中国城市碳排放强度的空间溢出效应及驱动因素

采用核密度估计、空间自相关、空间马尔科夫链和面板分位数回归等方法对1992-2013年全国283个城市碳排放强度的空间溢出效应和驱动因素进行了分析。① 核密度估计结果表明,中国城市碳排放强度总体均值下降,差异在逐步缩小。② 空间自相关Moran's I指数表明城市碳排放强度存在显著的空间集聚性且空间集聚性在逐渐增强,但空间集聚水平的变化逐年缩小。③ 空间马尔科夫链分析结果表明：第一,中国城市碳排放强度存在马太效应,低强度与高强度的城市在相邻年份转移过程中呈现维持初始状态的特征。第二,城市碳排放“空间溢出”效应明显,且不同区域背景下溢出效应存在异质性,即若与碳排放强度低的城市为邻,该城市的碳强度能够增加向上转移的概率,反之亦然。④ 面板分位数结果显示：在碳排放强度低的城市,经济增长、技术进步、适当的人口密度起到减排作用;外商投资强度与交通排放是使碳强度增大的主要因素。在碳排放强度高的城市,人口密度是重要的减排因素,技术进步暂时没起减排作用;工业排放、粗放式的资本投资以及城市土地蔓延则是碳强度上升的主要因素。     

中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异、空间溢出效应及影响因素分析（英文）

Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon emissions as well as to formulate policies to address and mitigate climate change. Although the majority of previous studies have explored the driving forces underlying Chinese carbon emissions, few have been carried out at the city-level because of the limited availability of relevant energy consumption statistics. Here, we utilize spatial autocorrelation, Markov-chain transitional matrices, a dynamic panel model, and system generalized distance estimation(Sys-GMM) to empirically evaluate the key determinants of carbon emissions at the city-level based on Chinese remote sensing data collected between 1992 and 2013. We also use these data to discuss observed spatial spillover effects taking into account spatiotemporal lag and a range of different geographical and economic weighting matrices. The results of this study suggest that regional discrepancies in city-level carbon emissions have decreased over time, which are consistent with a marked spatial spillover effect, and a ‘club' agglomeration of high-emissions. The evolution of these patterns also shows obvious path dependence, while the results of panel data analysis reveal the presence of a significant U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP. Data also show that per capita carbon emissions have increased in concert with economic growth in most cities, and that a high-proportion of secondary industry and extensive investment growth have also exerted significant positive effects on city-level carbon emissions across China. In contrast, rapid population agglomeration, improvements in technology, increasing trade openness, and the accessibility and density of roads have all played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions. Thus, in order to reduce emissions, the Chinese government should legislate to inhibit the effects of factors that promote the release of carbon while at the same time acting to encourage those that mitigate this process. On the basis of the analysis presented in this study, we argue that optimizing industrial structures, streamlining extensive investment, increasing the level of technology, and improving road accessibility are all effective approaches to increase energy savings and reduce carbon emissions across China.     

中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异、空间溢出效应及影响因素

基于1992-2013年中国城市遥感模拟反演碳排放数据,采用空间自相关、空间马尔科夫矩阵和动态空间面板数据模型,在同时考虑碳排放的时空滞后效应和不同地理经济空间权重矩阵的条件下,对城市碳排放的演化路径和关键影响因素进行了定量识别和减排政策探讨。研究表明,中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异正逐步缩小,空间上呈现出明显的高排放俱乐部集聚特征,同时碳排放类型演化具有明显的路径依赖特征;面板数据模型估计结果表明经济增长与人均碳排放呈现显著的倒“U”型曲线关系,而绝大多数城市的人均碳排放处于随经济发展而增加的阶段,二产偏重的经济结构和投资的粗放增长共同正向作用于城市碳排放,而人口的集聚效应、技术水平的提升、对外开放度和公路运输强度的增加则共同抑制城市碳排放水平的提高。因此未来要抑制促增因素和发挥促降因素的作用才能有效降低城市碳排放;优化产业结构、精简粗放投资、增加研发强度以及提升公路通达性是未来实现中国城市节能减排的有效途径。     

河北省能源消耗碳排放驱动因素及减排路径分析（英文）

论文分析了河北省二氧化碳的环境库兹涅兹曲线,采用扩展的STIRPAT模型对河北省碳排放驱动因素及减排路径做了深入探讨。研究表明：（1）河北省的产业结构、终端能耗结构与经济增长之间呈复杂的函数关系,其碳排放量与经济增长处于正相关阶段,尚未到达碳排放生态拐点,没有形成EKC曲线,碳排放与经济增长之间的“脱钩”阶段还没有到来;（2）通过碳排放和影响因素之间的定量模型发现,产业结构（第二产业占比）、人均GDP、固定资产投资、人口规模、城镇化率对碳排放贡献最大;改变能源结构使煤炭占比逐年下降,碳减排效果明显;另外,环境规制对碳减排效果明显。（3）建议河北省碳减排重点应围绕控制重工业发展、避免产能过剩、优化产业结构、加速发展清洁能源等方面进行。     

1990年来广东区域发展的空间溢出效应及驱动因素

采用尺度方差、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链和地理加权回归对1990-2010年广东省区域经济发展的溢出效应及其驱动因素进行了时空动态分析。1尺度方差研究表明,在3个尺度分析的基础上发现县级尺度对整个区域经济差异的贡献份额最大,因此是空间溢出效应研究的核心尺度;2核密度估计研究表明,1990-2010年间县域人均GDP差距呈不断扩大趋势,2000-2010年相比于1990-2000年人均GDP差距幅度更大,使得空间溢出更为明显;3空间马尔科夫链研究表明,在县域经济发展过程中存在空间溢出效应,若以较富裕地区为邻,受到的溢出效应是正向的,县域经济向上转移的概率增加,向下转移的概率减小,反之亦然。4空间滞后回归和地理加权回归研究表明,全球化、简政放权和固定资产投资是广东省空间溢出效应的三个核心驱动因素;市场化、城镇化水平和储蓄水平是辅助理解其空间溢出效应的驱动因素。     

中国旅游经济对城市绿色发展的影响及空间溢出效应

在“生态优先、绿色发展”战略背景下,针对旅游经济绿色产业外部性及其空间溢出的科学认识缺乏,论证中国旅游经济能否促进绿色发展并揭示其空间溢出特征具有理论和现实意义。选取绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）作为城市绿色发展水平评价指标;融合多源数据并利用EBM-GML模型测算并分解中国284个地级以上城市2005—2016年GTFP;利用空间分析方法刻画地市尺度下GTFP时空格局及聚类情况;依托空间杜宾模型揭示旅游经济对绿色发展的影响及空间溢出效应。结果表明：① 东部、中部、西部、东北城市GTFP年度均值呈现总体上升态势,但“中部塌陷”特征明显;地市尺度中国GTFP格局与经济版图存在空间错位。② 旅游经济具有良好的绿色发展效应,能够同时促进绿色技术效率和绿色技术进步,进而驱动目的地本地GTFP增长。③ 旅游经济对GTFP存在不显著的正向空间溢出,但对绿色技术效率具有显著正向空间溢出。④ 政策上应加强区域内旅游经济联动发展,构建旅游目的地创新溢出机制,推动旅游目的地与邻地产业分工协同发展,打造旅游业深度参与的区域产业生态圈和综合体等,以期强化中国旅游经济对绿色技术进步的空间溢出。     

中国乡村治理示范村镇空间分布格局及影响因素研究（英文）

村镇治理是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的基本要求,关乎国家乡村振兴战略的实施和国家治理现代化目标的实现。本文以全国2189个乡村治理示范村镇为研究对象,综合运用最邻近点指数法、核密度估计法、网格维数分析法、空间自相关分析法,探索乡村治理示范村镇的空间分布结构与影响因素。研究表明：全国乡村治理示范村镇空间分布趋于集聚分布,空间分异较为明显;乡村治理示范村镇核密度分析在空间上呈现出多个核中心,以及由核中心向四周递减扩散而形成的呈带状分布的次级中心的分布格局;乡村治理示范村镇系统具有明显无标度区,分形特征显著;乡村治理示范村镇空间分布主要受自然和人文因素影响明显,其中自然因素中地形地貌和湖泊水系是主要影响因素;人文因素中社会经济、交通、民族文化是主要影响因素,人口分布的影响不显著。     

空间溢出视角下经济集聚对水污染物排放的影响——基于中国 339 个地级及以上城市数据的实证分析（英文）

Whether economic agglomeration can promote improvement in environmental quality is of great importance not only to China's pollution prevention and control plans but also to its future sustainable development. Based on the COD(Chemical Oxygen Demand) and NH3-N(Ammonia Nitrogen) emissions Database of 339 Cities at the city level in China, this study explores the impact of economic agglomeration on water pollutant emissions, including the differences in magnitude of the impact in relation to city size using an econometric model. The study also examines the spillover effect of economic agglomeration, by conducting univariate and bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results show that economic agglomeration can effectively reduce water pollutant emissions, and a 1% increase in economic agglomeration could lead to a decrease in COD emissions by 0.117% and NH_3-N emissions by 0.102%. Compared with large and megacities, economic agglomeration has a more prominent effect on the emission reduction of water pollution in small-and medium-sized cities. From the perspective of spatial spillover, the interaction between economic agglomeration and water pollutant emissions shows four basic patterns: high agglomeration–high emissions, high agglomeration–low emissions, low agglomeration–high emissions, and low agglomeration–low emissions. The results suggest that the high agglomeration–high emissions regions are mainly distributed in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Shandong Peninsula, and the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration; thus, local governments should consider the spatial spillover effect of economic agglomeration in formulating appropriate water pollutant mitigation policies.     

中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析（英文）

China has witnessed unprecedented urbanization over the past decades.The rapid expansion of urban population has been dominantly contributed by the floating population from rural areas,of which the spatiotemporal patterns,driving forces,and multidimensional effects are scrutinized and evaluated in this study by using the latest national censuses conducted in 2000 and 2010.Analysis based on the county-level data comes to conclusions as follows.The spatial pattern of floating population has remained stable over the first decade of the new century.The top 1%cities with the largest floating population received 45.5% of all migrants in China.As the rapid development of mega-city regions,the coastal concentration areas of floating population tended to geographically united as a whole,whereas the spatial distribution of migrants within each region varied significantly.The migrant concentration area in the Yangtze River Delta was the largest and its expansion was also the most salient.However,the floating population has growingly moved into provincial capitals and other big cities in the inland regions and its gravity center has moved northward for around 110 km during the study period.The spatial pattern of floating population has been formed jointly by the state and market forces in transitional China and the impacts of state forces have been surpassed by those of market forces in the country as a whole.The attractiveness of coastal cities and counties to the floating population comes mainly from the nonagricultural employment opportunities and public services,reflecting that long-distance and long-term migrants have moved coastward not only to gain employment but also to enjoy city life.By contrast,in the central and western regions,places with a higher economic development level and at a higher administrative level are more attractive to floating populations,demonstrating that the state remains to play an important role in allocating economic resources and promoting regional development in inland China.As the main body of new urban residents,the floating population has contributed substantially to the elevation of the urbanization levels of migrant-sending and-receiving places,by 20.0% nd 49.5% respectively.Compared with extensively investigated interprovincial migrants,intra-provincial migrants have higher intention and ability to permanently live in cities and thus might become the main force of China’s urbanization in the coming decades.The internal migration has also reshaped China’s urban system in terms of its hierarchical organization and spatial structure.