Global Cloud Cover and the Earth’s Mean Surface Temperature

The well-known 11-year cycle in low cloud cover amount for Solar Cycle Number 22 and the trend with time for Solar Cycle Number 23 are interpreted as being due to similar changes, but of opposite phase, in the mean global surface temperature of the Earth. An analysis of cloud amounts in two higher altitude bands shows that they, and the surface temperature, are roughly in phase with each other. The suggested mechanism to explain this result is that a warming of the Earth’s surface causes low clouds to rise and to be reclassified in the next upper category. The energetics of the process are shown to be satisfactory for this to be the correct explanation.     

Time variation of atmospheric pressure and circulation associated with temperature changes during Solar Proton Events

A decrease of the direct solar radiation at the Earths surface and associated variations of the altitudinal temperature profile observed during Solar Proton Events (SPE) discussed by Pudovkin and Babushkina, 1992b, Pudovkin and Veretenenko, 1994 are believed to be caused by the appearance of a layer which partially reflects solar radiation (by up to 10%) at an altitude of about 9 km. This layer is associated with the cirrus cloud that can be nucleated by Solar Cosmic Ray (SCR) particles (see Tinsley and Deen, 1991; Tinsley and Heelis, 1993). The calculated variations of the altitudinal profile of the air temperature in the high latitude atmosphere (Sodankyla, Finland, φ ≈ 67° N) after the SPE, caused by the appearance of this layer, are in good agreement with experimental data.The variations of the temperature profile (|ΔT| ? 2–3 K at z < 10 km) in the high latitude atmosphere during the SPE may produce a time variation of the meridional pressure profile, which in turn might cause a change of the zonal circulation. The expected changes of pressure at the Earths surface, the heights of constant pressure levels and the zonal circulation are shown to be similar to those observed, but which are smaller in magnitude. These quantitative differences can be associated with the oversimplification of the atmospheric model that we used.     

太阳黑子相对数最强周期的小波分析

利用小波变换,分析了1749年以来每个太阳活动周太阳黑子相对数的最强周期以及第1～22太阳活动周的最强周期. 分析结果表明,在第5和第6个太阳活动周,太阳黑子相对数最强的周期分别为64.67年和69.31年;在第13～15太阳活动周,太阳黑子相对数的最强周期分别为98.02年,105.06年和105.06年. 在第1～22太阳活动周中,太阳黑子相对数最强的周期是128个月,约10.67年,其他太阳活动周的最强周期介于9.29～11.43年之间. 本文最后给出了128个月周期的幅度随时间的变化.     

第23太阳活动周的黑子数峰值特征预报

Using the characteristic values of sunspot number variations during the descent and ascent of solar cycles,a neural network is designed to make long-term predications of the ascending period and the maximum smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for the Solar Cycle　23. Moreover,the factor of geomagnetic disturbance is also added as an input. The trained and tested results from Solar Cycle 12 to 22 have been obtained. Finally,the predictions of the ascending period and the maximum smoothed monthly mean sunspot number are given for Solar Cycle 23.     

SOFIE PMC observations during the northern summer of 2007

This work examines the first season of polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) observations from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE). SOFIE observations of temperature, water vapor, and PMC frequency, mass density, particle shape, and size distribution are used to characterize the seasonal evolution and altitude dependence of mesospheric ice and the surrounding environment. SOFIE indicates that ice is nearly always present during summer, and that the ice layer is continuous from about 81 km altitude to the mesopause and above. Ice particles are observed to be more aspherical above and below the extinction peak altitude, suggesting a relationship between particle shape and mass density. The smallest particles are observed near the top of the ice layer while the largest particles exist at low concentrations near cloud base. A strong correlation was found between water vapor and particle size with small particles existing when H₂O is low. This relationship holds when examining variability in altitude, and variability over time at one altitude.     

Modelling the Northern Hemisphere temperature for solar cycles 24 and 25

It is uncertain whether the solar cycle 24 will have a high or a low sunspot maximum number. In its last revision the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel indicates that the low prediction is the most likely. Also, solar cycle 25 is considered to present an equal or lower activity than cycle 24. In order to assess the possible effect of the solar activity on temperature, in the present work we attempt to model the tendency of the Northern Hemisphere temperature for the years 2009–2029, corresponding to solar cycles 24 and 25, using a thermodynamic climate model. We include as forcings the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the solar activity by means of the total solar irradiance, considering that the latter has not only a direct effect on climate, but also an indirect one through the modulation of the low cloud cover. We use two IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios, one with a high fossil consumption and other with a low use of fossil sources. Also we consider higher and lower solar activity conditions. We found that in all the performed experiments the inclusion of the solar activity produces a noticeable reduction in warming respect to the IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios. Such reduction goes between ～14% and ～44%. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the TCM, we use the root mean square (RMS) between the observed and model temperatures for the period 1980–2003. We find that the RMS for the experiment using the CO₂ as the only forcing is 0.06 °C,while for the experiment that includes also the solar activity it is higher, 0.13 °C.     

基于COSMIC掩星探测资料的云底高反演研究

本文基于相对湿度廓线进入云层时的突变实现云底高反演的思想,采用2008年11月至2009年1月的COSMIC掩星湿空气数据反演全球云底高度,并与探空资料反演结果进行对比分析,得出以下重要结论:(1)当温度－40 ℃相似文献   

Diffuse solar radiation and associated meteorological parameters in India

Solar diffuse radiation data including global radiation, shortwave and longwave balances, net radiation and sunshine hours have been extensively analyzed to study the variation of diffuse radiation with turbidity and cloud discharges appearing in the form of atmospherics over the tropics. Results of surface radiation measurements at Calcutta, Poona, Delhi and Madras are presented together with some meteorological parameters. The monthly values of diffuse radiation and the monthly ratios of diffuse to global solar radiation have been examined, with a special emphasis in relation to the noise level of atmospherics at Calcutta in the very low frequency band. The results exhibit some definite seasonal changes which appear to be in close agreement with one another.     

Space environment effects and satellite design

The space environment continues to be a major cause of anomalies in communications satellites, in spite of much knowledge gained over the past three decades. The two most common causes of anomalies are surface charging and deep dielectric (dis)charging, but other effects, such as total radiation dose, must be accounted for in the design, particularly of solar arrays and electronics. Many space environments are difficult to predict accurately, for example the peak intensity of the developing Solar Cycle 23, and in particular the radiation dose to be expected from it. The recent Leonid storm provides an example of the extreme variation possible between prediction and reality. Telesat's investigations into space-weather-related anomalies are described, and our approach to minimizing susceptibility of satellites to space weather is outlined. Space environment specifications for procurement contracts are reviewed and some general design guidelines are described.     

The Clouds of the Middle Troposphere: Composition, Radiative Impact, and Global Distribution

The clouds of the middle troposphere span the temperature range where both ice and liquid water in a supercooled state can exist. However, because one phase tends to dominate, of the two midlevel cloud types, altostratus are deep ice-dominated, while altocumulus are shallow water-dominated, mixed-phase clouds with ice crystal virga typically trailing below. Multiple remote sensor examples of these cloud types are given to illustrate their main features, and the radiative consequences of the different cloud microphysical compositions are discussed. Spaceborne radar and lidar measurements using the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites are analyzed to determine the global distributions of cloud frequencies and heights of these clouds. It is found that together these little-studied clouds cover ~25% of the Earth’s surface, which is about one-third of the total cloud cover, and thus represent a significant contribution to the planet’s energy balance.     

Parameterizations of cloud feedback in a radiative-convective model

The effect of cloud feedback on the response of a radiative-convective model to a change in cloud model parameters, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, and solar constant has been studied using two different parameterization schemes. The method for simulating the vertical distribution of both cloud cover and cloud optical thickness, which depends on the relative humidity and on the saturation mixing ratio of water vapor, respectively, is the same in both approaches, but the schemes differ with respect to modeling the water vapor profile. In scheme I atmospheric water vapor is coupled to surface parameters, while in scheme II an explicit balance equation for water vapor in the individual atmospheric layers is used. For both models the combined effect of feedbacks due to variations in lapse rate, cloud cover, and cloud optical thickness results in different relationships between changes in surface temperature, planetary temperature, and cloud cover. Specifically, for a CO₂ doubling and a 2% increase in solar constant, in both models the surface warming is reduced by cloud feedback, in contrast to no feedback, with the greater reduction in scheme I as compared to that of scheme II.     

关于太阳活动预测与自然灾害预测

日地系统学中, 自然灾害与太阳活动的关系研究, 导致了自然灾害预测与太阳活动预测之间关系的探讨本文比较了太阳活动预测与自然灾害预测, 指出它们在目的、用户、观测资料的特征、预报方法以及面临的问题几方面的差异; 介绍了自然灾害预测与太阳活动预测的几点可能的关系; 简单讨论了衡量预报水平的指标问题最后列出了第２３ 黑子周特征值的一些预测结果     

震前云下增温异常及其时段特征

利用卫星热红外图像资料做地震短临预报, 主要依据的是地表大气增温异常在卫星图像上的亮温反映。 但在阴云密布的天气条件下, 这种预报方法却受到了限制, 因为卫星无法探测到地面或水面是否有增温异常。 通过气象资料分析, 得知云层或其他气象条件引起的降温并不能改变震前地表温度增加的趋势。 某些地震之前虽然震中及其附近地区天空阴云密布, 地面增温幅度却可高达十几度。 云下增温曲线可划分为3个时段(即A、 B、 C段), 其中A段与C段分别为增温前与震后的温度变化曲线, 多与日照时间呈正相关关系, 特别是A段的这种关系更具普遍性。 然而, 反映震前地面增温特征的B段却与日照时间没有明显的相关性, 可见这种持续增温、 与云量无关的波状增温等都主要不是由日照或气象条件引起的, 而是一种与地下应力作用、 气体释放、 瞬变电场等有关的震兆现象。 因此, 提高对云下增温的系统观测能力, 是改善热红外地震预报的有效途径。     

The nuclei of natural cloud formation part I: The chemical diffusion method and its application to atmospheric nuclei

Summary Condensation nuclei which grow into droplets in natural clouds constitute only a small fraction of the total population of nuclei, since they must be activated at low supersaturations (<1%). Such nuclei cannot readily be measured by the usual expansion methods. A chemical diffusion method is described in which water vapour and HCl vapour diffuse between a water surface and an aqueous HCl solution; this produces the continuous small supersaturations required to study these «cloud nuclei». Nucleus numbers are obtained photographically. Results of observations made by this method during the period April–August 1958 are presented and discussed; they suggest that the main source of cloud nuclei is the dry land surface.     

Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review

The response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming, one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m^?2 K^?1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.     

An explanation of discrepancy in mesospheric temperature trends derived from ground-based LF phase-height observations

Bremer and Berger (J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys. 64 (2002) 805) applied a correction for trends in the NO concentration and α_eff in the interpretation of trends in the low frequency (LF) phase height measurements and obtained results less consistent with model simulations as well as the observed trends in mesospheric temperatures. The correction is shown to be too large most probably due to the application of inappropriate trends in α_eff of Chakrabarty (Adv. Space Res. 20 (1997) 2117), which yield a trend in electron density opposite to that which is observed. The discrepancy between the observational data and model-simulated trends of Bremer and Berger (J. Atoms. Solar. Terr. Phys. 64 (2002) 805) in the LF phase heights can be largely removed. Even more important, the trends in mesospheric temperatures inferred by Bremer and Berger (J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys. 64 (2002) 805) from trends in the LF phase heights without the inappropriate correction agree well with the results of analysis of a global set of results on trends in the mesospheric temperatures by Beig et al. (Rev. Geophys. 41 (2003) 1015).     

Impact of soil moisture heterogeneity length scale and gradients on daytime coupled land‐cloudy boundary layer interactions

Using a coupled large‐eddy simulation–land surface model framework, the impact of two‐dimensional soil moisture heterogeneity on the cloudy boundary layer under varied free‐atmosphere stabilities is investigated. Specifically, the impacts of soil moisture heterogeneity length scale and heterogeneity in terms of soil moisture gradients on micrometeorological states, surface fluxes, boundary layer characteristics, and cloud development are examined. The results show that mesoscale circulations due to surface heterogeneity in soil moisture play an important role in transferring water vapour within the boundary layer and in regulating cloud distribution at the entrainment zone, which, in turn, provides feedbacks on boundary layer/surface energy budgets. The initial domain‐averaged soil moisture is identical for all homogenous and heterogeneous cases; however, the soil moisture heterogeneity in gradient and length scale between dry and wet regions has a significant impact on the estimates of near‐surface micrometeorological properties and surface fluxes, which further affect the boundary layer states and characteristics. Both liquid water potential temperature and liquid water mixing ratio increase with an increasing soil moisture gradient, whereas the amount of specific humidity decreases. Heterogeneity length scale and free atmosphere stability also amplify these impacts on the boundary layer structure and cloud formation. In a low atmospheric stability condition that potentially allows for a deeper boundary layer and a higher entrainment rate, cloud base height and cloud thickness significantly increase as the soil moisture gradient and length scale increase. Analysis to differentiate the influences of surface heterogeneity type (i.e. length scale vs gradient) shows that in general soil moisture gradient provides a larger impact than heterogeneity length scale, although the heterogeneity length scale is large enough to initiate circulation features responsible for differences in the coupled system between homogeneous and heterogeneous soil moisture cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-latitude methane sulphonic acid variability and solar activity: the role of the total solar irradiance

The direct impact of solar activity on climate has been widely studied through Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Biological processes also impact climate and are deeply affected by TSI. Marine phytoplankton emissions into the atmosphere have been proposed to change cloud albedo through cloud formation. In this work, we use wavelet analysis to investigate the decadal relation between high-latitude concentrations of methane sulphonic acid, a product of seawater algae, and TSI. We found that some of the methane sulphonic acid main periodicities coincide with periods of solar activity periods.     

On the regional climatic impact of contrails: microphysical and radiative properties of contrails and natural cirrus clouds

The impact of contrail-induced cirrus clouds on regional climate is estimated for mean atmospheric conditions of southern Germany in the months of July and October. This is done by use of a regionalized one-dimensional radiative convective model (RCM). The influence of an increased ice cloud cover is studied by comparing RCM results representing climatological values with a modified case. In order to study the sensitivity of this effect on the radiative characteristics of the ice cloud, two types of additional ice clouds were modelled: cirrus and contrails, the latter cloud type containing a higher number of smaller and less of the larger cloud particles. Ice cloud parameters are calculated on the basis of a particle size distribution which covers the range from 2 to 2000 m, taking into consideration recent measurements which show a remarkable amount of particles smaller than 20 m. It turns out that a 10% increase in ice cloud cover leads to a surface temperature increase in the order of 1K, ranging from 1.1 to 1.2K in July and from 0.8 to 0.9K in October depending on the radiative characteristics of the air-traffic-induced ice clouds. Modelling the current contrail cloud cover which is near 0.5% over Europe yields a surface temperature increase in the order of 0.05 K.