Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Correction to: A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

Natural Hazards - In the Abstract, the sentence “Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g.,...     

A visibility-based assessment of tsunami evacuation signs in Seaside,Oregon

Tsunami risk mitigation programs often include iconic evacuation signage to direct locals and visitors to safety during a tsunami event. This paper examines sign placement in Seaside, Oregon, from a visibility perspective. It leverages existing visibility analysis methodologies characterize the visibility of the community’s evacuation signage and reveals patterns in the viewable landscape. Additionally, we develop a topologically 3D approach to visibility analysis using raw LiDAR datasets. This applied work situates a discussion on existing patterns of visibility, how to improve existing signage placement, 2D and 3D representation of landscape, and the importance of visibility analysis. This work aims to stimulate discussion and development of hazard research that incorporates a visibility perspective.     

The near-miss of a tsunami and an emergency evacuation: the post-exposure effects on future emergency preparedness and evacuation intentions

Natural Hazards - In the early hours of January 23, 2018, residents of Port Alberni, British Columbia, Canada, awoke to the sounds of the community’s tsunami warning system, alerting them of...     

Correction to: Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside,Oregon, USA

Natural Hazards - Due to a procedural error in construction of Figs.&;nbsp;8 and 9, listed minimum speeds to beat the tsunami wave in areas of Seaside seaward of Neawanna Creek are too high. The...     

An assessment of educational tsunami evacuation map designs in Washington and Oregon

Educational tsunami evacuation map brochures in Washington and Oregon have been developed locally, resulting in significant differences between the types of tsunami hazard information they include. This paper identifies six tsunami hazard information types present in 38 brochures in Washington and Oregon: (1) tsunami hazard zone, (2) road network, (3) assembly areas, (4) evacuation guidance, (5) infrastructure, and (6) terrain. It compares and contrasts these information types in the maps and text of six of the brochures, including a proposed design standard in Oregon. Design differences of all 38 brochure maps are then organized using principles of cartographic abstraction, which describe mapmaker decisions about selection, generalization, and symbolization of information. We further use this framework to situate the information content of a new interactive Google Maps tool in Oregon. Our assessment identifies limitations of current tsunami hazard information that may be relevant to improving tsunami education. In theory, more advanced evacuation map tools can play an important role in reducing the limitations of tsunami hazard information relevant to the public. The new Google Maps tool addresses few of these limitations. Recognizing how map-making decisions define the underlying information content of evacuation maps can facilitate much needed future evaluations and developments in evacuation map design.     

Awareness of tsunami natural warning signs and intended evacuation behaviors in Java,Indonesia

Natural Hazards - The south coast of Java has a long history of deadly seismogenic tsunamis. The most recent tsunami events in 1994 and 2006 killed hundreds due to lack of awareness and...     

Potential of mosques to serve as evacuation shelters for foreign Muslims during disasters: a case study in Gunma,Japan

Natural Hazards - Foreigners tend to be vulnerable to disasters due to religious and cultural differences. In Japan, Muslim foreign residents, who are minorities, likely face difficulties in terms...     

Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

The constant threat from landslides in the northeastern part of Istria, Croatia, calls for the need to apply accurate and reliable methods in landslide hazard assessment in order to prevent landslide damage and to set an early warning system if necessary. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment enable optimal area management and regional urban planning. The study area is in the northeastern and central part of the Istrian Peninsula, well known as an area of frequent, small and shallow slope instability phenomena. Landslide susceptibility assessment in the area around the city of Buzet was performed using a deterministic landslide susceptibility model in the LS-RAPID software. LS-RAPID was developed to analyze stability at one single location, but the performed analysis has shown that LS-RAPID can be used as a powerful tool in landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment on regional scale. The objective of this paper is to establish the influence of the runout potential on the enlargement of the landslide-susceptible zones, due to expansion of the failure area around the initial failure zone. Performed analysis of rainfall return periods shows the frequency of landslide occurrence and provides the possible correlation with the time component of landslide hazard in the area.     

Regional differences in cognitive dissonance in evacuation behavior at the time of the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami

This paper constructs an evacuation decision-making model that takes cognitive dissonance into consideration. The purpose of this construction is to clarify the psychological mechanism for the evacuation behavior of residents during an emergency, based on Akerlof and Dickens (Akerlof and Dickens Am Econ Rev 72:307–319, 1982) "The economic consequences of cognitive dissonance". Specifically, we empirically explore people’s psychological mechanism (e.g., cognitive dissonance) for evacuation behavior when a tsunami disaster occurs. As a result, we show that the level of anxiety depends on the area where residents live and that the average anxiety of residents is mostly correlated with the level of damage of past disasters, and that it is affected also by the ages of residents. Since the level of anxiety largely affects an individual’s evacuation behavior, this result can indicate for what kinds of people intervention and assistance are required based on the level of anxiety. A high level of anxiety basically promotes evacuation. Since our results show that anxiety is increased by the experience of tsunamis, education having people virtually experience tsunamis may increase evacuation rates efficiently.

     

A GIS-based analysis of constraints on pedestrian tsunami evacuation routes: Cascais case study (Portugal)

Tsunami hazard in coastal areas susceptible to flooding, although reduced (in terms of probability of occurrence), may pose a high risk. Therefore, in these areas, a detailed evacuation planning of the affected population is required as a risk mitigation measure. The knowledge and enforcement of evacuation routes may reduce the population vulnerability, making it more resilient and reducing risk. This paper presents a GIS approach for modelling evacuation routes based on the optimal path search problem, of the graph theory, which is implemented on ArcCasper tool. The methodology proposed considers the elements involved in the evacuation process, the worst credible tsunami inundation scenario (hazard extent and travel time), the number of people that needs to be evacuated in different time scenarios, the safe areas or destination points of the evacuation routes, the roads network characteristics and finally the time available to evacuate. The knowledge of those elements allows predicting some possible outcomes of the evacuation, such as the arrival time of the evacuees to a shelter and the identification of congestion hot spots resulting from the application of a flocking model which simulates the path to be used by evacuees avoiding obstacles. The municipality of Cascais was used to test the methodology proposed in this study. Cascais is one of the largest urban centres located about 25 km west of Lisbon, Portugal, with a high density of infrastructure along the coastline whereby most of the population and economic activities are exposed to a tsunami. The results, presented in the form of maps, allow identifying the optimal evacuation routes as well as the unfeasible routes. This crucial information could be used to the evacuation optimization regarding the location of meeting points and vertical shelters as well as to improve the accessibility of the areas to be evacuated.     

Method of calculating tsunami travel times in the Andaman Sea region

A new model to calculate tsunami travel times in the Andaman Sea region has been developed. The model specifically provides more accurate travel time estimates for tsunamis propagating to Patong Beach on the west coast of Phuket, Thailand. More generally, the model provides better understanding of the influence of the accuracy and resolution of bathymetry data on the accuracy of travel time calculations. The dynamic model is based on solitary wave theory, and a lookup function is used to perform bilinear interpolation of bathymetry along the ray trajectory. The model was calibrated and verified using data from an echosounder record, tsunami photographs, satellite altimetry records, and eyewitness accounts of the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Time differences for 12 representative targets in the Andaman Sea and the Indian Ocean regions were calculated. The model demonstrated satisfactory time differences (<2 min/h), despite the use of low resolution bathymetry (ETOPO2v2). To improve accuracy, the dynamics of wave elevation and a velocity correction term must be considered, particularly for calculations in the nearshore region.     

Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake

Pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.     

Using solver to determine vertical groundwater velocities by temperature variations, Purdue University, Indiana, USA

Vertical groundwater velocities can be estimated based on directions of groundwater thermal gradients. Temperature-depth profiles were obtained from 12 monitoring wells at 3 different times of the year (Fall, Winter, and Spring) in West Lafayette, Indiana (USA) mainly on the Purdue University campus. Microsoft Excel Solver was used to match plots of groundwater temperature distribution in the wells with published type curves in order to find a dimensionless parameter β, from which vertical groundwater velocities were obtained. The vertical groundwater velocities found in the monitoring wells ranged from 0.92 to 4.53 cm/yr. Clay-rich aquitards presented greater vertical groundwater velocities than outwash aquifers. The highest groundwater velocities occurred in the Spring while the lowest were during the Winter. This method was found to be especially useful in glacially-derived materials with varying hydraulic conductivities for estimating vertical groundwater velocities in-situ.     

Diatom biostratigraphy of tsunami deposits: Examples from the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami

Distinctive diatom assemblages may be associated with tsunami sediments and may often contrast with the assemblages found within sediments underlying the tsunami deposit as well as those associated with the modern coastal environment. Sediments associated with the 1998 tsunami that destroyed much of the Sissano lagoon area in northern Papua New Guinea have been investigated. Surface sediments from three transects across the sediment spit near Warapu have been examined for diatom content and preservation. The preservation is variable, and the data show an, often chaotic, assemblage that can be attributed to the tsunami waves incorporating and depositing diatoms from distinctive habitat zones during their runup and subsequent backwash. The diatoms identified within the Warapu sediments indicate an origin from within the inter-tidal and offshore area rather than from the beach–sand spit complex. The sand deposits disclose a high percentage, in excess of 75%, of broken diatom valves, and a predominance of centric (circular) species due to preferential preservation. The study demonstrates that the application of diatom biostratigraphy to modern tsunami deposits can be used in conjunction with other stratigraphical lines of evidence to interpret the source and provenance of historical and palaeo-tsunami deposits.     

A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow

This study develops a method for estimating the number of casualties that may occur while people evacuate from an inundation zone when a tsunami has inundated an area. The method is based on a simple model of hydrodynamic forces as they affect the human body. The method uses a Tsunami casualty index (TCI) computed at each grid point of a numerical tsunami model to determine locations and times within the tsunami inundation zone where evacuation during the tsunami inundation is not possible and therefore where casualties are likely to occur. The locations and times can be combined with information about population density to compute the potential number of casualties. This information is useful in developing tsunami evacuation routes that avoid such locations. To illustrate the method, it is applied to the Seattle waterfront in Washington State, USA, that is under the threat of possible tsunami disasters due to Seattle Fault earthquakes. Preliminary results suggest that the tsunami casualties may occur within the Seattle waterfront for 15 min, during the time interval from 3 to 18 min after a large Seattle Fault tsunami is generated when the background tide level is mean high water.