Coastal subsidence in Oregon,USA, during the giant Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700

Quantitative estimates of land-level change during the giant AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake along the Oregon coast are inferred from relative sea-level changes reconstructed from fossil foraminiferal assemblages preserved within the stratigraphic record. A transfer function, based upon a regional training set of modern sediment samples from Oregon estuaries, is calibrated to fossil assemblages in sequences of samples across buried peat-mud and peat-sand contacts marking the AD 1700 earthquake. Reconstructions of sample elevations with sample-specific errors estimate the amount of coastal subsidence during the earthquake at six sites along 400 km of coast. The elevation estimates are supported by lithological, carbon isotope, and faunal tidal zonation data. Coseismic subsidence at Nehalem River, Nestucca River, Salmon River, Alsea Bay, Siuslaw River and South Slough varies between 0.18 m and 0.85 m with errors between 0.18 m and 0.32 m. These subsidence estimates are more precise, consistent, and generally lower than previous semi-quantitative estimates. Following earlier comparisons of semi-quantitative subsidence estimates with elastic dislocation models of megathrust rupture during great earthquakes, our lower estimates for central and northern Oregon are consistent with modeled rates of strain accumulation and amounts of slip on the subduction megathrust, and thus, with a magnitude of 9 for the AD 1700 earthquake.     

Correction to: Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside,Oregon, USA

Natural Hazards - Due to a procedural error in construction of Figs.&;nbsp;8 and 9, listed minimum speeds to beat the tsunami wave in areas of Seaside seaward of Neawanna Creek are too high. The...     

Recurrence intervals of major paleotsunamis as calibrated by historic tsunami deposits in three localities: Port Alberni, Cannon Beach, and Crescent City, along the Cascadia margin, Canada and USA

We review geologic records of both historic and prehistoric tsunami inundations at three widely separated localities that experienced significant damage from the 1964 Alaskan tsunami along the Cascadia margin. The three localities are Port Alberni, Cannon Beach, and Crescent City, representing, respectively, the north, central, and south portions of the study area (1,000 km in length). The geologic records include anomalous sand sheets from marine surges that are hosted in supratidal peaty mud deposits. Paleotsunami sand sheets that exceed the thickness, continuity and/or extent of the 1964 historic tsunami are counted as major paleotsunami inundations. Major paleotsunamis (6–7 in number) at each locality during the last 3,000 years demonstrate mean recurrence intervals of 450–540 years, and within-cluster intervals (three events each) of 270–460 years. It has been 313 years since the last major paleotsunami from a great Cascadia earthquake in AD 1700. We compare the dated sequences of major paleotsunami inundations to the nearest regional records of coastal coseismic subsidence in Willapa Bay in the central margin, Waatch/Neah Bay in the northern margin, and Coquille in the southern margin. Similar numbers of events from both types of records suggest that the major paleotsunamis are locally derived (near-field) from ruptures of the Cascadia margin megathrust fault zone, rather than from transoceanic tsunamis (far-field) originating at other subduction zones around the Pacific Rim. Given the catastrophic hazard of the near-field Cascadia margin tsunamis, we propose a basic rule for reminding the general public of the need for self-initiated evacuation following a great earthquake at the Cascadia margin.     

Geoarchaeology of the Nehalem spit: Redistribution of beeswax galleon wreck debris by Cascadia earthquake and tsunami (∼A.D. 1700), Oregon,USA

A coincidence of the Beeswax galleon shipwreck (ca. A.D. 1650–1700) and the last Cascadia earthquake tsunami and coastal subsidence at ∼A.D. 1700 redistributed and buried wreck artifacts on the Nehalem Bay spit, Oregon, USA. Ground‐penetrating radar profiles (∼7 km total distance), sand auger probes, trenches, cutbank exposures (29 in number), and surface cobble counts (49 sites) were collected from the Nehalem spit (∼5 km² area). The field data demonstrate (1) the latest prehistoric integrity of the spit, (2) tsunami spit overtopping, and (3) coseismic beach retreat since the A.D. 1700 great earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone. Wreck debris was (1) initially scattered along the spit ocean beaches, (2) washed over the spit by nearfield tsunami (6–8 m elevation), and (3) remobilized in beach strandlines by catastrophic beach retreat. Historic recovery of the spit (150 m beach progradation) and modern foredune accretion (>5 m depth) have buried both the retreat scarp strandlines and associated wreck artifacts. The recent onshore sand transport might re‐expose heavy ship remains in the offshore area if the wreck grounded in shallow water (<20 m water depth of closure). © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A visibility-based assessment of tsunami evacuation signs in Seaside,Oregon

Tsunami risk mitigation programs often include iconic evacuation signage to direct locals and visitors to safety during a tsunami event. This paper examines sign placement in Seaside, Oregon, from a visibility perspective. It leverages existing visibility analysis methodologies characterize the visibility of the community’s evacuation signage and reveals patterns in the viewable landscape. Additionally, we develop a topologically 3D approach to visibility analysis using raw LiDAR datasets. This applied work situates a discussion on existing patterns of visibility, how to improve existing signage placement, 2D and 3D representation of landscape, and the importance of visibility analysis. This work aims to stimulate discussion and development of hazard research that incorporates a visibility perspective.     

Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Postglacial vegetation, fire, and climate history of the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon, USA

The forests of the Siskiyou Mountains are among the most diverse in North America, yet the long-term relationship among climate, diversity, and natural disturbance is not well known. Pollen, plant macrofossils, and high-resolution charcoal data from Bolan Lake, Oregon, were analyzed to reconstruct a 17,000-yr-long environmental history of high-elevation forests in the region. In the late-glacial period, the presence of a subalpine parkland of Artemisia, Poaceae, Pinus, and Tsuga with infrequent fires suggests cool dry conditions. After 14,500 cal yr B.P., a closed forest of Abies, Pseudotsuga, Tsuga, and Alnus rubra with more frequent fires developed which indicates more mesic conditions than before. An open woodland of Pinus, Quercus, and Cupressaceae, with higher fire activity than before, characterized the early Holocene and implies warmer and drier conditions than at present. In the late Holocene, Abies and Picea were more prevalent in the forest, suggesting a return to cool wet conditions, although fire-episode frequency remained relatively high. The modern forest of Abies and Pseudotsuga and the present-day fire regime developed ca. 2100 cal yr B.P. and indicates that conditions had become slightly drier than before. Sub-millennial-scale fluctuations in vegetation and fire activity suggest climatic variations during the Younger Dryas interval and within the early Holocene period. The timing of vegetation changes in the Bolan Lake record is similar to that of other sites in the Pacific Northwest and Klamath region, and indicates that local vegetation communities were responding to regional-scale climate changes. The record implies that climate-driven millennial- to centennial-scale vegetation and fire change should be considered when explaining the high floristic diversity observed at present in the Siskiyou Mountains.     

Reconstructing the migration patterns of late Pleistocene mammals from northern Florida, USA

We used analyses of the strontium isotope (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) ratios of tooth enamel to reconstruct the migration patterns of fossil mammals collected along the Aucilla River in northern Florida. Specimens date to the late-glacial period and before the last glacial maximum (pre-LGM). Deer and tapir displayed low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios that were similar to the ratios of Florida environments, which suggest that these taxa did not migrate long distance outside of the Florida region. Mastodons, mammoths, and equids all displayed a wide range of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. Some individuals in each taxon displayed low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios that suggest they ranged locally, while other animals had high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios that suggest they migrated long distances (> 150 km) outside of the Florida region. Mastodons were the only taxa from this region that provided enough well-dated specimens to compare changes in migration patterns over time. Pre-LGM mastodons displayed significantly lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios than late-glacial mastodons, which suggests that late-glacial mastodons from Florida migrated longer distances than their earlier counterparts. This change in movement patterns reflects temporal changes in regional vegetation patterns.     

Shallow SH-wave seismic investigation of the Mt. Angel Fault, Northwest Oregon, USA

The Mt. Angel Fault is likely one of the most active faults near the Portland metropolitan area, and was probably associated with the 1993 Scotts Mills earthquake. SH-wave seismic techniques used to image the Mt. Angel Fault suggest that the fault offsets late Pleistocene gravel (22 to 34 ka) at several locations. Within the study area, displacement of the late Pleistocene gravel along the strike of the Mt. Angel Fault increases from no obvious displacement on the northwest to approximately 18 m on the southeast. This trend of increasing offset along the strike of the fault is paralleled by topographic and geomorphic trends. A reconnaissance geologic investigation at an anomalous bend in the Pudding River near the projected trace of the Mt. Angel Fault revealed potential tectonic deformation in sediments younger than the late Pleistocene gravel imaged by SH-wave data. The results of this study have contributed to the paleoseismic record of the Mt. Angel Fault, laid the groundwork for future geologic investigations along the Pudding River, and determined potential sites for future paleoseismic trenching investigations.     

A speleothem record of Younger Dryas cooling, Klamath Mountains, Oregon, USA

A well-dated δ¹⁸O record in a stalagmite from a cave in the Klamath Mountains, Oregon, with a sampling interval of 50 yr, indicates that the climate of this region cooled essentially synchronously with Younger Dryas climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. The δ¹⁸O record also indicates significant century-scale temperature variability during the early Holocene. The δ¹³C record suggests increasing biomass over the cave through the last deglaciation, with century-scale variability but with little detectable response of vegetation to Younger Dryas cooling.     

Hydraulic controls of grain-size distributions of bedload gravels in Oak Creek, Oregon, USA

Grain-size distributions of gravels transported as bedload in Oak Creek, Oregon, show systematic variations with changing flow discharges. At low discharges the gravel distributions are nearly symmetrical and Gaussian. As discharges increase, the distributions become more skewed and follow the ideal Rosin distribution. The patterns of variations are established by goodness-of-fit comparisons between the measured and theoretical distributions, and by Q-mode factor analysis. Two end members are obtained in the factor analysis, having (respectively) almost perfect Gaussian and Rosin distributions, and the percentages of the two end members within individual samples vary systematically with discharge. Transformation from Gaussian to Rosin distribution with increasing discharge may be explained by processes of selective entrainment of grains from a bed of mixed sizes. Samples of bed material in Oak Creek follow the Rosin distribution. At high discharges, the transported bedload approaches the grain sizes of that bed-material source and mimics its Rosin distribution. Random-selection processes must be more important to grain entrainment at lower discharges, so that the resulting Gaussian distributions of transported bedload reflect similar distributions of bed stresses exerted by the stream flow. The results from Oak Creek demonstrate that the competence of the flow is reflected in the entire distribution of transported gravel sizes. A sequence of layers of fluvial gravels, modern or ancient, might show systematic variations between coarse Rosin and finer-grained Gaussian distributions, and these could be used to infer frequencies of various discharges and to establish a relationship to the source sediment. With further study, analyses of changing bedload grain-size distributions and their transport rates will lead to a better understanding of downstream variations in grain sizes of bed sediments and how their distributions reflect the progressive development of textural maturity.     

Sedimentation in epithermal veins of the Bohemia mining district,Oregon, USA: Interpretations and significance

Open spaces in epithermal veins of the Bohemia mining district, Oregon, USA, filled with sediments during hydrothermal activity. These sediments consist mainly of chalcedony, rock fragments, and vein quartz fragments. In addition, hematite is deposited during stage three of the vein development. Observed sedimentary features include draping laminae, erosion surfaces, slumping, and graded bedding. Such sediments can be used for reconstruction of the original orientation of vein systems, because the sediment laminae are initially deposited horizontally. Vein sediments record variations in fluid flow due to self-sealing, fracturing, and cessation of hydrothermal activity. Investigation of vein sediments therefore provides an additional tool to unravel the geologic history of epithermal systems. The chalcedonic vein sediments record large temperature drops and highly silica supersaturated waters, probably due to fracturing and pressure release. Hematitic vein sediments indicate sulfide deficient hydrothermal fluids.     

Sensitivity analysis of hydrological parameters in modeling flow and transport in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

The unsaturated fractured volcanic deposits at Yucca Mountain in Nevada, USA, have been intensively investigated as a possible repository site for storing high-level radioactive waste. Field studies at the site have revealed that there exist large variabilities in hydrological parameters over the spatial domain of the mountain. Systematic analyses of hydrological parameters using a site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) flow model have been undertaken. The main objective of the sensitivity analyses was to evaluate the effects of uncertainties in hydrologic parameters on modeled UZ flow and contaminant transport results. Sensitivity analyses were carried out relative to fracture and matrix permeability and capillary strength (van Genuchten α) through variation of these parameter values by one standard deviation from the base-case values. The parameter variation resulted in eight parameter sets. Modeling results for the eight UZ flow sensitivity cases have been compared with field observed data and simulation results from the base-case model. The effects of parameter uncertainties on the flow fields were evaluated through comparison of results for flow and transport. In general, this study shows that uncertainties in matrix parameters cause larger uncertainty in simulated moisture flux than corresponding uncertainties in fracture properties for unsaturated flow through heterogeneous fractured rock.     

Nutrient biogeochemistry in an upwelling-influenced estuary of the Pacific northwest (Tillamook Bay,Oregon, USA)

Tillamook Bay, Oregon, is a drowned river estuary that receives freshwater input from 5 rivers and exchanges ocean water through a single channel. Similar to other western United States estuaries, the bay exhibits a strong seasonal change in river discharge in which there is a pronounced winter maximum and summer minimum in precipitation and runoff. The behavior of major inorganic nutrients (phosphorus, nitrogen, and silica) within the watershed is examined over seasonal cycles and under a range of river discharge conditions for October 1997–December 1999. Monthly and seasonal sampling stations include transects extending from the mouth of each river to the mouth of the estuary as well as 6–10 sites upstream along each of the 5 major rivers. Few studies have examined nutrient cycling in Pacific Northwest estuaries. This study evaluates the distributions of inorganic nutrients to understand the net processes occurring within this estuary. Based upon this approach, we hypothesize that nutrient behavior in the Tillamook Bay estuary can be explained by two dominant factors: freshwater flushing time and biological uptake and regeneration. Superimposed on these two processes is seasonal variability in nutrient concentrations of coastal waters via upwelling. Freshwater flushing time determines the amount of time for the uptake of nutrients by phytoplankton, for exchange with suspended particles, and for interaction with the sediments. Seasonal coastal upwelling controls the timing and extent of oceanic delivery of nutrients to the estuary. We suggest that benthic regeneration of nutrients is also an important process within the estuary occurring seasonally according to the flushing characteristics of the estuary. Silicic acid, nitrate, and NH₄ ⁺ supply to the bay appears to be dominated by riverine input. PO₄ ⁻³ supply is dominated by river input during periods of high river flow (winter months) with oceanic input via upwelling and tidal exchange important during other times (spring, summer, and fall months). Departures from conservative mixing indicate that internal estuarine sources of dissolved inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen are also significant over an annual cycle.     

Identification of a hydrodynamic threshold in karst rocks from the Biscayne Aquifer, south Florida, USA

A hydrodynamic threshold between Darcian and non-Darcian flow conditions was found to occur in cubes of Key Largo Limestone from Florida, USA (one cube measuring 0.2 m on each side, the other 0.3 m) at an effective porosity of 33% and a hydraulic conductivity of 10 m/day. Below these values, flow was laminar and could be described as Darcian. Above these values, hydraulic conductivity increased greatly and flow was non-laminar. Reynolds numbers (Re) for these experiments ranged from <0.1 to 7. Non-laminar flow conditions observed in the hydraulic conductivity tests were observed at Re close to 1. Hydraulic conductivity was measured on all three axes in a permeameter designed specifically for samples of these sizes. Positive identification of vertical and horizontal axes as well as 100% recovery for each sample was achieved. Total porosity was determined by a drying and weighing method, while effective porosity was determined by a submersion method. Bulk density, total porosity and effective porosity of the Key Largo Limestone cubes averaged 1.5 g/cm³, 40 and 30%, respectively. Two regions of anisotropy were observed, one close to the ground surface, where vertical flow dominated, and the other associated with a dense-laminar layer, below which horizontal flow dominated.     

Stock-Specific Movement and Distribution of Juvenile Chinook Salmon, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>, in Sandy Beach Surf Zones of Oregon and Washington,USA

Sandy beach surf zones serve as alternative nursery habitats for juvenile Chinook salmon (0 age) during their early marine residency, a period considered critical due to high and variable mortality rates. Despite the importance of early marine residence, the extent of juvenile salmon surf zone use and movement along sandy beaches is not well understood. Juvenile Chinook salmon distribution and movement were studied in shallow surf zone habitats by sampling from 2006 to 2010 with a beach seine 11 beaches adjacent and distant to four estuary mouths in Oregon and Washington, USA. The estuary of origin of each juvenile was determined using genetic stock identification methods and coded wire tags. Surf zones sampled were within littoral cells, which are stretches of the coastline bordered by rocky headlands, and included estuaries with and without Chinook salmon populations. Juvenile salmonids were only collected at littoral cells with Chinook-inhabited watersheds. Most juveniles (95 %) were present at sandy beaches adjacent (<500 m from estuary mouth) to their estuary of origin. Few Chinook salmon (5 %) were collected at littoral cells that contained non-natal estuaries. These results indicate that juvenile Chinook salmon inhabiting surf zones mostly use beaches adjacent to their estuaries of origin, but some juveniles may reside in beaches distant from their point of ocean entry.     

Chronology of latest Pleistocene lake‐level fluctuations in the pluvial Lake Chewaucan basin,Oregon, USA

New accelerator mass spectrometer radiocarbon ages from gastropods in shore deposits within the pluvial Lake Chewaucan basin, combined with stratigraphical and geomorphological evidence, identify an abrupt rise and fall of lake level at ca. 12 ¹⁴C ka. The lake‐level high is coeval with lake‐level lows in the well‐dated records of palaeolakes Bonneville and Lahontan, and with a period of relatively wet conditions in the more southerly Owens Lake basin. This spatial pattern of pluvial lake levels in the western USA at 12 ¹⁴C ka indicates a variable synoptic response to climate forcing at this time. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of diel chemical and isotopic techniques to investigate biogeochemical cycles in the upper Klamath River,Oregon, USA

The upper Klamath River experiences a cyanobacterial algal bloom and poor water quality during the summer. Diel chemical and isotopic techniques have been employed in order to investigate the rates of biogeochemical processes.Four diel measurements of field parameters (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen concentrations, and alkalinity) and stable isotope compositions (dissolved oxygen–δ¹⁸O and dissolved inorganic carbon–δ¹³C) have been performed between June 2007 and August 2008. Significant diel variations of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, and DO–δ¹⁸O were observed, due to varying rates of primary productivity vs. respiration vs. gas exchange with air. Diel cycles are generally similar to those previously observed in river systems, although there are also differences compared to previous studies. In large part, these different diel signatures are the result of the low turbulence of the upper Klamath River. Observed changes in the diel signatures vs. sampling date reflect the evolution of the status of the algal bloom over the course of the summer.Results indicate the potential utility of applying diel chemical and stable isotope techniques to investigate the rates of biogeochemical cycles in slow-moving rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, but also illustrate the increased complexity of stable isotope dynamics in these low-turbulence systems compared to well-mixed aquatic systems.     

Alongshore variation in the rip current hazard at Pensacola Beach, Florida

Many drowning and near drownings at Pensacola Beach, Florida are attributed to rip currents, the strong seaward-flowing currents that extend from the shoreline to the line of breakers and sometimes beyond. While surf forecasts assume that the rip hazard is uniform alongshore and that the (erosion) rips are ephemeral features, evidence is presented to suggest that the rip hazard at Pensacola Beach is not uniform alongshore. Rather the rip current “hotspots” develop as a consequence of an alongshore variation in the surf similarity parameter and nearshore state on the order of ~1,450 m. The variation is forced by transverse ridges on the inner shelf that force wave refraction and focusing at the ridge crests. This creates a more dissipative, rhythmic bar and beach morphology at the ridges and rougher surf. Between ridges, where wave heights and periods are smaller and the outermost bar is forced closer to the shoreline, the nearshore is in a (more reflective) bar and rip state during red flag conditions. Drownings between 2000 and 2009 are shown to be clustered between transverse ridges and in the years following a hurricane or tropical storm (2000–2003 and 2005–2008) when the bar and rip morphology first develops as the shore face recovers. This continues until the innermost bar attaches to the beach face unless the bar system is reset by another tropical storm or hurricane. It is argued that the rip hazard is dependent on the alongshore covariation of the environmental forcing with the individual and group behavior in both time and space, even on what appears to be a relatively uniform beach environment.