未来的天气气候预测体系

天气气候预测中的不确定性是不可避免的。它一方面给用户或有关决策者带来很大的困难，同时也给科学工作者提出了新的研究课题。文章较为系统地评述了近几年出现的关于如何发展未来气象预测体系的若干观点，根据风险经济学和决策理论，构建了一个未来天气气候预测体系的概念模型。其主要思想是将气象预测过程同用户决策过程有机地结合起来，充分利用来自用户的知识和风险管理经验，形成一个相互作用协同发展的预测体系。     

山西气候冬暖夏凉特征分析

山西气候冬暖夏凉特征分析郑炎谋，张爱芝，郭慕萍，张仲生（山西省气象科学研究所０３０００２山西省气候资料室０３０００６）气候变化问题日益受到世界各国关注，我国政府批准的“环境与发展报告”表明，气候变暖使中国农业生产不稳定性增大，海平面上升使沿海地区经济...     

气候研究的现状

一、气候学领域中的科学革命近来气候学发生了重大变革,也就是人们经常谈到的气候学领域中发生的一场科学革命。过去的气候学基本上是一门经验学科,虽然揭示了现代和古代气候的许多重要规律,但却不能用来定量地解释气侯的成因和许多其他有重大科学及实际意义的问题。在七十年代,气候学发生了变革,这种变革的主要特征有两点:第一、在气候研究上广泛地应用了近代大气物理的理论和实验方法。建立了气候理论模式,对气象观测资料进行详细的统计分析,成功地发展了气候对各种自然过程(包括水文体系、植物生长和地理局地性)发生影响的数值模拟。在观测资料中,除利用常规的地面气象观测资料外,越来越广泛地应用海洋探测中获得的日射资料和高空观测资料以及卫     

十年来我国的农业气象科学研究工作

农业气象作为一门科学来讲,在旧中国是毫无基础的。历代的反动政府从来就不会想到要建立为农业生产服务的农业气象科学,因此解放前,无论在气象部门或者在农业部门,都没有人研究农业气象这门科学。但是,我国农业生产有着悠久的历史,几千年来,农民在生产过程中,对于天气和气候影响农作物生长发育和农事活动的规律方面,都积累了极为丰富的经验。这些经验在当时固然起了指导农业生产的作用,就是在今天,流传在广大农民中的许多农谚和相应的田间管理方法也仍然是很有用的。一些古代书籍如吕氏春     

气候、中国古代文化传统与科学

1气候与文化传统气候是文化传统形成的一个因了．传说和神话源于古代人们对自然现象的认识与想象，可能是文化传统形成的最早表现．在这里，中国颇具特色．举例说．许多民族古代有洪水的传说，但夏禹治水这样征服洪水的例子只出现在中国．《圣经》中“诺亚方舟”的故事说明心地善良的诺亚在上帝启示了，作了巨大方舟以避洪水洁动．这同夏禹治水以改变自然的想象力不可同日而语．阿况夏禹治水并不全底传说，而有一定史料依据，只是尚未完全考证清楚而已．在我国还人切界射九日”、“女朗外天”等传说，代表占代人类对改变自然环境的愿望，同…     

大气遥感的现状与前景

大气遥感是从六十年代初开始系统形成的新型大气探测方法。经过近二十年来的蓬勃发展,已初步成为大气科学中一个新兴的分支领域。 大气遥感的兴起是大气物理和近代科学技术结合的产物;是气象观测发展历史中辩证的螺旋式上升的一次飞跃。气象观测从古代朴素的看天象、物象,进入到定量的气象仪器观测时代,是气象科学质的飞跃。在这个时期,从地面观测中的器测项目,直到自动气     

节气和气候

“天地革而四时成”(《周易革第四十九》)；天地应时变化而四时成序。“以鸟鸣春，以雷鸣夏，以虫鸣秋，以风呜冬(韩愈《送孟东野序》)。”节气是我国古代劳动人民在生产实践中总结出的非常丰富的农业气象经验，也是天文、气候与农业生产曼者密切结合的科学产物。     

风与玻璃器皿厂厂房结构

通过分析祁县风的气候特点，讨论了风对玻璃厂厂房结构的影响，给出玻璃厂厂房设计中的注意事项，为厂房设计者提供了科学的设计依据。     

混合型措施有利中国气候保护

郑金武在2007年4月25日《科学时报》撰文介绍，王铮及其科研团队在《人地关系协调意义的气候保护经济分析理论与模型》研究课题报告指出，在一定形势下，中国进行适当的气候保护是可以的。目前大多数关于气候保护的政策都还限于减排，理论上，全球气候系统保护存在两种机制，减少碳的排放源和增加碳的吸收汇（增汇）。[第一段]     

评新书《中国历史时期冬半年气候冷暖变迁》

近几年来,世界各国都十分关注古气候学的问题,因为过去的气候变化资料对预测未来的气候具有十分重要的意义．利用中国古代的文献资料,重建我国五千年来气候变迁的历史,是竺可桢先生开创的．文焕然和文榕生合著的由科学出版社出版的《中国历史时期冬半年气候冷暖变迁》...     

近年来中国统计气象学的新进展

近年来，统计气象学在中国取得了长足的进展。其中主要有：将熵原理用于气象学，从而建立了熵气象学；引进了忆及过去时次资料的记忆函数，导出了大气运动的自忆性方程；将模糊数学引入气象学；将非线性动力学用于气候学研究，提出了一系列相空间预报模式；将车贝雪夫多项式推广到不规则格点，提出了一种新的时间序列预报的迭代算法；应用子波分析方法进行气候学研究；将Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ判别分析用于气象预报，研究了二次判别及逐步判别等问题；将中国科学家提出的灰色系统理论和多层递阶方法引入气象预报。此外，还引进了复经验正交分解、奇异值分解、投影追踪、主振荡模态分析等较新的统计学方法。这些方法都已在气象业务预报中发挥了作用     

Impacts of assimilated data on reanalysis climatology

Impacts of the observing systems and meteorological parameters on a reanalyzed climatology are investigated using an assimilation algorithm based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis system. The one-year analyzed climatology is generated in a standard analysis using all of the observations, which is named the control run. Additional climatology data sets are produced by selectively choosing observational systems or meteorological variables in the reanalysis system. It is found that the radiosonde-only observation is sufficient for reproducing the reanalysis climatology. Satellite observations have no significant contribution to the large-scale fields. The importance of meteorological variables on the analyzed climatology is temperature, wind, and moisture in that order, where the mass observation is found to have a greater impact on the analyzed climatology than wind. It is, however, noted that the moisture field demonstrates a profound influence on the surface hydroclimate such as cloud cover, radiation flux, and land surface temperature.     

ADVANCES IN STATISTICAL METEOROLOGY IN CHINA IN RECENT YEARS

Great advances in statistical meteorology have been made in recent years in China.The mainpoints are as follows:Introducing entropy principle into meteorology,entropy meteorology isfounded;Introducing memory function,self-memorization equation of atmospheric motion isderived;The fuzzy reasoning is introduced into meteorology;Using the method of nonlineardynamics in researches of climatology,some forecasting schemes of phase space are proposed;Chebyshev polynomial is generalized at irregular grids and an iterative scheme for forecast of timeseries is proposed:The wavelet transform is used in researches in climatology;Logisticdiscrimination is used in meteorology and quadratic discrimination and stepwise discrimination areinvestigated;The theory on grey system and the multilevel recursion proposed by Chinesescientists are introduced into meteorological forecast.In addition,complex empirical orthogonalfunction,singular value decomposition,projection pursuit,principal oscillation patterns and so onare also introduced.All the above methods have played great roles in operational weatherforecasts.     

Customization of regional climate model (RegCM4) over Indian region

The regional climate model (RegCM4) is customized for 10-year climate simulation over Indian region through sensitivity studies on cumulus convection and land surface parameterization schemes. The model is configured over 30° E–120° E and 15° S–45° N at 30-km horizontal resolution with 23 vertical levels. Six 10-year (1991–2000) simulations are conducted with the combinations of two land surface schemes (BATS, CLM3.5) and three cumulus convection schemes (Kuo, Grell, MIT). The simulated annual and seasonal climatology of surface temperature and precipitation are compared with CRU observations. The interannual variability of these two parameters is also analyzed. The results indicate that the model simulated climatology is sensitive to the convection as well as land surface parameterization. The analysis of surface temperature (precipitation) climatology indicates that the model with CLM produces warmer (dryer) climatology, particularly over India. The warmer (dryer) climatology is due to the higher sensible heat flux (lower evapotranspiration) in CLM. The model with MIT convection scheme simulated wetter and warmer climatology (higher precipitation and temperature) with smaller Bowen ratio over southern India compared to that with the Grell and Kuo schemes. This indicates that a land surface scheme produces warmer but drier climatology with sensible heating contributing to warming where as a convection scheme warmer but wetter climatology with latent heat contributing to warming. The climatology of surface temperature over India is better simulated by the model with BATS land surface model in combination with MIT convection scheme while the precipitation climatology is better simulated with BATS land surface model in combination with Grell convection scheme. Overall, the modeling system with the combination of Grell convection and BATS land surface scheme provides better climate simulation over the Indian region.     

The climatology of the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model as obtained from a five‐year simulation

Abstract

The climatology of the Canadian Climate Centre atmospheric general circulation model is presented and compared with the observed climatology of the atmosphere. The model climatology is obtained from a simulation over five annual cycles and the results are presented in terms of averages for the four seasons.

The climatology of the model is discussed in terms of zonally and time averaged values of the primary atmospheric variables as well as in terms of the spatial distributions of the important surface parameters and of the rotational and divergent components of the tropospheric flow. Some measure of model variability is also presented.

The model is generally quite successful in reproducing the mean observed climatology of the atmosphere.     

苏州紫金庵雷击原因分析及古建筑防雷技术

分析和总结了紫金庵遭雷击的3个原因:①高大古银杏树成为接闪点,②古银杏树接闪后对周围建筑造成雷电反击,③雷电电磁感应造成室内电路短路。对紫金庵内罗汉堂进行了系统的防雷设计,重点对紫金庵电源架空线直接入户部分进行了防雷整改。从古建筑物自身特点出发,对比分析了古建筑与现代建筑的防雷。古建筑物和现代建筑物一样,也要注重雷电感应方面的防护。古建筑也有一些防雷方法,将防雷与艺术相结合值得现代建筑防雷借鉴。     

GAMIL CliPAS试验对夏季西太平洋副热带高压的预测

利用GAMIL CliPAS"两步法"季度预测试验,检验了后报的1980～1999年北半球夏季西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)的年际变化,检查了Seoul National University(SNU)动力统计预测系统对SST预测准确度,并讨论了影响中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室格点大气模式(GAMIL)对副高预测效果的可能原因.500 hPa位势高度可预报性指数表明西太平洋副高具有较高可预报性.集合平均基本能再现西太平洋副高的变率特征,但最大方差的位置和强度与观测稍有区别.观测证据显示,副高存在2～3年变率和3～5年变率.且2～3年变率比3～5年变率强.GAMIL能够准确预测观测副高的3～5年变率,尽管其强度要强于观测.这与试验所用的预测海温能够很好表现赤道中东太平洋(5.5°S～5.5°N,190.5°E～240.5°E)海温的年际变率有关.同时,GAMIL预测的副高2～3年变率较之观测显著偏弱,这可能与SNU预测的海洋大陆地区(5.5°S～0.5°N,110.5°E～130.5°E)SST的2～3年变率偏弱有关.分析表明,SNU预测海温的这种弱点,与SNU海温统计预测模式所用的历史海温(OISST)本身对海洋大陆地区2～3年变率的刻画能力较弱有关.     

Monthly Anticyclonicity in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Region

Summary The geographical distribution of 13-year anticyclone centres frequency, and averages of monthly anticyclonicity and anticyclone immobility times over southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin for the years 1981–1993 are presented. Monthly changes in anticyclonicity and immobility times are analyzed and discussed. Reference is made to the atmospheric climatology of the study region as well as to some synoptic scale features of its climatology. Comparisons are made with an established synoptic climatology of the region and with relevant climatologies contained in the literature. Finally, reference is made to past work relating to the synoptic climatology of the region and to similar studies for different continental and maritime areas. Received May 8, 1996 Revised February 10, 1997     

中国大陆卫星反演云参数的评估

该文选取１９８３年７月和１９８４年１月份代表夏季和冬季，利用中国地面气象月报的云量资料以及多年平均的地面观测云气修资料，与中国大陆地区ＩＳＣＣＰ卫星反演的去量和云状资料进行了对比分析。参照大气环流和云天气气候特征，从卫星得到的从云状是比较合理的，但干旱沙漠地区的高云量的估计不足，低云估计偏多。     

Estimation of Tigris-Euphrates streamflow from regional paleoenvironmental proxy data

A six thousand year history of streamflow in Mesopotamia is derived from a synthesis of regional paleoenvironmental proxy data. The proxy data are interpreted with consideration to the climatic signals represented in the records and to the temporal resolution of the records. A consideration of modern synoptic climatology suggests the spatial patterns of streamflow-generating precipitation in relation to atmospheric circulation. These patterns provide a framework for the interpretation of streamflow from the regional proxies. Given the nature of the data at hand, only a low frequency signal is reconstructed. Assessment of the role of small scale climatic fluctuations as a forcing function of population dynamics must await the availability of finer resolution environmental data.