The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

Marine risk assessment: linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in the North Sea

The fate of linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in estuaries and coastal areas of the North Sea has been characterized with simple environmental models. The predicted concentration range in the estuaries around the North Sea (0.9-9 microg LAS l(-1)) was validated by monitoring data (1-9 microg LAS l(-1)). In offshore sites of the North Sea, it is estimated--and experimentally verified for a few sites--that the LAS concentration is below analytical detection limit (i.e., 0.5 microg LAS l(-1)). The effects of LAS on marine organisms have been reviewed. For short-term acute tests, there was no significant difference (p = 0.83) between the mean LC50 values of freshwater and marine organisms (mainly pelagic species tested, 4.1 and 4.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively). For longer-term chronic tests, it appeared that the sensitivity (mean no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) value) of marine and freshwater organisms (0.3 and 2.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively) was significantly different pt-test = 0.007). The predicted no-effect-concentrations (PNEC) were 360 and 31 microg LAS l(-1), for freshwater and marine pelagic communities, respectively. Given that the maximum expected estuarine and marine concentrations are 3 to > 30 times lower than the PNEC, the risk of LAS to pelagic organisms in these environments is judged to be low.     

The OSPAR Convention: 25 years of North Sea protection

The legislative framework for the environmental protection of the North Sea has developed extensively during the past two decades. This framework includes proposals within national, regional, European and global initiatives. This paper describes the development of the Oslo and Paris Commissions and their relationship with the North Sea Ministerial Conferences. The new OSPAR Convention, signed in Paris in 1992, is described as a model for protection frameworks for other regional seas.     

Assessing impacts of invasive phytoplankton: The Baltic Sea case

There is an increasing understanding and requirement to take into account the effects of invasive alien species (IAS) in environmental quality assessments. While IAS are listed amongst the most important factors threatening marine biodiversity, information on their impacts remains unquantified, especially for phytoplankton species. This study attempts to assess the impacts of invasive alien phytoplankton in the Baltic Sea during 1980-2008. A bioinvasion impact assessment method (BPL - biopollution level index) was applied to phytoplankton monitoring data collected from eleven sub-regions of the Baltic Sea. BPL takes into account abundance and distribution range of an alien species and the magnitude of the impact on native communities, habitats and ecosystem functioning. Of the 12 alien/cryptogenic phytoplankton species recorded in the Baltic Sea only one (the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum) was categorized as an IAS, causing a recognizable environmental effect.     

Environmental responsibility and co-operation between Baltic and North Sea municipalities: Part 1: The Baltic Eco-Cities programme and its pilot function for the municipalities bordering the North Sea

National governments have greater legislative authority than local governments in marine environmental protection, on the global basis, but local governments both invest more money than national governments in environmental protection and often execute more environmental policies. When national governments have established regional marine resources management programmes, e.g. the Baltic, the Mediterranean, or the Great Lakes region, the final remediation planning responsibility has ultimately been delegated to local authorities.

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 did not consider this dichotomy and the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) and a coalition of other local government associations are considered to have a role within the two sectors, national governments and non-governmental organizations. Chapter 17 of Agenda 21 on Protection of the Oceans gives little attention to the primary role presently being played by the local authorities in controlling marine pollution. Chapter 17 states that 70% of the marine pollution comes from land-based sources, and that more than half of the world's population is settled in coastal communities. But the Chapter does not present the fact that local authorities are the primary force in organizing and managing the coastal settlements concerning the greatest sources of marine pollution. The role of local authorities in Agenda 21 and the partnership between the international community and local authorities to achieve Agenda 21 objectives must be defined.     

Concentrations of Microelements in the Caspian Sea and Different Occurrence Types of Dissolved Elements in Marine Environment (Based on Expedition Data of 1995)

Mean concentrations of microelements Mn, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ba, Fe, Cu, and U in the Caspian Sea evaluated based on the results of water sampling in 1995 are given. The obtained values are checked against the requirements to the characteristics of water bodies used for fishery.     

The distribution of several organochlorine compounds in the Baltic Sea

Summary On a cruise, covering the whole Baltic Sea area, in May/June 1983, from the Kattegat through the Belt Sea, the Baltic Proper, and the Gulfs of Finland and Bothnia, investigations concerning the distribution of several organochlorine compounds were made. In accordance with the water exchange in the Kattegat and Belt Sea, a vertical stratification can be seen for -, -, -HCH and DDT — with higher concentrations in the outflowing surface water with low salinity and lower values in the inflowing bottom water with high salinity. The bottom water concentrations in the Kattegat and Belt Sea are increasing from North to South by mixture with surface water. East of the Darss Sill, the distribution pattern becomes more homogeneous with only slight differences in the average mean concentrations between the various basins forming the Baltic Sea.

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Über die Verteilung einiger Organochlorverbindungen in der Ostsee

Zusammenfassung Im Wasser des Kattegats, der Beltsee, der zentralen Ostsee, des Finnischen Meerbusens und der Bottensee wurden im Mai und Juni 1983 Untersuchungen auf Organochlorverbindungen vorgenommen. In Übereinstimmung mit den Verhältnissen des Wasseraustausches im Kattegat und der Beltsee kann man für -, -, -HCH und DDT eine vertikale Schichtung erkennen — mit höheren Konzentrationen im abfließenden Oberflächenwasser mit niedrigem Salzgehalt und niedrigeren Werten im einströmenden Bodenwasser mit hohem Salzgehalt. Durch Vermischung mit dem Oberflächenwasser steigen die Konzentrationen im Bodenwasser im Kattegat und der Beltsee von Norden nach Süden hin an. Östlich der Darsser Schwelle ergibt sich eine gleichmäßigere Verteilung mit nur geringen Unterschieden in den mittleren Konzentrationen innerhalb der einzelnen Becken, die die Ostsee bilden.

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De la distribution de quelques composants organochlorés dans la mer Baltique

Résumé En mai et juin 1983 des recherches sur la distribution de plusieurs composants organochlorés furent effectuées durant une campagne couvrant le Kattegat, les Belts, la mer Baltique centrale, les Golfes de Finlande et de Bothnie. En accord avec les échanges des eaux dans le Kattegat et les Belts, une stratification verticale de l'-, -, -HCH et DDT fut mise en évidence, avec une concentration plus forte dans les eaux superficielles sortantes et des valeurs plus faibles dans les eaux de fond entrantes. A l'Est du seuil de Drss, la répartition des échantillons devient plus homogène avec seulement de légères différences des concentrations moyennes entre les différents bassins qui forment la mer Baltique.

     

Evidence of chromosomal damage in common eiders (Somateria mollissima) from the Baltic Sea

Common eiders nesting in the Baltic Sea are exposed to generally high levels of contaminants including potentially genotoxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorines. Blood samples were collected from eiders at eight sites in the Baltic Sea and two sites in the Beaufort Sea. DNA content variation was estimated using the flow cytometric method, and subsequently utilized as a biomarker of genetic damage. We observed no significant differences in genetic damage among populations within either the Baltic or Beaufort Seas. However, eider populations from the Baltic Sea had significantly elevated estimates of genetic damage compared to populations from the Beaufort Sea.     

The science and management of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea: natural history, present threats and future challenges

The review provides an overview of the features of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea in their European geographical and socio-political context. To reach sustainability in the wider sense the common society has to meet the 7 tenets - that management actions have to be environmentally sustainable, economically viable, technologically feasible, socially desirable (or at least tolerable), legally permissible, administratively achievable and politically expedient. Each of these are explained and discussed using examples from the two seas including pollution control, physical resource exploitation (such as aggregates, habitat loss, renewable energy and oil and gas), and biological resources exploitation (fisheries and aquaculture). This paper discusses the similarities between the areas in terms of their management regimes, population in the catchment, history of anthropogenic changes, derivation of objectives against a wealth of information and understanding, and the history of management and control. In contrast, the differences between the areas centre on their differing hydrographic regimes, including residence and flushing times, biological features, nature of the pollutants discharged, dominant types of fishing and type of control indicated by a predominant Eastern Bloc for the Baltic as opposed to European Union control in the North Sea. The review ends with an assessment of future challenges and examples of the way in which environmental problems have been addressed in the two areas. In particular, it sets the features against a background of management designed to achieve the Ecosystem Approach within the prevailing European marine management framework.     

Consequences of coastal upwelling events on physical and chemical patterns in the central Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

The consequences of a coastal upwelling event on physical and chemical patterns were studied in the central Gulf of Finland. Weekly mapping of hydrographical and -chemical fields were carried out across the Gulf between Tallinn and Helsinki in July–August 2006. In each survey, vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were recorded at 27 stations and water samples for chemical analyses (PO₄³⁻, NO₂⁻+NO₃⁻) were collected at 14 stations along the transect. An ordinary distribution of hydrophysical and -chemical variables with the seasonal thermocline at the depths of 10–20 m was observed in the beginning of the measurements in July. Nutrient concentrations in the upper mixed layer were below the detection limit and nutriclines were located just below or in the lower part of the thermocline. In the first half of August, a very intense upwelling event occurred near the southern coast of the Gulf when waters with low temperature and high salinity from the intermediate layer surfaced. High nutrient concentrations were measured in the upwelled water – 0.4 μmol l⁻¹ of phosphates and 0.6 μmol l⁻¹ of nitrates+nitrites. We estimated the amount of nutrients transported into the surface layer as 238–290 tons of phosphorus (P)-PO₄³⁻ and 175–255 tons of N-NO_x for a 12 m thick, 20 km wide and 100 km long coastal stretch. Taking into account a characteristic along-shore extension of the upwelling of 200 km, the phosphate-phosphorus amount is approximately equal to the average total monthly riverine load of phosphorus to the Gulf of Finland. It is shown that TS-characteristics of water masses and vertical distribution of nutrients along the study transect experienced drastic changes caused by the upwelling event in the entire studied water column. TS-analysis of profiles obtained before and during the upwelling event suggests that while welled up, the cold intermediate layer water was mixed with the water from the upper mixed layer with a share of 85% and 15%. We suggest that the coastal upwelling events contribute remarkably to the vertical mixing of waters in the Gulf of Finland. Intrusions of nutrient-rich waters along the inclined isopycnal surfaces in the vicinity of upwelling front were revealed. The upwelling event widened the separation of phosphocline and nitracline which in turn prevented surfacing of nitrate+nitrite-nitrogen during the next upwelling event observed a week after the upwelling relaxation. A suggestion is made that such widening of nutricline separation caused by similar upwelling events in early summer could create favourable conditions for late summer cyanobacterial blooms.     

Spatial Distribution of Carbonaceous Aerosol in the Southeastern Baltic Sea Region (Event of Grass Fires)

The aerosol chemical composition in air masses affected by large vegetation fires transported from the Kaliningrad region (Russia) and southeast regions (Belarus and Ukraine) during early spring (March 2014) was characterized at the remote background site of Preila, Lithuania. In this study, the chemical composition of the particulate matter was studied by high temporal resolution instruments, including an Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) and a seven-wavelength aethalo-meter. Air masses were transported from twenty to several hundred kilometres, arriving at the measurement station after approximately half a day of transport. The concentration-weighted trajectory analysis suggests that organic aerosol particles are mainly transported over the Baltic Sea and the continent (southeast of Belarus). Results show that a significant fraction of the vegetation burning organic aerosol is transformed into oxidised forms in less than a half-day. Biomass burning aerosol (BBOA) was quantified from the ACSM data using a positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis, while its spatial distribution was evaluated using air mass clustering approach.     

The Baltic Sea Experiment BALTEX: A brief overview and some selected results of the authors

The mechanisms responsible for the transfer of energy and water within the climate system are under worldwide investigation within the framework of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) to improve the predictability of natural and man-made climate changes at short and long ranges and their impact on water resources. Five continental-scale experiments have been established within GEWEX to enable a more complete coupling between atmospheric and hydrological models. One of them is the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX).In this paper, the goals and structure of BALTEX are outlined. A short overview of measuring and modelling strategies is given. Atmospheric and hydrological model results of the authors only are presented. These include also the validation of precipitation using station measurements as well as validation of modelled cloud cover with cloud estimates from satellite data. Furthermore, results of a large-scale grid based hydrological model to be coupled to atmospheric models are presented.This research has never been possible without the contribution of research groups and operational institutions from all 10 member countries. We concentrate here on results obtained at the GKSS research center.