Spatial identification and scenario simulation of the ecological transition zones under the climate change in China

Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs) and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, a quantitative spatial identification method was developed to assess ETZ distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone(iHLZ) model. Based on climate observations collected from 782 weather stations in China in the T0(1981–2010) period, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(IPCC CMIP5) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the T1(2011–2040), T2(2041–2070), and T3(2071–2100) periods, the spatial distribution of ETZs and their response to climate scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods of T0, T1, T2, and T3. Additionally, a spatial shift of mean center model was developed to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ETZ type during the periods from T0 to T3. The simulated results revealed 41 ETZ types in China, accounting for 18% of the whole land area. Cold temperate grassland/humid forest and warm temperate arid forest(564,238.5 km~2), cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid/humid forest(566,549.75 km~2), and north humid/humid forest and cold temperate humid forest(525,750.25 km~2) were the main ETZ types, accounting for 35% of the total ETZ area in China. Between 2010 and 2100, the area of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub/thorn steppe ETZs were projected to increase at a rate of 4% per decade, which represented an increase of 3604.2, 10063.1, and 17,242 km~2 per decade under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The cold ETZ was projected to transform to the warm humid ETZ in the future. The average shift distance of the mean center in the north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub/thorn grassland ETZs was generally larger than that of other ETZs, with the mean center moving to the northeast and the shift distance being more than 150 km during the periods from T0 to T3.In addition, with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation, the ETZs in northern China displayed a shifting northward trend, while the area of ETZs in southern China decreased gradually, and their mean center moved to high-altitude areas. The effects of climate change on ETZs presented an increasing trend in China, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

过去2000年中国气候重建与极端事件研究最新进展（英文）

China is distinguished by a prominent monsoonal climate in the east of the country, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Because of the long history of Chinese civilization, there are abundant and well-dated documentary records for climate variation over the whole of the country as well as many natural archives(e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments and corals) that enable high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper, we review recent advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events over the last 2000 years in China. In the last 10 years, many new reconstructions, based on multi-proxies with wide spatial coverage, have been published in China. These reconstructions enable us to understand the characteristics of climate change across the country as well as the uncertainties of regional reconstructions. Synthesized reconstructed temperature results show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years occurred in AD 1–200, AD 551–760, AD 951–1320, and after AD 1921, and also show that cold intervals were in AD 201–350, AD 441–530, AD 781–950, and AD 1321–1920. Extreme cold winters, seen between 1500 and 1900, were more frequent than those after 1950. The intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years. In the eastern monsoonal region of China, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations are seen in rainfall variability. While the ensemble mean for drought/flood spatial patterns across all cold periods shows a meridional distribution, there is a tri-pole pattern with respect to droughts south of 25°N, floods between 25° and 30°N, and droughts north of 30°N for all warm periods. Data show that extreme drought events were most frequent in the periods AD 301–400, AD 751–800, AD 1051–1150, AD 1501–1550, and AD 1601–1650, while extreme flood events were frequent in the periods AD 101–150, AD 251–300, AD 951–1000, AD 1701–1750, AD 1801–1850, and AD 1901–1950. Between AD 1551–1600, extreme droughts and flood events occurred frequently. In arid northwest China, climate was characterized by dry conditions in AD 1000–1350, wet conditions in AD 1500–1850, and has tended to be wet over recent decades. On the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation have occurred over the last 1000 years, interrupted by several multidecadal-scale severe drought events. Of these, the most severe were in the 1480 s and 1710 s. In southwest China, extreme droughts as severe as those seen in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 are known to have occurred during historical times.     

Geochemical evidences of dry climate in the Mid-Holocene in Gonghe Basin, northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Previous research on climatic change in the Mid-Holocene in China indicates that it was a warm and humid period, accompanied by stronger summer monsoons, and it is defined as the Megathermal in the Holocene, or the Holocene Optimum period. However, this conclusion is mainly directed at the monsoonal region in eastern China. In this research, we chose the Gonghe Basin in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as the study area. Geochemical analysis of the profiles of paleosols and aeolian sand in the Santala area in the middle of the Gonghe Basin, along with OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) dating, indicates that the regional climate has experienced several warm-humid and cold-dry cycles since 11.8 ka. In particular, the Mid-Holocene (8.1–4.6 ka) was relatively cold and dry as evidenced by drastic fluctuations in chemical weathering degree and humidity, a higher aridity index, and sparse vegetation, accompanying increased winter monsoonal strength. In order to clarify whether this is an individual or local signal, we compared our geochemical analysis results with lake and peat records and aeolian deposits of the monsoonal boundary region. The results indicate that the climate deteriorated widely, with declines in temperature and moisture, in the Mid-Holocene in the modern monsoonal boundary zone. Furthermore, the duration of climate deterioration (relatively dry period) generally decreased from west to east in the aforementioned regions. Therefore, this dry phase in Gonghe Basin may be representative of dry events in Mid-Holocene in northern China. In addition, we discuss the reasons for this dry climate from several perspectives: (1) it probably can be attributed to a decline in summer monsoonal strength; (2) the regional evaporation loss (forced by high temperature) was not compensated by regional precipitation; (3) the thermal dynamic effect of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.     

中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性（英文）

Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models(GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term(2070–2099) relative to the baseline period(1981–2010). Under 2℃ and 4℃ warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.     

Multi-scale temperature variations and their regional differences in China during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

The Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, AD950–1250) is the most recent warm period lasting for several hundred years and is regarded as a reference scenario when studying the impact of and adaptation to global and regional warming. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of temperature variations on decadal–centennial scales during the MCA for four regions(Northeast, Northwest, Central-east, and Tibetan Plateau) in China, based on high-resolution temperature reconstructions and related warm–cold records from historical documents. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to analyze the time series. The results showed that for China as a whole, the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10 th–13 th centuries, although there were multi-decadal cold intervals in the middle to late 12 th century. However, in the beginning and ending decades, warm peaks and phases on the decadal scale of the MCA for different regions were not consistent with each other. On the inter-decadal scale, regional temperature variations were similar from 950 to 1130; moreover, their amplitudes became smaller, and the phases did not agree well from 1130 to 1250. On the multi-decadal to centennial scale, all four regions began to warm in the early 10 th century and experienced two cold intervals during the MCA. However, the Northwest and Central-east China were in step with each other while the warm periods in the Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau ended about 40-50 years earlier. On the multi-centennial scale, the mean temperature difference between the MCA and Little Ice Age was significant in Northeast and Central-east China but not in the Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the mean temperature of the 20 th century, a comparable warmth in the MCA was found in the Central-east China, but there was a little cooling in Northeast China; meanwhile, there were significantly lower temperatures in Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau.     

The coupled characteristics of the physical process between sea ice of two poles and Tibetan land surface

In order to discuss the characteristics of sea ice change of strong signal area on Antarctic and Arctic and the correlation between the thermal state on the land surface of Tibetan Plateau and the atmosphere circulation of North Hemisphere or the climate changes in China, and to study the feedback mechanism among “three-pole” factors, the earlier stage “three-pole” strong signal characteristics by using statistic methods such as teleconnection,which affect the regional climate changes in China and East Asia. The cross-correlation feature and coupling effect between ice caps of North and South pole and water-thermal state on Tibetan Plateau surface are discussed as well. The contribution of three-pole's earlier stage factors to China's summer climate change and the influence of its dynamic structure are compared here. The formation mechanisms of global climate change and regional climate change of China are investigated from the aspect of qualitative correlation mode of global sea-land-air-ice.     

未来气候情景下中国生态地理区域系统温度带的北移(英文)

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species' ranges,eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems.Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario.Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS.The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones,which are sensitive to climate change.Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period(1961-1990).Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical,Subtropical,Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate,Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced.Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century.North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change,especially in East China.Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate,Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°,5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively.Moreover,northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.     

1950–2050年“一带一路”沿线国家人口与城市化发展的时空演变研究（英文）

This paper uses data for the period 1950–2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future population growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area's population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015–2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into negative population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road countries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under con-sideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban "coldspots." Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number is expected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean.     

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species’ ranges, eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems. Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario. Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961–2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS. The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones, which are sensitive to climate change. Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period (1961–1990). Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical, Subtropical, Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate, Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced. Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century. North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change, especially in East China. Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate, Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°, 5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively. Moreover, northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

Winter and summer monsoonal evolution in Gonghe Basin, northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum

Geochemical and grain size analysis on the DQ (Dongqi) profile from Gonghe Basin, northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, indicates that regional climate has experienced several cold-dry and warm-wet cycles since the last glacial maximum (LGM). The cold and dry climate dominated the region before 15.82 cal. ka B.P. due to stronger winter monsoon and weaker summer monsoon, but the climate was relatively cold and wetter prior to 21 cal. ka B.P.. In 15.82–9.5 cal. ka B.P., summer monsoon strength increased and winter monsoon tended to be weaker, implying an obvious warm climate. Specifically, the relatively cold and dry condition appeared in 14.7–13.7 cal. ka B.P. and 12.1–9.5 cal. ka B.P., respectively, while relatively warm and wet in 13.7–12.1 cal. ka B.P.. The winter and summer monsoonal strength presents frequent fluctuations in the Holocene and relatively warm and wet conditions emerged in 9.5–7.0 cal. ka B.P. due to stronger summer monsoon. From 7.0 to 5.1 cal. ka B.P., the cycle of cold-dry and warm-wet climate corresponds to frequent fluctuations of winter and summer monsoons. The climate becomes warm and wet in 5.1–2.7 cal. ka B.P., accompanying increased summer monsoon, but it tends to be cold and dry since 2.7 cal. ka B.P. due to enhanced winter monsoonal strength. In addition, the evolution of regional winter and summer monsoons is coincident with warm and cold records from the polar ice core. In other words, climatic change in the Gonghe Basin can be considered as a regional response to global climate change.     

Characteristics of geochemical weathering of L3 and S3 loess-paleosol section in the Hengshan area,Shaanxi Province北大核心CSCD

The Hengshan area in Shaanxi Province is located at the transitional junction of the Loess Plateau and the Mu Us sandy land in China. It is sensitive to environmental changes and has formed a unique paleoaeolian sand loess paleosol sequence. In this study, the L3 and S3 loess paleosol strata of the Liushumao section in Hengshan were selected for the analysis of the element content and related geochemical parameters in soil samples, to systematically explain the chemical weathering intensity and environmental evolution information recorded by the element geochemical index parameters during the L3 loess accumulation and S3 paleosol development in the Hengshan area. The results show that the major elements in the Liushumao section are mainly SiO2, Al2O3 and CaO. There are differences in the content of major elements in loess layers (L3-1, L3-2), paleosol layers (S3-1, S3-2), and aeolian sand layers (L3F, S3F). The contents of Al2O3 and Fe2O3 are the highest in the paleosol layer of the section, the content of CaO is the highest in the loess layer, and the content of Na2O is the highest in the aeolian sand layer. The CIA and Na/K values of the section samples reveal that the loess-paleosol layer are in the stage of primary chemical weathering, and the aeolian sand layer has not entered the stage of chemical weathering. The high values of CIA, Rb/Sr ratio, and magnetic susceptibility in the Liushumao section indicate the strengthening of weathering and pedogenesis, the relatively warm and humid climate in this period, the increasingly strong summer monsoon, and the fixed contraction of the Mu Us sandy land. The high values of the ratio of silicon and aluminium (Sa) and > 63 μm particle content indicate the occurrence of strong winter monsoon, which led to the activation and expansion of the sandy land under the effect of dry and cold climate. One extremely cold period, two cold periods, and a relatively warm period occurred in the L3 loess accumulation period, while two warm periods and one cold period occurred in the S3 paleosol development period. The change of element geochemical indicators in the Liushumao section revealed that the climate change in the Hengshan area was mainly affected by the change of strength of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon, which is generally consistent with other climate change records in North China. The study results provide more evidence for exploring the climate and environmental changes in the transitional area of the Loess Plateau and Mu Us sandy land in China. © 2023, Editorial office of PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY. All rights reserved.     

“一带一路”沿线区域耕地格局变化（英文）

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia,Africa and Europe.In this study,we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries(64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration.We apply FAO statistics and Globe Land30(the world's finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution),and develop three indicator groups(namely quantity,conversion,and utilization degree) for the analysis.The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10~4 km~2 between 2000 and 2010.The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia,while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China.Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Hungary(0.66×10~4 km~2) and India(0.57×10~4 km`2).China decreased 1.95×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Bangladesh(–0.22×10~4 km~2) and Thailand(–0.22×10~4 km~2).Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest,grassland,artificial surfaces and bare land,and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics:while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces,considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia.The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe,while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries.Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic-focused studies,as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses.Nevertheless,the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China' "Go Out policy" would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

Evolution of Neolithic site distribution(9.0–4.0 ka BP) in Anhui,East China

Based on archaeological surveys of Neolithic cultural development and GIS spatial analysis,this study reproduced the main characteristics of temporal distribution and settlement selection of the sites from the Neolithic Age in Anhui and identified a relationship between environmental evolution and human activity.The results show that altitude,slope direction,and slope gradient were consistent among the settlements at different stages of the Neolithic Age in Anhui,and the sites were mostly distributed in hilly and plain areas on southeast-or south-facing slopes of low gradients close to rivers.We determined that early Neolithic Age(9.0–7.0 ka BP) sites were scattered in small numbers and likely had little cultural exchange with communities of other provinces.The environmental characteristics of various regions in Anhui indicated that the climate was warm and humid with extensive water distribution.The sites of the mid Neolithic Age(7.0–5.0 ka BP) increased rapidly with wide distribution.They were mainly distributed in the plain area north of the Huaihe River and the southwestern areas of Anhui.In the mid Neolithic Age,the warm and humid climate gradually dried,and our ancestors slowly developed cultural exchanges.The largest number of sites existed during the late Neolithic Age(5.0–4.0 ka BP),and were distributed throughout the province.During this period,the overall climate was relatively dry,but humans could still obtain water and other resources through migration.The relatively benign climate facilitated cultural interaction and exchange,which increased during this time,and the Wanjiang culture matured.We also determined that as early civilization evolved,cultures in different regions responded differently to environmental changes.In humid subtropical regions,especially in low-lying plains and areas beside lakes,rivers,and coastal areas,the relatively dry climate in the late period of the middle Holocene,prefaced by a period of high humidity,was conducive to the development of human culture.The evidence from the Neolithic settlements in Anhui therefore reflects this subtropical man-land relationship between cultural development and environmental conditions.     

Identification of regional pattern of climate change risk in China under different global warming targets

Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy. Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change, which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk. This study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets. Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China, indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of th...     

Identifying hot spots of long-duration extreme climate events in the northwest arid region of China and implications for glaciers and runoff

China’s Northwest Arid Region(NAR), with dry and cold climate conditions and glaciers widely developed in the high mountains, provides vital water resources for Asia. The consecutive cold, warm, dry and wet days have much higher impacts on the water cycle process in this region than extreme temperature and precipitation events with short durations but high intensities. Parametric and nonparametric trend analysis methods widely used in climatology and hydrology are employed to identify the tempor...     

Temperature variations evidenced by records on the latest spring snowing dates in Hangzhou of eastern China during 1131–1270AD

We collected and verified documentary records of the latest spring snowing dates(LSSD) in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, the statistical correlation between this proxy and February–April mean temperature in Hangzhou was examined, and samples later than the perennial mean of the LSSD during Southern Song Dynasty were transformed into the decadal mean of LSSD by means of Boltzmann function. General characteristics of this reconstructed LSSD series with a 10-year temporal resolution was analyzed, and it was also compared with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for the period 1131–1270. The results and discussion suggested that:(1) Records of the LSSD in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty did not refer to ice pellets and graupels, which had an explicit climate significance(–0.34℃/10 d, R2=0.37, p0.001). However, when this proxy is used to reconstruct temperature changes, all dates should be converted into proleptic Gregorian style and meet the same criterion of "true Qi" as the Chinese traditional calendar after 1929.(2) The decadal mean of LSSD can be effectively estimated by using the forefront of LSSD in the decade on the basis of Boltzmann function, whose extrapolation has a lesser uncertainty than those on the basis of linear models or polynomial models.(3) The spring climate in Hangzhou during 1131–1270 was almost as warm as the period 1951–1980. At the centennial scale, this period can be divided into two phases: the cold 1131–1170 and the warm 1171–1270. In the latter, 1181–1200 and 1221–1240 were two cold intervals at the multi-decadal scale.(4) The reconstructed LSSD series was consistent well with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for 1131–1270, which may reflect the influence on the climate over most regions of China imposed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).     

Paleoclimatic evolution indicated by major geochemical elements from aeolian sediments on the east of Qinghai Lake

As the largest inland lake of China, along with its unique landscape and geographical location, Qinghai Lake has got much attention of the scientists for a long time. The precursors have done substantive researches by using the lake sediment, which deepen our understanding of the climate changes in this region. Although sand dunes and loess sediment are widely distributed around the lake, so far the researches on geochemical elements from aeolian sediment have been less reported. In this paper, we selected a typical aeolian profile on the east of Qinghai Lake. Based on systematic sampling and analysis of seven major geochemical elements, combined with OSL dating and previous researches, this paper discusses climate changes in the Qinghai Lake area since 12.5 ka B.P.. Our conclusions are: (1) Before 12.5 ka B.P., the climate in this region was dry, cold, and accompanied by strong wind-sand activities. (2) During 12.5–11.9 ka B.P., the climate became warm and wet. However, there was an abrupt climate cooling event during 12.2–11.9 ka B.P., which likely corresponded to the Younger Dryas event. (3) During 11.9–8.0 ka B.P., the climate fluctuated greatly and frequently from warm to cold, and three cooling events occurred. (4) During 8.0–2.6 ka B.P., the climate was warm and humid. (5) Since 2.6 ka B.P., similar to the modern climate, the climate was mainly dry and cold.     

Spatiotemporal variations of aridity index over the Belt and Road region under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming scenarios

Aridity index reflects the exchanges of energy and water between the land surface and the atmosphere, and its variation can be used to forecast drought and flood patterns, which makes it of great significance for agricultural production. The ratio of potential evapotranspiration and precipitation is applied to analyse the spatial and temporal distributions of the aridity index in the Belt and Road region under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios on the basis of outputs from four downscaled global climate models. The results show that:(1) Under the 1.5℃ warming scenario, the area-averaged aridity index will be similar to that in 1986–2005(around 1.58), but the changes vary spatially. The aridity index will increase by more than 5% in Central-Eastern Europe, north of West Asia, the monsoon region of East Asia and northwest of Southeast Asia, while it is projected to decrease obviously in the southeast of West Asia. Regarding the seasonal scale, spring and winter will be more arid in South Asia, and the monsoon region of East Asia will be slightly drier in summer compared with the reference period. While, West Asia will be wetter in all seasons, except winter.(2) Relative to 1986–2005, both areal averaged annual potential evapotranspiration and precipitation are projected to increase, and the spatial variation of aridity index will become more obvious as well at the 2.0℃ warming level. Although the aridity index over the entire region will be maintained at approximately 1.57 as that in 1.5℃, the index in Central-Eastern Europe, north of West Asia and Central Asia will grow rapidly at a rate of more than 20%, while that in West Siberia, northwest of China, the southern part of South Asia and West Asia will show a declining trend. At the seasonal scale, the increase of the aridity index in Central-Eastern Europe, Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia and the northern part of Siberia in winter will be obvious, and the monsoon region in East Asia will be drier in both summer and autumn.(3) Under the scenario of an additional 0.5℃ increase in global temperature from 1.5℃ to 2.0℃, the aridity index will increase significantly in Central Asia and north of West Asia but decrease in Southeast Asia and Central Siberia. Seasonally, the aridity index in the Belt and Road region will slightly increase in all other seasons except spring. Central Asia will become drier annually at a rate of more than 20%. The aridity index in South Asia will increase in spring and winter, and that in East Asia will increase in autumn and winter.(4) To changes of the aridity index, the attribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration will vary regionally. Precipitation will be the major influencing factor over southern West Asia, southern South Asia, Central-Eastern Siberia, the non-monsoon region of East Asia and the border between West Asia and Central Asia, while potential evapotranspiration will exert greater effects over Central-Eastern Europe, West Siberia, Central Asia and the monsoon region of East Asia.     

中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应（英文）

The 1998–2012 global warming hiatus has aroused great public interest over the past several years. Based on the air temperature measurements from 622 meteorological stations in China, the temperature response to the global warming hiatus was analyzed at national and regional scales. We found that air temperature changed –0.221℃/10 a during 1998–2012, which was lower than the long-term trend for 1960–1998 by 0.427℃/10 a. Therefore, the warming hiatus in China was more pronounced than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role in the nationwide warming hiatus, contributing 74.13%, while summer contributed the least among the four seasons. Furthermore, the warming hiatus was spatial heterogeneous across different climate conditions in China. Comparing the three geographic zones, the monsoon region of eastern China, arid region of northwestern China, and high frigid region of the Tibetan Plateau, there was significant cooling in eastern and northwestern China. In eastern China, which contributed 53.79%, the trend magnitudes were 0.896℃/10 a in winter and 0.134℃/10 a in summer. In the Tibetan Plateau, air temperature increased by 0.204℃/10 a, indicating a lack of a significant warming hiatus. More broadly, the warming hiatus in China may have been associated with the negative phase of PDO and reduction in sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. Finally, although a warming hiatus occurred in China from 1998 to 2012, air temperature rapidly increased after 2012 and will likely to continuously warm in the next few years.