Contextualizing social vulnerability: findings from case studies across Europe

Social vulnerability is a term that has been widely used in the natural hazards literature for quite a few years now. Yet, regardless of how scholars define the term, the approaches and indicators they use remain contested. This article presents findings from social vulnerability assessments conducted in different case studies of flood events in Europe (Germany, Italy and the UK). The case studies relied upon a common set of comparable indicators, but they also adopted a context-sensitive, qualitative approach. A shared finding across the case studies was that it was not possible to identify a common set of socio-economic–demographic indicators to explain social vulnerability of groups and/or individuals for all phases of the disastrous events. Similarly, network-related indicators as well as location- and event-specific indicators did not have the relevance we expected them to have. The results underline that vulnerability is a product of specific spatial, socio-economic–demographic, cultural and institutional contexts imposing not only specific challenges to cross-country research concerning social vulnerability to flooding but also to attempts at assessing social vulnerability in general. The study ends with some reflections upon the methodological, practical and theoretical implications of our findings.     

The Southeast France basin during Late Cretaceous times: The spatiotemporal link between Pyrenean collision and Alpine subduction

We present and discuss the Late Cretaceous evolution of the Southeast France Basin (SEFB) owing to the Pyrenean and Alpine belts. The available geological data (isopachs maps, boreholes and field data) were integrated in 3D GeoModeller software to build a 3D model of the geometry of the Cenomanian to Campanian sedimentary series of the Late Cretaceous period. Maps, 3D block diagrams and cross-sections extracted from the 3D model reveal a significant eastward marine regression during the Late Cretaceous with an average velocity of 0.5 to 1 cm per year. According to the location of the Late Cretaceous depocenters, two sub-basins are recognized in the SEFB and correspond to “en-échelon” synclines filled by syn-buckling sediments. These events are related to the sub-meridian “Pyrenean-Provence” crustal shortening. During Campanian time, the deepening and the tilting of the SEFB are interpreted as a consequence of the subduction of the Alpine Tethys. The Late Cretaceous SEFB is the prolongation on the European foreland of the Alpine subduction trench.     

Forecasting flood disasters using an accelerated genetic algorithm: Examples of two case studies for China

This article discusses a rescaled range analysis model, titled AGA-R/S, that is based on an accelerated genetic algorithm. The parameter a, Hurst index of rescaled range analysis, and the recurrent time of disaster in the next time-period, were directly computed using an accelerated genetic algorithm developed by the authors. As case studies, using the AGA-R/S model, a forecast was made of the tendency for change in a time series of annual precipitation for the city of Jinhua, China. The model also forecast flooding-disaster in the city of Wuzhou, China. Results indicate that it is a relatively efficient technique to forecast the change-tendency of flood and disaster time series using the AGA-R/S model. When time series is utilized, forecasted error of the AGA-R/S model is less than with a linear least square method. The Hurst indexes of the two cities are from 0.23 to 0.24, which indicates that these time series are fractal and relatively long-term. Their fractional Brownian motion shows anti-persistence. AGA-R/S has application in forecasting the change-tendency of other natural disaster for specific time series.     

A missing link of the Proto-Tethys Ocean between the Qinling and Qilian orogens,China:Insights from geochronology and structural geology

The Qinling-Qilian connection zone(QQCZ) is a key area to reveal the relationship and to make a link of the North Qinling and the North Qilian orogens,China.Here we present U-Pb dating data of detrital zircons from four sedimentary/metasedimentary rocks in the QQCZ and the southwestern North China Block(NCB) and detailed regional structural data.Three episodes of fold deformation(D_1,D_2 and D3) are distinguished in the QQCZ,with the former two occurred during the early Paleozoic.The D_1 deformation is mainly characterized by regionally penetrative schistosity and some residual rootless intrafolial folds due to the intensive superpositions by the subsequent D_2 and D3 deformations.The D_2 deformation characterized by tight folds,associated axial plane foliations and crenulation lineations indicates a stress field characterized by NNE-SSW-directed compression,which may be induced by the collision between the NCB and the southern blocks.The D3 deformation which might occur during the Mesozoic is marked by upright open folds and kink bands.The similarity of the detrital zircon age spectra of the Huluhe Group in the North Qilian Orogen and the Erlangping Group in the North Qinling Orogen suggests that the two groups have similar provenance,which may indicate that the North Qilian Orogen corresponded to the North Qinling Orogen in a regional tectonic framework.In addition,the remarkable age peak at～435 Ma of the detrital zircon age spectrum of the Duanjiaxia Formation in the southwestern NCB indicates that this formation obtained the provenance of the North Qilian and North Qinling orogens,which may be generated by the collage of the southwestern NCB and the QQCZ during the Late Ordovician-Early Silurian.Based on structural,detrital zircon and metamorphic data,we suggest that the North Qilian and North Qinling orogens underwent similar evolution during the early Paleozoic due to the closure of the North Qilian and the Kuanping oceans which located at the northern boundary of the Proto-Tethys Ocean.     

Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods

Understanding and improving the public perception has become an important element in the management of flood risk worldwide. In Iceland, studying perception of flood hazard and flood risk is, however, in its early stages. This paper presents a case study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in an Icelandic town prone to ice-jam floods. Awareness of the population regarding historical inundations, self estimation of flood risk and worry is considered. The factual knowledge of the residents is deconstructed in flood hazard parameters accessible to the lay population: number of events, dates, genesis and boundaries. The performance of the respondents is rated for each parameter and the influence of several predictors evaluated. The research shows three significant patterns: there is poor awareness and little worry about historical inundations in the area; experience of the past flooding events in town is the most effective source of knowledge; awareness, risk estimation and worry are not correlated.     

Using value engineering to optimize flood forecasting and flood warning systems: Golestan and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as case studies

Flood occurrence has always been one of the most important natural phenomena, which is often associated with disaster. Consequently, flood forecasting (FF) and flood warning (FW) systems, as the most efficient non-structural measures in reducing flood loss and damage, are of prime importance. These systems are low cost and the time required for their implementation is relatively short. It is emphasized that for designing the components of these systems for various rivers, climatic conditions and geographical settings different methods are required. One of the major difficulties during implementing these systems in different projects is the fact that sometimes the main functions of these systems are ignored. Based on a systematic and practical approach and considering the components of these systems, it would be possible to extract the most essential key functions of the system and save time, effort and money by this way. For instance, in a small watershed with low concentration and small lead time, the main emphasis should be on predicting and monitoring weather conditions. In this article, different components of flood forecasting and flood warning systems have been introduced. Then analysis of the FF and FW system functions has been undertaken based on the value engineering (VE) technique. Utilizing a functional view based on function analysis system technique (FAST), the total trend of FF and FW functions has been identified. The systematic trend and holistic view of this technique have been used in optimizing FF and FW systems of the Golestan province and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as the case studies.     

Alpine overdeepenings and paleo-ice flow changes: an integrated geophysical-sedimentological case study from Tyrol (Austria)

We present a study of the inneralpine basin of Hopfgarten focused on the analysis of basin fill in order to reveal its formation in relation to paleo-ice flow and tectonics. The study is based on geological mapping as well as seismic (reflection and refraction) and geoelectrical surveys. The oldest sequence in the basin, identified by seismic stratigraphy at 400 m below surface, consists of coarse grained sediments of supposedly Oligocene to Miocene age, which subsided along faults linked to the Inn fault. Three superimposed sequences, each displaying baselaps in contact with a subglacially formed unconformity and sigmoid foresets, show pleniglacial conditions followed by a glaciolacustrine environment. The uppermost of these three sequences lies on top of last glacial maximum till (LGM; Würmian Pleniglacial; MIS 2) and represents Termination I. The middle sequence is classified as Termination II following the Rissian Pleniglacial (MIS 6). The oldest glacial sequence cannot be constrained chronostratigraphically but might correlate with Termination V following the major glaciation of MIS 12. Limited glacial erosion during the LGM occurred only during the ice build-up phase. Further overdeepening was impeded due to topographic barrier and mutual blockades of glaciers within this highly dissected landscape. The occurrence and relative timing of the impediment was controlled by the onset of transfluences and thus by the altitude of coles. The higher amount of overdeepening during older glacial periods is explained by longer phases of free ice advance in the ice build up phase due to higher transfluences routes at that time. Thus, the preservation of older Pleistocene sequences within the basin may be the result of the lowering of watersheds from one glaciation to the next. Our model of an inverse relationship between glacial shaping of the surface and the subsurface may apply to similar Alpine landscapes as well.     

Approaches in research on flood risk perception and their importance in flood risk management: a review

Natural Hazards - The study of flood risk perception factors can be considered by using different paradigms. In an attempt to understand risk perception, two basic paradigms can be distinguished:...     

The link between social capital and disaster recovery: evidence from coastal communities in Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - The purpose of this research is to explore the role social capital played in disaster coping and the recovery process among the southwest coastal villages of Bangladesh....     

The De Long Islands: A missing link in unraveling the Paleozoic paleogeography of the Arctic

The vast Laptev and East Siberian shelves in the eastern Russian Arctic, largely covered by a shallow sea and buried beneath sea ice for 9 months of the year, remain one of the least studied parts of continental crust of the Earth and represent a big unknown when performing pre-Cenozoic reconstructions of the Arctic. The De Long Islands provide an important window into the geology of this area and are a key for understanding the Early Paleozoic history of the Amerasian Arctic. Four of them (Jeannette, Henrietta, Bennett and Zhokhov islands) were studied using structural data, petrographic and geochemical analyses and U–Pb zircon age dating to offer the following new constraints for the Early Paleozoic paleogeography of the Arctic realm. The basement beneath the De Long Islands is of Late Neoproterozoic to earliest Cambrian age, about 670–535 Ma. In the Early Paleozoic, the De Long Islands were located along the broad Timanian margin of Baltica, with a clastic sediment provenance from the Timanian, Grenville–Sveconorwegian, and Baltic Shield domains. The Cambro-Ordovician volcaniclastic successions on Jeannette and Henrietta islands formed part of a continental volcanic arc with a corresponding back-arc basin located to the south (in present co-ordinates). On the continent-ward side of the back-arc basin, shallow marine shelf clastic and carbonate rocks were deposited, which are exposed today on Bennett Island in the south-west of the archipelago (in modern coordinates). The De Long Islands together with other continental blocks, such as Severnaya Zemlya, Arctic Alaska–Chukotka, and the Alexander Terrane, formed the contiguous active continental margin of Baltica during the Early Paleozoic. Today however, these terranes are spread out over a distance of 5000 km across the Arctic and eastern Pacific margins due to the subsequent opening of a series of Late Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic oceanic basins.     

Resilience: a capacity and a myth: findings from an in-depth case study in disaster management research

Hurricane Andrew, which made landfall on August 24, 1992, was one of the most destructive hurricanes in American history, causing atypically high levels of psychological and physical health impairment among the resident population and especially among vulnerable groups. This article investigates whether maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew during pregnancy increased the risk of dystocia (or dysfunctional labor) and infant delivery by cesarean section, the standard medical response to abnormal labor progression. We analyze 297,996 birth events in Miami-Dade and Broward counties in Florida from 1992 to 1993 using propensity score methodology with stratification and nearest-neighbor matching algorithms. Results show that hurricane-exposed pregnant women were significantly more likely to experience stress-induced abnormal labor and cesarean delivery outcomes as compared to statistically matched comparison groups. The conclusion details the policy implications of our results, with particular attention to the importance of maternal prenatal care in the aftermath of disasters.     

The baryte-bearing beryl-phosphate pegmatite Plössberg—A missing link between pegmatitic and vein-type barium mineralization in NE Bavaria, Germany

Pegmatites and aplites enriched in P, Be, Nb, Ta and Li occur in the high-temperature metamorphic lithological units of the NE Bavarian Basement, SE Germany. They are accompanied by Ba mineralization, in vein-type deposits in the basement as well as in its foreland. Locally, Ba minerals are encountered in the late Variscan pegmatites and aplites too. The shallow discordant stock-like pegmatites (Hagendorf-type) are barren as to Ba, but in the tabular, concordant aplites and pegmatites Ba was concentrated (Plössberg-type). These concordant pegmatites and aplites are supposed to be the root zone of the intrusive pegmatites. In the rare case of low sulfur fugacity, Ba forms Ba–Zr–K–Sc phosphates/silicates in the pegmatites (transition of magmatic into the hydrothermal stages I/II). Under high sulfur fugacity, Ba is accommodated within the same stages in the structure of baryte. Barium is not accommodated in the lattice of phosphates during or in the immediate aftermaths of the emplacement of these Be–P–Nb–Ta pegmatites (stage III). This element shows up again in APS minerals during supergene alteration under acidic conditions (stage IV). Considering the host rocks of baryte mineralization, the Sr contents of baryte increased from the early Paleozoic to the Late Triassic. The Sr contents of baryte are a function of the depth below ground in the vein-type deposits and in the shear-zones bounding the tabular concordant pegmatites. Beryl is not only a marker mineral for the shear-zone-hosted pegmatites but can also be used as a tool for the geodynamic positioning of these pegmatites using its oxygen isotopes. A subdivision of the pegmatites into intrusive and shear-zone hosted may be achieved by its REE and minor elements.     

Pollution and paradigms: lessons from Icelandic volcanism for continental flood basalt studies

This paper is based on the premise that research into the environmental impact of continental flood basalt (CFB) volcanism has paid insufficient attention to the potential ecosystem damage that would result from the direct deposition of hundreds of megatons (Tg) of sulphur and other volatiles. The environmental impacts of the 1783 Laki Fissure eruption are reviewed in outline. It is shown that in a relatively brief period of volcanic activity, volatiles emitted by the eruption damaged and destroyed vegetation from the Arctic Ocean to the Mediterranean. Air pollution was so intense that human health was affected and the national death rate increased dramatically in both England and France.

It is proposed that the events of 1783 may be used as a paradigm for the environmental impacts of a CFB lava flow, and the emissions of 1783 are scaled up to illustrate this point. Thus, if a Laki style event were to erupt for a year it would approach the physical scale of a single episode of the Roza flow in the Columbia River CFB and potentially yield 576 Tg of sulphur gases which could have been oxidised into approximately 945 Tg of aerosol. This could generate a tropospheric aerosol mass of approximately 708 Tg H₂SO₄.

The ecosystem impact of the deposition of acids on this scale would be profound and, as with the actual Laki event, be continental in scale. All parts of the plant life cycle would be disrupted, including photosynthesis and fruiting. Inevitably, with the disruption of food webs animals would also be affected. Poorly buffered inland waters would be acidified, as would Boreal soils, reducing their biodiversity.

In our already polluted and interdependent world, any future event on this scale would have serious consequences for human health and trade.     

Review of interactions between phosphorus and arsenic in soils from four case studies

Arsenic is a non-essential element that poses risks in many environments, including soil, groundwater, and surface water. Insights into the environmental biogeochemistry of As can be gained by comparing As and P reaction processes. Arsenic and P are chemical analogues, and it is proposed that they have similar chemical behaviors in environmental systems. However some chemical properties of As and P are distinct, such as redox reactions, causing the biogeochemical behavior of the two elements to differ. In the environment, As occurs as either As(V) or As(III) oxyanions (e.g., AsO₄^3? or AsO₃^3?). In contrast, P occurs predominantly as oxidation state five plus; most commonly as the orthophosphate ion (PO₄^3?). In this paper, data from four published case studies are presented with a focus on P and As distribution and speciation in soil. The goal is show how analyzing P chemistry in soils can provide greater insights into As reaction processes in soils. The case studies discussed include: (1) soil developed from shale parent material, (2) mine-waste impacted wetland soils, (3) phosphate-amended contaminated soil, and (4) plants grown in biochar-amended, mine-contaminated soil. Data show that while P and As have competitive reactions in soils, in most natural systems they have distinct biogeochemical processes that create differing mobility and bioavailability. These processes include redox reactions and rhizosphere processes that affect As bioavailability. Results from these case studies are used as examples to illustrate how studying P and As together allows for enhanced interpretation of As biogeochemical processes in soils.