Periodic counts for estimating the size of the spawning population of alewives,Alosa pseudoharengus (Wilson)

The number of migrating alewives in the Parker River, Massachusetts, can be counted visually by standing at the upper end of each of the 6 fish ladders in the system. Estimating the entire run of up to a month’s duration by this procedure is not economically feasible, but we suggest a subsampling procedure that can provide sufficient accuracy and be economical. The reliability of periodic sample counts when used to estimate population numbers of anadromous alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) was indicated by the low variance of paired counts, small random errors of individual counts, and by the low variability between counts on days of large runs in the Parker River. Analyses of computer-simulated runs using actual data suggested that short counts taken frequently are superior to longer counts taken less often. Both field and computer-simulated data suggested that ten-minute counts taken hourly will estimate the true population of alewife runs within 10% error at the .05 level of probability.     

Modelling of malaria incidence in Akure,Nigeria: negative binomial approach

The connections between malaria incidence and climate variability have been studied in recent time using some mathematical and statistical models. Many of the statistical models in literature focused on time series approach based on Box–Jenkins methodology. However, fitting time series model based on the Box–Jenkins methodology may be challenging. Most malaria incidence data are count and are over-dispersed. In this study, negative binomial models were formulated for fitting malaria incidence in Akure—one of the epidemic cities in Nigeria. In particular, negative binomial models were formulated for each of the number of outpatient individuals, number of inpatient individuals and mortality count as a function of some climate variables. It was found that an increase in minimum temperature and relative humidity at lag 1 significantly increased the chance of malaria transmission and thereby leads to an increase in the number of inpatient and outpatient individuals, as well as the total number of malaria cases. The minimum temperature, rainfall amount and relative humidity of the study area have a significant impact on the increase of number of inpatient and outpatient individuals while mortality count depends on the total number of reported malaria cases. The findings from this study is to offer in-depth understanding on climate-malaria incidence linkages in Akure, Nigeria.

     

Holocene brown bear (Ursus arctos L.) from Norwegian caves

Norwegian caves contain stratigraphical information regarding the historical faunal composition valuable in the assessment of postglacial colonization and phylogeographical structure. In some of these limestone caves, brown bear ( Ursus arctos L.) remains have been excavated and radiometrically dated. We present osteology (95 traits defined) from 29 brown bears found within 22 Norwegian caves above 658N. Our data span the time interval 6210–420 ¹⁴C yr BP. The sex of individuals was based on dimorphic canines, while age was determined by cementum analysis and body size estimated from regressions between morphological traits compared to a contemporary reference collection. Five females and 14 males were recognized, while the remaining bears could not be sexed because of their small size, low age or lack of canines. The ages of 26 bears (tooth cementum age and estimates) ranged from juveniles (<0.5 year) to adults (23 years), the majority being old animals. Both sexes have used these caves for over-wintering lairs, as seen in several caves, where denning is also suggested based on the observations of adult females and cubs. There were no signs of predator or human transported bear remains, suggesting natural mortality. The age of the bears suggests that young or old bears may have died from insufficient nutrient storage, environmental harshness, or may have drowned in spring or autumnal flooding. We conclude that Norwegian brown bears have used these caves sporadically for thousands of years, which suggests that caves are not a preferred site for the brown bear during hibernation or denning.     

Geometric morphometric assessment of the fossil bears of Namur,Belgium: Allometry and ecomorphology

The Namur area in Belgium is useful to study brown (Ursus arctos) and cave bears (Ursus spelaeus) as the assemblage contains little temporal and no geographical variation. Here, we aim to assess ontogenetic allometry within cave bears, as well as ecomorphological differences between adult brown bears (n = 9), adult cave bears (n = 5) and juvenile cave bears (n = 3). Landmarks for 3D digitization of the mandible were chosen based on the taphonomical damage of the specimens. Extant brown bears and extinct Pleistocene brown and cave bears were digitized with a Microscribe G2. Generalized Procrustes superimposition was performed on the coordinates. Allometry was studied using regression analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to assess ecomorphological differences between the groups. 61% of the shape variance within juvenile and adult cave bears was predicted by size (n = 8, p < 0.01). The juvenile cave bears have relatively deep horizontal rami. In adult cave bears, the horizontal ramus is much narrower dorsoventrally. Juvenile cave bears have a small masseteric fossa and a short coronoid process, whereas both are larger, relative to mandible size, in adult cave bears. This made juvenile cave bears likely less effective masticators than fully grown cave bears. In the PCA, principal component (PC) 1 accounts for 45.0% of the total variance and PC2 accounts for 27.6%. Fossil U. arctos from Namur fall within the 95% confidence interval of modern North American U. arctos on both PCs, but are more similar to cave bears than the average extant brown bear. From the similarity of fossil and modern brown bears, it can be deduced that the diet of fossil brown bears was probably also within the range of their modern North American conspecifics, although they might have been more efficient at masticating plant matter.     

Paleobiological Implications of the Isotopic Signatures (C,N) of Fossil Mammal Collagen in Scladina Cave (Sclayn, Belgium)

An isotopic investigation of upper Pleistocene mammal bones and teeth from Scladina cave (Sclayn, Belgium) demonstrated the very good quality of collagen preservation. A preliminary screening of the samples used the amount of nitrogen in whole bone and dentine in order to estimate the preserved amount of collagen before starting the extraction process. The isotopic abundances of fossil specimens from still-extant species are consistent with their trophic position. Moreover, the¹⁵N isotopic abundance is higher in dentine than in bone in bears and hyenas, a phenomenon already observed in modern specimens. These results demonstrate that the isotopic compositions of samples from Scladina cave can be interpreted in ecological terms. Mammoths exhibit a high¹⁵N isotopic abundance relative to other herbivores, as was the case in Siberian and Alaskan samples. These results suggest distinctive dietary adaptations in herbivores living in the mammoth steppe. Cave bears are clearly isotopically different from coeval brown bears, suggesting an ecological separation between species, with a pure vegetarian diet for cave bear and an omnivorous diet for brown bear.     

岩土工程最小勘探数据量确定方法

准确地确定岩土设计参数统计特征值诸如均值、标准差是岩土工程可靠度分析与设计的重要前提。在满足岩土设计参数统计特征值计算精度条件下,文中提出了岩土工程最小勘探数据量的确定方法,定义了相对误差和相对变异性指标衡量岩土设计参数统计特征值计算准确性。系统地分析了静力触探试验数据量对砂土有效内摩擦角统计特征值计算精度的影响,并且根据相对误差和相对变异性指标确定了静力触探最小勘探数据量。研究结果表明,由静力触探试验间接估计砂土有效内摩擦角时均值相对误差较低,砂土有效内摩擦角相对变异性指标随静力触探试验数据量的增加而降低,即由认知不足引起的不确定性占总变异性的比值随静力触探试验数据量的增加而减小;当砂土有效内摩擦角容许相对变异性指标小于0.2时砂土有效内摩擦角在最大变异（COV=20%）与最小变异性（COV=5%）范围内,满足预定要求所需的最小静力触探试验数据量为10～100;若容许相对变异性指标小于0.3,所需的最小静力触探试验数据量为5～43。此外,间接估计岩土设计参数时经验回归模型不确定性对最小勘探数据量有显著影响。静力触探试验最小勘探数据量随经验回归模型不确定性的增大而增加,在确定岩土设计参数统计特征值时应尽量广泛收集勘探数据并选择精度较高的计算模型。     

TRMM卫星降水反演数据在珠江流域的适用性研究——以东江和北江为例

为评估最新一代TRMM 3B42-V7卫星降水反演数据产品在珠江流域的精度和适用性,选取位于珠江流域下游的东江和北江流域为研究区域,基于地面雨量站点数据评估了该产品的精度和适用性,并结合可变下渗容量（Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC）水文模型进行了水文模拟验证。对比分析结果表明,在网格尺度上,大多数网格日尺度相关系数达到0.60以上,月尺度相关系数达到0.90以上,3B42-V7产品表现出较好的精度,在区域尺度上精度得到了进一步提高;水文模拟验证分两种情景下进行,情景Ⅰ的结果表明,当水文模型由地面雨量站点数据率定时,3B42-V7产品数据的水文模拟效果不佳,个别区间内存在对洪峰流量明显的低估;情景Ⅱ的结果表明,由3B42-V7产品数据重新率定水文模型时径流模拟效果有了较大改善,说明该产品可在一定程度上作为资料缺乏地区的降水数据来源。     

多波束系统横摇、纵倾参数的校正方法

多波束水深测量系统以条幅式测量为特点,比较传统单波束测深发生了巨大的变化,能够进行实时声速、船体姿态等参数的改正.多波束系统换能器安装时存在的纵倾角度偏差(pitch bias)和横摇角度偏差(roll bias)是产生水深测量系统误差的重要来源之一.分析两个参数对水深测量精度的影响,并根据其误差在地形剖面上的表现形式,讨论实测法和剖面重合法两种参数测试的方法,特别是针对剖面重合法参数测试,制作可视化操作界面,大大方便了野外和室内参数调整.测试获取的纵倾、横摇参数输入多波束系统中进行实时水深校正.在室内资料处理中,利用参数校正方法,能够对野外采集资料进行再处理,提高资料质量.     

面向透明工作面的地质建模插值误差分析

工作面建模一般通过三维地震、井巷和钻孔测量等探测手段获取工作面的实际展布情况,然后利用插值算法建立相应模型。其中,采样数据是工作面建模的基础,插值算法是工作面模型实现的必经途径。插值算法和采样数据量的大小在不同程度上影响工作面模型的精确性,定量研究工作面模型精确度影响因素将对插值算法优选和采样数据获取量提供重要的参考价值。在工作面探测资料的基础上,通过交叉验证的方法,分别计算对比函数插值、光滑离散插值(DSI插值)和克里金插值的插值误差。为了解决透明工作面建模采样量大的问题,提出相对间距误差,并计算得到13组不同采样比例时模型的相对间距误差。结果表明:(1)透明工作面模型构建过程中,DSI插值、克里金插值和函数插值的平均绝对误差分别为0.015 5、0.022 5、0.231 2,因此,DSI插值算法构建的模型精确度最高,克里金插值算法次之,函数插值算法最差。(2)随着采样数据量的增加,模型的误差逐渐减小,当采样数据量小于10%时,插值误差下降幅度很大;但当采样数据量大于10%时,其下降幅度趋于平缓,建议在构建工作面模型时采样数据量大于10%。(3)在透明工作面模型实际构建过程中,建议采用DSI插值算法;同时根据最低采样数据量分析得到的最佳更新距离和最佳采样间距进行采样,提高工作面局部数据量。      

太平洋多金属结核富集区结核丰度和品位的地质统计学分析

本文对太平洋ＣＣ区（Ｃｌａｒｉｏｎ－ＣｈｐｐｅｔｏｎＺｏｎｅ）多金属结核富集区的结核丰度、品位（Ｍｎ、Ｃｕ、Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ）进行了详细的地质统计学分析、获得了较好的实验变差图。分析结果表明光滑型结核富集区的丰度变程为５０～６０ｋｍ，结核水平分布连续性好，丰度稳定而变化小，结核中Ｍｎ、Ｃｕ、Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ四种金属元素变程为８０～１００ｋｍ，各向异性和空穴效应现象不明显；粗糙型结核富集区丰度变程为４０～５０ｋｍ，结核中Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ、Ｍｎ变差图拟合较困难，它们的变程约１００ｋｍ，大多数变差图形表现出有漂移、穴穴效应和各向异性现象，结合其它实际调查资料分析，影响变差函数稳健性的主要因素是粗糙型结核贫富分布不均且变化大。克立格法和算术平均法两种方法计算得出的结核资源量误差一般为１%～２%。最大误差不超过７%，这与以往的分析结果基本一致。研究结果表明，结核丰度采样间距为２８ｋｍ×２８ｋｍ，结核资源估计误差:光滑型结核区为２９.４５%的资源估计误差下降到１４.５９%，粗糙型结核区为３６.０７%；采样间距缩小到１３ｋｍ×１３ｋｍ，光滑型结核区的资源估计误差下降到１４.５９%，而粗造型结核区资源估计误差仍有２３.０１%。     

关于管道勘察报告中数理统计方法的研究应用

管道勘察中的分区数理统计是综合反映管道的地表植被、工程地质、地形地貌、岩性特征、不良地质作用等的一系列重要参数,它为管道的设计施工提供了具体翔实的基础资料。在编制输油管道勘察报告过程中,管道数据量庞大,地表植被分区、工程地质分区等数理统计工作占据很大的工作量。但就目前来看,人们普遍还是采用传统的人工计算器运算,这样既繁琐、费时,出错率还很高。本文根据现状,对于管道的数理统计方法进行了相应的分析研究,开发出基于测量平台并具本专业特色的统计软件,提高了数理统计效率,减少了工作量,降低了出错机率,取得了很好的效果。     

Extremely ferrous fayalite and hedenbergite from metalliferous quartzite in the Black Shale Formation in the Southern Urals

The paper reports data on the inner structure and composition of fine-grained fayalite-hedenbergite hydrothermal-metasomatic veinlet in unusual quartzite (so-called kluchevite) in the Black Shale Formation in the Southern Urals. The fayalite and hedenbergite are the most ferrous among these minerals ever found worldwide, and their compositions extend to the ferrous end members. The minerals are devoid of Mg but contain variable Zn concentrations. The groundmass of the rock is very fine-grained and bears fayalite-hedenbergite symplectites with a minor amount of barite. The composition of fayalite in the minute phenocrysts is close to the composition of the mineral in the symplectites. Both fayalite varieties contain variable but always high ZnO concentrations (0.40–3.70 wt %). The hedenbergite exhibits analogous compositional features. Zn-bearing magnetite grains were found near these minerals, along with a number of varieties of pyrrhotite, covellite, and other Cu sulfides. Judging by its morphological features and texture, the rock is of hydrothermal genesis.     

On statistical models for fission track counts

The statistical basis for the usual analysis of fission track counts obtained by the external detector method is discussed and illustrated with examples. A consequence is that if any observed correlation between counts of spontaneous and induced tracks is due to heterogeneity in the density of uranium, then the model proposed by McGee and Johnson (1979)for assessing the experimental error is inappropriate and results based on it could be misleading. The same remark applies to the method proposed by Johnson, McGee, and Naeser (1979).     

应用统计降尺度方法预估江淮流域未来降水

统计降尺度方法广泛应用于弥补大气环流模式(GCM)模拟区域气候变化能力较弱的不足。利用1960~2009年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和江淮流域52个站点降水观测资料,通过敏感性分析,针对4个季节分别选择10个大尺度预测因子,采用主成分分析(PCA)和支持向量机(SVM)相结合的方法,建立了江淮流域降水统计降尺度模型。检验结果表明,该模型获取的江淮流域降水的偏差显著减小,能够描述降水在月、年尺度的变化,适用于HadCM3输出的大尺度气候场,具有预测未来降水变化的能力。将统计降尺度模型应用于HadCM3在A2情景下输出的2020~2099年大尺度预测因子,分3个时段:2020~2039年,2050~2069年和2080~2099年,从年和季节两个时间尺度分析江淮流域未来降水变化。结果表明,相对1960~1999年,未来3个时段的降水有小幅增加,其中2080~2099年增幅最大,为3.6 mm;在未来3个时段的不同季节,降水变化呈现出不同特征。     

井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量的影响因素数值分析

对于重非水相污染场地,传统的钻孔取样方式因经费和取样个数的限制,往往无法准确估计含水层中重非水相污染物的残留量。井间分溶示踪法费用较低,且不会对污染源区造成破坏,可适用于推估重非水相污染物残留量,但目前该方法的准确性尚未得到验证。本文基于数值模拟方法探讨了示踪剂注入速率、示踪剂类型以及污染源区结构等多因素对井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量准确性的影响。数值算例结果表明:井间分溶示踪实验估计重非水相污染物残留量的误差小于15%;降低示踪剂的注入速率使得分溶性示踪剂在非水相和水相流体间作用更充分,能够提高井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量的精度,实验中示踪剂注入速率由500 m3/d降为250 m3/d后,多种情景的平均精度由91.68%提高至93%;选取低分溶系数的示踪剂有利于提高示踪剂的回收率,从而提高推估精度,实验中示踪剂由2,2-二甲基-3-戊醇改为己醇后,平均精度由87.83%提高至96.85%;复杂的重非水相液体污染源区结构易于出现示踪剂绕流等现象,导致井间分溶示踪估计重非水相污染物残留量的误差增大,实验中含水层由均质变为非均质后,平均精度由93.03%变为91.65%。重非水相污染场地调查时,建议结合数值模拟方法选择适宜的示踪剂和示踪剂注入速率,以提高污染场地的刻画精度。     

树轮宽度记录的天山东段近200a干湿变化

利用采自天山东部两处不同地点上下限的西伯利亚落叶松(Larix sibirica Ledb.)树轮样芯,分别建立了树轮宽度年表.经相关普查和响应函数的计算表明,天山东段森林下限的树轮年表与该地区3~6月的降水和气温相关显著,通过定义湿润指数,以树轮宽度为指标,重建了天山东段巴里坤地区近200 a来春季至初夏湿润指数的演变历史,解释方差为42%.统计分析表明,重建的湿润指数序列与邻近气象站的器测资料计算得到的湿润指数序列呈显著的正相关关系.重建序列能较好地反映天山东段近200 a来春季至初夏的干湿变化,在200 a中有6个显著的湿润时段和7个显著的干旱时段.天山东段近200 a来3~6月湿润指数序列的显著周期是11 a,然后依次存在16 a、5 a、8 a、3 a和32 a的稳定周期.     

结构面粗糙度统计测量最小样本数确定方法

由于结构面粗糙度具有各质异性、各向异性、非均一性和尺寸效应等特征，结构面粗糙度系数（JRC）取值具有不确定性，工程中广泛采用统计方法来分析结构面粗糙度性质，然而以往研究往往忽略样本数不足对统计结果的影响。针对结构面粗糙度统计测量时无法确定合理样本数的问题，分别提出基于变异系数级比分析及简单随机抽样原理的最小样本数确定方法。以实际工程岩体结构面表面数据为研究对象，对比分析两种方法在系列尺寸下确定的统计测量最小样本数。实例分析表明：小尺寸样本的变异系数（CV）值明显大于大尺寸样本，且CV值随取样尺寸的增大而减小，取样尺寸为10～50 cm的CV值基本稳定在0.31～0.47之间，取样尺寸为60～100 cm的CV值基本稳定在0.21～0.31之间；最小样本数与取样尺寸基本满足幂函数关系，且最小样本数随取样尺寸的增大而减少；系列尺寸下级比分析方法在允许误差为±2%时确定的最小样本数与简单随机抽样原理在最大允许误差为10%、置信度为95%时计算的最小样本数是一致的，相似度大于0.997。该研究方法可为工程岩体中定量获取结构面粗糙度统计测量最小样本数提供依据，保证了JRC（结构面粗糙度系数）统计测量结果的准确性，对工程岩体稳定性评价中结构面力学参数的准确获取具有重要意义。     

Analysis of Cloud Scale Error of Low Resolution Satellite Based on GF-4 and Its Influence on Downward Radiation Calculation

In order to study the scale error of low resolution meteorological satellite cloud detection and its impact on the calculation of downlink radiation, cloud detection using high resolution stationary satellite GF-4 data and error analysis were carried out. Firstly, the cloud detection of GF-4 data is carried out by using visible channel threshold method and time series method, and the error of cloud detection results of Himawari-8 and FY-2 (FY-2G, FY-2E) is analyzed based on the results of GF-4 cloud detection.In the study area, FY-2G, FY-2E and Himawari-8 cloud images could distinguish the clouds and clear sky. The main reason for the error was the scale effect produced by different spatial resolution satellites(the differences caused by cloud detection algorithms are not discussed here).Most of the errors occurred in the areas of thin clouds and broken clouds.High resolution data could detect broken clouds, while low resolution data lead to false and missed detection. On this basis, the error of remote sensing calculation of short wave radiation was analyzed,and it was found that the error of the actual cloud amount in the pixel would bring significant error to the estimation of the downward radiation.The relative error of the instantaneous downward radiation in the selected test area was -173.52%, and the maximum relative error of shortwave radiation was -20.20%.The results show that the high resolution stationary satellite data can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the downlink shortwave radiation in the regions with more broken clouds.     

基于变动饱和带的产汇流模型及其参数确定方法

当前分布式水文模型的参数确定仍主要依赖率定方式,在缺资料地区应用受到限制。建立一种基于变动饱和带产流模式和网格水滴汇流方法的分布式产汇流模型,提出利用下垫面特征来确定模型参数的方法。结合野外入渗试验和参数敏感性分析,建立地表饱和水力传导度(K_0z)和饱和水力传导度随深度衰减系数(f)2个敏感性产流参数与地形参数、土壤类型数据的定量统计关系,利用野外坡面流观测试验确定坡面汇流参数,并在多个实际流域进行应用验证。结果表明：(1)利用地形参数确定K_0z与使用遥感资料确定K_0z的模型精度进行对比,在姜湾实验流域场次洪水模拟的平均确定性系数从0.82提高至0.86,洪峰与洪量误差的平均绝对值分别降低了2.2%和0.95%,但峰现时间误差平均绝对值增大了4%(仍控制在2 h内)。(2)建立姜湾等14个流域参数f率定值与不同深度土壤类型数据的定量关系,移用至七邻等6个流域进行验证,表明参数f关系式与模型率定的精度非常接近,相对误差的平均绝对值为2.8%,场次洪水模拟的平均确定性系数为0.83,洪峰与洪量误差的平均绝对值为10.07%和...     

A generalization of distribution data for characterizing the performance of float-sink coal cleaning devices

The performance of float-sink coal cleaning devices customarily is characterized by a distribution curve, in which the percent of feed reporting to clean coal is plotted against specific gravity. For a given vessel and a given feed a family of distribution curves can be obtained, each having its own specific gravity of separation.This paper presents a method for combining these distribution curves at different specific gravities of separation, for a given coal cleaning vessel and a given feed, into a single, generalized distribution curve which is independent of the specific gravity of separation. This curve can be expressed in tabular form or it can be represented mathematically by an exponential type equation, known as a Weibull function.A different generalized distribution curve will be obtained for each of several different size fractions. A method is presented for utilizing these curves with feeds which encompass a broad spectrum of sizes.The well-known concepts of error area and probable error are extended to the generalized distribution curve. It is shown that the conventional probable error, and — under certain conditions — the conventional error area, are directly proportional to the specific gravity of separation for a given vessel and a given feed size.