Towards an equitable global climate change regime: compatibility with Article 2 of the Climate Change Convention and the link with sustainable development

Abstract

In this paper we argue that the discussion on how to get to an equitable global climate change regime requires a long-term context. Some key dimensions of this discussion are responsibility, capability and development needs. Each of these, separately or in combination, has been used in designing schemes for differentiation of commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many implementation problems of these proposals are often side-stepped. In particular, some proposals may be incompatible with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. they are unlikely to keep the option open of long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at relatively low levels. We present some evidence that shifting the emphasis from emission reduction to sustainable development needs can contribute significantly to relieving the threat of human-induced climate change.     

The role of voluntary commitments in realizing the promise of the Blue Economy

Voluntary (or non-binding) commitments offer an action-oriented mechanism for addressing interconnected, complex and pressing issues. Though not designed to replace negotiated or binding outcomes, voluntary commitments can offer a critical tool in currently ungoverned or under-governed systems. The Blue Economy is an example of a rapidly evolving agenda where formal governance arrangements are at best nascent, in part due to the trans-border nature of issues and prominent involvement of multiple types of actors. As such voluntary commitments provide an important mechanism through which to monitor the evolution of the concept and identify gaps or shortfalls in its implementation. Our analysis of global voluntary commitments on the Blue Economy made to recent high-profile ocean futures meetings, found a trend towards capacity development, research, and investment in emerging and larger scale sectors such as offshore aquaculture and renewable energy. A concurrent focus was on securitizing, regulating or diverting effort from historically significant fisheries sectors. European organizations are playing a dominant role in Blue Economy commitments, with a notable absence of commitments from major Blue Economy powers such as China and India. We identify a number of gaps and shortfalls, particularly in relation to active consideration of social equity in the Blue Economy. We identify a range of recommendations on how these deficiencies may be addressed through a greater focus on a broader suite of objectives and a more inclusive approach to ocean meetings.     

Differentiation of mitigation commitments: the multi-sector convergence approach

Abstract

This paper presents a new sector-based framework—called the multi-sector convergence approach—for negotiating binding national GHG mitigation targets after the first budget period defined by the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). The major characteristics of this approach are that: (i) it is based on the distinction of different sectors within the national economy; (ii) it prescribes that, in principle, the amount of per capita emission assignments should ultimately converge to the same level for all countries; (iii) it accounts for differences in national circumstances by offering the opportunity to grant additional emission allowances to countries facing specific circumstances that justify higher emission assignments; and (iv) it offers a framework for negotiating mitigation commitments among parties of the UNFCCC, including a (gradual) participation of developing countries that pass a certain threshold level of per capita emissions. In addition to briefly discussing the underlying principles of promising proposals to differentiate future GHG mitigation commitments, the paper outlines the methodology and major characteristics of the multi-sector convergence (MSC) approach, followed by some numerical illustrations. The paper is concluded by a preliminary assessment of the MSC approach.     

《联合国气候变化框架公约》适应谈判历程回顾与展望

减缓和适应是应对气候变化的互补性策略,但在《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）的谈判中,适应在很长一段时期都处于减缓的从属地位。《公约》20多年的适应谈判进程可划为早期缓慢发展、科学和技术讨论、适应与减缓并重、增强适应行动和全面适应行动5个阶段,呈现出由无到有、重要性不断增强的特点。这一特点反映了全球对气候变化影响和适应重要性认识的不断深入及适应气候变化挑战的不断增强。未来适应谈判将聚焦于如何通过《公约》现有机制增强行动及如何增加适应资金以满足发展中国家的适应需求。     

Who participates in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and why: A quantitative assessment of the national representation of authors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of international representation in the activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using expert authorship counts by country in each of the four IPCC assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007). Overall, we find that 45% of countries, all Non-Annex 1, have never had authors participate in the IPCC process; on the other hand, European and North American experts are make up more than 75% of all authors (N = 4394). Generalized linear models using negative binomial regression were used to quantitatively estimate the effect of a number of socio-economic, environmental and procedural factors influencing country-level participation in the IPCC. Per capita gross domestic product, population, English-speaking status, and levels of tertiary education were all found to be statistically significant drivers of authorship counts. In particular, participation by authors from English-speaking Non-Annex 1 countries is 2.5 times greater than those that are non-English speaking. Regionally small island nations of Oceania were the most severely under-represented group. South American and Asian countries had fewer authors, and African countries had more authors than what might be expected on the basis of demographic and socio-economic data. These differences across nations partly reflect existing scientific capacity that will be slow to change. However, the on-going under-representation of developing country scientists in the IPCC, particularly in the assessment of climate science (WGI) and climate mitigation (WGIII) warrants greater efforts to close the capacity gap.     

《巴黎协定》下市场机制建设中的风险与对策

《巴黎协定》（《协定》）第6条设立了合作方法和可持续发展机制两种市场机制。受国家自主贡献（NDC）减排目标多样性和未来减排努力不确定性等因素的影响,《协定》下市场机制在设计和实施中面临着巨大的风险和挑战,主要包括缺乏稳健的核算规则、不恰当的额外性评估带来的环境完整性风险以及经济激励下缔约方不积极扩大减排目标覆盖范围、提高减排行动力度的风险。为了降低风险给全球减排行动可能带来的负面影响,必须建立稳健的核算规则,在额外性评估中合理考虑东道国NDC下的减排承诺,并通过设立参与资质要求等方式确保市场机制促进缔约方扩大减排目标覆盖范围。建议中国结合国内碳市场的发展现状,从识别《协定》下市场机制对我国的要求和影响、进行相关能力建设、设立严格的监管措施和建立所需机构等方面入手,为我国有效参与做好充分准备。     

Pathways for climate resilient development: Human well-being within a safe and just space in the 21st century

The concept of climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) introduced in IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report remains poorly conceptualised. We have attempted to deepen the conceptualisation of climate resilient development (CRD) or climate compatible development, while charting its pathways through fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs)-based simulations aided by knowledge based on stakeholders’ insights. We conceptualise CRD as a development embracing mitigation, adaptation and inclusive sustainable development to advance planetary health and well-being for all. The FCMs-based simulations demonstrate that appropriate enabling conditions are critical to the achievement of CRD, the most important of them being (i) the ethics, values, and worldviews shaping CRD’s directions by framing appropriate climate narratives and action; (ii) partnerships and commitment to finance and technology by the governments; (iii) interactions between the actors and arenas of engagement facilitating CRD decisions and actions; and (iv) dimensions of governance at multiple levels involving policy, institutions and practice. Citizens’ defence against climate change as a human right, along with planetary health and well-being, demands synergies while implementing mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development. Short-term decisions and actions related to mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development could have long-term effects on CRDPs. CRD could entail a societal transformation to eudaimonic living for ensuring universal well-being. The findings of this research could have profound implications for multilateral negotiations.     

全球气候变暖背景下登陆我国台风特征的分析

利用1949-2002年西北太平洋热带气旋、登陆我国台风和全球地面温度资料，对登陆我国台风的频数、强度以及登陆位置的年际变化，特别是趋势特征进行了分析，并与西北太平洋台风的变化特征作了对比。结果表明：在全球气候变暖背景下，我国登陆台风频数的减少趋势没有西北太平洋台风频数的减少趋势强；登陆台风的平均强度和极端强度均有减弱趋势，极端强度的减弱趋势尤为明显，但其强度弱于西北太平洋台风。在1968-2002年全球明显增暖时段，我国台风登陆位置偏向我国中部，西北太平洋台风在生命史中强度达最强时的位置有向北移动的趋势。     

Assessing the Impacts of Eurasian Snow Conditions on Climate Predictability with a Global Climate Model

On the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model (Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model, hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM), the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated. The predictive skill of sea level pressures (SLP) and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model. Furthermore, the model skill in reproducing the interannual variation and spatial distribution of the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over China was improved by applying realistic (prescribed) Eurasian snow conditions. The predictive skill of the summer precipitation in China was low; however, when realistic snow conditions were employed, the predictability increased, illustrating the effectiveness of the application of realistic Eurasian snow conditions. Overall, the results of the present study suggested that Eurasian snow conditions have a significant effect on dynamical seasonal prediction in China. When Eurasian snow conditions in the global climate model (GCM) can be more realistically represented, the predictability of summer climate over China increases.     

Declining Temporal Effectiveness of Carbon Sequestration: Implications for Compliance with the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change

Carbon sequestration is increasingly being promoted as a potential response to the risks of unrestrained emissions of CO₂, either in place of or as a complement to reductions in the use of fossil fuels. However, the potential role of carbon sequestration as an (at-least partial) substitute for reductions in fossil fuel use can be properly evaluated only in the context of a long-term acceptable limit (or range of limits) to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, taking into account the response of the entire carbon cycle to artificial sequestration. Under highly stringent emission-reduction scenarios for non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, 450 ppmv CO₂ is the equivalent, in terms of radiative forcing of climate,to a doubling of the pre-industrial concentration of CO₂. It is argued in this paper that compliance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (henceforth, the UNFCCC) implies that atmospheric CO₂ concentration should be limited, or quickly returned to, a concentration somewhere below 450 ppmv. A quasi-one-dimensional coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to assess the response of the carbon cycle to idealized carbon sequestration scenarios. The impact on atmospheric CO₂ concentration of sequestering a given amount of CO₂ that would otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere, either in deep geological formations or in the deep ocean, rapidly decreases over time. This occurs as a result of a reduction in the rate of absorption of atmospheric CO₂ by the natural carbon sinks (the terrestrial biosphere and oceans) in response to the slower buildup of atmospheric CO₂ resulting from carbon sequestration. For 100 years of continuous carbon sequestration, the sequestration fraction (defined as the reduction in atmospheric CO₂ divided by the cumulative sequestration) decreases to 14% 1000 years after the beginning of sequestration in geological formations with no leakage, and to 6% 1000 years after the beginning of sequestration in the deep oceans. The difference (8% of cumulative sequestration) is due to an eflux from the ocean to the atmosphere of some of the carbon injected into the deep ocean.The coupled climate-carbon cycle model is also used to assess the amount of sequestration needed to limit or return the atmospheric CO₂ concentration to 350–400 ppmv after phasing out all use of fossil fuels by no later than 2100. Under such circumstances, sequestration of 1–2 Gt C/yr by the latter part of this century could limit the peak CO₂ concentration to 420–460 ppmv, depending on how rapidly use of fossilfuels is terminated and the strength of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. To draw down the atmospheric CO₂ concentration requires creating negative emissions through sequestration of CO₂ released as a byproduct of the production of gaseous fuels from biomass primary energy. Even if fossil fuel emissions fall to zero by 2100, it will be difficult to create a large enough negative emission using biomass energy to return atmospheric CO₂ to 350 ppmv within 100 years of its peak. However, building up soil carbon could help in returning CO₂ to 350 ppmv within 100 years of its peak. In any case, a 100-year period of climate corresponding to the equivalent of a doubled-CO₂ concentration would occur before temperatures decreased. Nevertheless, returning the atmospheric CO₂concentration to 350 ppmv would reduce longterm sea level rise due to thermal expansion and might be sufficient to prevent the irreversible total melting of the Greenland ice sheet, collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and abrupt changes in ocean circulation that might otherwise occur given a prolonged doubled-CO₂ climate. Recovery of coral reef ecosystems, if not already driven to extinction, could begin.     

Global Land Surface Climate Analysis Based on the Calculation of a Modified Bowen Ratio

A modified Bowen ratio(BRm),the sign of which is determined by the direction of the surface sensible heat flux,was used to represent the major divisions in climate across the globe,and the usefulness of this approach was evaluated. Five reanalysis datasets and the results of an offline land surface model were investigated. We divided the global continents into five major BRm zones using the climatological means of the sensible and latent heat fluxes during the period 1980–2010:extremely cold,extremely wet,semi-wet,semi-arid and extremely arid. These zones had BRm ranges of(-∞,0),(0,0.5),(0.5,2),(2,10) and(10,+∞),respectively. The climatological mean distribution of the Bowen ratio zones corresponded well with the K ¨oppen-like climate classification,and it reflected well the seasonal variation for each subdivision of climate classification. The features of climate change over the mean climatological BRm zones were also investigated. In addition to giving a map-like classification of climate,the BRm also reflects temporal variations in different climatic zones based on land surface processes. An investigation of the coverage of the BRm zones showed that the extremely wet and extremely arid regions expanded,whereas a reduction in area was seen for the semi-wet and semi-arid regions in boreal spring during the period 1980–2010. This indicates that the arid regions may have become drier and the wet regions wetter over this period of time.     

全球变暖背景下青藏高原夏季气温在对流层上下反相变化及其与降水和环流的关系

本文利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及中国596个测站月降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、经验正交函数分解(EOF)、相关分析、合成分析等方法,对青藏高原夏季对流层气温垂直变化及其与降水和环流的关系进行了分析。气温垂直变化特征分析表明:自1971年以来,青藏高原夏季对流层低层至对流层中上部气温呈现显著增暖趋势,对流层上部气温呈现显著变冷趋势,高原对流层低层至中上部气温及对流层上部气温在年际、年代际尺度上均呈较显著负相关,且均存在2~4 a及8~13 a的周期;夏季青藏高原地区沿27.5°N~40°N平均的气温距平垂直分布的EOF分解第一模态特征向量在对流层表现为"下降温上增温"的反相变化,其时间系数呈显著负趋势,且存在1978年及1994年的突变点。高原夏季气温在对流层的上下反相变化与我国夏季降水的关系在年际、年代际尺度上均显示:当高原对流层低层至对流层中上部升温而对流层上部降温时,我国夏季降水表现为南方型,其中以江南至华南地区降水显著偏多而我国东北地区降水显著偏少为主要分布特征;另外,长江流域的局部地区及我国西北的部分地区降水也明显偏少,而华北东部的局部地区、青藏高原中部及东部地区以及新疆西北部地区降水明显偏多;降水异常分布在年代际尺度上比年际尺度更显著。环流分析显示:当高原对流层低层至对流层中上部升温而对流层上部降温时东亚中高纬度地区为异常高压控制,中低纬度地区受异常低压影响。环流场与降水分布有较好的配置关系。     

Numerical Experiment for the Impact of the Ozone Hole over Antarctica on the Global Climate

A numerical experiment has been carried out with IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) 9-layer general circulation model to investigate the influence of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on the global climate. The results show that the changes of total amount of ozone over higher latitude and polar region of the Southern Hemisphere affect not only the climate in the Southern Hemisphere, but also that in the Northern Hemisphere significantly. In the next spring, although the total amount of ozone over Antarctica has returned to the normal value, the influences of Ozone Hole still exist. Suppported by LASG and the National Key Project of Fundamental Research “Climate Dynamics and Climate Prediction Theory.≓     

Numerical Experiment for the Impact of the Ozone Hole over Antarctica on the Global Climate

ＮｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌＥｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔｆｏｒｔｈｅＩｍｐａｃｔｏｆｔｈｅＯｚｏｎｅＨｏｌｅｏｖｅｒＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃａｏｎｔｈｅＧｌｏｂａｌＣｌｉｍａｔｅ①ＣｈｅｎＹｕｅｊｕａｎ（陈月娟）,ＺｈａｎｇＨｏｎｇ（张弘）Ｄｅｐｔ．ｏｆＥａｒｔｈａｎｄＳｐ...     

Governmentality and the climate-development nexus: The case of the EU Global Climate Change Alliance

This article uses a governmentality perspective to uncover the power effects of the external climate change adaptation assistance provided by the European Union (EU) through its flagship initiative in this regard: the Global Climate Change Alliance. By drawing upon a body of literature that conceptualizes the established international architecture in this regard as rooted in power relations, this article opens up our current perspective of the EU as an international climate actor. An analysis of policy documents and targeted semi-structured interviews reveals that the EU discursively emphasizes the responsibility of partner countries to manage risk and become ‘resilient’ to climate impacts, while downplaying the transformative potential of adaptation for development. We see this dynamic further reflected in GCCA policy techniques, which promote the production of quantified and depoliticized knowledge on adaptation. This in its turn further guides the allocation of GCCA support and is instrumentalized in order to establish a stable identity for the organization and reproduce the EU as a climate leader in this regard.     

全球气候变化背景下的西北地区生态环境建设、可持续发展

本文通过对西北地区气候与生态环境、可持续发展的调查研究，提出我国应高度重视全球气候变化的影响，要在气候变化的背景下，通过人类的有序活动促进我国生态环境建设和经济社会的可持续发展，实现人和自然的和谐共存。     

Mangrove conversion and aquaculture development in Vietnam: A remote sensing-based approach for evaluating the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands

Remote sensing data have been proposed as a potential tool for monitoring environmental treaties. However, to date, satellite images have been used primarily for visualization, but not for systematic monitoring of treaty compliance. In this paper, we present a methodology to operationalize the use of satellite imagery to assess the impact of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. The approach uses time series analysis of landscape pattern metrics to assess land cover conditions before and after designation of Ramsar status to monitor compliance with the Convention. We apply the methodology to two case studies in Vietnam and evaluate the success of Ramsar using four metrics: (1) total mangrove extent; (2) mangrove fragmentation; (3) mangrove density; and (4) aquaculture extent. Results indicate that the Ramsar Convention did not slow the development of aquaculture in the region, but total mangrove extent has remained relatively constant, primarily due to replanting efforts. Yet despite these restoration efforts, the mangroves have become fragmented and survival rates for replanting efforts are low. The methodology is cost effective and especially useful to evaluate Ramsar sites that rely mainly on self-reporting methods and where third parties are not actively involved in the monitoring process. Finally, the case study presented in this paper demonstrates that with the appropriate satellite record, in situ measurements and field observations, remote sensing is a promising technology that can help monitor compliance with international environmental agreements.     

Towards a better understanding of gendered power in small scale fisheries of the Western Indian Ocean

Scholarship on gender in fisheries is not new. However, while there are many studies on the context and politics of gender and fisheries, understanding how power influences gender equality remains understudied, especially in the Western Indian Ocean. Based on evidence gathered from an interdisciplinary set of literature, including sectoral policies, this article provides nuanced insight at rethinking - how gendered-power dynamics constrain and enable choices and opportunities for addressing gender inequality in small-scale fisheries. Compelling evidence shows that a gendered-power dynamic is crucial for renegotiating gender equality with social norms and politics, including challenging simplistic views on poverty, vulnerability, and subordination of women. The article presents a latent chance for greater reflexivity among development practitioners, researchers, and policymakers on the politics of and transformation towards gender equality in small-scale fisheries.     

From Climate to Global Change: Following the Footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's Research

To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including:(1) the role of climate change in global change;(2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change;(3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and(4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.