in the observed ground motions than predicted by the GMPEs, although two recent GMPEs derived using Japanese strong-motion data provide reasonably good predictions. Analyzing separately the interface and intraslab events does not significant modify the results. Therefore, it is concluded that seismic hazard assessments for this region should use a variety of GMPEs in order to capture this large epistemic uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion prediction for the Lesser Antilles.     

Criteria for Selecting and Adjusting Ground-Motion Models for Specific Target Regions: Application to Central Europe and Rock Sites

A vital component of any seismic hazard analysis is a model for predicting the expected distribution of ground motions at a site due to possible earthquake scenarios. The limited nature of the datasets from which such models are derived gives rise to epistemic uncertainty in both the median estimates and the associated aleatory variability of these predictive equations. In order to capture this epistemic uncertainty in a seismic hazard analysis, more than one ground-motion prediction equation must be used, and the tool that is currently employed to combine multiple models is the logic tree. Candidate ground-motion models for a logic tree should be selected in order to obtain the smallest possible suite of equations that can capture the expected range of possible ground motions in the target region. This is achieved by starting from a comprehensive list of available equations and then applying criteria for rejecting those considered inappropriate in terms of quality, derivation or applicability. Once the final list of candidate models is established, adjustments must be applied to achieve parameter compatibility. Additional adjustments can also be applied to remove the effect of systematic differences between host and target regions. These procedures are applied to select and adjust ground-motion models for the analysis of seismic hazard at rock sites in West Central Europe. This region is chosen for illustrative purposes particularly because it highlights the issue of using ground-motion models derived from small magnitude earthquakes in the analysis of hazard due to much larger events. Some of the pitfalls of extrapolating ground-motion models from small to large magnitude earthquakes in low seismicity regions are discussed for the selected target region.     

基于数值模拟的设定地震场地谱时程拟合方法

本文将确定性数值模拟方法与地震动预测方程相结合,提出了一种重大水电工程场址设定地震的地震动时程生成方法。该方法基于场址设定地震,首先采用地震动预测方程确定场址的场地相关反应谱;其次建立包含震源和场址的场地模型,通过确定性数值模拟方法生成场址地震动时程;最后对生成的场址地震动时程进行调整,使其反应谱与设计谱相一致,用于工程抗震分析。这一方法生成的地震动时程既考虑了震源机制、传播路径以及局部场地效应等物理背景,又与场地相关的设计地震反应谱保持一致,为重大工程抗震分析与评价提供了一种新的思路。     

Some observations on the probabilistic interpretation of short-term earthquake precursors

This paper analyses the uncertainties in probabilistic interpretation of short-term earthquake precursors, even when the statistical information commonly indicated in the literature as sufficient to define the characteristics of these precursors is assumed to be known. The wide margins for uncertainty in the interpretation of such data are pointed out. One of the principal causes of uncertainty, as an example, lies in the physical origin of false alarms. Depending on this physical origin, the conditional probability of an earthquake, other conditions being equal, may vary in certain cases from values around 0–1 to as much as 0–7 or even higher. The utility of an alarm system, defined as the ratio between the mean number of favourable cases (successful alarms) and the mean number of unfavourable cases (false and missed alarms) is analysed. It is shown that an alarm system based on monitoring n ≥ 2 precursors, if the alarm is set off only after a combination of all precursors, may be considerably less useful than a system based on monitoring only one of the considered precursors.     

Sensitivity of ground-motion scenarios to earthquake source parameters in the Tehran metropolitan area,Iran

The northern Tehran fault (NTF) is a principal active fault of the Alborz mountain belt in the northern Iran. The fault is located north of the highly populated Metropolitan Area of Tehran. Historical records and paleoseismological studies have shown that the NTF poses a high seismic risk for the Tehran region and the surrounding cities (e.g. Karaj). A series of ground-motion simulations are carried out using a hybrid kinematic-stochastic model to calculate broadband (0.1–20 Hz) ground-motion time histories for deterministic earthquake scenarios (M7.2) on the NTF. We will describe the source characteristics of the target event to develop a list of scenario earthquakes that are probably similar to a large earthquake on the NTF. The effect of varying different rupture parameters such as rupture velocity and rise time on the resulting broadband strong motions has been investigated to evaluate the range of uncertainty in seismic scenarios. The most significant parameters in terms of ground-shaking level are the rise time and the value of the rupture velocity. For the worst-case scenario, the maximum expected horizontal acceleration, and velocity at rock sites in Tehran range between 128 and 1315 cm/s/s and 11–191 cm/s, respectively. For the lowest scenario, the corresponding values range between 102 and 776 cm/s/s and 12 to 81 cm/s. Nonlinear soil effects may change these results but are not accounted for in this study. The largest variability of ground motion is observed in neighborhood of asperity and also in the direction of rupture propagation. The calculated standard deviation of all ground-motion scenarios is less than 30% of the mean. The capability of the simulation method to synthesize expected ground motions and the appropriateness of the key parameters used in the simulations are confirmed by comparing the synthetic peak ground motions (PGA, PGV and response spectra) with empirical ground-motion prediction equations.     

Time–frequency analysis of the 2012 double earthquakes records in North-West of Iran

On August 11, 2012, East-Azerbuijan province experienced moderate-size double earthquakes, approximately 60 km northeast of the city of Tabriz. The time–frequency characteristics of ground motion records during these events which caused widespread damage to the structures are investigated in detail. Wavelet transform were applied in this study as a powerful technique to detect the transient and non-stationary features associated in amplitude and frequency of ground motions. The top four PGA ground-motion records from the first and second events were used in the analysis. As a preliminary estimates, the energy contents of horizontal and vertical components of ground-motion records related to building damages were critically evaluated and discussed at different frequency level. Results of energy distribution on pseudo-period corresponding to each decomposition level show good consistency with the level of damage in the stricken area. The focus of this study on the causes of damage considering the energy content of ground motion records is helping to improve the engineering insight in design process of earthquake-resistant buildings.     

Variation of earthquake ground motions within a very small distance

At present, dense strong motion observation networks have been established in Japan. One of the important findings based on these networks is that strong ground motions are quite site-dependent. Characteristics of observed ground motions at nearby stations can exhibit a significant variation, even when the stations are within several hundreds of meters. These observations raise one important question; if characteristics of strong ground motions exhibit large variations even for smaller regions, we should be concerned about the application of observed or predicted ground motions for the assessment of structures. In particular, if ground-motion parameters such as PGA, PGV, Spectral Intensity, etc., exhibit large variations for smaller regions, their use for the seismic design and practice will be subject to restriction. In other words, the evaluation of variation of these parameters is an important issue. From such a point of view, the authors investigated the variation of observed ground motions within a very small distance in this study. First of all, fifteen couples of adjacent strong motion stations in Japan, where the distance is within 100 m, were listed up based on our field reconnaissance. Then, microtremor measurements were carried out at each of the station pairs. Next, variation of recorded earthquake ground motions for the station pairs was examined based on various ground motion parameters and response spectra. Moreover, we investigated the key factor which is affecting the variation of observed ground motions.     

Damaging properties of ground motions and prediction of maximum response of structures based on momentary energy response

Dynamic damaging potential of ground motions must be evaluated by the response behaviour of structures, and it is necessary to indicate what properties of ground motions are most appropriate for evaluation. For that purpose, the behaviour of energy input process and hysteretic energy dissipation are investigated in this study. It is found that the momentary input energy that is an index for the intensity of input energy is related to the characteristics of earthquakes such as cyclic or impulsive, and to the response displacement of structures immediately. On the basis of these results, a procedure is proposed to predict inelastic response displacement of structures by corresponding earthquake input energy to structural dissipated damping and hysteretic energy. In this procedure the earthquake response of structures is recognized as an input and dissipation process of energy, and therefore structural properties and damaging properties of ground motions can be taken into account more generally. Lastly, the studies of the pseudodynamic loading test of reinforced concrete structure specimens subjected to ground motions with different time duration are shown. The purpose of this test is to estimate the damaging properties of ground motions and the accuracy of the proposed prediction procedure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

拟合加密控制点反应谱的地震动时程合成

在传统地震动反应谱频域拟合方法的基础上,提出了拟合加密控制点目标反应谱的地震动合成方法,并在此基础上利用实际算例与传统方法进行了对比.本文方法在每次迭代调整过程中均考虑了对地震动加速度强度包络函数的模拟,并且对调整后的地震动进行了基线校正,从而确保最终合成的地震动时程既能以一定精度拟合加密目标反应谱,又能满足目标包络函数的要求,同时保证积分所得位移曲线不产生基线漂移.数值算例分析结果表明,本文方法与传统非加密控制点目标谱拟合方法相比,在地震动时程曲线合成、反应谱拟合精度以及收敛速度等方面均具有一定的优势.