Analysis of the global tsunami data for vulnerability and risk assessment

For the assessment of tsunami risk and vulnerability, one has to make use of past tsunami observations. The most comprehensive tsunami databases for the world have been prepared by the National Geophysical Data Center of USA which are listed on their website for all the four oceans as well as the following marginal seas: Caribbean Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Red Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The dataset goes back as far as the first century AD and lists the events on a confidence rating scale of 0–4; 0 being an erroneous entry and 4 being a definite tsunami. Based on these various datasets for different geographical areas, a comprehensive global dataset was prepared in this study, which included only tsunami events with confidence rating of 3 and 4, meaning either probable or definite. In this composite and abridged global tsunami database there is no distinction either according to geography or tsunami strength as implied by its impact on the coast. A simple and straightforward statistical analysis suggests an almost complete randomness and no patterns that can be used for future tsunami predictions with a few minor exceptions.     

Heavy metal contents in soil of major towns in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia

A total of 63 soil samples from 3 different soil profiles （urban, suburban and industrial areas） in major towns in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia were analyzed for the total concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni and Cr. The soil samples were subjected to acid digestion and the concentrations of total metals extracted were measured or flame atomic absorption spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma - atomic emission spectrometry. According to the result of this study, Pb and Zn concentrations in urban soils are much higher than those of industrial and suburban soils. Total concentrations of Cu and Cr in industrial soil samples are high compared to other two soil profiles and Ni concentrations in the suburban area are slightly higher those of urban and industrial soils. Since Malaysia has not yet to come up with her own soil maximum allowable limit, the heavy metal concentrations were compared with the Dutch maximum allowable limit. The results indicated that the median of heavy metals values in the three different soil profiles is still below the Dutch system limit. From the maximum allowable value obtained from the Dutch system, a contamination/pollution （C/p） index for each site was calculated for the set of these five heavy metals. An advantage of using this method is to make a differentiation between pollution （C/p〉1） and contamination （C/p〈1） status in soils as well as being able to characterize each status into 5 different categories （slight, moderate, severe, very severe and excessive）.     

Groundwater resources assessment using integrated geophysical techniques in the southwestern region of Peninsular Malaysia

Combined geophysical techniques such as multi-electrode resistivity, induced polarization, and borehole geophysical techniques were carried out on volcano-sedimentary rocks in the north of Gemas as part of the groundwater resource’s investigations. The result identifies four resistivity units: the tuffaceous mudstone, tuffaceous sandstone, the tuff bed, and the shale layer. Two types of aquifer systems in terms of storage were identified within the area: one within a fracture system (tuff), which is the leaky area through which vertical flow of groundwater occurs, and an intergranular property of the sandy material of the aquifer which includes sandstone and tuffaceous sandstone. The result also reveals that the aquifer occupies a surface area of about 3,250,555 m² with a mean depth of 43.71 m and a net volume of 9.798?×?10⁷?m³. From the approximate volume of the porous zone (28 %) and the total aquifer volume, a usable capacity of (274.339?±?30.177)?×?10⁷?m³ of water in the study area can be deduced. This study provides useful information that can be used to develop a much broader understanding of the nature of groundwater potential in the area and their relationship with the local geology.     

Coastal vulnerability assessment for Chennai, east coast of India using geospatial techniques

The study area is 56-km coastal zone of Chennai district of the Tamil Nadu state, southeast coast of India. The coastline, which includes tourist resorts, ports, hotels, fishing villages, and towns, has experienced threats from many disasters such as storms, cyclones, floods, tsunami, and erosion. This was one of the worst affected area during 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and during 2008 Nisha cyclone. The present study aims to develop a Coastal Vulnerability Index for the Chennai coast using eight relative risk variables to know the high and low vulnerable areas, areas of inundation due to future SLR, and land loss due to coastal erosion. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analyzed with the aid of the remote sensing and geographic information system tools. Zones of vulnerability to coastal natural hazards of different magnitude (high, medium, and low) are identified and shown on a map. Coastal regional elevation, near-shore bathymetry, and socio-economic conditions have been considered as additional important variables. This study revealed that 11.01?km of the coastline has low vulnerability, 16.66?km has medium vulnerability, and 27.79?km is highly vulnerable in the study area, showing the majority of coastline is prone to erosion. The map prepared for the Chennai coast can be used by the state and district administration involved in the disaster mitigation and management plan and also as a tool in planning a new facility and for insurance purpose.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.     

Groundwater vulnerability assessment in the Melaka State of Malaysia using DRASTIC and GIS techniques

The present work attempts to interpret the groundwater vulnerability of the Melaka State in peninsular Malaysia. The state of groundwater pollution in Melaka is a critical issue particularly in respect of the increasing population, and tourism industry as well as the agricultural, industrial and commercial development. Focusing on this issue, the study illustrates the groundwater vulnerability map for the Melaka State using the DRASTIC model together with remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS). The data which correspond to the seven parameters of the model were collected and converted into thematic maps by GIS. Seven thematic maps defining the depth to water level, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity were generated to develop the DRASTIC map. In addition, this map was integrated with a land use map for generating the risk map to assess the effect of land use activities on the groundwater vulnerability. Three types of vulnerability zones were assigned for both DRASTIC map and risk map, namely, high, moderate and low. The DRASTIC map illustrates that an area of 11.02 % is low vulnerability, 61.53 % moderate vulnerability and 23.45 % high vulnerability, whereas the risk map indicates that 14.40 % of the area is low vulnerability, 47.34 % moderate vulnerability and 38.26 % high vulnerability in the study area. The most vulnerability area exists around Melaka, Jasin and Alor Gajah cities of the Melaka State.     

Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Heavy metal pollution assessment in marine sediments in the Northwest coast of Sabah,Malaysia

Heavy metal contents along the Northwest coast of Sabah were determined to interpret the pollution level in the marine sediment. The metal abundance is regulated by the physico-chemical properties such as the average sediment pH(7.82, 9.00 and 8.99), organic matter(0.62%, 1.60%, and 2.27%), moisture content(25.00%, 29.70%, and 15.00%) and sandy texture in Kota Belud, Kudat and Mantanani Island,respectively. The major elements show Ca>Fe>Mg>Al>Mn for all study sites, while the heavy m...     

The impact of poverty on fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: A cohort analysis

The New Economic Policy (NEP) formulated in 1970 in Peninsular Malaysia had a two-fold aim of reducing poverty and redressing ethnic inequalities in wealth. The spatial bias of development on the west coast where the Chinese concentrate in the urban centres was also addressed. Population planning worked in tandem with NEP to reduce Malay to non-Malay differences in fertility. 1980 census data was evaluated to assess the impact of NEP on fertility transition in the country. Socioeconomic data for specific cohorts (15–24; 25–34 and 35–49) were collected and factor analysed to examine poverty conditions. The study found poverty to be differentiated by ethnicity. Malay poverty is high in both absolute (e.g. employment rate and education) and relative terms (as compared to the Chinese). The Chinese dimension is the exact opposite. Unfortunately, regional polarisation of wealth remains unchanged, even a decade after NEP. Poverty was regressed against cohort fertility and found to increase with it, especially for the older cohorts. Although NEP reduced fertility among the youngest cohort, its impact was not exceptionally large. The NEP is currently up for review. The apparent failure of the policy to achieve income equity and fertility transition must therefore be taken seriously.     

Assessing building vulnerability to tsunami using the PTVA-3 model: A case study of Chabahar Bay,Iran

Chabahar Bay, in southeastern Iran, lies at the north of the Gulf of Oman and close to the Makran Subduction Zone, which makes it a region that is susceptible to tsunamis. This bay has an increasingly important role in Iran’s international trade, and therefore the assessment of the regional vulnerability to the effects of a tsunami is vital. Based on both the details of historical events and the results of numerical modeling of the propagation pattern of a tsunami in this region, this study assessed the vulnerability of buildings within the Chabahar Bay region to a tsunami event. The Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) model was used to calculate a relative vulnerability index (RVI) for the affected buildings based on their physical and structural characteristics. The results showed that in a postulated worst-case-scenario tsunami event in the Chabahar Bay area, approximately 60 % of the residential buildings would be affected, a level of damage that is categorized as “Average” in the RVI classification. Overall, the economic losses related to the damage of residential buildings due to a tsunami in the Chabahar Bay area are anticipated to be the equivalent of US$ 16.5 million.     

潮滩脆弱性评估方法研究综述

由于潮滩组成要素不稳定、地理区位特殊以及人为因素的制约,导致潮滩极易受外在和内在因素的影响,发生自然系统脆弱性(包括固有脆弱性和特殊脆弱性)。在总结国内外关于潮滩脆弱性评估方法(诸如综合指数法、层次分析法等综合评估方法以及主成分分析法、高程面积法等单一影响评价法)基础上,根据潮滩脆弱性评估的选择原则,构建了潮滩脆弱性评估指标体系,以期为沿海地区的可持续发展提供理论和技术支撑。     

A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon.

     

Thorium distribution in the soils of Peninsular Malaysia and its implications for Th resource estimation

As the national electricity consumption peaked over the years, and the reserves of fossil fuels are becoming scarce, interest in thorium fuel-based nuclear energy generation as an alternative energy source for Malaysia is renewed. This paper provides a preliminary investigation of thorium (Th) availability in Peninsular Malaysia. The study is based on assessment of Th contents in soil. Indicated by massive and fertile Th resources associated with granitic belts, 4 series of regional on-ground explorations are implemented in Peninsular Malaysia to obtain the baseline data of Th availability. The geological settings of Th prospect areas and the result of statistical analyses of Th data are discussed. The isoconcentration mapping of Th is developed and the Th prospect areas in Peninsular Malaysia are highlighted. The possibility, availability, production trends and economic issues of Th recovery from tin by-products and heavy mineral products, as well as the potential of black sand placer deposit as a Th resource in Peninsular Malaysia are also discussed.     

A simplified approach for flood vulnerability assessment of historic sites

In the last decades, floods have increased in frequency all over the world due to diverse phenomena such as climate change, extended urbanization, land use, etc. Their social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts have also grown significantly, highlighting the need for the development of further studies and improved methods to manage and mitigate flood risk, mainly in urban areas. Historic sites need particular attention in this field, not only because the high and irreplaceable cultural value of these areas, but also taking into account that the constructive typologies that they host are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In consequence of that, the analysis of the phenomena, the evaluation of their consequences and the adoption of adequate mitigation and preparedness measures are presently a fundamental societal challenge. Having this in mind, the present paper aims at proposing an innovative methodology focused on the assessment of flood vulnerability in historic sites through the evaluation of a set of exposure and sensitivity indicators. From the analysis of these indicators, it is possible to obtain a Flood Vulnerability Index capable of measuring the spread of flood vulnerability over an extended area. The historic centre of Guimarães, in Portugal, declared by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in 2001, is used here as a pilot case study to apply and discusses the preliminary version of the approach. Although some improvements are still needed, this approach can be already used to provides preliminary vulnerability scenarios and to point the way to the definition of more efficient and customized strategies for managing and mitigating flood risk in historic sites. Moreover, with further improvements and calibrations resorting to larger and more diverse data, it will be possible to reduce some of the uncertainties currently involved in the assessment process and to make its application wider and more robust.

     

地下水防污性能评价方法探讨

地下水防污性能评价是环境规划和决策的有用工具,国外已有许多研究,也提出了各种计算防污性能指数模型。文中着重介绍使用最广泛的DRASTIC模型,并指出其不足之处。根据中国情况,提出用DRTA模型评价潜水的防污性能,用DLCT模型评价承压含水层的防污性能。DRTA模型包含有地下水埋深、包气带评分介质、包气带评分介质的厚度和含水层厚度4 个因子;DLCT模型包含有承压含水层埋深、隔水层岩性、隔水层的连续性和隔水层厚度4个因子。