Optimization of site exploration program for improved prediction of tunneling-induced ground settlement in clays

Excessive settlement caused by tunneling during construction often damages adjacent infrastructures and utilities. Such excessive settlement can also present a challenge in the maintenance of subways during their operation. Thus, it is important to be able to accurately predict tunneling-induced settlement. The uncertainties in geotechnical parameters, however, can lead to either an overestimation or an underestimation of the tunneling-induced settlement. Such uncertainties can arise from many sources such as spatial variability, measurement error, and model error; in this paper, the focus is on the geotechnical parameters characterization from site exploration. The goal here is to determine an optimal level of site exploration effort so that effective predictions of the tunneling-induced settlement in clays can be achieved. To this end, a Monte Carlo simulation-based numerical model of site exploration is first established to generate artificial test data. Then, a series of parametric analyses are performed to investigate the relationship between the level of site exploration effort and the accuracy of the tunneling-induced ground settlement prediction. Through the assumed different levels of site exploration effort, statistics of soil parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the tunneling-induced ground settlement is then analyzed using the probabilistic method, and finally the effect of site exploration effort is assessed. The knowledge generated from this series of analyses is then used to develop the proposed framework for selecting an optimal site exploration program for improved prediction of the tunneling-induced ground settlement in clays. Examples are presented to illustrate the proposed framework and demonstrate its effectiveness and significance.     

隧道开挖地表沉降动态预测及影响因素分析

城市地铁隧道施工不可避免地对围岩产生扰动引起地表沉降,动态预测隧道开挖引起的地表沉降是确保地表建构筑物与隧道施工安全的重要基础。针对隧道施工过程中地表沉降难以准确动态预测的问题,在定义纵向开挖度系数? 的基础上,建立横向地表沉降动态预测模型。该模型能够描述同一监测位置沉降曲线随掌子面推进而不断变化的规律,实现施工现场沉降动态预测。结果表明：在特定约束条件下,该模型能够退化为Peck模型以及随机介质理论预测模型;通过现场施工验证了该动态预测模型的准确性与适用性;基于纵向开挖度系数? 将隧道沿纵向分为强烈、中度和轻度共3个影响段,较好地反映了开挖掌子面在不同位置对同一监测截面的影响程度;通过分析建筑物和隔离桩对地表沉降曲线的影响可知,建筑物与其附近地层呈现出协同变形、共同承载的特征,在隧道一侧添加地质钻隔离桩对该侧地表沉降值的减小程度可达71.9%。研究成果对滇中引水工程现场施工与类似工程具有一定指导和借鉴意义。     

基于PSO-BP神经网络的基坑周边地面沉降预测方法研究

基坑工程施工过程中的周边地面沉降直接关系到周围建筑物的安全,本文根据上海前滩地区某基坑工程的历史监测数据、施工工况和周边地层参数等多源数据对基坑周边地面沉降进行监测和预测。以PSO-BP神经网络为基础,通过将基于时序和基于沉降影响因素的网络模型对比发现：二者预测结果误差较小且基于时序的神经网络预测精度更高,说明利用PSO-BP神经网络能够很好地对基坑周边地面沉降进行分析与预测。为了综合考虑时间效应和空间效应的影响,在基于沉降影响因素的预测模型的基础上加入历史监测数据作为模型输入层进行优化,结果表明：优化后的PSO-BP神经网络模型具有更小的相对误差范围和更高的预测精度,在基坑周边地面沉降预测中有很好的应用前景。     

Calculation of surface settlements caused by EPBM tunneling using artificial neural network, SVM, and Gaussian processes

Increasing demand on infrastructures increases attention to shallow soft ground tunneling methods in urbanized areas. Especially in metro tunnel excavations, due to their large diameters, it is important to control the surface settlements observed before and after excavation, which may cause damage to surface structures. In order to solve this problem, earth pressure balance machines (EPBM) and slurry balance machines have been widely used throughout the world. There are numerous empirical, analytical, and numerical analysis methods that can be used to predict surface settlements. But substantially fewer approaches have been developed for artificial neural network-based prediction methods especially in EPBM tunneling. In this study, 18 different parameters have been collected by municipal authorities from field studies pertaining to EPBM operation factors, tunnel geometric properties, and ground properties. The data source has a preprocess phase for the selection of the most effective parameters for surface settlement prediction. This paper focuses on surface settlement prediction using three different methods: artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), and Gaussian processes (GP). The success of the study has decreased the error rate to 13, 12.8, and 9, respectively, which is relatively better than contemporary research.     

Shield Tunneling in Rock–Soil Interface Composite Formations

With increased demand for the tunnel construction in rock–soil interface composite formations, the influence on surrounding environment especially the excavation face instability during construction and ground settlement in the long term has gained great attention. The researches about environmental disturbance by shield tunneling construction in single ground as the soil or rock conditions have been developed continuously. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty of the interaction between rock–soil interface composite formations and shield machines, works on these special conditions have not been carried out sufficiently. In this paper the theoretical, experimental and numerical researches on the excavation face stability and ground settlement are discussed while the in situ datum are used to support them. First, the typical projects in rock–soil interface composite formations are listed and the difficulties met are summarized. Second, the failure model of excavation face and support pressure from the tunneling shield in rock–soil interface composite formations are discussed. Then, a comprehensive survey of the factors of ground settlement during and after construction and some effective prediction models are made. Finally, the existing problems and directions for future research are introduced.     

上海长江隧道过民房段地表变位预测及控制研究

复杂环境条件下大型泥水盾构施工诱发的地表变位的预测与控制是亟待深入研究的重要课题。结合上海长江隧道超大型泥水盾构推进工程,对其上行线隧道穿越民房段前试验段的地表沉降监测数据进行了分析,并采用随机介质理论预测了2条隧道单独及共同施工引起的横向地表变形和位移,据以制定了民房段施工地表变位控制措施。实例分析证明,预测方法和控制措施具有科学性、有效性,有一定的实用价值。     

盾构施工工艺诱发地表沉降规律浅析

在研究盾构施工工艺诱发地层沉降规律时,对施工工艺变化引起地表沉降的量化分析成果相对较少。将盾构工艺分为注浆填充率?、支护压力比? 和偏心率? 等3个主要因素,将其引入到Rowe等人提出的“间隙参数”的公式中,利用Loganathan等人提出的地表沉降预测解析公式,对上述3个工艺参数的变化对地表沉降的影响进行量化分析;同时以间隙参数为前提,对前人提出的等代层厚度参数取值进一步探讨,为复杂的盾构施工工艺的数值模拟提供计算依据。通过对西安地铁2号线试验段地表沉降实测资料进行反演,分析结果认为,提出来的间隙参数计算方法及修正等代层模型能较为真实地反应施工工艺水平,能够为盾构施工地面沉降控制提供一定的参考。     

天津软土地区盾构掘进对上方建筑物影响分析

以天津地铁2号线下穿多层建筑物的盾构隧道为例,建立了盾构下穿空旷场地以及下穿建筑物的有限元模型,计算结果与现场实测数据进行了对比验证。在此基础上分析了在天津软土地区盾构隧道施工对地表沉降及多层砌体结构建筑物差异沉降的影响,并对采用小应变土体本构模型与硬化土本构模型的计算结果进行比较。结果表明,采用小应变本构模型的地表最大沉降和横向沉降槽宽度与实测数据吻合良好。盾构斜下穿砌体结构房屋时,建筑物有偏向隧道轴线方向的倾斜,采用小应变土体本构模型的计算结果可以更好地反映建筑物的倾斜斜率的变化。因此,研究软土地区盾构掘进对上方建筑物沉降影响的精细化分析时应考虑土体小应变的影响。     

基于Stacking模型融合的深基坑地面沉降预测

为了提高机器学习对深基坑地面沉降的预测能力,本文提出了一种基于Stacking集成学习方式的多模型融合的地面沉降预测方法,并以深圳某深基坑为例,采用斯皮尔曼相关性系数对基坑地面沉降的影响因子进行筛选;运用筛选后的8个影响因子建立Stacking深基坑地面沉降预测模型,以验证该方法的适用性。结果表明：Stacking预测模型的平均绝对误差为0.34、平均绝对误差百分比为2.22%,均方根误差为0.13,相较于传统基模型（随机森林、支持向量机和人工神经网络）,Stacking预测模型的平均绝对误差、平均绝对误差百分比和均方根误差值皆为最小。     

A new equation for estimating the maximum surface settlement above tunnels excavated in soft ground

Nowadays, due to urbanization and population increase, need for metro tunnels, has been considerably increased in urban areas. Common characterization of urban area tunnels is that they are excavated in very shallow depths and soft ground. In such excavations, main challenge for tunneling is low bearing capacity and easy deformation characteristic of the ground. Tunnel face instability and the potential surface settlement are the most hazardous factors that should be considered in all tunneling methods applied in urban areas. Incorrect estimation of the maximum surface settlement value can lead to irreparable damages to the buildings and other nearby structures. There are several published relationships concerned with field measurements and analytical solutions to estimate the amount of the maximum surface settlement value due to tunneling. These relationships are not precise for calculating the aimed values. Therefore, providing accurate equations for estimation of these values is certainly useful. First purpose of this study is to determine the effective parameters such as geotechnical factors (cohesion, internal friction angle, density, Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio), and engineering factors (tunnel depth, tunnel diameter and face support pressure) on the maximum surface settlement value. In this study, three metro project constructions namely Istanbul, Tehran, Mashhad in the Middle East were chosen. FLAC3D (Itasca Consulting Group 2002) was used for detailed numerical analysis. The second aim is to present better equations in estimating the maximum surface settlement-based actual data set from several tunnel projects and numerical modeling. The results from the new estimation equation are compared with results of empirical and field observations. The maximum surface settlement values obtained from the new equation have good agreement with the actual results for three different metro case studies.     

Prediction of settlement trough induced by tunneling in cohesive ground

Surface settlements of soil due to tunneling are caused by stress relief and subsidence due to movement of support by excavation. There are significant discrepancies between empirical solutions to predict surface settlement trough because of different interpretations and database collection by different authors. In this paper, the shape of settlement trough caused by tunneling in cohesive ground is investigated by different approaches, namely analytical solutions, empirical solutions, and numerical solutions by the finite element method. The width of settlement trough was obtained by the finite element method through establishing the change in the slope of the computed settlement profile. The finite element elastic-plastic analysis gives better predictions than the linear elastic model with satisfactory estimate for the displacement magnitude and slightly overestimated width of the surface settlement trough. The finite element method overpredicted the settlement trough width i compared with the results of Peck for soft and stiff clay, but there is an excellent agreement with Rankin’s estimation. The results show that there is a good agreement between the complex variable analysis for Z/D = 1.5, while using Z/D = 2 and 3, the curve diverges in the region faraway from the center of the tunnel.     

Mechanized tunneling induced ground movement and its dependency on the tunnel volume loss and soil properties

This study investigates the ground movements due to mechanized tunnel excavation by applying two-dimensional finite element analyses. To assess the contribution of the compressibility and plasticity of the soil on the ground movements, different constitutive models are employed to describe the soil behavior. The influence of volume loss around the tunnel on the surface volume loss is investigated, and a quadratic correlation between them is proposed. Consequently, the empirical Gaussian distribution curve, which is generally used to determine the tunneling induced settlement trough, is improved by applying the proposed quadratic correlation between surface volume loss and tunnel volume loss. Furthermore, the settlement trough width parameter has been derived by a linear function of tunnel volume loss as well. The proposed equations are validated via a case study of centrifuge tests from the literature. The results show that the proposed modification enhances the empirical solution by having better knowledge on the model parameters. Additionally, tunnel overburden and coefficient of lateral earth pressure at rest (K₀) are taken into account to study their influence on the tunneling induced surface settlements. Finally, global sensitivity analysis is applied to evaluate the relative importance of corresponding model parameters in terms of their influence on the ground movements.     

面向地表沉降控制的地铁盾构参数研究

地表沉降是地铁盾构施工过程中最关心的工程问题之一,关乎近邻建筑物能否正常运营及盾构能否正常施工。故本文以地表沉降为关键目标进行地铁盾构参数研究。将影响地表沉降的盾构参数概括为开挖面支护压力比和等代层弹性模量。在此基础上,以长沙地铁1号线南门口—侯家塘区间为工程背景,采用FLAC3D软件对不同盾构参数下的施工过程进行数值模拟,分析了开挖面支护压力比及等代层弹性模量对地表沉降的影响,提出了研究区段的盾构参数建议值。研究同时得出了在建议盾构参数下,研究区段发生地表沉降的范围及地表沉降最大值。为长沙地铁后续建设及其他城市地铁建设盾构参数的选取提供理论依据和方法参考。     

西安地铁施工诱发地表沉降及对城墙的影响

以西安地铁2号线为背景,利用3种预测公式对实测地表沉降值进行拟合,得到了沉降槽形态参数。利用拟合参数,借鉴“刚度修正法”原理对地铁下穿城墙施工诱发其基础的沉降进行预测,并建立城墙的三维有限元模型,对城墙所能承受的极限变形能力和承载力进行量化分析,分析结果表明：Peck公式能较好地描述地表沉降特征;考虑后期蠕变和固结作用,盾构施工所诱发的城墙基础最大沉降量不得超过20 mm,期望对后期地铁施工引起地表沉降及其对建筑物的响应提供科学参考。     

隧道开挖引起土层沉降槽曲线形态的分析与计算

假定由于隧道开挖在地表以下土层所形成的沉降槽的体积等于地层损失以及各土层沉降槽曲线仍可用正态分布函数表示。在此假定下,首次提出可以通过对隧道中心线以上土体的沉降值的分析,研究不同深度土层沉降槽曲线宽度系数,并且通过回归分析,提出用于计算不同深度土层沉降槽曲线宽度系数的公式,为计算隧道开挖引起的地表以下土体任一点的竖向沉降提供了一种有效方法,通过工程实例的计算证明了该方法的适用性。     

Interpretation of Soil–Cement Properties and Application in Numerical Studies of Ground Settlement Due to Tunneling Under Existing Metro Line

Uncertainty of properties of improved soft ground with chemical grouting often results in discrepancy between simulated results and observed data and makes prediction for ground subsidence difficult. It also made practice usually adopts unconfined compressive strength of soil–cement mixtures as design control criterion. This paper presents a methodology to interpret the strength and deformation parameters from unconfined compressive strength of soil–cement mixtures for advanced numerical analysis which is widely used in reinforcing the soft ground and pre-supporting excavation. Observed data are used to compare with the simulated results and validate the interpretations. Numerical experiments with two-dimensional finite element model for covered undercutting of large cross-sectional twin tunnel under an existing subway station are presented. Issues with respect to design and construction of excavation that potentially affect the ground surface subsidence are explored. It was found that the ground subsidence caused by tunneling in soil–cement medium under existing subway station is similar to that in a greenfield site but with flatter settlement trough. Unconfined compressive strength of soil–cement mixtures ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 MPa can significantly reduce the settlement to an acceptable control criterion. Settlement magnitude is influenced by pillar width but not obviously by the location of umbrella arch installed in twin tunnels.     

沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型

根据灰色系统理论的信息处理原则,在灰色模型中引入时变参数,建立了沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型。模型充分考虑了预测系统的时变性和灰色性,在求解过程中,引入遗忘因子以修正预测结果,并根据后验方差比C确定遗忘因子λ的最优值,以提高预测精度。沉降预测实例表明：沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型具有较强的适用性,可降低沉降量的预测误差和提高沉降的预测精度。     

地铁双隧道施工引起地表沉降及变形的随机预测方法

地铁施工引起地表沉降及变形的预测和控制是一个有待于深入研究的重要课题。地铁区间隧道大多为近距离的双孔平行隧道,两隧道开挖引起的地表沉降及变形往往相互叠加,导致沉降及变形预测更加困难。以随机介质理论为基础,对预测公式进行了改进,实现了双孔平行隧道施工引起的地表沉降、水平位移、水平变形、倾斜、曲率预测,研发了城市隧道开挖引起的地表沉降及变形预测系统。对多处双孔平行隧道工程进行了理论预测与验证,实测沉降证明了理论方法与预测系统的科学性和有效性。     

盾构隧道掘进引起上方已建隧道的纵向变形研究

城市地铁隧道施工中经常遇到新建隧道下穿上方已建隧道的例子,如何提前预测已建隧道的纵向变形是目前工程界普遍关心的问题。基于能够考虑土体变形连续性的Kerr地基梁理论,分别将已建隧道简化为欧拉伯努利梁和铁木辛柯梁,将新建隧道对已建隧道的作用简化为高斯分布荷载,建立了新建隧道施工对上方已建隧道影响的解析分析方法;并利用离心机试验结果进行了验证。分析了地层损失率、荷载形状参数和隧道与土体相对抗弯刚度对已建隧道纵向变形的影响。探讨了隧道剪切刚度对隧道纵向变形的影响。研究发现,当隧道剪切刚度趋于无穷大时,Kerr地基上的铁木辛柯梁退化为欧拉伯努利梁;对于抗弯刚度较大的隧道（如抗弯刚度大于7.54×106 kN?m2）,Kerr地基梁具有较好的适用性;已建隧道的剪切刚度对其纵向变形何纵向曲率产生显著影响;当隧道等效剪切刚度有效系数≤1/4时,必须考虑隧道剪切刚度对隧道纵向变形的影响。将所提分析方法应用于上海盾构隧道穿越工程中,并与现场实测结果进行对比,验证了方法的合理性。     

隧道水平冻结施工期地表融沉的历时预测模型

隧道冻结工程中所形成的人工冻结壁为临时支护结构,隧道衬砌结构施工后,冻结壁要进入解冻期,由于冻结壁解冻过程中的地层融沉现象对隧道周边环境影响较大,因此,应建立合理的方法对地表融沉量进行预测,以便于实际施工中采取相应的融沉控制措施。为此,考虑冻结壁的自然解冻过程,基于随机介质理论,建立了隧道水平冻结施工期地表融沉的历时预测模型。并提出冻结壁自然解冻条件下瞬态温度场由平板解冻理论近似求解,基于平板解冻理论和一维情况下已融土层的稳定融沉量计算公式,确定了预测模型中解冻锋面半径和融缩区域内半径这2个关键参数的取值方法。将所建立的预测模型应用于隧道全断面水平冻结工程中,得到了地表融沉随解冻时间的变化规律。研究结果表明,地表融沉在解冻初期增长速度较快,而在解冻后期增长速度减缓,地表历时融沉量与崔托维奇通过试验得出的天然冻土历时融沉量变化规律相一致。