国际旅游岛建设的经济增长效应及其影响路径——基于海南的经验分析

利用2010年海南的政策实践作为自然实验,基于1996—2017年中国内地省级面板数据,采用合成控制法测度了国际旅游岛建设的经济增长效应,分析其影响路径。结果表明：1）合成控制法能够很好地拟合国际旅游岛建设实施前海南省的经济增长路径,通过对比国际旅游岛建设前后经济变量的实际值与“反事实”值之差,证实国际旅游岛建设能够有效推动海南地区经济增长;2）国际旅游岛建设确实通过需求侧的消费和投资路径以及供给侧的第三产业发展路径对海南的经济增长产生促进作用。最后依据实证结果提出完善国际旅游岛建设的政策建议,以服务于中国海岛经济发展和海洋强国战略实践。     

第一次世界大战初期德国东亚驻军跨岛链作战的军事地理分析

就军事地理环境而言,当代中国在海洋方向面临的最主要威胁来自环中国岛链的封锁,研究这一限制性地理环境对准备和实施军事活动的影响与相应对策,具有重要的现实意义。第一次世界大战（简称“一战”）初期,德国东亚驻军进行了跨岛链作战的实践,但在日本海军依托岛链和优势兵力的封锁下,其战略目标未能达成,并且出现了军事地理位置上的优劣转换。本文通过对“一战”初期德国东亚驻军跨岛链作战行动的军事地理分析,尝试提出军事地理研究思路、跨学科融合路径和分析框架。本文分析认为,彼时德占青岛虽然具有良好的战略态势和强大的军事力量,但孤悬海外,且缺乏战略纵深;从宏观的区域尺度分析来看,基地与舰队间的联系被岛链分隔,腹背受敌,军事地理上的劣势凸显。但依托岛链进行封锁,需要集结大量兵力,利用对方边缘区内作战力量相对比较薄弱的有利条件,原本实力较弱的德国东亚舰队取得了重大战果,形成反转式的“核心—边缘”结构。本文为中国的海疆安全和海洋强国建设提出了5条建议。     

蓝色经济通道的概念、理论基础及中国维护蓝色经济通道安全的路径

不同于海上交通线和海上战略通道,蓝色经济通道具有安全、政治、经济、地理、文化等多层面的含义,致力于可持续利用海洋资源,实现全人类的可持续发展,重点关注小岛屿发展中国家和沿岸最不发达国家,是一条海上大通道、海上合作平台,而不是具体的交通线、咽喉要道、海峡或海上交通线附近的战略岛屿。蓝色经济通道的海上大通道、海上合作平台内涵决定了其拥有理论基底。复合相互依赖理论、全球海洋治理理论、地理环境理论是其理论基底。安全维度是蓝色经济通道的最基本内涵。维护海上安全是发展蓝色经济的重要保障。     

1895-2016年全球海运网络中的海峡两岸港口运输联系变化

台湾地区与中国大陆隔海相望,海上运输是两岸间货物往来的最主要方式。受国际政治和贸易模式的影响,从19世纪中后期以来,两岸港口运输联系变化剧烈。利用劳合社（Lloyd's）1895-2016年两岸港口间航线的O-D数据,从国家层面和全球层面研究海峡两岸港口运输联系的变化。主要结论为：① 近代开埠至割让给日本之前,台湾地区与大陆的海运联系紧密,厦门港是台湾地区最重要的中转港;日据之后,台湾地区成为日本的原料来源地和商品销售地,台湾地区—日本—中国大陆形成三角运输联系;两岸对峙后,两岸港口运输联系切断,台湾地区—美国—日本形成三角贸易网络;1979年后,香港港成为两岸运输联系的最重要中转港,两岸直航后,台湾地区与大陆间的港口运输联系在广度和深度上不断拓展。② 台湾地区区位优势明显,但由于是海岛,陆向腹地狭小,因此充分利用区位优势和地缘优势,把区域经济增长中心作为自身的海向腹地,以形成紧密的海上运输联系是台湾地区经济持续发展的关键。改善与中国大陆之间的关系、分享中国大陆发展的机遇、推动海峡两岸的港口运输联系是台湾地区的“天时”与“人和”。     

Where Have All the Beaches Gone? Coastal Erosion In The Tropics

From a physical geography perspective, tropical coasts are characterised by coral reefs, mangroves and carbonate beaches on atolls and low reef islands. They face threats not only from sea level rise, but also from human activities that destroy mangroves, degrade coral reefs and accelerate beach erosion. Physical conditions in the tropics are suitable for the ideal tourist beach. Conceptually, the tourist coast can be considered as the integration of a physical system (the coast) and a human system (tourism). Studies have been carried out on various types of tourist coasts in Southeast Asia. For many atoll island states, sea level rise is more than just a threat to their tourism; it also determines their survival. In recent years, assessments of their vulnerability and adaptation have favoured a more integrative approach of physical and human sciences. Hopefully, this should result in a better analytical tropical geography that could play an important role in reducing coastal erosion and assist the small island states.     

A Review of “Urban Climate Change Crossroads”

This article examines the former location-based social medium Brightkite, over its three-year life span, based on the concept of natural cities. The term natural cities refers to spatially clustered geographic events, such as the agglomerated patches aggregated from individual social media users’ locations. We applied the head/tail division rule to derive natural cities, based on the fact that there are far more low-density areas than high-density areas on the Earth's surface. More specifically, we generated a triangulated irregular network, made up of individual unique user locations, and then categorized small triangles (smaller than an average) as natural cities for the United States (mainland) on a monthly basis. The concept of natural cities provides a powerful means to develop new insights into the evolution of real cities, because there are virtually no data available to track the history of cities across their entire life spans and at very fine spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, natural cities can act as a good proxy of real cities, in the sense of understanding underlying interactions, at a global level, rather than of predicting cities, at an individual level. Apart from the data produced and the contributed methods, we established new insights into the structure and dynamics of natural cities; for example, the idea that natural cities evolve in nonlinear manners at both spatial and temporal dimensions.     

北京城区的降水与湿度分析

本文通过对1963—1987年北京城、郊区测点的降水和相对湿度资料的对比分析,发现北京城区夏、秋季存在“干岛”现象,而冬、春季却存在明显的“湿岛”现象。城区四季都存在雨岛,雨岛现象夏季最明显。     

THE ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY OF CARIBBEAN ISLAND NATIONS*

ABSTRACT. Within the hazards‐ and disaster‐research community consensus exists as to factors that magnify or attenuate the effects of extreme natural events on local places. But less agreement and understanding exist concerning the methods or techniques for comparing hazard vulnerability within or between places, especially small‐island developing states. Using two Caribbean nations, Saint Vincent and Barbados, as study sites, we asked which island has the greater level of hazard vulnerability, and why. Results indicate that, although neither island has a large portion of its population living in extremely hazardous locations, Barbados has many more residents in risk‐prone areas. The methods used in this research provide valuable tools for local emergency managers in assessing vulnerability, especially through the delineation of highly vulnerable hot spots. They can also help donor organizations interested in vulnerability reduction on islands use their resources more efficiently.     

Linguistics,geography, and the potential of Australian island toponymies

Australian placename studies have focused on documenting toponymic histories and issues of concern mainly for placename taxonomy and etymology. Language-external factors such as geographical and environmental conditions have not been of great interest to Australian toponymists. This article assesses the role of geographical and environmental constriction of island places on their toponymy. It considers whether or not island locations breed ‘insular toponymies’ or placename histories inaccessible and not readily accessible to outsider researchers. The case studies are Norfolk Island, South Pacific, and Dudley Peninsula, South Australia, two island environments within political Australia. The results demonstrate that the degree of insularity of the toponymies of the two island environments is driven more by geographical and social factors than linguistic elements. The results put forward several ways in which geographers, linguists, historians, toponymists, and Australian studies scholars could work together and collaborate to better understand Australian island places.     

Construing and constructing the South China Sea beyond state-led environmentalism: Vernacularizing geographical,geopolitical and sociotechnical imaginaries of territory

During the 2010s, the South China Sea (SCS) became a geopolitical flashpoint over the sovereignty of the Paracels and Spratlys. China envisioned its transformation of coral reefs into military bases and island cities as an SCS ‘green construction’ project. This article analyses how the SCS is discursively construed and practically constructed as maritime national territory, by mobilizing fishing legacies and extending state limits through ‘state-led environmentalism’ rhetoric. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in China, I show that state-led environmentalism is a hierarchical process that intermittently co-opts and excludes local populations to advance the state's territorial ambitions, which are anchored in geographical, geopolitical and socio-technical imaginaries of ‘maritime civilization’. Yet, I also show that in this process, the SCS emerges as spaces of vernacularized political claims. Thus, I argue that territory is not only a political technology of control but also vernacular practice through which universalizing discourses— whether on the Exclusive Economic Zone regime, sovereignty or nature—are adapted and modified.     

“THIS TERRITORY WAS NOT EMPTY”: PACIFIC POSSIBILITIES

ABSTRACT. Narratives concerning Pacific Ocean territories are often historically derived from European and American mainland visions of great, empty oceans dotted with deserted and uninhabited islands. However, research by indigenous and outlander scholars, along with struggles for political and cultural autonomy in the Pacific, has brought attention to vital island communities and 6has raised questions about a Pacific‐island way of understanding the world. This understanding is traced through scholarly and artistic engagements with history, island‐community studies, and navigational philosophies and is framed by a growing theoretical literature on epistemologies of place from the disciplines of geography and oceanography.     

Voronoi tessellation on the ellipsoidal earth for vector data

Voronoi tessellation, and its dual the Delaunay triangulation, provide a cohesive framework for the study and interpretation of phenomena of geographical space in two and three dimensions. The planar and spherical solutions introduce errors in the positional accuracy of both Voronoi vertices and Voronoi edges due to errors in distance computations and the path connecting two locations with planar lines or great circle arcs instead of geodesics. For most geospatial applications the introduction of the above errors is insignificant or tolerable. However, for applications where the accuracy is of utmost importance, the ellipsoidal model of the Earth must be used. Characteristically, the introduction of any positional error in the delimitation of maritime zones and boundaries results in increased maritime space for one state at the expense of another. This is a situation that may, among others, have a serious impact on the financial activities and the relations of the states concerned. In the context of previous work on maritime delimitation we show that the Voronoi diagram constitutes the ideal solution for the development of an automated methodology addressing the problem in its entirety. Due to lack of a vector methodology for the generation of Voronoi diagram on the ellipsoid, the aforementioned solution was constrained by the accuracy of existing approaches. In order to fill this gap, in this paper we deal with the inherent attributes of the ellipsoidal model of the Earth, e.g. the fact that geodesics are open lines, and we elaborate on a methodology for the generation of the Voronoi diagram on the ellipsoid for a set of points in vector format. The resulting Voronoi diagram consists of vertices with positional accuracy that is only bounded by the user needs and edges that are comprised of geodesics densified with vertices equidistant to their generators. Finally, we present the implementation of the proposed algorithm in the Python programming language and the results of two case studies, one on the formation of closest service areas and one on maritime boundaries delimitation, with the positional accuracy set to 1 cm.     

Climate change and community resilience in Samoa

Being resilient in the face of climate change seems especially important for island societies, which face the effects of rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, changing wind patterns and sea level rise. To date, most studies of adaptation and resilience among Pacific island communities have used indicators and methods rooted in Western science and neo-classical economics. These have been criticized as being locally irrelevant and inadequate to appreciate the dynamic nature and social structures of island communities and their capacity to adapt. This paper challenges the paradigm that defines resilience as a return to equilibrium, by using a non-equilibrium, cultural ecological lens. The non-equilibrium view of resilience sees the social systems of island nations as highly dynamic and undergoing persistent adaptation in the face of changing environmental factors. Field-based research undertaken in eight villages in Samoa found that, through constant exposure to environmental change over extended periods of time, communities have become resilient and are in a position to adapt to future changes. In developing future policy in relation to climate change, Pacific island governments need to develop a more nuanced understanding of islanders’ perceptions and historical actions in the context of both their physical locations and their dynamic socio-cultural systems.     

岭南疍民人口迁移的历史过程与空间特征

疍民人口迁移是疍民文化传播的主要载体,通过历史文献分析、实地调查等方法研究发现,在经济机会、生存条件、政治变革等因素的影响下,岭南疍民人口以珠江三角洲为核心,呈现辐射式和跳跃式的迁移规律,其主要迁移目的地为岭南沿海及东南亚等地,并在岭南各地形成不同规模的疍民人口板块。同时,疍民人口也呈现往城镇汇集的历史过程,其方向是从河流的上游往下游、从沿海到陆地、从农村到城市,其结果是疍民的人口分布呈现“板块状、带状、弧形状”的分布特点,同时文化个性也逐步消失,并朝与当地趋同的方向发展,这对疍民文化的传承和发展提出了严峻挑战。     

干旱区地表温度和热岛效应演变研究——以宁夏沿黄城市带为例

宁夏沿黄城市带位于宁夏东北部,不仅是干旱地区地理研究的重点区域,也是宁夏经济发展的核心区域。基于2000—2018年的MODIS地表温度、土地覆盖类型以及植被覆盖率数据,通过计算热岛比例指数 (URI),利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验及Sen’s斜率估计法,对宁夏沿黄城市带近20 a白天和夜间的地表温度（LST）和热岛效应时间变化进行分析。结果表明：（1） 近20 a来,宁夏沿黄城市带大部分地区[WTBX]LST变化不显著,但在植被覆盖率增加区域,白天LST显著减小而夜间LST显著上升;植被覆盖率减小区域与之相反;夜间LST[WTBZ]变化幅度强于白天。（2） 宁夏沿黄城市带的热岛效应通常在白天较弱、在夜间较强;白天和夜间时刻的城市热岛效应在一年内呈现不同的季节变化特点,白天春冬较强,夜间夏季较强;过去近20 a,宁夏沿黄城市带白天热岛效应呈现稍微减弱趋势,夜间热岛效应呈现稍微增强趋势,但变化趋势均不显著。（3） 从植被覆盖率和地物类型两个影响因素的研究表明,植被覆盖率是影响地表温度变化的重要因素,城建区与郊区主要地物温差的改变是城市热岛强度变化的重要原因。从长时间序列变化的角度详细分析干旱区城市热岛的特征和变化原因,可为干旱区城市热岛带来的环境问题治理提供参考,也为研究干旱区热岛提供了借鉴。     

Kiribati: an environmental ‘perfect storm’

Recent environmental discourses and headlines on small island developing states (SIDS) have heralded the grave and impending threats of global warming and associated sea-level rise. These are undoubtedly significant challenges for SIDS, including atoll nations such as Kiribati. Nevertheless, securing small island state futures also requires a renewed commitment to addressing the obvious and immediate threats of urbanisation, pollution and sanitation. Looking at pressures of development on freshwater, this article argues that the future survival of small island states and their societies also greatly depends on managing the impacts of development. Approaches which can concurrently strengthen the resilience of communities and their ecosystems will result in mutual benefits for both sustainable development and climate change adaptation.     

Learning where to offend: Effects of past on future burglary locations

Informed by a growing literature on space-time patterns of repeat and near repeat burglary victimization, a crime location choice model was used to test whether burglars are attracted to areas they previously targeted. Using data in 3337 detected burglaries from one UK police force, and accounting for the distance to the offender's residence, and for other factors that make target areas attractive to burglars, it was demonstrated that burglars were more likely to commit a burglary in an area they had targeted before. This was particularly the case if the prior burglary was (very) recent. Areas near to those in which burglaries had been committed were also more likely to be selected.     

长山群岛区域发展的地理基础与差异因素研究

从海岛区域陆海面积比较、海岛生态系统组成特点、群岛区域基础设施共享可能性、群岛区域产业竞争力等四个方面具体分析了群岛区域差异的特殊地理基础。通过比较具体的分析了在群岛区域内部各海岛乡镇间存在的经济发展水平、人口分布、海洋水产业、海上交通运输及财政投资上的差异。认为,①技术进步是改善海岛区域发展环境的前提条件;②政策是形成海岛间差异的重要影响因素③自然资源要素对群岛区域的影响仍然十分明显;④区位条件对海岛的影响在加剧。研究结果对指导长山群岛区域发展有重要现实意义,同时也谋求把区域发展的理论应用到群岛这类特殊区域的研究上。     

基于地图视角的北极海洋权益现状研究

明确各国北极海洋权益现状是我国未来北极活动的基础。本研究根据相关文献及图集资料,基于地图视角,对环北极国家的专属经济区划界、外大陆架申请、海洋保护区建立等方面进行定量化、空间化的分析,以此反映北冰洋海洋权益基本情况。结合《联合国海洋法公约》《公海公约》《大陆架公约》《领海及毗连区公约》等相关法律政策,预测北极海洋权益未来发展趋势并探究其对我国未来北极活动的影响,为我国未来北极策略制定提供参考。结果表明,沿岸国家对北冰洋活动的限制程度具有一定的规律性:在经向上,呈现出显著的纬度地带性,即限制程度随着纬度增高而逐渐减弱;在深度方向,对大陆架的控制范围大于对其上覆水域的控制范围。     

“21世纪海上丝绸之路”航运服务业网络格局研究

在“一带一路”倡议下,发展航运服务业对于巩固与提升中国在全球航运网络中的地位具有重要意义。构建103家跨国公司在“21世纪海上丝绸之路（海丝之路）”沿线1 054个城市的分布数据库,分析7种航运服务业在“海丝之路”沿线的网络特征。研究表明：① “海丝之路”沿线航运服务业网络的层级分布特征明显,处于第一层级的均为亚洲城市,说明亚洲航运服务业在航运服务业网络中地位重要。② 在“海丝之路”这一层面,伦敦、香港、新加坡等城市和地区构成大的联系三角,在中国层面,上海、香港、北京构成小的联系三角。③ 高端航运服务业主要分布在欧洲城市,亚洲城市在中端航运服务业方面占据重要地位,在低端航运服务业方面,非洲城市在仓储服务业表现突出,亚洲和欧洲城市则在船舶修造业实力雄厚。④ 高端航运服务业往往受城市的历史、文化、语言、法律、制度影响较大,对地方的根植性较强,倾向于首都等内陆城市,而中低端航运服务业主要依托于货物运输,受自然条件和区位条件等因素的影响较大,往往随货物运输转移而转移,倾向于分布在港口城市。