Bending-related faulting of the incoming oceanic plate and its effect on lithospheric hydration and seismicity: A passive and active seismological study offshore Maule,Chile

We have studied the dependency between incoming plate structure, bending-related faulting, lithospheric hydration, and outer rise seismic activity offshore Maule, Chile. We derived a 2D Poisson's ratio distribution from P- and S-wave seismic wide angle data collected in the trench-outer rise. High values of Poisson's ratio in the uppermost mantle suggest that the oceanic lithosphere is highly hydrated due to the water infiltration through bending-related normal faults outcropping at the seafloor. This process is presumably facilitated by the presence of a seamount in the area. We conclude that water infiltrates deep into the lithosphere, when it approaches the Chile trench, producing a reduction of crustal and upper mantle velocities, supporting serpentinization of the upper mantle. Further, we observed a mantle Vp anisotropy of 8%, with the fast velocity axis running normal to the abyssal hill fabric and hence in spreading direction, indicating that outer rise processes have yet not affected anisotropy.The first weeks following the megatrust Mw = 8.8 Maule earthquake in 2010 were characterized by a sudden increase of the outer rise seismic activity, located between 34° S and 35°30′ S. We concluded that this phenomenon is a result of an intensification of the water infiltration process in the outer rise, presumably triggered by the main shock, whose epicenter was located some 100 km to the south east of the cluster.     

Modification of fault slip models of the Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake by far field GPS observations

GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are used to derive far-field co-seismic displacements induced by the M_w 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. Significant horizontal displacements about 30 mm, 10 mm, and 20 mm were caused by this large event in northeast China, north China, and on the Korean peninsula respectively. Vectors of relatively large horizontal displacements with dominant east components pointed to the epicenter of this earthquake. The east components show an exponential decay with the longitude, which is characteristic of the decay of the co-seismic horizontal displacements associated with earthquakes of thrust rupture. The exponential fit of the east components shows that the influence of the co-seismic displacements can be detected by GPS at a distance of about 3200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. By considering the capability of the far field displacements for constraining the inversion of the fault slip model of the earthquake, we use spherically stratified Earth models to simulate the co-seismic displacements induced by this event. Using computations and comparisons, we discuss the effects of parameters of layered Earth models on the results of dislocation modeling. Comparisons of the modeled and observed displacements show that far field GPS observations are effective for constraining the fault slip model. The far field horizontal displacements observed by GPS are used to modify the slips and seismic moments of fault slip models. The result of this work is applicable as a reference for other researchers to study seismic source rupture and crustal deformation.     

Nonlinear FE model updating and reconstruction of the response of an instrumented seismic isolated bridge to the 2010 Maule Chile earthquake

Nonlinear finite element (FE) modeling has been widely used to investigate the effects of seismic isolation on the response of bridges to earthquakes. However, most FE models of seismic isolated bridges (SIB) have used seismic isolator models calibrated from component test data, while the prediction accuracy of nonlinear FE models of SIB is rarely addressed by using data recorded from instrumented bridges. In this paper, the accuracy of a state‐of‐the‐art FE model is studied through nonlinear FE model updating (FEMU) of an existing instrumented SIB, the Marga‐Marga Bridge located in Viña del Mar, Chile. The seismic isolator models are updated in 2 phases: component‐wise and system‐wise FEMU. The isolator model parameters obtained from 23 isolator component tests show large scatter, and poor goodness of fit of the FE‐predicted bridge response to the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile Earthquake is obtained when most of those parameter sets are used for the isolator elements of the bridge model. In contrast, good agreement is obtained between the FE‐predicted and measured bridge response when the isolator model parameters are calibrated using the bridge response data recorded during the mega‐earthquake. Nonlinear FEMU is conducted by solving single‐ and multiobjective optimization problems using high‐throughput cloud computing. The updated FE model is then used to reconstruct response quantities not recorded during the earthquake, gaining more insight into the effects of seismic isolation on the response of the bridge during the strong earthquake.     

Generation of VHF radio emissions by electric discharges in the lower atmosphere over a seismic region

Observational data of the seismic related VHF radio emissions at 41 and 53 MHz obtained at the four stations of Create Island are presented. The epicenter of EQs is located at the distance more than 300 km behind the horizon. It was shown that VHF radiation is generated at the altitudes 1–10 km in the atmosphere over the epicenter of EQs. The theory of generation of electromagnetic radiation by random electric discharges was developed. These discharges are excited by DC electric field enhanced up to the breakdown value in the atmosphere. The field is connected with the electric current flowing in the atmosphere–ionosphere circuit, whose source is generated by convective transport of charged aerosols, which are injected in the atmosphere by soil gases during the enhancement of seismicity. Calculations of the spectrum of electromagnetic radiation are derived, and the theoretical results are confirmed by observation data.     

Statistical prediction of the next great earthquake around Tehran,Iran

The analysis of seismic activity variations with space and time is a complex problem. Several statistical methods have been adopted to study these variations. One of the tasks that has attracted the attention of the seismological and statistical community is to explain seismicity patterns by statistical models and apply the results for earthquake prediction. Here the probability distribution of recurrence times as described by Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull probability distributions and the idea of conditional probability has been applied to predict the next great (Ms ≥ 6.0 and Ms ≥ 6.5) earthquake around Tehran (r ≤ 200 km). Conditional probability specifies the likelihood that a given earthquake will happen within a specified time. This likelihood is based on the information about past earthquake occurrences in the given region and the basic assumption that future seismic activity will follow the pattern of past activity. The rapid growth of Tehran to approximately 12 million inhabitants has resulted in a much more rapid increase in its vulnerability to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Several earthquakes affected this region in the past, mostly on the Mosha, Taleqan, Eyvankey and Garmsar faults. The estimated recurrence times for Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull distributions has been computed to be 66.64, 14.79, 26.88, 2.37, 67.58 and 80.47, respectively. Accordingly, one may expect that a large damaging earthquake may occur around Tehran approximately every 10 years.     

Patterns of significant seismic quiescence on the Mexican Pacific coast

Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, M_w = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, M_w = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, M_w = 8.0, and M_w = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, M_w = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology.     

A spatial correlation model of peak ground acceleration and response spectra based on data of the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System

Ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at two sites due to the same seismic event are correlated. The spatial correlation needs to be considered when modeling ground-motion fields for seismic loss assessments, since it can have a significant influence on the statistical moments and probability distribution of aggregated seismic loss of a building portfolio.Empirical models of spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures exist only for a few seismic regions in the world such as Japan, Taiwan and California, since for this purpose a dense observation network of earthquake ground motion is required. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) provides one such dense array with station spacing of typically 2 km in the urban area of Istanbul. Based on the records of eight small to moderate (M_w3.5–M_w5.1) events, which occurred since 2003 in the Marmara region, we establish a model of intra-event spatial correlation for PGA and PSA up to the natural period of 1.0 s.The results indicate that the correlation coefficients of PGA and short-period PSA decay rapidly with increasing interstation distance, resulting in correlation lengths of approximately 3–4 km, while correlation lengths at longer natural periods (above 0.5 s) exceed 6 km. Finally, we implement the correlation model in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate economic loss in Istanbul's district Zeytinburnu due to a M_w7.2 scenario earthquake.     

Shake table tests of a new steel–asphalt composite layer system for the seismic base isolation of housing units

Base isolation is an effective way to reduce earthquake energy transfer from ground to structure, but existing seismic isolation systems are not very suitable for rural buildings for some reasons. A new steel–asphalt composite layer for the seismic base isolation of housing units is present in this paper. Its dynamic characteristics and isolation effect are studied by shake table tests of two full-scale specimens. Different earthquake waves with different peak ground accelerations (PGA, from 0.1 g to 0.4 g) are input. Test results show that the isolation layer could efficiently reduce the input acceleration. Moreover, as the PGA increase, the isolation layer shows good function of the displacement limit.     

The Al Hoceima Mw 6.4 earthquake of 24 February 2004 and its aftershocks sequence

The Al Hoceima Mw 6.4 earthquake of 24 February 2004 that occurred in the eastern Rif region of Morocco already hit by a large event in May 1994 (Mw 5.9) has been followed by numerous aftershocks in the months following the event. The aftershock sequence has been monitored by a temporary network of 17 autonomous seismic stations during 15 days (28 March–10 April) in addition to 5 permanent stations of the Moroccan seismic network (CNRST, SPG, Rabat). This network allowed locating accurately about 650 aftershocks that are aligned in two directions, about N10-20E and N110-120E, in rough agreement with the two nodal planes of the focal mechanism (Harvard). The aftershock alignments are long enough, about 20 km or more, to correspond both to the main rupture plane. To further constrain the source of the earthquake main shock and aftershocks (mb > 3.5) have been relocated thanks to regional seismic data from Morocco and Spain. While the main shock is located at the intersection of the aftershock clouds, most of the aftershocks are aligned along the N10-20E direction. This direction together with normal sinistral slip implied by the focal mechanism is similar with the direction and mechanisms of active faults in the region, particularly the N10E Trougout oblique normal fault. Indeed, the Al Hoceima region is dominated by an approximate ENE-SSW direction of extension, with oblique normal faults. Three major 10–30 km-long faults, oriented NNE-SSW to NW-SE are particularly clear in the morphology, the Ajdir and Trougout faults, west and east of the Al Hoceima basin, respectively, and the NS Rouadi fault 20 km to the west. These faults show clear evidence of recent vertical displacements during the late Quaternary such as uplifted alluvial terraces along Oued Rihs, offset fan surfaces by the Rouadi fault and also uplifted and tilted abandoned marine terraces on both sides of the Al Hoceima bay.However, the N20E direction is in contrast with seismic sources identified from geodetic inversions, which favour but not exclusively the N110-120E rupture directions, suggesting that the 1994 and 2004 events occurred on conjugate faults. In any event, the recent seismicity is thus concentrated on sinistral N10-20E or N110-120E dextral strike-slip faults, which surface expressions remain hidden below the 3–5 km-thick Rif nappes, as shown by the tomographic images build from the aftershock sequence and the concentration of the seismicity below 3 km. These observations may suggest that strain decoupling between the thrusted cover and the underlying bedrock and highlights the difficulty to determine the source properties of moderate events with blind faults even in the case of good quality recorded data.     

The seismically active Andean and Central American margins: Can satellite gravity map lithospheric structures?

The spatial resolution and quality of geopotential models (EGM2008, EIGEN-5C, ITG-GRACE03s, and GOCO-01s) have been assessed as applied to lithospheric structure of the Andean and Central American subduction zones. For the validation, we compared the geopotential models with existing terrestrial gravity data and density models as constrained by seismic and geological data. The quality and resolution of the downward continued geopotential models in the Andes and Central America decrease with increasing topography and depend on the availability of terrestrial gravity data. High resolution of downward continued gravity data has been obtained over the Southern Andes where elevations are lower than 3000 m and sufficient terrestrial gravity data are available. The resolution decreases with an increase in elevation over the north Chilean Andes and Central America. The low resolution in Central America is mainly attributed to limited surface gravity data coverage of the region.To determine the minimum spatial dimension of a causative body that could be resolved using gravity gradient data, a synthetic gravity gradient response of a spherical anomalous mass has been computed at GOCE orbit height (254.9 km). It is shown that the minimum diameter of such a structure with density contrast of 240 kg m⁻³ should be at least ∼45 km to generate signal detectable at orbit height. The batholithic structure in Northern Chile, which is assumed to be associated with plate coupling and asperity generation, is about 60–120 km wide and could be traceable in GOCE data. Short wavelength anomalous structures are more pronounced in the components of the gravity gradient tensor and invariants than in the gravity field.As the ultimate objective of this study is to understand the state of stress along plate interface, the geometry of the density model, as constrained by combined gravity models and seismic data, has been used to develop dynamic model of the Andean margin. The results show that the stress regime in the fore-arc (high and low) tends to follow the trend of the earthquake distributions.     

Simultaneous infrasonic,seismic, magnetic and ionospheric observations in an earthquake epicentre

Various pre-seismic and co-seismic effects have been reported in the literature in the solid Earth, hydrosphere, atmosphere, electric/magnetic field and in the ionosphere. Some of the effects observed above the surface, particularly some of the pre-seismic effects, are still a matter of debate. Here we analyze the co-seismic effects of a relatively weak earthquake of 28 October 2008, which was a part of an earthquake swarm in the westernmost region of the Czech Republic. Special attention is paid to unique measurements of infrasonic phenomena. As far as we know, these have been the first infrasonic measurements during earthquake in the epicentre zone. Infrasonic oscillations (～1–12 Hz) in the epicentre region appear to be excited essentially by the vertical seismic oscillations. The observed oscillations are real epicentral infrasound not caused by seismic shaking of the instruments or by meteorological phenomena. Seismo-infrasonic oscillations observed 155 km apart from the epicentre were excited in situ by seismic waves. No earthquake-related infrasonic effects have been observed in the ionosphere. Necessity to make vibration tests of instruments is pointed out in order to be sure that observed effects are not effects of mechanical shaking of the instrument.     

Crustal seismic structure and depth distribution of earthquakes in the Archean Kuusamo region,Fennoscandian Shield

Two-dimensional crustal velocity models are derived from passive seismic observations for the Archean Karelian bedrock of north-eastern Finland. In addition, an updated Moho depth map is constructed by integrating the results of this study with previous data sets. The structural models image a typical three-layer Archean crust, with thickness varying between 40 and 52 km. P wave velocities within the 12–20 km thick upper crust range from 6.1 to 6.4 km/s. The relatively high velocities are related to layered mafic intrusive and volcanic rocks. The middle crust is a fairly homogeneous layer associated with velocities of 6.5–6.8 km/s. The boundary between middle and lower crust is located at depths between 28 and 38 km. The thickness of the lower crust increases from 5–15 km in the Archean part to 15–22 km in the Archean–Proterozoic transition zone. In the lower crust and uppermost mantle, P wave velocities vary between 6.9–7.3 km/s and 7.9–8.2 km/s. The average V_p/V_s ratio increases from 1.71 in the upper crust to 1.76 in the lower crust.The crust attains its maximum thickness in the south-east, where the Archean crust is both over- and underthrust by the Proterozoic crust. A crustal depression bulging out from that zone to the N–NE towards Kuusamo is linked to a collision between major Archean blocks. Further north, crustal thickening under the Salla and Kittilä greenstone belts is tentatively associated with a NW–SE-oriented collision zone or major shear zone. Elevated Moho beneath the Pudasjärvi block is primarily explained with rift-related extension and crustal thinning at ∼2.4–2.1 Ga.The new crustal velocity models and synthetic waveform modelling are used to outline the thickness of the seismogenic layer beneath the temporary Kuusamo seismic network. Lack of seismic activity within the mafic high-velocity body in the uppermost 8 km of crust and relative abundance of mid-crustal, i.e., 14–30 km deep earthquakes are characteristic features of the Kuusamo seismicity. The upper limit of seismicity is attributed to the excess of strong mafic material in the uppermost crust. Comparison with the rheological profiles of the lithosphere, calculated at nearby locations, indicates that the base of the seismogenic layer correlates best with the onset of brittle to ductile transition at about 30 km depth.We found no evidence on microearthquake activity in the lower crust beneath the Archean Karelian craton. However, a data set of relatively well-constrained events extracted from the regional earthquake catalogue implies a deeper cut-off depth for earthquakes in the Norrbotten tectonic province of northern Sweden.     

Evaluation of the crustal deformations in the northern region of Lake Nasser (Egypt) derived from 8 years of GPS campaign observations

The proper evaluation of crustal deformations in the Aswan (Egypt) region is crucial due to the existence of one major artificial structure: the Aswan High Dam. This construction induced the creation of one of the major artificial lakes: Lake Nasser, which has a surface area of about 5200 km² with a maximum capacity of 165 km³. The lake is nearly 550 km long (more than 350 km within Egypt and the remainder in Sudan) and 35 km across at its widest point. Great attention has focused on this area after the November 14, 1981 earthquake (M_L = 5.7), with its epicenter southwest of the High Dam.In order to evaluate the present-day kinematics of the region, its relationship with increasing seismicity, and the possible influence of the Aswan High Dam operation, a network of 11 GPS sites was deployed in the area. This network has been reobserved every year since 2000 in campaign style. We present here the results of the analysis of the GPS campaign time-series. These time-series are already long enough to derive robust solutions for the motions of these stations. The computed trends are analyzed within the framework of the geophysical and geological settings of this region. We show that the observed displacements are significant, pointing to a coherent intraplate extensional deformation pattern, where some of the major faults (e.g., dextral strike-slip Kalabsha fault and normal Dabud fault) correspond to gradients of the surface deformation field. We also discuss the possible influence of the water load on the long-term deformation pattern.     

Seismic microzonation studies for the city of Ragusa (Italy)

The seismic history of the city of Ragusa (Italy), the geotechnical characterisation of the subsoil and the site response analysis should be correctly evaluated for the definition of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard of the city of Ragusa, through geo-settled seismic microzoning maps. Basing on the seismic history of the city of Ragusa, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X–XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 53 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 64 km); the Vizzini earthquake of April 13, 1895 (with intensity I=VII–VIII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.86 and epicentral distance of about 26 km); the “Modica” earthquake of January 23, 1980 (with intensity I=V–VI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=4.58 and epicentral distance of about 10 km); the “Sicilian” earthquake of December 13, 1990 (with intensity I=VII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.64 and epicentral distance of about 50 km). Geotechnical characterisation has been performed by in situ and laboratory tests, with the definition of shear wave velocity profiles in the upper 30 m of soil. Soil response analyses have been evaluated for about 120 borings location by some non-linear 1-D models. Finally the seismic microzonation of the city of Ragusa has been obtained in terms of maps with different peak ground acceleration at the surface; shaking maps for the central area of the city of Ragusa were generated via GIS for the earthquake scenarios.     

Crustal velocity structure in the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran)

Inversion of local earthquake travel times and joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity measurements were used to derive a simple model for the velocity crustal structure beneath the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran), including the seismically active area around the megacity of Tehran. The P and S travel times from 115 well-located earthquakes recorded by a dense local seismic network, operated from June to November 2006, were inverted to determine a 1D velocity model of the upper crust. The limited range of earthquake depths (between 2 km and 26 km) prevents us determining any velocity interfaces deeper than 25 km. The velocity of the lower crust and the depth of the Moho were found by joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity data. The resulting P-wave velocity model comprises an upper crust with 3 km and 4 km thick sedimentary layers with P wave velocities (V_p) of ～5.4 and ～5.8 km s^?1, respectively, above 9 km and 8 km thick layers of upper crystalline crust (V_p ～6.1 and ～6.25 km s^?1 respectively). The lower crystalline crust is ～34 km thick (V_p ～ 6.40 km s^?1). The total crustal thickness beneath this part of the Central Alborz is 58 ± 2 km.     

Damages on reinforced concrete buildings due to consecutive earthquakes in Van

Consecutive earthquakes occurred on October 23rd, 2011 in Ercis and on November 9th, 2011 in Edremit that are townships located 90 km and 18 km far from Van city in Turkey, respectively. A total of 28,000 buildings were damaged or collapsed in the city center and the surrounding villages after the Ercis earthquake. This number reached 35,000 after the Edremit earthquake. In the area where the earthquakes occurred, almost all the reinforced concrete buildings were affected.This study presents field observations of damages on reinforced concrete buildings due to the consecutive earthquakes that occurred in Van, Turkey. Damages appearing in the buildings may occur due to several reasons such as site effect, poor construction quality, poor concrete strength, poor detailing in beam-column joints, detailing of stronger beam than column, soft stories, weak stories, inadequate reinforcement, short lap splices, incorrect end hook angle, and short columns. Aftershocks also caused progressive damages on the buildings within 17 days after the earthquakes. According to the results of this study, most of the damaged buildings were not designed and constructed according to the Turkish earthquake code, the so-called Specification for Buildings to be built in Seismic Zones.     

A qualitative study of seismic-ionospheric precursor phenomena monitored by a very close to the epicenter VLF and LF receiver

This work investigates the occurrence of disturbances across a wide range of VLF and LF frequencies received prior to a seismic event (Mw = 4), that took place on May 12th 2012, the epicenter of which was very close (14 km) to the VLF/LF station. The signals analyzed were emitted from five VLF and five LF European transmitters. This seismic event produced precursory ionospheric disturbances, identified as spectral distortion, three days before its occurrence, providing a distinct pattern open to further investigation. Although the basis of the ionosphere interaction with seismic phenomena has been well documented in previous studies, the close proximity of the receiver to the seismic event provides a new perspective to this study. The monitored signals have undergone normalization and then they have been processed by means of the Hilbert-Huang Transform. Diagrams of the signals relevant to the phenomena are presented and the disturbances that are present in the raw data are accentuated through further processing.     

Active segment of the 12 November 2003 Mw 5.6 earthquake at Salsipuedes oceanic basin,Gulf of California. Mexico

We analyzed records of eight seismic stations of the autonomous broadband seismograph network of a joint project between Utrecht University (the Netherlands), California Institute of Technology, and Centro de Investigación Científica y de Estudios Superiores de Ensenada (CICESE). These stations recorded the Mw 5.6 earthquake that occurred on 12 November 2003 at Salsipuedes basin in the middle of the Gulf of California 2 km west of the island Angel de la Guarda. This event was located at 29.16º N and 113.37º W, 30 km northeast of Bahia de los Angeles. A foreshock and hundreds of aftershocks were recorded in the 48 hours after its origin time. With the location of 29 earthquakes we identified the active segment, perpendicular to the main transform fault NW–SE of Canal de Ballenas, representing the transtensional boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. The direction of the active fault described is consistent with the normal fault mechanism reported by the National Earthquake Information Center (strike=39º, dip=34º, slip=–44º).From the duration magnitude of 456 aftershocks, we calculated a b-value of 1.14±0.28; furthermore, we calculated a seismic moment of (3.5 ±3.3) X10¹⁷Nm, a source radius of 3.7 ± 2.63 km, and a static stress drop of 3.94 ± 1.15 MPa (39.4 ± 11.5 bar.).     

Ionospheric anomalies detected by ground-based GPS before the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, China

In this paper, we used the vertical total electron content (VTEC) derived from ground-based GPS observations to examine the ionospheric variations during the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake which occurred on May 12, 2008, in China. The final results showed that the ionospheric VTEC around the epicenter increased obviously 9 days before the earthquake, decreased significantly 6 days before the earthquake, and increased strikingly 3 days before the earthquake. Relative to a normal non-perturbed state of the ionosphere, the maximum anomalies in the 3 days exceeded 40%, 40%, and 70%, respectively. The spatial sizes of the VTEC decrement and increment by more than 30% extended larger than 1500 km in latitude and 4000 km in longitude. Moreover, the maximum anomalies 6 days and 3 days before the earthquake moved towards the equator.     

Temporal and spatial variations of seismicity scaling behavior in Southern México

R/S analysis is used in this work to investigate the fractal correlations in terms of the Hurst exponent for the 1998–2011 seismicity data in Southern Mexico. This region is the most seismically active area in Mexico, where epicenters for severe earthquakes (e.g., September 19, 1985, M_w = 8.1) causing extensive damage in highly populated areas have been located. By only considering the seismic events that meet the Gutenberg–Ritcher law completeness requirement (b = 0.97, M_GR = 3.6), we found time clustering for scales of about 100 and 135 events. In both cases, a cyclic behavior with dominant spectral components at about one cycle per year is revealed. It is argued that such a one-year cycle could be related to tidal effects in the Pacific coast. Interestingly, it is also found that high-magnitude events (M_w ≥ 6.0) are more likely to occur under increased interevent correlations with Hurst exponent values H > 0.65. This suggests that major earthquakes can occur when the tectonic stress accumulates in preferential directions. In contrast, the high-magnitude seismic risk is reduced when stresses are uniformly distributed in the tectonic shell. Such cointegration between correlations (i.e., Hurst exponent) and macroseismicity is confirmed for spatial variations of the Hurst exponent. In this way, we found that, using the Hurst exponent standpoint, the former presumed Michoacan and the Guerrero seismic gaps are the riskiest seismic zones. To test this empirical finding, two Southern Mexico local regions with large earthquakes were considered. These are the Atoyac de Alvarez, Guerrero (M_w = 6.3), and Union Hidalgo, Oaxaca (M_w = 6.6), events. In addition, we used the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake (October 17, 1989, M_w = 6.9) to show that the high-magnitude earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault region can also be linked to the increments of determinism (quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent) displayed by the stochastic dynamics of the interevent period time series. The results revealed that the analysis of seismic activity by means of R/S analysis could provide further insights in the advent of major earthquakes.