海岸地区致灾台风暴潮的长期分布模式

考虑台风导致的高水位和海浪波高对风暴潮灾害的贡献,对1949年以来影响青岛地区的台风暴潮进行了抽样统计.基于二维的泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布模式,对海岸地区的致灾风暴潮进行了长期的随机分析.与传统的警戒水位法不同,新模式能够反映多种环境荷载的综合作用,推算了青岛地区的特大台风暴潮灾害的重现期.计算结果显示,二维复合分布模式适合于描述台风暴潮过程中极值水位与相应波高的联合概率,所得结论对青岛地区的防潮减灾规划和工程建设具有指导意义.     

Risk assessment on storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

The coastal area of Guangdong Province is one of the most developed regions in China. It is also often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of the few regions in China which are seriously threatened by storm surges. Based on the data of storm surges in the study area in the past 30 years, the return periods of 18 tide stations for storm surge are calculated separately. Using the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS, combined with the topography data of the study area, the submerged scope for storm surge in the coastal area of Guangdong Province is determined, and the hazard assessment is carried out. According to the view of systematic point, this article quotes the result of vulnerability assessment which was done by the author in the previous research. Based on the hazard evaluation and vulnerability evaluation, risk assessment of storm surges in the study region is done, and the risk zoning map is drawn. According to the assessment, Zhuhai, Panyu and Taishan are classified as the highest risk to storm surges in Guangdong Province; Yangdong, Yangjiang and Haifeng are in higher risk to storm surges; Dongguan, Jiangmen, Baoan and Huidong are in middle risk to storm surges; Zhongshan, Enping, Shanwei, Huiyang, Longgang and Shenzhen are in lower risk of storm surges; Guangzhou, Shunde and Kaiping are in the lowest risk to storm surges. This study builds a complete process for risk assessment of storm surges. It reveals the risk of storm surges in the coastal cities, and it would guide the land use of coastal cities in the future and provide scientific advices to the government for the prevention and mitigation of storm surge disaster. It has important theoretical and practical significance.     

A quantitative expression for the magnitude and intensity of disaster of storm surges

We here discuss the concept of the magnitude and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge and propose a method of calculation based on the principle of the wind scale and the earthquake magnitude. The magnitude of a storm surge is the quantitative index that describes the scale of the storm surge, and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge is the quantitative index that describes the losses caused by the storm surge.     

风暴潮贝壳堤的沉积特征及发育模式

南海北部长湾贝壳堤是一典型的风暴潮成因贝壳堤。该贝壳堤的横向、纵向露头和钻孔所显示的地层结构、层理特征、粒度特征、14C测年、物质组成、贝屑种属生境及当地风暴增水高度和地壳升降幅度表明：（1）贝壳堤由风暴沉积组成,是风暴潮增水期间海岸沉积物堆积的结果,由于堆积在平均高潮面之上,增水退却后不受正常天气下波浪的影响得以保存;（2）理想剖面由下而上分4个部分：1）潮滩堆积;2）激浪带堆积;3）增水面下波浪堆积;4）增水面上波浪爬高堆积。各个部分具有不同的沉积特征,分别代表贝壳堤向上增长的各个阶段的沉积环境和风暴作用方式;（3）风暴潮贝壳堤与非风暴潮贝壳堤不仅在发育过程,而且在沉积结构、粒度特征、贝屑种属、堆积部位、堆积高度及环境意义等方面都有所不同。     

Numerical simulation and prediction of storm surges and water levels in Shanghai harbour and its vicinity

A water level model incorporating the nonlinear interactions between tides and storm surges for numerical simulation and prediction use is developed in this paper. Using a conventional two-dimensional nonlinear storm surge model and tide model and associated semi-momentum finite-difference scheme, both the storm surges caused by the tropical cyclones hitting Shanghai and the tides in related regions during the period 1949–1990, are numerically simulated. In simulating storm surges, 16 tropical cyclones with different kinds of tracks are chosen. Meanwhile, to simulate tides, the governing equations for tides, along with 63 prescribed tidal constituents at open sea boundaries are numerically computed. Sixteen associated cases of total water-level simulations comprising joint effects linking surges and tides and one case of real-time prediction have been carried out in 1990 on the basis of computed surges and tides. The total water levels thus obtained in this way give better results than those obtained by the traditional method, i.e. without taking into account, in the model, nonlinear coupling between storm surges and tides.Comparison of the predictions of storm surges and the total water level with the hindcast ones in 1990 showed that a relatively larger error of prediction mainly results from the incorrect forecasting of tropical cyclones but not from the prediction method itself.     

A numerical study of storm surges caused by cold-air outbreaks in the Bohai Sea

Storm surges in the Bohai Sea are not only associated with tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones, but also cold-air outbreaks. Cold-air outbreaks attack China from four major tracks, with each track having its own prevailing wind over the Bohai Sea. As the pressure field of cold-air outbreaks can be converted into the surface wind, storm surges can be investigated by the pressure field of cold-air outbreaks entirely. This paper took the different major tracks, pressure field, and high wind period into consideration and constructed 20 scenarios to describe the actual situation of cold-air outbreaks. Based on the results modeled by FVCOM, the influence of various cold-air outbreaks on the maximum surge in the Bohai Sea and the probability of the surge elevation at three typical tide gauges were investigated. Finally, a powerful decision-making tool to estimate storm surges induced by cold-air outbreaks was provided.     

A review of cyclone track shifts over the Great Lakes of North America: implications for storm surges

Natural Hazards - Cyclone tracks over the Great Lakes of North America shift, both East–West as well as North–South. The reasons for the shifts are various small-scale as well as...     

Deposition of nanoparticles on school eyeglasses in urban and rural areas:A methodology for a more real assessment of the possible impacts

Because incomplete confirmation is available concerning the influential role of atmosphere contamination on conjunctivitis,myopia,asthma,and allergic rhinitis in Brazil,the focus of the present work is to explore the possible relations among atmosphere contamination and eye problems.Rather that a case study on eye diseases,by way of questionnaires supplemented by the investigation of nanoparticles(NPs)on eyeglasses,the study examines the mechanisms in which NPs and ultra-fine particles are deposited on the glasses of children up to 10 years of age in urban and rural area.The important connection between atmosphere contaminants and individual protection equipment justifies improving indoor school properties in order could protect children’s eyes,particularly in high-pollution/high-particulate areas.     

江苏中部沿海潮滩对台风暴潮的响应

通过近年来对江苏沿海有影响的台风暴潮作用前后的滩面高程观测,结合台风浪资料分析,探究了江苏中部沿海潮滩对风暴潮的响应过程。结果显示:潮滩剖面在风暴潮期间呈现"低滩侵蚀、沿岸输运、高滩稳定",明显区别于沙质海岸在台风浪作用下"高滩侵蚀、离岸输运、低滩淤积"的演变特征。应用Delft3D平面二维水沙动力数学模型,模拟了正常天气和台风浪情况下的滩面演变,从动力学角度解释了潮滩间不同区域演变特征差异的原因,论证了台风浪对地貌演变的短历时"插曲式"作用,阐明了涨潮优势流是风暴侵蚀后泥沙沿岸向输运的主控因子。     

复合土拱新技术及其在城市地下工程中的应用

城市地下空间的开发正起到愈来愈重要的作用,并逐渐形成了一种空间、地面和地下三维一体化的城市新型建筑体系。在这种体系中,地下和地面建筑之间的地基处理是一个十分棘手的问题。结合工程实例,介绍一种复合土拱新技术能够有效地处理这类问题,该技术在今后城建领域中有一定推广价值。     

矿物包体分类问题及其意义（一种新的包体分类方案）

一、概述包体是矿物形成过程中被捕获的成矿介质,被称为成矿流体的样品。它是矿物最重要的标型特征之一。可作为译解成矿作用,特别是内生成矿作用的密码。因此,包体是一种最好的材料,可用于测定矿物、矿床或其他地质体形成过程中的物理地球化学作用的温度、压力、介质成分及性质等。用这些参数,可以有助于解决有关矿床成因、找矿标志、成矿规律及指     

重磁异常的小波模极大值分解及其在北衙矿区中的应用

位场数据异常存在的线性特征往往对应着地下断裂构造、不同岩性地质体的边界接触带或者其他具有一定密度或磁性差异的构造特征。对这些线性特征进行增强、提取并进行半定量地解释是重磁资料处理的主要内容。然而,位场数据中若混入噪声干扰,再利用总水平导数、总水平梯度倾斜角等方法进行高次求导运算会把噪声放大,导致提取的线性构造位置发生偏离甚至出现错误。为了获取较为准确的线性构造及边界位置,选取对噪声干扰不敏感的小波模极大值方法,将该方法用于模型试验和实际矿区数据处理中,都能较好地定位出异常体模型边界和矿体的投影边界,表明小波模极大值是一种有效的重磁异常线性特征增强与提取方法。     

A different intensity recording for reducing the uncertainty in its assessment: An application to the completeness analysis of earthquake catalogues

The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the consequences of the ordinal and qualitative nature of seismic intensity regarding its recording. The classical way of recording by an integer value implies that on many occasions it can be difficult to associate only one intensity degree to an event. Therefore, we propose to record the intensity in a new way so that the expert is no longer restricted to indicating only one value, but can express his belief that the considered event belongs to any one of the intensity classes in the scale. Following this approach, as an example, we study the completeness of the Sannio-Matese catalogue and show how the degree of completeness changes according to the degree of uncertainty in intensity assessment.     

A new landslide-induced tsunami simulation model and its application to the 1792 Unzen-Mayuyama landslide-and-tsunami disaster

By combining landslide dynamics research and tsunami research, we present an integrated series of numerical models quantitatively simulating the complete evolution of a landslide-induced tsunami. The integrated model simulating the landslide initiation and motion uses measured landslide dynamic parameters from a high-stress undrained dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus. It provides the numerical data of a landslide mass entering and moving under water to the tsunami simulation model as the trigger of tsunami. The series of landslide and tsunami simulation models were applied to the 1792 Unzen-Mayuyama megaslide and the ensuing tsunami disaster, which is the largest landslide disaster, the largest volcanic disaster, and the largest landslide-induced tsunami disaster to have occurred in Japan. Both the 1792 megaslide and the tsunami portions of the disaster are well documented, making this an excellent test of the reliability and precision of the new simulation model. The simulated tsunami heights at the coasts well match the historical tsunami heights recorded by “Tsunami-Dome-Ishi” (a stone showing the tsunami reaching point) and memorial stone pillars.     

频谱差异烃类检测新方法在东胜气田的应用

查明含烃区与不含烃区的频谱差异是利用频谱属性开展地震烃类检测工作的重要前提。为了直观地确定出含烃区与不含烃区的频谱差异,提出基于频谱差异的烃类检测方法,结合实际油气试采数据和研究需要,将已知井分为含烃井与不含烃井,通过比较分类对象射孔段的瞬时振幅谱(点谱)来找出含烃相关的频谱差异,并利用多种频谱属性交会的方式得到地震含烃区。本文通过目的层盒1段下伏煤层有无的正演模型确定了最大波谷振幅属性为预测储层信息的有利属性,但更深入分析认为频谱差异属性比常规的最大波谷属性更能表征含烃与不含烃的差异。通过设置属性门槛值的方式来量化含烃区与不含烃区在频谱属性上的差异,并将10 Hz单频振幅、25 Hz积分振幅、低频衰减梯度、高频衰减梯度等4种含烃门槛值内的频谱属性进行交会,继而确定出潜在的含烃区,通过水平井验证检测结果,表明该方法具有一定的有效性。     

一种新内梅罗指数法的修正方法及应用

针对内梅罗指数法的Fi值在各级水质指标临界值附近突变、计算得出F值与地下水质量分级标准不匹配和Fmax对F值影响过大的问题,提出一种新的修正方法。该方法在不改变Fi期望值的前提下使Fi连续,并适当增加了对F值的影响。将该方法应用于研究区地下水综合评价,结果表明,修正后F值更加连续、均匀,并平衡了和Fmax对F值的影响,使得修正后的F值能够更加客观地反映地下水质量状况。