Applicability of different ground-motion prediction models for northern Iran

A total of 163 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at epicentral distances of up to 200 km from 32 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from M _w 4.9 to 7.4 have been used to investigate the predictive capabilities of the local, regional, and next generation attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations and determine their applicability for northern Iran. Two different statistical approaches, namely the likelihood method (LH) of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:341–348, 2004) and the average log-likelihood method (LLH) of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234–3247, 2009), have been applied for evaluation of these models. The best-fitting models (considering both the LH and LLH results) over the entire frequency range of interest are those of Ghasemi et al. (Seismol 13:499–515, 2009a) and Soghrat et al. (Geophys J Int 188:645–679, 2012) among the local models, Abrahamson and Silva (Earthq Spectra 24:67–97, 2008) and Chiou and Youngs (Earthq Spectra 24:173–215, 2008) among the NGA models, and finally Akkar and Bommer (Seism Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010) among the regional models.     

Assessment of Liquefaction Potential of Guwahati City: A Case Study

The liquefaction potential of saturated cohesionless deposits in Guwahati city, Assam, was evaluated. The critical cyclic stress ratio required to cause liquefaction and the cyclic stress ratio induced by an earthquake were obtained using the simplified empirical method developed by Seed and Idriss (J soil Mech Found Eng ASCE 97(SM9):1249–1273, 1971, Ground motions and soil liquefaction during earthquakes. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, CA, 1982) and Seed et al. (J Geotech Eng ASCE 109(3):458–483, 1983, J Geotech Eng ASCE 111(12):1425–1445, 1985) and the Idriss and Boulanger (2004) method. Critical cyclic stress ratio was based on the empirical relationship between standard penetration resistance and cyclic stress ratio. The liquefaction potential was evaluated by determining factor of safety against liquefaction with depth for areas in the city. A soil database from 200 boreholes covering an area of 262 km² was used for the purpose. A design peak ground acceleration of 0.36 g was used since Guwahati falls in zone V according to the seismic zoning map of India. The results show that 48 sites in Guwahati are vulnerable to liquefaction according to the Seed and Idriss method and 49 sites are vulnerable to liquefaction according to the Idriss and Boulanger method. Results are presented as maps showing zones of levels of risk of liquefaction.     

Impedance Functions of Slab Foundations with Rigid Piles

The earthquake resistant design of structures depends upon the soil-structure interaction during seismic excitation. The dynamic behavior of surface foundations and deep foundations has been investigated by several authors (Gazetas in Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 2(1):2–42, 1983; Pecker in Dynamique des sols. Presses de l’Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Paris, 1984; Sieffert and Cevaer in Manuel des fonctions d’impédance. Ouest-Editions, Nantes, 1992, etc.) but the dynamic behavior of pile-reinforced soils has not been sufficiently studied yet. The design of pile-reinforced soils comprises the design of the rigid piles and the design of the earth-platform. The foundation system studied in this article consists of an earth-platform over a soft ground reinforced by deep piles. In order to understand the dynamic behavior of a rigid pile, a series of dynamic tests is conducted on an experimental site. The vertical and horizontal impedances of the slab foundation are obtained with and without rigid piles. The numerical models are developed to interpret these dynamic tests. The numerical and experimental impedance functions are compared in both the vertical and the horizontal directions. A sensitivity analysis on the influence of the physical and geometrical properties of rigid piles on the impedance functions is presented.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Tripura and Mizoram states

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in North East India is presented in this paper to evaluate the ground motion at bedrock level. Analyses were performed considering the available earthquake catalogs collected from different sources since 1731–2010 within a distance of 500 km from the political boundaries of the states. Earthquake data were declustered to remove the foreshocks and aftershocks in time and space window and then statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness. Based on seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major seismogenic zones and subsequently seismicity parameters (a and b) were calculated using Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship. Faults data were extracted from SEISAT (Seismotectonic atlas of India, Geological Survey of India, New Delhi, 2000) published by Geological Survey of India and also from satellite images. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° (approximately 5 km × 5 km), and the hazard parameters (rock level peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations) were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 500 km. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were carried out for Tripura and Mizoram states using the predictive ground motion equations given by Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) and Gupta (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 30:368–377, 2010) for subduction belt. Attenuation relations were validated with the observed PGA values. Results are presented in the form of hazard curve, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and uniform hazard spectra for Agartala and Aizawl city (respective capital cities of Tripura and Mizoram states). Spatial variation of PGA at bedrock level with 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been presented in the paper.     

Paleogeographical restoration and ramp tectonic evidence in Tunisian Tellian domain: Ain El Bey-Bou Awen area

The imbrication’s area in northern Tunisia is the most external segment of Alpine range, where several associated folds types with thrust ramps are recognized within imbricate units beneath Numidian front slope. Their presence help to understand thrusting mechanisms installation through studied area. In fact, this zone was considered as a result of Paleogene gravitary slop (Kujawski (Ann Miner Géol Tunis (24):281, 1969); Caire (Ann Min Géol Tunis 26:87–110, 1973); Rouvier 1977), which is proved to be affected by major deep decollement, given rise to various structures, some are propagation folds, specific of foreland front, limited to this area, and those in more external position: Tunisian Atlas (Creusot et al. (C R Acad Sci Paris 314(Sér II):961–965, 1992); Ouali and Mercier (PII: S0191-8141(97):00048-5, 1997); Ouali 1984; Ahmadi et al. (J Struct Geol 28:721–728, 2006)). Various categories of fold ramps could be identified: frontal folds ramp NE–SW and others as lateral or oblique ramp with NW–SE trend (Aridhi et al. (C R Geosci 343:360–369, 2011)). The relation between various structures has been used as recognition tools of thrusting sequences and to propose a new deformation chronology. Delimited outcropping of these structures between two both parallel faults strikes with regional displacement, leads to interpret these faults as cogenetic tear faults of propagation thrusts; this fault separates two domains with different deformation styles from each other side.     

Reply to ‘Comment on “The beginnings of hydrous mantle wedge melting” by Till et al.’ by Green, Rosenthal and Kovacs

The comment of Green et al. debates the interpretation of the temperature of the H₂O-saturated peridotite solidus and presence of silicate melt in the experiments of Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) at <1,000?°C. The criticisms presented in their comment do not invalidate any of the most compelling observations of Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) as discussed in the following response, including the changing minor element and Mg# composition of the solid phases with increasing temperature in our experiments with 14.5?wt% H₂O at 3.2?GPa, as well as the results of our chlorite peridotite melting experiments with 0.7?wt% H₂O. The point remains that Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) present data that call into question the H₂O-saturated peridotite solidus temperature preferred by Green (Tectonophysics 13(1–4):47–71, 1972; Earth Planet Sci Lett 19(1):37–53, 1973; Can Miner 14:255–268, 1976); Millhollen et al. (J Geol 82(5):575–587, 1974); Mengel and Green (Stability of amphibole and phlogopite in metasomatized peridotite under water-saturated and water-undersaturated conditions, Geological Society of Australia Special Publication, Blackwell, pp 571-581, 1989); Wallace and Green (Mineral Petrol 44:1–19, 1991) and Green et al. (Nature 467(7314):448–451, 2010).     

Effect of frequency-dependent radiation pattern in the strong motion simulation of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,Japan, using modified semi-empirical method

We perform a strong ground motion simulation using a modified semi-empirical technique (Midorikawa in Tectonophysics 218:287–295, 1993), with frequency-dependent radiation pattern model. Joshi et al. (Nat Hazards 71:587–609, 2014) have modified the semi-empirical technique to incorporate the modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). A frequency-dependent radiation pattern model is applied to simulate high-frequency ground motion more precisely. Identified SMGAs (Kurahashi and Irikura in Earth Planets Space 63:571–576, 2011) of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (M _w  = 9.0) were modeled using this modified technique. We analyzed the effect of changing seismic moment values of SMGAs on the simulated acceleration time series. Final selection of the moment values of SMGAs is based on the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of waveform comparison. Records are simulated for both frequency-dependent and constant radiation pattern function. Simulated records for both cases are compared with observed records in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and pseudo-acceleration response spectra at different stations. Comparison of simulated and observed records in terms of RMSE suggests that the method is capable of simulating record, which matches in a wide frequency range for this earthquake and bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. The results confirm the efficacy and suitability of rupture model defined by five SMGAs for the developed modified technique.     

Comment on “A Comparison of Modified Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,and Logistic Regression for Mapping Mineral Prospectivity” by Daojun Zhang,Frits Agterberg,Qiuming Cheng,and Renguang Zuo Math Geosci DOI 10.1007/s11004-013-9496-8

Despite a missing definition of equivalence of mathematical models or methods by Zhang et al. (Math Geosci, 2013), an “equivalence” (Zhang et al., Math Geosci, 2013, p. 6,7,8,14) of modified weights-of-evidence (Agterberg, Nat Resour Res 20:95–101, 2011) and logistic regression does not generally exist. Its alleged proof is based on a previously conjectured linear relationship between weights of evidence and logistic regression parameters (Deng, Nat Resour Res 18:249–258, 2009), which does not generally exist either (Schaeben and van den Boogaart, Nat Resour Res 20:401–406, 2011). In fact, an extremely simple linear relationship exists only if the predictor variables are conditionally independent given the target variable, in which case the contrasts, i.e., the differences of the weights, are equal to the logistic regression parameters. Thus, weights-of-evidence is the special case of logistic regression if the predictor variables are binary and conditionally independent given the target variable.     

Convergence of iterative coupling for coupled flow and geomechanics

In this paper, we study solving iteratively the coupling of flow and mechanics. We demonstrate the stability and convergence of two widely used schemes: the undrained split method and the fixed stress split method. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such results have been rigorously obtained and published in the scientific literature. In addition, we propose a new stress split method, with faster convergence rate than known schemes. These results are specially important today due to the interest in hydraulic fracturing (Dean and Schmidt SPE J. 14:707–714, 2009; Ji et al. SPE J. 14:423–430, 2009; Samier and De Gennaro 2007; Settari and Maurits SPE J. 3:219–226, 1998), in oil and gas shale reservoirs.     

Flow rule in a high-cycle accumulation model backed by cyclic test data of 22 sands

The flow rule used in the high-cycle accumulation (HCA) model proposed by Niemunis et al. (Comput Geotech 32: 245, 2005) is examined on the basis of the data from approximately 350 drained long-term cyclic triaxial tests (N = 10⁵ cycles) performed on 22 different grain-size distribution curves of a clean quartz sand. In accordance with (Wichtmann et al. in Acta Geotechnica 1: 59, 2006), for all tested materials, the “high-cyclic flow rule (HCFR)”, i.e., the ratio of the volumetric and deviatoric strain accumulation rates \(\dot{\varepsilon}_{\rm{v}}^{{\rm acc}}/\dot{\varepsilon}_{\rm{q}}^{{\rm acc}}\) , was found dependent primarily on the average stress ratio η ^av = q ^av/p ^av and independent of amplitude, soil density and average mean pressure. The experimental HCFR can be fairly well approximated by the flow rule of the modified Cam-clay (MCC) model. Instead of the critical friction angle \(\varphi_{\rm{c}}\) which enters the flow rule for monotonic loading, the HCA model uses the MCC flow rule expression with a slightly different parameter \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) . It should be determined from cyclic tests. \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) and \(\varphi_{\rm{c}}\) are of similar magnitude but not always identical, because they are calibrated from different types of tests. For a simplified calibration in the absence of cyclic test data, \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) may be estimated from the angle of repose \(\varphi_{\rm{r}}\) determined from a pluviated cone of sand (Wichtmann et al. in Acta Geotechnica 1: 59, 2006). However, the paper demonstrates that the MCC flow rule with \(\varphi_{\rm{r}}\) does not fit well the experimentally observed HCFR in the case of coarse or well-graded sands. For an improved simplified calibration procedure, correlations between \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) and parameters of the grain-size distribution curve (d ₅₀,   C _u) have been developed on the basis of the present data set. The approximation of the experimental HCFR by the generalized flow rule equations proposed in (Wichtmann et al. in J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 136: 728, 2010), considering anisotropy, is also discussed in the paper.     

The Use of Rock Mass Classification Systems to Estimate the Modulus and Strength of Jointed Rock

Three-dimensional, elastic and elasto-plastic finite element (FE) programs have permitted calculation of the displacements and the factor of safety (FOS) for the excavation for a tower, 132.70 m high (above foundation) on the island of Tenerife. The tower is supported by a 2 m thick reinforced concrete slab on jointed, vesicular and weathered basalt and scoria. The installation of rod extensometers at different depths below the slab has permitted comparison between measured and calculated displacements and the estimation of in situ deformation modulus. The moduli deduced from the simple empirical equations proposed by Hoek et al. (In: NARMS-TAC, 2002) and Gokceoglu et al. (Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 40:701–710, 2003) as a function of GSI, and Nicholson and Bieniawski (Int J Min Geol Eng 8:181–202, 1990) as a function of RMR, provide an acceptable fit with the measured settlements in this type of rock. Good correlation is also obtained with the empirical equation presented by Verman et al. (Rock Mech Rock Eng 30(3):121–127, 1997) that incorporates the influence of confining stress in the deformation modulus. The FOS obtained from different correlations with geomechanical classifications is within a relatively narrow range. These results increase our confidence in the use of classification schemes to estimate the deformation and stability in jointed rock.     

Chromite alteration processes within Vourinos ophiolite

The renewed interest in chromite ore deposits is directly related to the increase in Cr price ruled by international market trends. Chromite, an accessory mineral in peridotites, is considered to be a petrogenetic indicator because its composition reflects the degree of partial melting that the mantle experienced while producing the chromium spinel-bearing rock (Burkhard in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 57:1297–1306, 1993). However, the understanding of chromite alteration and metamorphic modification is still controversial (e.g. Evans and Frost in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 39:959–972, 1975; Burkhard in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 57:1297–1306, 1993; Oze et al. in Am J Sci 304:67–101, 2004). Metamorphic alteration leads to major changes in chromite chemistry and to the growth of secondary phases such as ferritchromite and chlorite. In this study, we investigate the Vourinos complex chromitites (from the mines of Rizo, Aetoraches, Xerolivado and Potamia) with respect to textural and chemical analyses in order to highlight the most important trend of alteration related to chromite transformation. The present study has been partially funded by the Aliakmon project in collaboration between the Public Power Corporation of Greece and Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration of Kozani.     

Oxygen fugacity control in piston-cylinder experiments: a re-evaluation

Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) investigated a double capsule assembly for use in piston-cylinder experiments that would allow hydrous, high-temperature, and high-pressure experiments to be conducted under controlled oxygen fugacity conditions. Using a platinum outer capsule containing a metal oxide oxygen buffer (Ni–NiO or Co–CoO) and H₂O, with an inner gold–palladium capsule containing hydrous melt, this study was able to compare the oxygen fugacity imposed by the outer capsule oxygen buffer with an oxygen fugacity estimated by the AuPdFe ternary system calibrated by Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010). H₂O loss or gain, as well as iron loss to the capsule walls and carbon contamination, is often observed in piston-cylinder experiments and often go unexplained. Only a few have attempted to actually quantify various aspects of these changes (Brooker et al. in Am Miner 83(9–10):985–994, 1998; Truckenbrodt and Johannes in Am Miner 84:1333–1335, 1999). It was one of the goals of Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) to address these issues by using and testing the AuPdFe solution model of Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010), as well as to constrain the oxygen fugacity of the inner capsule. The oxygen fugacities of the analyzed melts were assumed to be equal to those of the solid Ni–NiO and Co–CoO buffers, which is incorrect since the melts are all undersaturated in H₂O and the oxygen fugacities should therefore be lower than that of the buffer by 2 log $a_{{{\text{H}}_{ 2} {\text{O}}}}$ .     

Seismic hazard analysis of Sinop province,Turkey using probabilistic and statistical methods

Using 4.0 and greater magnitude earthquakes which occurred between 1 January 1900 and 31 Dec 2008 in the Sinop province of Turkey this study presents a seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic and statistical methods. According to the earthquake zonation map, Sinop is divided into first, second, third and fourth-degree earthquake regions. Our study area covered the coordinates between 40.66°– 42.82°N and 32.20°– 36.55°E. The different magnitudes of the earthquakes during the last 108 years recorded on varied scales were converted to a common scale (Mw). The earthquake catalog was then recompiled to evaluate the potential seismic sources in the aforesaid province. Using the attenuation relationships given by Boore et al. (1997) and Kalkan and Gülkan (2004), the largest ground accelerations corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years are found to be 0.14 g for bedrock at the central district. Comparing the seismic hazard curves, we show the spatial variations of seismic hazard potential in this province, enumerating the recurrence period in the order of 475 years.     

A phase-by-phase upstream scheme that converges to the vanishing capillarity solution for countercurrent two-phase flow in two-rock media

We discuss the convergence of the upstream phase-by-phase scheme (or upstream mobility scheme) towards the vanishing capillarity solution for immiscible incompressible two-phase flows in porous media made of several rock types. Troubles in the convergence were recently pointed out by Mishra and Jaffré (Comput. Geosci. 14, 105–124, 2010) and Tveit and Aavatsmark (Comput. Geosci. 16, 809–825, 2012). In this paper, we clarify the notion of vanishing capillarity solution, stressing the fact that the physically relevant notion of solution differs from the one inferred from the results of Kaasschieter (Comput. Geosci. 3, 23–48, 1999). In particular, we point out that the vanishing capillarity solution depends on the formally neglected capillary pressure curves, as it was recently proven in by Andreianov and Cancès (Comput. Geosci. 17, 551–572, 2013). Then, we propose a numerical procedure based on the hybridization of the interfaces that converges towards the vanishing capillarity solution. Numerical illustrations are provided.     

Indirect economic losses of drought under future projections of climate change: a case study for Spain

This study presents the results of numerical simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami in the Bay of Lhok Nga (northwestern coast of Sumatra, Indonesia) integrating sediment erosion and deposition. We investigate the transport of sediment both by suspension and by bedload under different scenarii of long breaking dispersive waves through a series of numerical experiments. The earthquake source model used by Koshimura et al. (Coast Eng J 51:243–273, 2008) with a 25-m dislocation better reproduces the wave travel time, flow depth and inundation area than the other models tested. The model reproduces realistically the pronounced coastal retreat in the northern part of Lhok Nga Bay (retreat ranging between 50 and 150 m), where Paris et al. (Geomorphology 104:59–72, 2009) estimated a mean retreat of 80 m. There is also a good agreement between the simulated area of coastal retreat (195,400 m²) and the field observations (203,200 m²). The simulation may underestimate the volume of tsunami deposits (611,700 m³ vs. 500,000–1,000,000 m³ estimated by Paris et al. (2009). The model fully reproduces the observed thickness of tsunami deposits when considering both bedload and suspension, even if bedload transport dominates. Limitations are due to micro-scale topographic, anthropic features (which are not always represented by the DEM) and the amount of debris which may influence flow dynamics and sediment transport.     

Pushover and nonlinear time history analysis evaluation of a RC building collapsed during the Van (Turkey) earthquake on October 23, 2011

The nonlinear seismic behavior of a collapsed reinforced concrete (RC) residential building in the city of Van in Turkey is investigated by the static pushover and nonlinear time history analyses. The selected RC structure was designed according to the 1975 version of Turkish Earthquake Code (TEC-1975). The building had experienced heavy damage, and it was demolished in the Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The 2007 version of Turkish Earthquake Code (TEC-2007) is considered for the assessing seismic performance evaluation of the selected RC building. The RC structure presents collapse performance level under the earthquake loads. Besides, the analytical solutions show that different performance levels for the sections are obtained from the pushover and nonlinear time history methods.     

Discussion of “The Bushveld Complex,South Africa: formation of platinum–palladium,chrome- and vanadium-rich layers via hydrodynamic sorting of a mobilized cumulate slurry in a large,relatively slowly cooling,subsiding magma chamber” by Maier et al. (2013) Miner Deposita 48:1–56

We believe the hypothesis presented by Maier et al. (Miner Deposita 48:1–56, 2012) for the formation of the various ore bodies in the Bushveld Complex to be overly simplistic, and we raise concerns that some of our work, used in support of this hypothesis, has been misrepresented. The formation of both diverse metalliferous layers (platinum-group element (PGE) reefs and Ti-magnetite layers) and some discordant (pipe) ore deposits has been ascribed by Maier et al. to the single unifying process of hydrodynamic sorting. The problem faced by authors of universal hypotheses for the Bushveld Complex is the sheer size and complexity of the intrusion. We disagree with many aspects of the overall Maier et al. model and have also identified several minor errors on maps and photographs, although some of these do not have a material effect on the model. The nature and origin of the layering is, however, too complex a topic to deal with in the context of this commentary, and we restrict ourselves to noting that our preferred hypothesis, namely the incremental buildup of layering from numerous episodes of replenishment, by different magma lineages, is consistent with field relationships. Our hypothesis for the origin of the ultramafic-hosted PGE-rich reefs, i.e., lateral mixing, is applicable to economically mineralized reefs (Mitchell and Scoon, Econ Geol 102:971–1009, 2007) and poorly mineralized layers such as the Pseudoreef harzburgite (Scoon and De Klerk, Canad Mineral 25:51–77, 1987) and the chromitite layers below the UG2 (Scoon and Teigler, Econ Geol 89:1094–1121, 1994).     

Modeling of strong motion generation area of the Uttarkashi earthquake using modified semiempirical approach

The semiempirical approach based on envelope summation method given by Midorikawa (Tectonophysics 218:287–295, 1993) has been modified in this paper for modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). Horizontal components of strong ground motion have been simulated using modifications in the semiempirical approach given by Joshi et al. (Nat Hazard 71:587–609, 2014). Various modifications in the technique account for finite rupture source, layering of earth, componentwise division of energy and frequency-dependent radiation pattern. In this paper, SMGAs of the Uttarkashi earthquake have been modeled. Two different isolated wave packets in the recorded accelerogram have been identified from recorded ground motion, which accounts for two different SMGAs in the entire rupture plane. The approximate locations of SMGAs within the rupture plane were estimated using spatio-temporal variation of 77 aftershocks. Source parameters of each SMGA were calculated from theoretical and observed source displacement spectra computed from two different wave packets in the record. The final model of rupture plane responsible for the Uttarkashi earthquake consists of two SMGAs, and the same has been used to simulate horizontal components of acceleration records at different station using modified semiempirical technique. Comparison of the observed and simulated acceleration records in terms of root mean square error confirms the suitability of the final source model for the Uttarkashi earthquake.