发挥海洋水文气象资料优势,加快北海南珠产业发展

为了加快南珠产业的发展,对北海市沿海的地理环境、气候特征及水文条件进行分析,提出了如何加快南珠产业发展的对策。     

甘南州气象部门产业发展思考

甘南州气象部门产业发展思考姚玉璧（甘南州气象局合作７４７０００）引言发展气象产业是适应市场经济体制，增强自身活力和自我发展能力，加快气象事业发展的必由之路。中国气象局已将气象产业列入气象事业的重要组成部分，并制定了相应的发展战略。省局也制定了全省产业...     

对本省气象科技服务与产业发展的若干思考

大力发展气象科技服务与产业,是新形势下本省气象事业大发展的关键。本在分析本省气象科技服务与产业发展现状的基础上,指出了主要制约因素,提出了笔对加快发展的若干思考。     

乘借产业会议东风加快气象产业发展步伐

乘借产业会议东风加快气象产业发展步伐柴凤岐（长治市气象局０４６０１１）参加这次会议使我们深深感到会议召开的非常及时和非常必要。我们的主要收获：一是解放思想，提高认识。产业发展不仅仅是气象工作的一个组成部门，而且必须上升到发展产业是“科教兴国”和可持续...     

利用气候优势,加快农业产业化进程

分析了玉林市的气候优势,及对发展各种特产,进行产业化经营的影响,并提出发展优质产业,加快农业产业化步伐的建议。     

利用气候优势,加快农业产业化进程

分析了玉林市的气候优势,及对发展各种特产,进行产业化经营的影响,并提出发展优质产业,加快农业产业化步伐的建议。     

新时期气象产业发展的思考

1　解放思想,充分认识发展产业的重要性解放思想,实事求是,与时俱进是开展一切工作的出发点。就气象部门产业发展而言,要利用好现有的政策,充分发挥人才占有、资源占有、技术及设备占有和区位占有的相对优势,积极创造条件,拓展服务领域,提高服务水平,加快发展步伐,迅速融入到飞     

开展政策性农业保险气象服务的思考

农业是稳社会、安天下的基础产业,也是一个弱质产业,自然灾害风险是种养业农民利益得失乃至整个产业能否持续发展的“焦点”。连续5年的中央1号文件、“十一五”规划都对政策性农业保险发展提出明确要求,党的十七届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于推进农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定》中提出“发展农村保险事业,健全政策性农业保险制度,加快建立农业再保险和巨灾风险分散机制”的要求。     

气象事业在三次产业中的定位和发展研究

本文运用产业经济学的基本原理，通过分析产业的形成和分类，揭示了三次产业的发展趋势；运用翔实的统计资料，对我国三次产业的产值结构所处阶段和呈现出的产业结构类型进行了具体分析；系统地研究了我国从建国初期到改革开放以来的产业发展政策以及加快发展第三产业的政策和措施。明确了气象事业在三次产业中的定位，即气象事业属于第三产业中的科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业门类，专业技术服务业类。研究了国家发展气象事业的政策和法规；并对气象事业发展的影响因素作了系统分析，进而提出了争取国家的政策支持，完善双重领导管理体制，在为发展支柱产业提供气象服务中求得事业发展，树立和落实科学发展观、全面建设“四个一流”的气象事业发展对策。     

浅论省级气象科技产业实体运行机制的建立

随着气象事业结构战略性调整进程的日益加快 ,以气象行政管理、基本气象业务、气象科技服务与产业三部分组成的气象事业结构新的基本框架已渐成雏形。从气象事业发展的现状和未来趋势看 ,气象科技服务与产业将成为气象事业不可或缺的重要组成部分 ,其发展是气象部门逐步走向市场和开辟更广阔服务领域的基础 ,前景尤为可观。尽管目前气象部门自身对已存在并发展了多年的气象产业实体的性质没有定论 ,但其与市场经济行为紧密相连。显然 ,事业单位的管理方式不能适应其发展的需要 ,所以建立适应气象产业实体良性发展的运行机制是摆在广大气象科…     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.