“人口回流”视角下的中部地区乡村振兴——对湖北“毛嘴模式”的实证

采用质性研究方法,以中部地区湖北的“毛嘴模式”为例,围绕武汉汉正街与仙桃毛嘴镇的城乡联系问题,研究人口回流及返乡创业所带动的地方发展,解析其对乡村振兴的重要作用。研究发现：①劳动力回流受家庭需求、家乡发展环境等多重因素影响;资本回流的主要影响因素是雇佣“本地化”劳动力,也涉及城市更新及其“外部性”效应的间接影响;②技能型劳动力回流以及企业家在城-乡间的高频流动,有利于发挥流动人口的“桥梁”作用;③回流人口主要从事与之前就业相关的行业,倾向于在镇区或市区购买商品房,促进了乡村经济转型,同时利于社会资本的培育,重塑了乡村社会空间。     

The determinants and consequences of female migration in Thailand

Female migration in Thailand, especially from rural areas to the Bangkok Metropolis, is an important migratory phenomenon which leads to an unfavorable population distribution. Generally the migration level in Thailand is low but many women from the rural areas, especially from the Northeast Region, move to Bangkok Metropolis to seek work. Findings reveal that the majority of migrants are young, single women. Women migrants find it relatively easy to participate in the Bangkok labor market. Service work is the main source of employment. For the temporary migrants, it was found that those from the Northeast Region tend to return to their hometown in higher proportion than those from other regions. This was particularly so among young women migrants.     

欠发达农区外出务工规模及影响因素分析

根据对河南省农区十村11251 户农户的入户调查资料,认为农民外出务工的数量与规模是经济因素、家庭 因素和环境因素综合作用的结果。多元回归模型显示：①外出务工经济收益与成本、家庭人口状况、农户家庭经营 地、农户家庭生活性支出等正向影响农户外出务工的规模;②农区家庭劳动力文化状况中,初中及以下学历人数正 向影响农区外出务工的规模,高中及以上学历人数负向影响农区外出务工的规模;③环境因素中,经济水平因子对 农区外出务工规模的影响是正向的,地形、通达性和土地类型等三个因子对农区外出务工规模的影响是负向的。     

Migration,Sources of Income,and Community Change in the Nonmetropolitan Northwest

During the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, the nonmetropolitan Northwest grew quite rapidly, narrowing the gap between the growth rates of the metropolitan Northwest, and oupacing national rates. This growth was largely the result of in-migration from regional and national metropolitan areas. Traditional economic base theory does not explain the recent growth, as employment levels in in the region's basic industries continue to stagnate and decline, and the sources of income for these in-migrants remain a mystery. This paper utilizes data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to determine the extent to which metropolitan-origin migrants are measurably different from oldtime nonmetropolitan residents on certain socioeconomic variables, in an attempt to understand the ways in which the newcomers survive financially. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that newcomers are younger, earn less in wages and salary, receive more nonearnings income, and reside in more valuable housing compared with the resident population. Discriminant analysis shows that differences in the earned income measures are largely explained by age differences, while the nonearnings income and value of residence remainsignificantly higher for the metropolitan origin migrants even when age and earned income are controlled. While the analysis indicates that measurable socioeconomic differences do exist between the two populations, it appears that the current wave of growth and change in the nonmetropolitan Northwest is much more complicated than a simple newcomer-oldtimer dichotomy.     

Female migration to Taipei: process and adaptation

Women form an increasing proportion of migrants and of the non-agricultural labor force in Taiwan. However, many questions regarding female migration in Taiwan have remained unanswered since the focus of the migration literature in the past has been on male migration. This paper examines the decision process of rural-urban migration and adaptation of rural female migrants to the Taipei metropolis. The analysis is based on interviews of 96 female migrants who have moved to Taipei from villages. The reasons for migration are severalfold. With rapid expansion of employment in the manufacturing and urban service sectors, women are attracted to urban occupations, most of which require unskilled labor. Migrants are also motivated by psycho-social reasons. The "glamour" and "convenience" of city and greater chances for further education through work-study programs are all perceived by migrants to provide alternatives to hard and unrewarding farm lives. Though the initiative and final decision to move come from the migrants themselves, most only do so, however, with the consent and advice of their parents. The choice of moving to Taipei, rather than some other city, is mainly influenced by friends or relatives who are alrady there. Their initial jobs and accommodations are arranged by friends and relatives. The majority of women are employed in unskilled or semi-skilled occupations. Even though they change jobs frequently in order to find better employment terms and pay, they experience limited upward mobility. Homesickness, unfamiliarity with the city environment, limited resoureces, and social lives are major problems for the rural female. Freequent home vistits are made in between jobs to relieve themselves of homesickness and the pressures of city life. Once settled, they do not segreate themselves by village origin in their occupation or palces of residence in the city, but they have a tendency to interact socially with other migrants of rural origin rather than city people.     

Migration,Sources of Income,and Community Change in the Nonmetropolitan Northwest

During the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, the nonmetropolitan Northwest grew quite rapidly, narrowing the gap between the growth rates of the metropolitan Northwest, and oupacing national rates. This growth was largely the result of in-migration from regional and national metropolitan areas. Traditional economic base theory does not explain the recent growth, as employment levels in in the region's basic industries continue to stagnate and decline, and the sources of income for these in-migrants remain a mystery. This paper utilizes data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to determine the extent to which metropolitan-origin migrants are measurably different from oldtime nonmetropolitan residents on certain socioeconomic variables, in an attempt to understand the ways in which the newcomers survive financially. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that newcomers are younger, earn less in wages and salary, receive more nonearnings income, and reside in more valuable housing compared with the resident population. Discriminant analysis shows that differences in the earned income measures are largely explained by age differences, while the nonearnings income and value of residence remainsignificantly higher for the metropolitan origin migrants even when age and earned income are controlled. While the analysis indicates that measurable socioeconomic differences do exist between the two populations, it appears that the current wave of growth and change in the nonmetropolitan Northwest is much more complicated than a simple newcomer-oldtimer dichotomy.     

新型城镇化背景下流动特征与农民工回流意愿的关系

使用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,借助描述性分析和多分类Logistic回归模型分析方法,探讨新型城镇化背景下农民工回流意愿的现状与特点、流动特征与回流意愿的关系。研究发现,农民工的回流意愿很弱,有回流意愿并打算近期回流的农民工比例较低,回流地域以原居地为主、户籍地的乡镇和区县政府所在地为辅。模型结果显示,流动特征显著影响农民工的回流意愿：跨省流动者“打算回流”的概率大于省内流动者;流动时间短和非举家流动者“打算回流”“近期回流”“回原居地”的概率分别大于流动时间长和举家流动者;有留守子女者“打算回流”“近期回流”的概率大于没有留守子女者。最后,建议政府实施以“异地市民化”为主、“回流式市民化”为辅的市民化策略;继续深化制度改革,为农民工流动扫清制度壁垒和提供均等化公共服务;促进中西部和东北部地区的经济社会发展,出台鼓励农民工回乡创业和就业的优惠政策等方式来推进以农民工市民化为重点的新型城镇化发展。     

Returning home: migrant connections and visions for local development in rural Nepal

Migration to domestic and international destinations has become an emblematic feature of Nepal’s societal changes. Part of this development is education migration from rural to urban areas within the borders of Nepal, an often overlooked but increasingly important aspect of contemporary migration flows. By focusing on these educational migrants, this paper explores how they connect to their rural homes. Guided by a critical reading of the migration-development scholarship, the paper examines how migrants and their relatives make sense of educational migrants’ remitting and returning practices, and by comparing three groups of educational migrants, the migrants’ reasons for staying connected and sending remittances are scrutinized. The paper finds that although educational migrants do not generate extensive economic remittances for local development in Nepal, they stay connected to their rural homes and partake in important social remittance practices that represent a vision for impacting local development.     

劳动力回流的驱动因素与就业行为研究进展

全球化与经济一体化的深入促使劳动力的空间流动更为频繁,并呈现外出与回流并存的格局。作为发展中人口大国,中国的劳动力回流现象不断增多,流动“双向化”趋势日趋明显。本文从劳动力回流理论、回流动因、回流者的就业行为与影响机制入手,对国内外已有文献进行梳理分析,发现在回流理论中,主张成功/失败的经济理论长期占据主导地位,但这一分析范式开始受到社会学理论的挑战。回流决策不仅受外出者自身经济因素所驱使,而是在社会联系、地方经济政策环境等因素的综合影响下产生的。回流劳动力并不是简单的经济上的“失败者”,他们通过物质资本和人力资本积累,表现出更强的就业能力,通过自主创业等活动,促进了家庭收入的增加和家乡经济多元化。但由于制度环境及经济发展特点的差异,中国国内劳动力回流的动因与就业行为具有自身特点。最后,从回流理论、回流的空间效应及新生代农民工回流等方面对中国未来的回流研究进行了展望。     

论中部农区农户打工区位选择影响因素——以河南省三个样本村为例

对农户打工区位的研究是认识农民工流动空间规律的基础。通过对河南省南阳市三个不同类型样本村的实证研究,发现打工者不同的个人特征、家庭特征和社区特征对其打工地的选择具有重要影响。其中,个人特征中的性别对打工空间、年龄对打工距离及打工空间具有显著影响;家庭特征中的家庭类型对打工距离、家庭代数和家庭上学子女数量对打工距离和打工空间具有显著影响;社区特征中的村经济发展水平、村地形对打工空间具有显著影响,农户关系网络对打工地的选择具有关键作用。农户对打工地的选择是在能够预期取得一定收入的前提下,综合考虑个人、家庭和社区因素的结果,地理环境因素对打工地的选择具有重要影响。     

U.S. Intercounty Migration in the 1990s: People and Income Move Down the Urban Hierarchy

Internal migration within the United States continues to transform both the magnitude and composition of population at all geographic scales. During 1994 ‐ 1995, the majority of counties gained both people and income, largely as a consequence of net outmigration by higher income migrants from the nation's most populous cities. Regionally, net gainers of both people and income included counties in the West and South as well as other areas renowned for environmental amenities. Spatially, net migration flowed down the urban hierarchy from large central cities to adjacent suburbs which, in turn, exported migrants to exurban areas. Large cities tended to exchange migrants with nearby counties as well as other large cities. Migration patterns such as these are contributing to spatial deconcentration and economic disparity.     

Hukou and non-hukou migrations in China: comparisons and contrasts

The household registration (hukou) system in China was studied using China's 1990 census 1% microdata and interprovincial migration studies. In doing this, the socioeconomic characteristics and geographical patterns of long-distance hukou and non-hukou migratory flows were compared before developing a framework of dual migration circuits. The framework uses a statistical model to evaluate migration rates in relation to both origin and destination variables. It was found that these two types of migrants shared some general demographic characteristics, but displayed substantial socioeconomic differences. The hukou migrants that tended to originate in urban areas had an extremely high share of college-educated people and were employed in higher skilled jobs, while non-hukou migrants were mostly from rural areas with much lower educational attainment. Hukou labor migrants tended to move through government and formal channels, while non-hukou migrants relied on their own, often informal, source of jobs. Furthermore, a difference as to the migration mechanisms between hukou and non-hukou migrants was noted. Non-hukou migration rate were tied positively to the migration stock, a process consistent with a networked migration hypothesis, while hukou migration rates were not. The rural labor migrants moved away from provinces of high population pressure to those with more favorable land/labor ratios, in line with neoclassical predictions. Hukou migration moved in the opposite direction, reflecting a different set of factors at work. The analysis indicates that the hukou system remained a relatively powerful institution in structuring migration in the 1980s.     

区域协调发展背景下流动人口回流的空间意愿及其政策含义

人口空间分布格局的改变既是区域协调发展战略实施的结果,也是推进区域协调发展的重要手段之一。本文以流动人口的回流空间意愿作为切入点,采用全国性大规模抽样问卷调查数据,对流动人口回流的空间意愿、群体差异和影响因素进行研究,并探讨其对区域协调发展和新型城镇化的政策含义。研究发现,流动人口的回流意愿薄弱;对具有回流意愿的流动人口来说,回流空间的路径选择以返回原居地为主、乡镇中心和县城为辅。模型结果显示,流动人口回流空间选择不仅是其人力资本和流动经历正向选择的结果,也显著地受到流出地住房和流入地的就业收入和养老保险等因素的影响,而流出地的家庭需求和空间成本则无显著影响。在此背景下,政策制定者不能高估人口回流对人口流动空间格局和人口均衡发展的调整作用,也不能高估回流劳动力对流出地城镇化和城乡协调发展的促进作用,而应加强流出地城镇自我可持续发展的能力,吸引人口主动回流,以推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化战略的落实。     

The labour-market impact of migration to rural areas

An economic audit of the labour-market impact of in-migration to rural Scotland provides evidence that migrants make rather than take jobs. A survey of 689 households in six study areas selected from across rural Scotland provides the basis for examining the scale and nature of job growth associated with in-migration. Job multipliers are calculated by migrant type and by economic sector.     

珠三角外围地区农村回流劳动力的就业选择及影响因素

在农村劳动力持续外流的同时,农村地区的劳动力存在着弱回流,农村回流劳动力对乡村振兴与重构极为重要。基于珠三角外围地区不同地域类型的15个村的问卷调查资料,采用Logistic回归模型,对农村回流劳动力的就业选择特征及非农就业的影响因素进行综合分析。研究发现：① 外出务工的工资性收入的资本积累,是返乡从事零售、杂货、服装和个体修理等个体经营的基础,非农就业在空间选择上倾向于中心镇或县（区）。② 农村人口外流致使农村地域的人地关系发生显著变化,农地生计保障性功能弱化,农地规模经营的租种成本降低,部分农村回流劳动力选择从事农业生产,主要以种植经济果林、药材为主,助推了农用地非粮化。③ 农村回流劳动力的非农就业受到个人特征、家庭特征、村庄特征等多元因素影响。在个人特征方面,年龄越小、受教育程度越高的回流者从事非农职业的倾向性越大;在家庭特征方面,家庭务农人数与务工人数越少、农田面积越小的回流劳动力倾向于从事非农职业;在村庄特征方面,不同县域的农村劳动力就业倾向差异较大,距离县城越近的农村劳动力从事非农职业的几率越大。县域村镇体系的中心地发展与规划建设是乡村转型发展的关键地域节点。     

地方城市的人口回流与移民战略——基于深圳-驻马店的调查研究

改革开放30 多年来,沿海大都市和内陆地方城市之间的发展差距不断拉大,其中人口流动是重要动因。因此,如何吸引人口回流,留住本地人才,是内陆地方城市未来发展的关键。在此背景下,以驻马店为案例地,通过实地调研和问卷访谈,探讨了在深圳市的驻马店籍人口的回流意愿,以及当前驻马店的人口回流状况,并重点对回流创业者与回流购房者的回流动因、地域选择、就业动向及预期等进行了调查分析。研究表明,以驻马店为代表的地方城市已出现了以U-turn 与I-turn 为主的人口回流现象,且回流人口大都从事或打算从事与之前就业行业相关的创业活动。已发现有两种主动回流类型,即创业回流和购房回流。其中,购房回流也可看作是创业回流的前奏,二者可理解为同一回流过程的两个阶段。如果地方政府能够做出积极的政策引导,回流人口及其带动的返乡经济可望成为地方城市摆脱发展困境的一个新战略。     

Recent trends in human migrations: the case of the Venezuelan Andes

Changes in world capitalism caused prices of traditional raw materials to fall and new energy demands to arise at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century. The Andean countries witnessed the fall in the value of their exports and began to receive large flows of foreign investment in mining and industry. Consequently, urban economies were strengthened and demographic patterns were changed. This led to the internal migrations and to a process of social change. These consequences are summarized from relevant studies focusing on Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela. Since the 1960s a compendium of information has become available which highlights the causes of the migration, migration patterns, the composition of migratory movements, and the mechanisms that the migrant uses to establish himself/herself in the city. Preston (1969) distinguished 2 migratory patterns in Ecuador: rural to urban, with migratory flows from the rural areas to urban centers and new industrial cities that experienced development and high demand for unskilled labor at comparatively high wages: and rural to rural, based on the movement of population from depressed rural areas to other areas in which programs for colonization or commercial agriculture have been promoted. In a study of Colombia, McGreevey (1968) identifies the lack of cultivatable land, rural violence in certain departments, and other economic and family causes as the principal factors that induced migrations to the cities. The study emphasizes that the predominant model of movement relates to "fill in" migration. The spatial mobility of the Venezuelan Andean population was initially outlined in a voluminous report on economic and social problems of the region (1954). The study indicates that during the intercensal period 1941-50 cities grew much more rapidly than rural "municipos" and that the drive to find employment and earn a living were the most important motives in the movement of peasants to the cities. All of the studies identified that use demographic, economic, or phychosocial approaches have provided partial explanations of the current status of Andean migrations. The explanations they offer, by not transcending the current reality of the migrants, overlook the historical traits of internal migration. Migratory flows do not spring up suddenly. They result from specific socio-political circumstances which, when closely linked to demographic evidence, serve as a basis for understanding the process. Review of studies on internal migration in the Northern Andes, as presented here, reveals a series of distinguishing characteristics: there are 5 migratory patterns--rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to urban, seasonal worker migration, and return migration, and the predominant pattern has been rural to urban; the demographic data show the importance of rural migrants to urban growth in the region and a complementary loss of population in the rural areas; depopulation of the countryside has been selective; and there is a marked disparity in employment remuneration between rural and urban areas.     

Using a migration systems approach to understand the link between climate change and urbanisation in Malawi

Most scholarship on rural–urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrates that migrants tend to move in a “circular” fashion and only spend short periods of time in cities before returning home to rural villages. However, some scholars working on the impacts of climate change on migration suggest that deteriorating environmental conditions may undermine rural livelihoods and lead people to move to cities for longer periods of time. If this is true, then climate change threatens to accelerate urbanisation and lead to renewed stress on urban infrastructure. The purpose of this paper is to explore these positions and we do so by collecting survey [n = 241], in-depth interview [n = 75] and focus group [n = 123 participants] data from rural and urban Malawi. Two key results stand out as significant. The first is that migrants in Malawi's capital city tend to stay in the urban environment for longer periods of time than conventional understandings of migration would predict. The second key result is that climate change may actually lead, in the case of Malawi, to reverse (i.e urban–rural) migration. This is because many of the people in Malawi's cities depend on products produced in rural environments (e.g. food and fuelwood). If climate change undermines rural livelihoods, then many urban residents will find the basis of their livelihoods removed and will likely respond by moving back to rural villages. Overall, our results, therefore, suggest that in at least one case the effect of climate change on migration may not be to increase migration towards cities but to stimulate an exodus from cities and back to the rural countryside.     

Spatial Patterns of Migration and Income Change in the Mountain West: The Dominance of Service‐Based,Amenity‐Rich Counties

One of the most recognizable and important changes occurring in the West is rapid population growth. This article intends to address questions associated with whether patterns of population growth and income migration are associated with “new” and “old” West economies. Rural restructuring in the U.S. has created a group of counties with service‐based economies. In the Mountain West, a number of counties with service‐based economies are located in areas with high levels of environmental or natural amenities, creating what has been termed the “New West.” Migration to the rural parts of the Mountain West, and the income transfers associated with migration, are increasingly concentrated within these New West counties. Rapid population growth, the changing characteristics of in‐migrants, and their spatial concentration in New West counties provide a basis for conflicts over what the rural West is becoming.     

农村劳动力回流的影响因素分析——以广东省云浮市为例

改革开放以来,中国大规模的人口流动对资源的优化配置和经济快速发展产生了深远的影响.然而,中国的农村劳动力流动正逐渐从单向转变为城乡双向流动的格局,这一变化无疑将深刻影响我国农村地区的发展前景.文中采用对广东省云浮市农户的调查数据,通过构建Logistic模型,从农村外出劳动力个体行为决策的视角探讨农村劳动力回流的影响因素.实证研究表明:人力资本较低,年龄偏大,家庭儿童数量较多、老人数量较少和已婚的外出劳动力回流的可能性较大;而外出务工时间对回流概率的影响呈倒U型分布;家乡的非农就业机会与村庄的区位因素也显