A prefetching technique for prediction of porous media flows

In many applications in flows through porous media, one needs to determine the properties of subsurface to detect, monitor, or predict the actions of natural or induced forces. Here, we focus on two important subsurface properties: rock permeability and porosity. A Bayesian approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is well suited for reconstructing the spatial distribution of permeability and porosity, and quantifying associated uncertainty in these properties. A crucial step in this approach is the computation of a likelihood function, which involves solving a possibly nonlinear system of partial differential equations. The computation time for the likelihood function limits the number of MCMC iterations that can be performed in a practical period of time. This affects the consistency of the posterior distribution of permeability and porosity obtained by MCMC exploration. To speed-up the posterior exploration, we can use a prefetching technique, which relies on the fact that multiple likelihoods of possible states into the future in an MCMC chain can be computed ahead of time. In this paper, we show that the prefetching technique implemented on multiple processors can make the Bayesian approach computationally tractable for subsurface characterization and prediction of porous media flows.     

Attenuation of electrons flux penetrating through the lower ionosphere

The angular variation of elastic and inelastic scattering cross-sections has been calculated and used to study the energy deposition by precipitating electrons with the help of Monte Carlo Method. Monoenergetic, power law electron spectrum with isotropic and monodinational incidence starting at an altitude of 300 km have been used to obtain the angular and energy distributions at certain height intervals. In these calculations constant magnetic field has been used.     

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability–high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.     

突发性水污染事件溯源方法

为快速准确地求解突发性水污染溯源问题,在微分进化与蒙特卡罗基础上提出了一种新的溯源方法。该方法将溯源问题视为贝叶斯估计问题,推导出污染源强度、位置和排放时刻等未知参数的后验概率密度函数;结合微分进化和蒙特卡罗模拟方法对后验概率分布进行采样,进而估计出这些未知参数,确定污染源项。通过算例与贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗方法进行对比,结果表明:该方法可使迭代次数有效缩减3/4,污染源强度、位置和排放时刻的平均相对误差分别减少1.23%、2.23%和4.15%,均值误差分别降低0.39%、0.83%和1.49%,其稳定性和可靠性明显高于贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗方法,能较好地识别突发性水污染源,为解决突发水污染事件中的追踪溯源难点问题提供了新的思路和方法。     

Bayesian Reservoir History Matching Considering Model and Parameter Uncertainties

This paper presents a consistent Bayesian solution for data integration and history matching for oil reservoirs while accounting for both model and parameter uncertainties. The developed method uses Gaussian Process Regression to build a permeability map conforming to collected data at well bores. Following that, an augmented Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler is used to condition the permeability map to dynamic production data. The selected proposal distribution for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo conforms to the Gaussian process regression output. The augmented Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler allows transition steps between different models of the covariance function, and hence both the parameter and model space are effectively explored. In contrast to single model Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers, the proposed augmented Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler eliminates the selection bias of certain covariance structures of the inferred permeability field. The proposed algorithm can be used to account for general model and parameter uncertainties.     

三山岛海上金矿勘查工程ZK3410孔坍塌原因与处理

钻探施工中出现的孔内事故,绝大多数与人的主观因素有关,纯自然事故比较少见。针对三山岛海上金矿勘查工程ZK3410钻孔发生的一起严重孔壁坍塌事故,对其事故原因进行了详细的分析,并采取了一系列的处理措施,增大冲洗液浓度,增强护壁效果;扫孔和清除孔内坍塌物,采用特殊钻具捞取沉淀物,直至孔壁稳定,孔底清洁,钻进正常。实践证明,操作人员的主观意识对预防孔内事故的发生是至关重要的。     

Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales,Australia

The currently adopted rainfall-based design flood estimation method in Australia, known as design event approach (DEA), has a flaw that is widely criticized by the hydrologists. The DEA is based on the assumption that a rainfall depth of a certain frequency can be transformed to a flood peak of the same frequency by adopting the ‘representative values’ of other model input variables, such as temporal patterns and losses. To overcome the limitation associated with the DEA, this paper develops stochastic model inputs to apply Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) for design flood estimation. This uses data from 86 pluviograph stations and six catchments from eastern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to regionalize the distributions of various input variables (e.g., rainfall duration, inter-event duration, intensity and temporal patterns and loss and routing characteristics) to simulate thousands of flood hydrographs using a nonlinear runoff routing model. The regionalized stochastic inputs are then applied with the MCST to two catchments in eastern NSW. The results indicate that the developed MCST provide more accurate flood quantile estimates than the DEA for the two test catchments. The particular advantage of the new MCST and stochastic design input variables is that it reduces the subjectivity in the selection of model input values in flood modeling. The developed MCST can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries.     

Geospatial analysis between the environment and past incidences of West Nile virus in bird specimens in Ontario,Canada

Over recent years, the prevalence of the West Nile virus (WNV) in Canada has greatly increased due to various factors including changes in feeding behavior among WNV vectors. To understand whether changes in climate are a significant factor, the association between the environment and cases of WNV-infected bird specimens from 2009 to 2012 in Ontario, Canada, was examined using SAS and Quantum Geographic Information Systems (QGIS). Through a generalized linear mixed analysis, monthly totals of cooling degree days (CDD) and a two-way interaction between maximum temperature (Tmax) and precipitation were significantly positively associated to past incidences of WNV; while Tmax, precipitation, and a two-way interaction between CDD and precipitation were significantly negatively associated to past incidences of WNV. With the effects of increased warming, locations at higher latitudes in Canada may soon be at risk to WNV, as a positive case of WNV in a bird specimen was found close to the near north of Ontario in 2012.     

Exploration geochemistry—Distribution of elements and recognition of anomalies

The exploration geochemist faces a serious problem in reconciling theoretical statistics with the empirical distribution of elements in materials in the earth's crust. The results of computer-simulation experiments being conducted by the Exploration Geochemistry Group at the University of New Brunswick illustrate some of the problems of the relation between frequency distributions and spatial distributions of elements and raise some interesting questions about sampling patterns and physical size of samples. Most importantly, the simulation experiments and empirical examples support the contention that attempts to make an assumption of normality more efficient by performing log transformations on positively skewed data may defeat the purpose of statistical analysis for exploration work. New developments in computer-data presentation and interpretation, including population sorting and classification, illustrate the increasing use of the computer in exploration geochemistry.     

Mapping joint hurricane wind and surge hazards for Charleston,South Carolina

Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge.     

A microseismic experiment in Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates: implications for carbonate reservoir monitoring

A microseismic experiment utilizing a single downhole array of eight 3-component receivers was conducted in an offshore oilfield in the emirate of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. The Lower Cretaceous Thamama Group is the major carbonate reservoir in the field producing from six zones. Microseismic data was acquired in conjunction with gas injections that took place in the Thamama IV A and IV B reservoirs during 9 days of acquisition. The aim of the experiment was to monitor the microseismic activity arising in the carbonate reservoirs as a result of gas injection. A total of 103 microseismic events were detected from two of the receivers. For the majority of these events, there were no well-defined P wave arrivals, probably due to the presence of strong background noise and the very weak microseismic signals. The results from this experiment indicate that the detected events are probably related to the microseismic activities caused by the gas injection within the Thamama IV B reservoir. Therefore, downhole microseismic monitoring methods can potentially provide valuable information about the fracture systems within the carbonate reservoirs of Abu Dhabi's oilfields.     

Bayesian Modelling of Spatial Data Using Markov Random Fields, With Application to Elemental Composition of Forest Soil

Spatial datasets are common in the environmental sciences. In this study we suggest a hierarchical model for a spatial stochastic field. The main focus of this article is to approximate a stochastic field with a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) to exploit computational advantages of the Markov field, concerning predictions, etc. The variation of the stochastic field is modelled as a linear trend plus microvariation in the form of a GMRF defined on a lattice. To estimate model parameters we adopt a Bayesian perspective, and use Monte Carlo integration with samples from Markov Chain simulations. Our methods does not demand lattice, or near-lattice data, but are developed for a general spatial data-set, leaving the lattice to be specified by the modeller. The model selection problem that comes with the artificial grid is in this article addressed with cross-validation, but we also suggest other alternatives. From the application of the methods to a data set of elemental composition of forest soil, we obtained predictive distributions at arbitrary locations as well as estimates of model parameters.     

Perceptions of environmental change in Moorea,French Polynesia: the importance of temporal,spatial, and scalar contexts

Pacific Islands are considered among the most vulnerable geographies and societies to the effects of climate change and variability (CCV). This study addresses the mismatch between global climate change narratives and local perceptions of environmental change in Moorea, French Polynesia. This study builds on CCV risk perception and adaptation research by analyzing how temporal and historical socio-economic, cultural, political, and ecological contexts shape local perceptions of environmental change among a sample of environmental stakeholders in Moorea. The data were collected prior to the widespread global narrative and social amplification of climate change risk and its particular impact on islands. As such, they offer an important portrait of environmental perceptions in French Polynesia prior to the influence of a circumscribed climate change narrative, which has since come to shape government and NGO responses to environmental change in the Pacific Island Countries and Territories. The data presented in this paper illustrate that perceptions of drivers and effects of environmental change and risk in Moorea are embedded in larger social processes of political economy and ecology, particularly related to contemporary environmental politics, contextualized within the histories of colonialism and tourism-led economic development. Integrating the complexity of local environmental risk perceptions into CCV policy will help to avoid maladaptation, social movements against CCV planning, and may help maximize government and donor investments.     

Metal contamination of surface sediments of the Sfax–Chebba coastal line,Tunisia

Concentrations of several heavy metals (Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu, Zn and Fe) in surface sediment were determined to investigate the distributions and the metallic pollution status in Sfax–Chebba coastal area (southeast of Tunisia). Sediment samples were collected from 20 locations, representing three different site groups (i.e., site I: urban zone, site II: pre-urban zone and site III: rural zone). Heavy metal contents were analyzed by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry. The obtained results showed that generally, heavy metal concentrations in the coastal sediments near Sfax city (urban zone) were higher than those at other stations because of the anthropogenic activities. These concentrations exceeded the threshold effect levels. This was confirmed by the chemometric approaches (enrichment factors, geoaccumulation index and principal component analysis) which showed a significant impact of multiple anthropogenic sources. Moderate to extremely severe enrichment of sediments in terms of Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu and Zn were shown to exist in site I. Severe enrichment by Cd was also observed in other sites. Based on the geoaccumulation index, Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu and Zn can be considered as unpollutants to extreme pollutants.     

Mica-feldspar equilibria in supercritical alkali chloride solutions

The equilibrium position of the reaction $$\begin{gathered} 1.5 KAlSi_3 O_8 + HCl = 0.5 KAl_3 Si_3 O_{10} (OH)_2 \hfill \\ + 3SiO_2 + KCl \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ has been located at 1 and 2 kb pressure and temperatures between 600° and 670° C using the Ag-AgCl buffer. These data can be combined with information on the dissociation of KC1, HC1 and H₂O to determine species abundances in supercritical aqueous fluids in equilibrium with muscovite — K-feldspar — quartz assemblages. Chloride species become increasingly associated with increasingT, increasing total molality, (m _tot or \(m_{Cl_{tot} } \) ), and decreasing \(P_{H_2 O} \) . Master variable diagrams indicate that the pH of the solutions may vary from near neutral to quite acid. Published data on the paragonite-albite-quartz reaction and exchange reactions involving feldspars and micas were included to calculate speciation in mica-feldspar-NaCl-KCl-HCl-H₂O fluids at 2kb pressure and temperatures between 300° and 600° C. The data are not accurate enough to distinguish different feldspar structural states. Concentration gradients were calculated for individual species between K-feldspar+quartz, muscovite+quartz and andalusite+quartz assemblages at 500° C, 2 kb. Assuming that the proton diffuses most rapidly and that there are no [H⁺] gradients, the molality of the solution must vary 30-fold, with feldspar+quartz at the more concentrated side. The data on mica-feldspar-chloride equilibria are used to interpret the spacial distribution of micas, feldspar and quartz in microfolds. This distribution can be accounted for by pressure solution, due to the fact that non-hydrostatic pressure affects congruently dissolving minerals, auch as quartz, differently from minerals which dissolve incongruently, such as micas and feldspars. We postulate, that during folding at constant \(P_{H_2 O} \) ,T and \(m_{Cl - } \) , gradients in KC1 and SiO₂ are created by stress differences between hinge and limb of a microfold, such that both migrate to the hinge area where quartz precipitates and muscovite is converted to K-felspar, thus accounting for the observed mineral distribution.     

Creating an advanced backpropagation neural network toolbox within GIS software

An artificial neural network (ANN) toolbox is created within GIS software for spatial interpolation, which will help GIS users to train and test ANNs, perform spatial analysis, and display results as a single process. The performance is compared to that of the open source Fast Artificial Neural Network library and conventional interpolation methods by creating digital elevation models (DEMs) given that nearly exact solutions exist. Simulation results show that the advanced backpropagations such as iRprop speed up the learning, while they can get stuck in a local minimum depending on initial weight sets. Besides, the division of input–output examples into training and test data affects the accuracy, particularly when the distribution of the examples is skewed and peaked, and the number of data is small. ANNs, however, show the similar performance to inversed distance weighted or kriging and outperform polynomial interpolations as a global interpolation method in high-dimensional data. In addition, the neural network residual kriging (NNRK) model, which combines the ANN toolbox and kriging within GIS software, is performed. The NNRK outperforms conventional methods and well captures global trends and local variations. A key outcome of this work is that the ANN toolbox created within the de facto standard GIS software is applicable to various spatial analysis including hazard risk assessment over a large area, in particular when there are multiple potential causes, the relationship between risk factors and hazard events is not clear, and the number of available data is small given its performance for DEM generation.     

层状盐岩中储备库油气渗漏风险的故障树分析

油气渗漏是盐岩地下储备库事故的重要类型之一,具有突发性强、损失难以估计的特点。针对国内层状盐岩中储备库运营过程中的油气渗漏风险进行分析,揭示了油气渗漏事故的发生机制并建立了相应的故障树模型。通过对该模型的分析,找出了事故发生的各基本致因事件和故障模式,并得出适用于典型层状盐岩储备库油气渗漏事故的发生概率公式。分析结果表明,国内层状盐岩中储备库发生油气渗漏事故的可能故障模式有28种,且发生条件易于满足而难于防范,因此事故发生的可能性较大;按照各基本事件结构重要度的计算结果,盐岩强度低、盐岩蠕变过量、附近有断层、地震、造腔参数控制不当、非均匀地应力、人为操作失误等是层状盐岩中储备库油气渗漏事故的主要致因事件,并据此提出有效措施防止事故发生;通过专家调查法和故障树法的综合分析得出,金坛盐矿5口老腔储库在近10年的运营期内发生油气渗漏事故的概率为0.703%,属于偶发性事故。     

Spectral distribution of the polarized radiation from standard accretion disks in Active Galactic Nuclei: Observational analysis

Spectropolarimetric observations of a number of Active Galactic Nuclei obtained using the SCORPIO-2 aperture focal reducer installed on the 6-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences are used to estimate physical parameters of these objects. The measured polarization and its wavelength dependence are consistent with the expectations of a standard accretion-disk model taking into account the effect of Faraday depolarization over the mean free path of the emitted photons. Estimates of the magnetic field in the accretion disk near the innermost stable orbit and the spin of the accreting central black hole are obtained. It is concluded that supermassive black holes with standard accretion disks and equal magnetic and radiative pressures are primarily Kerr black holes.     

深孔小口径金刚石钻进严重烧钻事故的预防与处理

深孔小口径金刚石钻进施工中,由于所配置的钻机钻进能力强,在深孔的中深及以浅孔段钻进时转速高、钻效高,常因钻头工作环境或某一钻进参数的改变,而发生金刚石钻头（岩心管）与岩石烧结为一体的严重烧钻事故。通过严重烧钻事故案例,分析出中深孔段金刚石钻进易发生严重烧钻事故的几种工作状况,并对预防严重烧钻事故及处理严重烧钻事故的关键问题进行探讨。