Late Pleistocene to Holocene eruptive activity of Pico de Orizaba,Eastern Mexico

The Late Pleistocene to Holocene eruptive history of Pico de Orizaba can be divided into 11 eurptive episodes. Each eruptive episode lasted several hundred years, the longest recorded being about 1000 years (the Xilomich episode). Intervals of dormancy range from millenia during the late Pleistocene to about 500 years, the shortest interval recorded in the Holocene. This difference could reflect either changes in the volcano's activity or that the older stratigraphic record is less complete than the younger. Eruptive mechanisms during the late Pleistocene were characterized by dome extrusions, lava flows and ash-and-scoria-flow generating eruptive columns. However, in Holocene time plinian activity became increasingly important. The increase in dacitic plinian eruptions over time is related to increased volumes of dacitic magma beneath Pico de Orizaba. We suggest that the magma reservoir under Pico de Orizaba is stratified. The last eruptive episode, which lasted from about 690 years bp until ad 1687, was initiated by a dacitic plinian eruption and was followed by effusive lava-forming eruptions. For the last 5,000 years the activity of the volcano has been gradually evolving towards such a trend, underlining the increasing importance of dacitic magma and stratification of the magma reservoir. Independent observations of Pico de Orizaba's glacier early this century indicate that some increase in volcanic activity occurred between 1906 and 1947, and that it was probably fumarolic.     

Chemical variations of tephra-fall deposit leachates for three eruptions from Popocatépetl volcano

Leachates from ash samples of the Popocatépetl eruptions of April 30, 1996, May 12, 1997, and October 17, 1998 settled at different distances from the crater were analyzed for anions (SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻, F⁻) and some metals. This study is aimed at determining the causes of the compositional variations of the leachates, to assist the assessment of water, soil and crop contamination due to ash deposits. Different behavior was observed in the ion concentrations with distance for the three eruptions. On April 30, 1996, SO₄²⁻ and F⁻ concentrations increased with distance, and Cl⁻ remained almost constant. On May 12, 1997, concentrations of the three anions decreased with distance. On October 17, 1998, F⁻, Cl⁻ and SO₄²⁻ increased more than three-fold with distance. Tephra size distributions were also different for the three eruptions. The observed trends of the leachates’ anion concentrations may have different causes: the type and intensity of the eruptions, the distribution of the tephra sizes, the degree of interaction of the tephras with volcanic gases, humidity, static charge, the original characteristics of the solid material, the transport time from the crater to the site of settling, and the relative angle between the wind direction and the sampling line. Enrichment factors and concentration trends for metals with distance suggest that Co, Ni, Cu and Pb in the leachates resulted mostly from volcanic gas adsorption.     

Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano,México

The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ∼ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.     

Deformation and seismic precursors to dome-collapse and fountain-collapse nuées ardentes at Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia, 1994–1998

Following the eruption of January 1992, episodes of lava dome growth accompanied by generation of dome-collapse nuées ardentes occurred in 1994–1998. In addition, nuées ardentes were generated by fountain-collapse in January 1997, and the 1998 events also suggest an explosive component. Significant tilt and seismic precursors on varying time scales preceded these events. Deformation about the summit has been detected by electronic tiltmeters since November 1992, with inflation corresponding generally to lava dome growth, and deflation (or decreased inflation) corresponding to loss of dome mass. Strong short-term (days to weeks) accelerations in tilt rate and seismicity occurred prior to the major nuées ardentes episodes, apart from those of 22 November 1994 which were preceded by steadily increasing tilt for over 200 days but lacked short-term precursors. Because of the combination of populated hazardous areas and the lack of an issued warning, about 100 casualties occurred in 1994. In contrast, the strong precursors in 1997 and 1998 provided advance warning to observatory scientists, enabled the stepped raising of alert levels, and aided hazard management. As a result of these factors, but also the fortunate fact that the large nuées ardentes did not quite descend into populated areas, no casualties occurred. The nuée ardente episode of 1994 is interpreted as purely due to gravitational collapse, whereas those of 1997 and 1998 were influenced by gas-pressurization of the lava dome.     

Effusive history of the Grande Découverte Volcanic Complex, southern Basse-Terre (Guadeloupe, French West Indies) from new K–Ar Cassignol–Gillot ages

The Grande Découverte Volcanic Complex (GDVC), active since at least 0.2 Ma, is the most recent volcanic complex of the Basse-Terre Island (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles Arc). A detailed geochronological study using the K–Ar Cassignol–Gillot technique has been undertaken in order to reconstruct the history of effusive activity of this long-lived volcanic system. Twenty new ages permit to suggest that the GDVC experienced at least six main effusive stages, from 200 ka to present time. To the north of the GDVC, the GDS (Grande Découverte–Soufrière volcano) has been active since at least 200 ka, and to the south, the TRMF (Trois-Rivières–Madeleine Field), started to be emplaced 100 ka. Morphological investigations suggest that the whole TRMF volcanism was emitted from vents distinct from the GDS, most probably a large E–W fissure network linked to the Marie-Galante rift. The mean age of 62 ± 5 ka, obtained for the E–W Madeleine–Le Palmiste alignment suggests that a fissure-opening event occurred at that time. However, whole-rock major and trace element signatures are similar for both systems, suggesting that a common complex magma-plumbing system has fed the overall GDVC. We report very young ages for lava flows from the TRMF, which implies that < 10 ka volcanic activity is now identified for both massifs. Although hazards associated with such effusive volcanism are much lower than those associated with potential flank-collapse of the Soufrière lava dome or a magmatic dome eruption with explosive phases within the GDS, the emplacement of relatively large Holocene age lava flows (3–1 × 10⁸ m³) suggests that a revised integrated volcanic hazard assessment for Southern Basse-Terre should now consider the potential for renewed future activity from two Holocene volcanic centers including the TRMF.     

Reconstruction and analysis of sub-plinian tephra dispersal during the 1530 A.D. Soufrière (Guadeloupe) eruption: Implications for scenario definition and hazards assessment

The last magmatic eruption of Soufrière of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufrière eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2–3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 × 10⁶ m³ DRE (16.3 × 10⁶ m³ bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5–6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 10⁶ m³ (5 × 10⁶ m³ DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3–4 km west–southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.