Regional Variation of the ω Values in the Circum-Pacific Belt

—A data set of earthquakes which occurred in the circum-Pacific regions has been used to compute the ω values. This parameter is obtained through Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values and is well known as upper bound magnitude. The results show relatively higher ω values in South America, Central America and Mexico, than in the western part of the circum-Pacific belt. The results are interpreted in terms of the different mechanical structure (heterogeneity) of the materials in the eastern and western parts of the examined area.     

Calculation of b value and its application in earthquake prediction

The improved calculation method ofb value is presented in this paper. The method can enlarge the role of earthquake occurrence frequency inb value calculation and thus increase theb value variation amplitude. In this case, the combination structure variation between earthquake magnitudes and corresponding frequencies could be shown clearly. According to the calculation and analysis for limited mainshocks in the complete seismicity data of selected monitored area with assigned consistent lowest magnitude, the precursor anomaly features, quantitative indexes and the calculation formula of relative subject function ofb value variation have been preliminarily worked out. The prediction in short period (from 1 to 3 months) for damage earthquakes in the monitored area mentioned above can be put forward on the basis of the results of quantitative calculation and analysis.     

张家口-渤海断裂带西段及中西段b值时空扫描

张家口-渤海断裂带作为华北平原地区重要的活动断裂带,地震活动频繁,是我国地震监测预测重点区域之一。本文选取该断裂带西段及中西段1970-2016年的地震目录,采用最大似然法进行时间扫描,分析显示研究区b值为0.28-1.52,其随时间变化的特点是在大地震发生前降至最低,震后逐渐恢复;研究区空间扫描结果显示,该区b值的平均值为0.93,其中怀安-万全盆地北缘断裂和蓟运河断裂平均b值较低,反映该区域应力水平较高。综合以上结果,本次研究揭示出研究区地震危险性的时间和空间差异,为对研究区地震危险性评价提供基础数据。     

Determining the time and space domains for estimating b value in seismic zoning

To take the seismic zone that includes the great shock with M _s≥8.2 as the statistical unit of estimating b value can often lead to more large variance, because the seismogenic zone of the great shock with M _s≥8.2 are larger than that delineated in general seismic zone. Two-level statistical units are considered in this paper. The seismic province is the first level unit that is suitable for group of earthquakes including the great shock of M _s≥8.5. A seismic province can be divided into several seismic zones. They can be taken as the second level unit for group of quakes in which the super magnitude of the greatest shock do not exceed 8. Because of the nonstationarity in time of seismic activity, the unbalancedness of data and differential of seismic temporal series feature in different areas need to be considered when we select the time period for estimating b value. According to local conditions, the time period is selected at one’s discretion in order to reflect seismicity level of this statistical unit in future 100 years. Contribution No. 98A02039, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau, China.     

Recent seismicity in Northeast India and its adjoining region

Recent seismicity in the northeast India and its adjoining region exhibits different earthquake mechanisms – predominantly thrust faulting on the eastern boundary, normal faulting in the upper Himalaya, and strike slip in the remaining areas. A homogenized catalogue in moment magnitude, M _W, covering a period from 1906 to 2006 is derived from International Seismological Center (ISC) catalogue, and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) database. Owing to significant and stable earthquake recordings as seen from 1964 onwards, the seismicity in the region is analyzed for the period with spatial distribution of magnitude of completeness m _t, b value, a value, and correlation fractal dimension D _C. The estimated value of m _t is found to vary between 4.0 and 4.8. The a value is seen to vary from 4.47 to 8.59 while b value ranges from 0.61 to 1.36. Thrust zones are seen to exhibit predominantly lower b value distribution while strike-slip and normal faulting regimes are associated with moderate to higher b value distribution. D _C is found to vary from 0.70 to 1.66. Although the correlation between spatial distribution of b value and D _C is seen predominantly negative, positive correlations can also be observed in some parts of this territory. A major observation is the strikingly negative correlation with low b value in the eastern boundary thrust region implying a possible case of extending asperity. Incidentally, application of box counting method on fault segments of the study region indicates comparatively higher fractal dimension, D, suggesting an inclination towards a planar geometrical coverage in the 2D spatial extent. Finally, four broad seismic source zones are demarcated based on the estimated spatial seismicity patterns in collaboration with the underlying active fault networks. The present work appraises the seismicity scenario in fulfillment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment in this earthquake province of the country.     

On the physical essence of the b value for AE of rock tests and natural earthquakes in terms of fracture mechanics

The problem of physical essence of theb value forAE of rock tests and natural earthquakes has been a controversial topic during the past two decades. In the present paper the order and energy of each microfracturing of the microcrack system existing in a rock specimen is discussed from the viewpoint of fracture mechanics, then the whole series ofAE and subsequently the value ofb are determined. The order of microfracturing depends on the parametersKei/Kci whereKei is the effective stress intensity factor of thei-th microcrack andKci is the fracture toughness in the site of thei-th crack. The energy of eachAE can be expressed asηi ∫ loili Gids whereG is the energy release rate of microcarck,loi andli are the original and final crack lengths respectively andηi is the emanating efficiency for thei-th crack. If we assume that the distribution density function of microcrack lengthl isp(l)=Bl−v whereB andγ are constants, then the expressionb=3γ/2 can be deduced. Hence, we have come to the conclusion that the value ofb mirrors essentially the “crack-system-configuration” of the material, which means the distribution of the sizes, shapes and orientations of microcracks over space as well as the distribution of the other relevant physical parameters such as fracture toughness, friction coefficient, etc. Our conclusion is somewhat similar in character to Mogi’s. He concluded thet the heterogeneity of the material plays the most important role in determining the value ofb. The term heterogeneity of course covers the idea of “crack-system-configuration, but we think that our view has a little bit deeper insight to the problem than that of Mogi. This subject is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Seismic risk of circum-pacific earthquakes I. Strain energy release

Commonly used earthquake “whole process” frequency - magnitude and strain energy - magnitude laws are merged to obtain an analytic expression for an upper bound magnitude to regional earthquake occurrenceM ₃, which is expressed primarily in terms of the annual maximum magnitudeM ₁ and the magnitude equivalent of the annual average total strain energy releaseM ₂. Values ofM ₃ are also estimated graphically from cumulative strain energy release diagrams. Both methods are illustrated by application to the high seismicity of the circum-Pacific belt, using Duda’s (1965) data and regionalisation. Values ofM ₃ obtained analytically, with their uncertainties, are in agreement with those obtained graphically. Empirical relations are then obtained betweenM ₁,M ₂, andM ₃, which could be of general assistance in regional seismic risk considerations if they are found to be of a universal nature. For instance.M ₃ andM ₂ differ by one magnitude unit in subregions of the circum-Pacific.     

古登堡-里希特定律中的b值统计样本量研究

b值是研究地震活动的重要指标,其广泛应用于地震危险性分析和地震预测研究之中,与实际资料的完整性、样本量的大小、计算方法等因素有着重要的关系。常见的b值计算方法有最小二乘法和最大似然法,样本量的大小对这2种方法影响很大。本文利用蒙特卡罗模拟地震目录和汾渭地震带实际目录作为样本,从中抽取不同大小的样本量进行计算,研究不同样本量下这2种方法计算得到的b值与设定值或真实值之间的差别。结果表明,最小二乘法需要的最低样本量为1000,最大似然法为200;当样本量达不到要求时,计算出的b值是不可靠的;由于对样本量的要求不同,前者适用于计算区域的整体b值,而后者在研究某区域b值在时间轴上的变化方面更有优势。本研究为确定2种b值计算方法对样本量的最低要求提供了参考依据。     

川东南长宁地区地震活动及b值演化特征

利用全国统一目录和流动台站目录,研究了四川盆地东南部长宁地区的地震活动特征和b值的空间分布特征.研究结果显示,长宁地区的地震活动在时间上呈现明显的分段特征,地震活动在2015年后明显增强;在空间上,长宁地区的地震活动主要集中在以28.3°N为界限的南、北2个地区,对于这2个区域的b值演化,计算结果显示出不同的分段特征....     

Maximum likelihood estimation of Gutenberg-Richterb parameter for uncertain magnitude values

The maximum likelihood estimation of theb parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter relation is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude. An interval which contains the real unknown magnitude is used rather than the uncertain magnitude itself. The proposed approach is very flexible, it allows for the combination of the parts of a catalog of different quality into a single minimally biased set of recurrence parameters.On leave from the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-973 Warsaw, Pasteura 3, Poland     

Preliminary report on Lower Jurassic radiolaria of Gondwana origin from the Kawhia coast, New Zealand

Abstract Well-preserved radiolarians from the Newcastle Group in southwest Kawhia, New Zealand, constitute the first record of Lower Jurassic radiolarians from in situ deposits in high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere on the margin of Gondwana. The radiolarians were extracted from carbonate nodules from five horizons in the Rewarewa Formation and the lower part of the Arawhero Formation, in the Murihiku Terrane. The radiolarian-bearing sequence, which lies within the upper part of the type section of the local Aratauran Stage, is roughly datable as Hettangian-Sinemurian from rare ammonite occurrences. The radiolarian assemblages consist, on average, of 80–90% spumellarians and 10–20% nassellarians. Spumellarians include species of the following genera: Archaeotriastrum, Crucella, Emiluvia (?) Homeoparo-riaella, Orbictilifomaa, Pantanellium, Paronaella (?), Pseudocrucella, PseIIdoheliodiscus, Spon-gostaurus and Spongotrochus. Nassellarians are composed of species of Ragotum, Bipedis, Droltus, Jams (?) Perispyridium (?) Raoultius, Riedelius, Saitoum and Thetis. From data of Lower Jurassic radiolarian faunas of Europe, North America and Japan, the New Zealand fauna shows stronger affinity with those of the European Tethys such as Turkey (e.g. De Wever 1982) and the Northern Alps (Kozur & Mostler 1990) than with faunas from other areas of the circum-Pacific. This connection between the European Tethyan and New Zealand faunas is not well explained by presently accepted continental reconstructions (Smith et al. 1994) for the Early Jurassic.     

Variations in the upper mantle structure as derived fromP n andS n waves

Summary Observed travel-times ofP _n andS _n waves are used to determine the ratio ofP _n toS _n velocities, Poisson's ratio and the ratio of incompressibility to shear modulus for Europe, Japan, North America and Scandinavia. The analysis of the data reveals that theP _n toS _n velocity ratio decreases when theP _n velocity increases for Scandinavia and North America, while the velocity ratio increases when theP _n velocity increases for Europe and Japan.     

Anomalously high b-values in the South Flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii: evidence for the distribution of magma below Kilauea's East rift zone

The pattern of b-value of the frequency–magnitude relation, or mean magnitude, varies little in the Kaoiki-Hilea area of Hawaii, and the b-values are normal, with b=0.8 in the top 10 km and somewhat lower values below that depth. We interpret the Kaoiki-Hilea area as relatively stable, normal Hawaiian crust. In contrast, the b-values beneath Kilauea's South Flank are anomalously high (b=1.3–1.7) at depths between 4 and 8 km, with the highest values near the East Rift zone, but extending 5–8 km away from the rift. Also, the anomalously high b-values vary along strike, parallel to the rift zone. The highest b-values are observed near Hiiaka and Pauahi craters at the bend in the rift, the next highest are near Makaopuhi and also near Puu Kaliu. The mildest anomalies occur adjacent to the central section of the rift. The locations of the three major and two minor b-value anomalies correspond to places where shallow magma reservoirs have been proposed based on analyses of seismicity, geodetic data and differentiated lava chemistry. The existence of the magma reservoirs is also supported by magnetic anomalies, which may be areas of dike concentration, and self-potential anomalies, which are areas of thermal upwelling above a hot source. The simplest explanation of these anomalously high b-values is that they are due to the presence of active magma bodies beneath the East Rift zone at depths down to 8 km. In other volcanoes, anomalously high b-values correlate with volumes adjacent to active magma chambers. This supports a model of a magma body beneath the East Rift zone, which may widen and thin along strike, and which may reach 8 km depth and extend from Kilauea's summit to a distance of at least 40 km down rift. The anomalously high b-values at the center of the South Flank, several kilometers away from the rift, may be explained by unusually high pore pressure throughout the South Flank, or by anomalously strong heterogeneity due to extensive cracking, or by both phenomena. The major b-value anomalies are located SSE of their parent reservoirs, in the direction of motion of the flank, suggesting that magma reservoirs leave an imprint in the mobile flank. We hypothesize that the extensive cracking may have been acquired when the anomalous parts of the South Flank, now several kilometers distant from the rift zone, were generated at the rift zone near persistent reservoirs. Since their generation, these volumes may have moved seaward, away from the rift, but earthquakes occurring in them still use the preexisting complex crack distribution. Along the decollement plane at 10 km depth, the b-values are exceptionally low (b=0.5), suggesting faulting in a more homogeneous medium.     

Seismicity and stress field in Okinawa Trough and Ryukyu regions

（黄培华）（苏维加）（陈金波）ＳｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙａｎｄｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄｉｎＯｋｉｎａｗａＴｒｏｕｇｈａｎｄＲｙｕｋｙｕｒｅｇｉｏｎｓ￥Ｐｅｉ－ＨｕａＨＵＡＮＧ；Ｗｅｉ－ｊｉａＳＵａｎｄＪｉｎ－ＢｏＣＨＥＮ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＥａｒｔｈａ...     

The experimental research on b value of AE for the rock specimens with pre-existing crack or notch under uniaxial compression

A lot of researches onb value have been made in seismology. Since the 1960’s Mogi, Scholz and others have studied AE of rock specimens in laboratory and discovered that it is related to natural earthquakes. All former researchers used integral specimens to studyb value in the laboratory. However a major earthquake is usually related to a existing seismic-fault in that area. For this reason, a series of fracture experiments with rock and glass specimens having pre-existing crack or notch is performed in order to examine the effect of preexisting crack tob value. The experimental results show that theb value begins to decrease as soon as the initiation of the crack and finally drop to a very low value when the specimen breaks unstably. Based on these, a brief discussion on the possible mechanism ofb value change for natural earthquakes is given. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,9, 393–400, 1987. Projects sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Physical background on estimating b value

The G-R relation lgN=a-bM (1954) is an empirical formula used widely in the seismicity research. But the linearity of b curves has great difference in different time and space domains. An interested question in this paper is that in how large a space-time-strength domain the b value has certain physical connotation. This study told us that we can get optimal statistical results of b value in those space-time domains which can develop correspondent strong shocks with magnitude interval (M _s≥8.5, 8.0≤M _s<8.5, 7.0≤M _s<8.0). Thus, the possible seismogenic areas in which strong shocks with different magnitude intervals develop can be inferred in different regions of the mainland of China. Finally, some new problems are proposed, such as the delimitation of seismic province, the seismicity parameter determination in seismic hazard analysis and in earthquake predictions by using b value. Contribution No. 96A-0074, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.     

Scaling relations for seismic events induced by mining

The values of seismic moment andS-wave corner frequency from 1575 seismic events induced in South African, Canadian, Polish, and German underground mines were collected to study their scaling relations. The values ofP-wave corner frequency from 649 events were also available. Seismic moments of these events range from 5*10³ to 2*10¹⁵ N·m (moment magnitude is from –3.6 to 4.1), theS-wave corner frequency ranges from 0.7 to 4438 Hz, and theP-wave corner frequency is between 5 and 4010 Hz. The slope of a regression line between the logarithm ofS- andP-wave corner frequencies is equal to one, and the corner frequencies ofP waves are higher than those ofS waves on the average by about 25 percent. In studies of large and moderate earthquakes it has been found that stress drop is approximately independent of the seismic moment, which means that seismic moment is inversely proportional to the third power of corner frequency. Such a behavior was confirmed for most of the data considered here. A breakdown in the similarity betwen large and small events seems to occur for the events with moment magnitude below –2.5. The average values of seismic moment referred to the same range of corner frequency, however, are vastly different in various mining areas.     

国际大震轻灾类地震区域划分研究

统计了1900年以来全球约2200次6．0级以上地震,将数据分为ABC3类,并给出了大震轻灾类地震的定义。对大震轻灾类地震进行提取,结合全球地震带的分布情况,划分国际大震轻灾类地震分布区域,给出国际大震轻灾类地震分布图。该图将全球划分为7个大震轻灾区域,初步分析,这些区域主要位于欧亚地震带最西段、印尼苏门答腊及附近海域和印尼班达海附近,环太平洋地震带的西南段、北段和南美秘鲁智利一带。     

Changes in the early part of the seismic coda due to localized scatterers: The estimation ofQ in a stope environment

A single scattering model was used to analyse the temporary changes in the mean density of scattered waves in a discrete random medium. The model of the mean energy density, originally proposed bySato (1977) for spherical radiation and isotropic scattering, has been modified and applied to a medium in which the scatterers are confined to a specified volume. The time variation of the early part of the mean energy density function for the different source durations was investigated. The dominant effect on the theoretical mean energy density is caused by the specified volume containing scatterers. The duration of the source pulse influences the early part of the coda fort/t ₀<1.2, wheret is the lapse time measured from the source origin time, andt ₀is arrival time of the body wave.The analysis of the coda signal of micro-events occurring immediately in front of the face enables us to estimate the size of the fracture zone induced by the stope. The model of the mean energy density of coda for a medium containing scatterers close to the seismic source was used to analyse a large number of events recorded close to an advancing mine face in a deep level gold mine in South Africa. The coda decay rate has two trends: the first, with a steep decay of coda, is produced by a larger deviation of rock parameters and/or larger size of the scatterers; the second trend, which decays more slowly, has the corresponding mean-free path ranging from 20 m to 200 m. The analysis indicates that the rock mass about 15–20 m from the stope contains a large proportion of fractured and blocked rock, which is the source of scattering. The scattering of theS-wave was much stronger and more stable, with the mean-free path varying from 11 m to 45 m. This is due to the shorter wavelength of theS wave in comparison with theP wave. The quality factor for theP coda wave varies from 30 to 100 in the fracture zone of stope and outside this zone it has a value of 300. The quality factor of theS wave varies from 20 to 78 in the equivalent volume. For rock surrounding the stope the ratioQ _sp ^–1 /Q _ss ^–1 varied from 0.31 to 0.69. This suggests that the radii of scatterers are smaller than 3.5 m.     

A fracture-mechanical cellular automaton model of seismicity

We present a cellular automaton model which simulates the process of seismogenesis using rules for evolution which are derived from the field of fracture mechanics, and include an interplay of positive and negative feedbacks. We describe the implementation of this model, and its analysis, in a massively parallel environment using the Connection Machine. Starting from a lattice with a fractal distribution of fracture toughnesses, theb value evolves in a way which closely mimics both the evolutions ofb value observed in the laboratory and derived from earthquake catalogues, reaching a broad and irregular maximum in the period preceding a major event, and declining rapidly during catastrophic failure. We conclude that the processes modelled are a reasonable representation of those occurring in Nature, and that the cellular automaton paradigm is a valuable way of simulating these processes on a large scale in an economical manner.