Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.     

The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation: comparison of a zoning and a smoothing approach

Seismic hazard estimations are compared using two approaches based on two different seismicity models: one which models earthquake recurrence by applying the truncated Gutenberg-Richter law and a second one which smoothes the epicentre location of past events according to the fractal distribution of earthquakes in space ( Woo 1996 ). The first method requires the definition of homogeneous source zones and the determination of maximum possible magnitudes whereas the second method requires the definition of a smoothing function. Our results show that the two approaches lead to similar hazard estimates in low seismicity regions. In regions of increased seismic activity, on the other hand, the smoothing approach yields systematically lower estimates than the zoning method. This epicentre-smoothing approach can thus be considered as a lower bound estimator for seismic hazard and can help in decision making in moderate seismicity regions where source zone definition and estimation of maximum possible magnitudes can lead to a wide variety of estimates due to lack of knowledge. The two approaches lead, however, to very different earthquake scenarios. Disaggregation studies at a representative number of sites show that if the distributions of contributions according to source–site distance are comparable between the two approaches, the distributions of contributions according to magnitude differ, reflecting the very different seismicity models used. The epicentre-smoothing method leads to scenarios with predominantly intermediate magnitudes events (5 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) while the zoning method leads to scenarios with magnitudes that increase with the return period from the minimum to the maximum magnitudes considered. These trends demonstrate that the seismicity model used plays a fundamental role in the determination of the controlling scenarios and ways to discriminate between the most appropriate models remains an important issue.     

A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes

The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.     

An improved region–time–length algorithm applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake

By means of the region–time–length (RTL) algorithm, which is widely used for investigating the precursory seismicity changes in China, Italy, Japan, Russia and Turkey, we examine the precursory seismic activity occurred prior to the 1999, M _w = 7.6, Chi-Chi earthquake around its epicentre. Based on our calculation of the RTL values, the epicentral area has been found to strongly exhibit the signature of anomalous activity, associated with the seismic quiescence and activation, before the main shock. Also proposed in this study is a helpful method for determining two important parameters used in the RTL analysis, the characteristic time and distance. Such method will largely reduce the ambiguity in the original RTL algorithm.     

A geomagnetic precursor to the 1979 Carlisle earthquake

Summary. A study of horizontal field transfer functions, in the period range 10–10⁴s, has been made for the 2 yr period preceding the 1979 Carlisle earthquake (magnitude 5). The study using two sites, local to and remote from the earthquake epicentre, reveals that a precursory effect is observed at short periods (<10²s) some 35 km from the main epicentre. The results indicate a change from two-dimensional geolectric anisotropy to a more conductive three-dimensional geoelectric configuration during the period immediately preceding the earthquake.     

Locating regional seismic events with global optimization based on interval arithmetic

More than 1000 seismic events in northern Europe at distances of up to 400  km from the detecting network are located using an optimization method in which the global minimum of the traveltime function residuals is searched for using an Interval Arithmetic (IA) method. Epicentres are determined using P waves detected by the Finnish national seismic network: up to 15 stations were used in the analysis. The IA results coincide with locations provided by the University of Helsinki bulletins with a median location bias of 7.6  km.
  A second data set of 59 explosions in the Siilinjärvi mine in central Finland was examined in detail, because the locations of the explosions were known exactly. In this case, the median difference of IA locations was 3.8  km from the average location of mine explosions, while all 59 events were located within 9  km of the 'true' epicentres. The corresponding median error of the University of Helsinki locations was smaller (3.2  km), but some Helsinki locations were well over 10  km from the mine. The convergence towards the global optimum using interval arithmetic was fast when compared with the conventional least-squares approaches for epicentre determinations.     

Seismic risk in southern Europe through to India examined using Gumbel's third distribution of extreme values

Summary. A technique is described for the analysis of seismicity using Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme values. Seismicity of southern Europe through to India, nominally for the period 1900–74, is subdivided in a cellular manner, without recourse to tectonic discrimination between regions, and a covariance analysis on the three parameters of Gumbel's distribution is performed for each cell of seismicity. The results indicate that the upper bound to the magnitude of earthquake occurrence is often uncertain although it is discernible, while curvature of the earthquake occurrence distributions is usually established. Uncertainties in the forecasts of largest earthquakes, with a return period of 75 yr, are distinctly improved by taking into account the large and negative covariance which is measured between the curvature and upper bound to earthquake magnitude for the observed seismicity. These results are then used to map seismic risk for southern Europe through to India.     

Anisotropy in multi-offset deep-crustal seismic experiments

Modelling of deep-seismic wide-angle data commonly assumes that the Earth is heterogeneous and isotropic. It is important to know the magnitudes of errors that may be introduced by isotropic-based wide-angle models when the Earth is anisotropic. It is equally important to find ways of detecting anisotropy and determining its properties.
  This paper explores the errors introduced by interpreting anisotropic seismic data with isotropic models. Errors in P -wave reflector depths are dependent on the magnitude of the velocity anisotropy and the direction of the fast axis. The interpreted, isotropic, model velocity function is found to correspond closely to the horizontal velocity of the anisotropic medium. An additional observed parameter is the time mismatch , which we define to be the difference between the vertical two-way traveltime to a reflector and the time-converted wide-angle position of the reflector. The magnitude of the time mismatch is typically <1.0  s (when the whole crust is anisotropic) and is found to be closely related to the magnitude and sign of the anisotropic anellipticity. The relationships are extendible to more complicated models, including those with vertical velocity gradients, crustal zonation, and lower symmetry orders.
  A time mismatch may be symptomatic of the presence of anisotropy. We illustrate the observation of a time mismatch for a real multi-offset seismic data set collected north of Scotland and discuss the implications for crustal anisotropy in that region.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

Anomalous variations of the geomagnetic field in East Fergana — magnetic precursor of the May earthquake with M= 7.0 (1978 November 2)

Summary. A secular variation anomaly has been discovered at the north-east part of the Fergana vdey by repeated measurements every year or less. The change of total field Δ F at the 'magnetic epicentre' was 9 nT in 1977 and 16 nT in 1978 relative to the level of 1973. In 1977 an anomalous region was recognized, where according to the data from 25 observation points Δ F increased in the northern part up to 5.2 nT, and decreased by 4.7nTin the southern part according to a further 22 points. Permanent observations were begun at the epicentre in 1978 October. We normally observed variations of Δ F differences with magnitude ± 2–3 nT, which were not correlated with worldwide magnetic activity. Anomalous variations appeared on October 26 and rose to a maximum value of + 23 nT on October 30. The decrease of this anomalous field began on October 31. This made it possible to predict a potential earthquake. The Alay earthquake with M = 7.0 occurred on November 2 six hours after the prediction was issued; Δ F then returned to the initial level. Thus, using the geomagnetic field variations in the Fergana region, geophysicists were able to predict the moment of a strong earthquake.     

Palaeomagnetic study of Palaeoproterozoic granitoids from the Voronezh Massif, Russia

A palaeomagnetic investigation has been carried out of rocks from the eastern part of the Voronezh Massif, which constitutes, together with the Ukrainian Shield, the Sarmatian segment in the southern part of the East European Craton. The samples were collected in a quarry close to the town of Pavlovsk (50.4°N, 40.1°E), where a syenitic-granitic body intrudes Archaean units. U–Pb (zircon) dating has yielded an age of 2080  Ma for the intrusion.
  Two characteristic magnetic components, A and B, were isolated by thermal and alternating-field demagnetization. Component A was obtained from granites and quartz syenites (11 samples) and has a mean direction of D = 229°, I = 28°, and a pole position at 12°N, 172°E. This pole is close to a contemporary mean pole (9°N, 187°E) for the Ukrainian Shield, which implies that the Voronezh Massif and the Shield constituted a single entity at 2.06  Ga. These poles differ from contemporaneous poles of the Fennoscandian Shield, indicating that the relative positions of the two shields were different from their present configuration about 2100  Myr ago.
  A component B, isolated only in quartz monzonites (five samples), has a mean direction D = 144°, I = 49°, and a pole position at 4°N, 251°E, which is close to late Sveconorwegian (approximately 900  Ma) poles for Baltica. This suggests that the East European Craton was consolidated some time between 2080 and 900  Ma. Comparison with other palaeomagnetic data permit us to narrow this time span to 1770–1340  Ma.     

Source process and tectonic implications of the great 1975 North Atlantic earthquake

Summary. The Atlantic segment of the Africa–Europe plate boundary has usually been interpreted as a transform boundary on the basis of the bathymetric expression of the Gloria fault and dextral strike-slip first-motion mechanisms aligned along the Azores–Gibraltar line of seismicity. The 1975 May 26 earthquake ( M _s=7.9) was assumed to fit into this framework because it occurred in the general area of this line and has a similar first-motion focal mechanism (strike=288°, dip=72°, slip angle=184°). However, several anomalies cast doubt on this picture: the event is abnormally large for an oceanic transform event; a sizeable tsunami was excited; the aftershock area is unusually small for such a large event; and most significantly, the epicentre is 200 km south of the presumed plate boundary. The Rayleigh wave radiation pattern indicates a change in focal mechanism to one with a significant dip-slip component. The short duration of the source time history (20 s, as deconvolved from long-period P -waves), the lack of directivity in the Rayleigh waves, and the small one-day aftershock area suggest a fault length less than 80 km. One nodal plane of the earthquake is approximately aligned with the trace of an ancient fracture zone.
We have compared the Pasadena 1-90 record of the 1975 earthquake to that of the 1941 North Atlantic strike-slip earthquake (200 km to the NNW) and confirmed the large size of the 1941 event ( M =8.2). The non-colinear relationship of the 1975 and 1941 events suggests that there is no well-defined plate boundary between the Azores and Gibraltar. This interpretation is supported by the intraplate nature of both the 1975 event and the large 1969 thrust event 650 km to the east. This study also implies that the largest oceanic strike-slip earthquakes occur in old lithosphere in a transitional tectonic regime.     

Statistical analysis of seismicity in a wide region around the 1998 Mw 8.1 Balleny Islands earthquake in the Antarctic Plate

A large earthquake (Mw 8.1) that occurred off the North Coast of the Antarctic continent near the Balleny Islands on 25 March 1998 was the largest intra-plate earthquake ever recorded in the Antarctic Plate. The earthquake hypocenter catalog for this area shows a marked change in seismicity following the main shock in a large area around the Balleny aftershock region. However, the earthquake catalog includes many aftershocks and is affected by a variable detection rate. To overcome these limitations, we applied statistical models and methods, including Gutenberg–Richter’s magnitude frequency distribution, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model, and the space–time ETAS model, thereby enabling calculation of the change in detection rate. The results show a change in the spatial pattern of background seismicity over a large region after the 1998 event.     

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility investigations of the St Malo dyke swarm (Brittany, France): emplacement mechanism of doleritic intrusions

A high-quality aeromagnetic survey of northern Brittany (line spacing 250  m; flight elevation 150  m) has been used to delineate the Lower Carboniferous St Malo dyke swarm in detail. The dyke swarm fans at its northern and southern ends, and is affected by N60° sinistral transcurrent faults. After restoration of these offsets, the full structure trends in a N–S direction. Small dykes are not imaged, and only one-third of the swarm is evidenced by magnetism. Gravity and magnetic modelling shows that the swarm overlies a single N–S elongated magma chamber.
  The distribution of K _max inclinations of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) suggests that the dykes display a fanning magma flow in section. Computed K _max inclinations are usually shallower than the measured geological dips, probably because the flow becomes more disturbed as the dyke becomes shallower. We observe that the mean susceptibility values increase when the magma flow is steeper than about 70°.
  A detailed cross-section of St Briac dyke, which is part of the St Malo dyke swarm, reveals that the main carrier of magnetization is magnetite in the centre of the dyke and magnetite + maghaemite on its rims. The emplacement of the St Malo dyke swarm could have been contemporaneous with the N60° shearing which displaced the dyke swarm by about 20  km. The dyke swarm is cut at its southern end by an E–W-orientated fault which probably acted during Late Carboniferous times.     

Coseismic well-level changes due to the 1992 Roermond earthquake compared to static deformation of half-space solutions

The M _w 5.4 Roermond earthquake of 1992 April 13 was one of the strongest events during the last 500 years in Central Europe. For the period March–May 1992, we collected records of 194 continuously operating well-level sensors, mostly located within 120  km of the epicentre. Nearly all wells penetrate unconfined or poorly confined Quaternary deposits with high hydraulic conductivities. 81 out of 194 raw data sets show a significant dynamic or step-like response of centimetre amplitude to the passage of seismic waves. Precursory anomalies are not obvious in these records. Coseismic well-level fluctuations could reflect a redistribution of stress and pore pressure in the brittle crust. Systematic analyses of such fluctuations may improve our knowledge of the role of pore fluids in crustal rheology and earthquake mechanics. The rather high number of individual observational records for a single event allows a regional correlation of the signs and amplitudes of the coseismic steps to changes in volume strain caused by the earthquake. The coseismic strain field at the surface was calculated for a homogeneous and a layered half-space. The results show reasonable agreement in the sign of the well-level steps but the amplitudes predicted from the wells' volumetric strain responses are much smaller than those that were recorded. Clearly, the coseismic well-level steps cannot be explained by volume strain changes, as derived from linear elastic models.     

Applying the relative hypocentre location approach: where was the 1980 November 23 Irpinia earthquake?

The purpose of this work is to evaluate under what conditions it is feasible and with what accuracy it is possible to locate the nucleation point of a large earthquake, given the availability of aftershocks located with high precision by the deployment of a local network. We experiment with several approaches and apply them lo the location of the epicentre of the 1980 November 23 Irpinia earthquake ( M ^w= 6.9).
First we use local P ^g phases selected to optimize the azimuthal coverage, obtaining a well-constrained location with a small statistical error, which typically underestimates the true hypocentre uncertainty.
We then exploit the relative location technique, obtaining stable, almost coincident solutions under three conditions: (1) using multiple independent master events to derive an average epicentre; (2) fitting simultaneously the larger data set for all available master events, using a forward approach; (3) conducting an a priori evaluation of the statistics of station and master events to separate model uncertainties and improve the statistical accuracy of the relative locations. Moreover, only by introducing station statistics can we achieve the desired accuracy of ≅ 1 km in constraining the rupture nucleation point of this large earthquake, and we show that the application of the relative location technique to uncleaned, unweighted data for a single master event provides only a crude epicentre with a confidence ellipse deceivingly smaller than the true hypocentre uncertainty.
The revised epicentre for the 1980 November 23 Irpinia earthquake (48.803 °N-15.302°E) validates the class of multidisciplinary reconstructions of the source process such as the model of Valensise et al. (1989), based on the hypocentre of Westaway & Jackson (1987), and is shifted by almost 13 km to the NW of the epicentre recently proposed by Westaway (1992).     

Subsurface mass redistributions at Mount Etna (Italy) during the 1995–1996 explosive activity detected by microgravity studies

Gravity changes are presented from a series of field microgravity surveys conducted at Mt Etna between August 1994 and November 1996, a period including the 1995–1996 explosive summit activity. Data were collected along a microgravity network of 69 stations at a monthly to annual sampling rate, depending on each subarray of the network.
  Results show that seasonal changes in water level within the volcano may induce gravity changes of up to 20  μgal on Etna's southern slope, and indicate that significant magma movement occurred within and below Etna's edifice between 1994 and 1996. In particular, between September 1994 and October 1995, a mass increase of 2 × 10¹⁰  kg occurred 2000  m beneath the summit craters. Between October 1995 and July 1996 this mass was lost, while another 2 × 10¹⁰  kg was injected at about 1000  m  a.s.l. into the 1989 fracture system. From the gravity data alone, it is not possible to distinguish whether the first shallow intrusion (1994–1995) was then injected laterally into the 1989 fracture, or summit activity was fed by the first shallow intrusion, while new magma entered the 1989 fracture system.
  While magma was being redistributed within the volcanic edifice, measurements along an E–W-trending profile on the southern slope of the volcano detected some 1.5 × 10¹¹  kg of magma accumulating 2–3  km below sea level between October 1995 and November 1996.     

Earthquake nests

Summary. Making use of extensive observations of micro-earthquakes available in the Tokyo region, Usami & Watanabe constructed a simple but effective method of exhibiting those regions where small earthquakes have clustered during a 4.5 yr period. Such clusters are defined by contour surfaces, and for convenience are termed earthquake nests .
If we accept the assumption that the magnitude of an earthquake is directly related to the volume previously undergoing intensified strain, and if we regard the nests as measures of such volumes, we can make rough estimates of the magnitudes of potential earthquakes in different parts of the Tokyo region. This method of assigning seismicity can be one way of calculating local risk. Repeated investigations can also detect changes in the tress field.     

A detailed analysis of the February 1996 aftershock sequence in the eastern Pyrenees, France

Following the 1996 February 18 M _L = 5.2 earthquake in the Agly massif in the eastern French Pyrenees, we installed a temporary network of seismometers around the epicentre. In this paper, we analyse 336 well-located aftershocks recorded from February 19 to February 23 by 18 temporary stations and two permanent stations located less than 35  km from the epicentre. Most aftershocks have been located with an accuracy better than 1.5  km in both horizontal and vertical positions. Their spatial distribution suggests the reactivation of a known fault system. We determined 39 fault-plane solutions using P -wave first motions. Despite their diversity, the focal mechanisms yield an E–W subhorizontal T-axis. We also determined fault-plane solutions and principal stress axes using the method developed by Rivera & Cisternas (1990 ) for the 15 best-recorded events. We obtain a pure-shear-rupture tectonic regime under N–S subhorizontal compression and E–W subhorizontal extension. These principal stress axes, which explain the focal mechanisms for at least 75 per cent of the 39 aftershocks, are different from the axes deduced from the main shock. The post-earthquake stress field caused by the main-shock rupture, modelled as sinistral strike slip on three vertical fault segments, is computed for various orientations and magnitudes of the regional stress field, assumed to be horizontal. The aftershock distribution is best explained for a compressive stress field oriented N30°E. Most aftershocks concentrate where the Coulomb failure stress change increases by more than 0.2  MPa. The diversity of aftershock focal mechanisms, poorly explained by this model, may reflect the great diversity in the orientations of pre-existing fractures in the Agly massif.     

Estimating maximum magnitude earthquakes in Iraq using extreme value statistics

Summary. Extreme value theory is used to estimate maximum magnitude earthquakes in Iraq (29–38°N, 39–48°E). The seismicity file for the period 1905–1982 is used to determine the recurrence relationship as well as the parameters of Gumbel types I and III asymptotic distributions.
The statistical parameters are estimated by both least squares and maximum likelihood techniques. Results show that although the least squares upper magnitude is closer in value to actual earthquake magnitude, the maximum likelihood approximation to the third distribution appears to show a better overall fit to the data sample. This result is reflected in the calculated probability of occurrence of earthquake risk over various design periods.