Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada

We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.     

Lateglacial and Holocene relative sea‐level changes and first evidence for the Storegga tsunami in Sutherland,Scotland

We reconstruct one of the longest relative sea‐level (RSL) records in north‐west Europe from the north coast of mainland Scotland, using data collected from three sites in Loch Eriboll (Sutherland) that we combine with other studies from the region. Following deglaciation, RSL fell from a Lateglacial highstand of +6?8 m OD (Ordnance Datum = ca. mean sea level) at ca. 15 k cal a BP to below present, then rose to an early Holocene highstand and remained at ca. +1 m OD between ca. 7 and 3 k cal a BP, before falling to present. We find no evidence for significant differential Holocene glacio‐isostatic adjustment between sites on the north‐west (Lochinver, Loch Laxford), north (Loch Eriboll) and north‐east (Wick) coast of mainland Scotland. This suggests that the region was rapidly deglaciated and there was little difference in ice loads across the region. From one site at the head of Loch Eriboll we report the most westerly sedimentary evidence for the early Holocene Storegga tsunami on the Scottish mainland. The presence of the Storegga tsunami in Loch Eriboll is predicted by a tsunami wave model, which suggests that the tsunami impacted the entire north coast of Scotland and probably also the Atlantic coastline of north‐west Scotland.

     

Geological Indicators of Large Tsunami in Australia

Tsunami waves can produce four general categories of depositional and erosional signatures that differentiate them from storm waves. Combinations of items from these categories uniquely define the impact of palaeo-tsunami on the coastal landscape. The largest palaeo-tsunami waves in Australia swept sediment across the continental shelf and obtained flow depths of 15–20 m at the coastline with velocities in excess of 10 m ^-1. In New South Wales, along the cliffs of Jervis Bay, waves reachedelevations of more than 80 m above sea-level with evidence of flow depths in excess of 10 m. These waves swept 10 km inland over the Shoalhaven delta. In northern Queensland, boulders more than 6 m in diameter and weighing 286 tonnes were tossed alongshore above cyclone storm wave limits inside the Great Barrier Reef. In Western Australia waves overrode and breached 60 m high hills up to 5 km inland. Shell debris and cobbles can be found within deposits mapped as dunes, 30 km inland. The array of signatures provide directional information about the origin of the tsunami and, when combined with radiocarbon dating, indicate thatat least one and maybe two catastrophic events have occurred during the last 1000 years along these three coasts. Only the West Australian coast hashistorically been affected by notable tsunami with maximum run-up elevations of 4–6 m. Palaeo-tsunami have been an order of magnitude greater than this. These palaeo-tsunami are produced most likely by large submarine slides on the continental slope or the impactof meteorites with the adjacent ocean.     

Sedimentology of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra tsunami deposits in eastern India (Tamil Nadu) and Kenya

The December 26, 2004 Sumatra tsunami caused severe damage at the coasts of the Indian ocean. We report results of a sedimentological study of tsunami run-up parameters and the sediments laid down by the tsunami at the coast of Tamil Nadu, India, and between Malindi and Lamu, Kenya. In India, evidence of three tsunami waves is preserved on the beaches in the form of characteristic debris accumulations. We measured the maximum run-up distance at 580 m and the maximum run-up height at 4.85 m. Flow depth over land was at least 3.5 m. The tsunami deposited an up to 30 cm thick blanket of moderately well to well-sorted coarse and medium sand that overlies older beach deposits or soil with an erosional unconformity. The sand sheet thins inland without a decrease of grain-size. The deposits consist frequently of three layers. The lower one may be cross-bedded with foresets dipping landward and indicating deposition during run-up. The overlying two sand layers are graded or parallel-laminated without indicators of current directions. Thus, it remains undecided whether they formed during run-up or return flow. Thin dark laminae rich in heavy minerals frequently mark the contacts between successive layers. Benthic foraminifera indicate an entrainment of sediment by the tsunami from water depths less than ca. 30 m water depth. On the Indian shelf these depths are present at distances of up to 5 km from the coast. In Kenya only one wave is recorded, which attained a run-up height of 3 m at a run-up distance of ca. 35 m from the tidal water line at the time of the tsunami impact. Only one layer of fine sand was deposited by the tsunami. It consists predominantly of heavy minerals supplied to the sea by a nearby river. The sand layer thins landward with a minor decrease in grain-size. Benthic foraminifera indicate an entrainment of sediment by the tsunami from water depths less than ca. 30 m water depth, reaching down potentially to ca. 80 m. The presence of only one tsunami-related sediment layer in Kenya, but three in India, reflects the impact of only one wave at the coast of Kenya, as opposed to several in India. Grain-size distributions in the Indian and Kenyan deposits are mostly normal to slightly positively skewed and indicate that the detritus was entrained by the tsunami from well sorted pre-tsunami deposits in nearshore, swash zone and beach environments.     

Run-up and Inundation Pattern Developed During the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 Along the Coast of Tamilnadu (India)

The tsunami run-up, inundation and damage pattern observed along the coast of Tamilnadu (India) during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 is documented in this paper. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries, bordering the Indian Ocean. Along the coast of Indian mainland, the damage was caused by the tsunami only. Largest tsunami run-up and inundation was observed along the coast of Nagapattinam district and was about 10–12 m and 3.0 km, respectively. The measured inundation data were strongly scattered in direct relationship to the morphology of the seashore and the tsunami run-up. Lowest tsunami run-up and inundation was measured along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram districts of Tamilnadu in the Palk Strait. The presence of shadow of Sri Lanka, the interferences of direct/receded waves with the reflected waves from Sri Lanka and Maldive Islands and variation in the width of continental shelf were the main cause of large variation in tsunami run-up along the coast of Tamilnadu.     

Detailing the impact of the Storegga Tsunami at Montrose,Scotland

The Storegga tsunami, dated in Norway to 8150±30 cal. years BP, hit many countries bordering the North Sea. Run-ups of >30 m occurred and 1000s of kilometres of coast were impacted. Whilst recent modelling successfully generated a tsunami wave train, the wave heights and velocities, it under-estimated wave run-ups. Work presented here used luminescence to directly date the Storegga tsunami deposits at the type site of Maryton, Aberdeenshire in Scotland. It also undertook sedimentological characterization to establish provenance, and number and relative power of the tsunami waves. Tsunami model refinement used this to better understand coastal inundation. Luminescence ages successfully date Scottish Storegga tsunami deposits to 8100±250 years. Sedimentology showed that at Montrose, three tsunami waves came from the northeast or east, over-ran pre-existing marine sands and weathered igneous bedrock on the coastal plain. Incorporation of an inundation model predicts well a tsunami impacting on the Montrose Basin in terms of replicate direction and sediment size. However, under-estimation of run-up persisted requiring further consideration of palaeotopography and palaeo-near-shore bathymetry for it to agree with sedimentary evidence. Future model evolution incorporating this will be better able to inform on the hazard risk and potential impacts for future high-magnitude submarine generated tsunami events.     

Reconstructing the pattern and depth of flow onshore in a palaeotsunami from associated deposits

The widespread sheets of fine particulate sediment frequently deposited by tsunami constitute valuable evidence from which to reconstruct tsunami inundation. This is illustrated with evidence from three sites near Montrose, in eastern Scotland, U.K., where a horizon of mainly sand, laid down during the Holocene Storegga Slide palaeotsunami of circa 8000 BP is examined. The horizon is remarkably consistent in its distribution, morphology, stratigraphy, and particle size characteristics. These properties allow inferences to be made on the nature of tsunami flow onshore and run-up. It is suggested that estimates can be made of the possible depth of water involved from the characteristics of the sediment, and thus of the extent of inundation involved in the tsunami at these sites.     

Revealing effect of bathymetry over tsunami run-up through factor analysis

The east coast of Tamil Nadu, particularly Chennai–Nagapattinam was worstly affected by the 2004 tsunami. Run-up shows remarkable variation of 2–8 m with maximum at Cuddalore port and minimum at Marina beach. Factors like width of dislocation, source distance, orientation of the coastline, and bathymetry guide tsunami surge. While most of the parameters are similar in characteristics for the entire coast, it is presumed that variation in bathymetry have played an imperative role in guiding run-up. Based on gradient bathymetry, up to 50 km off the coast was classified into five classes, viz shallow, moderate, and steep continental slope and continental shelf. Statistical analysis was performed between offshore bathymetry and run-up. The results clearly indicate that moderate slopes have guided tsunami to attain maximum height. While steeper slope have acted as barriers and gentle slopes have shoaled tsunami surge resulting in reduced run-up height. The study offers early but potentially meaningful guidance on the role of bathymetry on run-up.     

Identification and possible recurrence of an oversized tsunami on the Pacific coast of northern Japan

Geological evidence of severe tsunami inundation has been discovered in northern Japan. In the dune fields of Shimokita, in northernmost Tohoku, we have found two distinctive sand layers that are tsunami deposits. The run-up height of >20 m and inland inundation of at least 1.4 km are notably larger than any known historical case in Japan. The tsunami-genic earthquake that resulted in these deposits is thought to have taken place in the Kuril Forearc-Trench system nearly 700 years ago. The recurrence interval of major tsunamis originating in the Kuril subduction zone is about 400 years. Given that the most recent unusually large earthquake took place in AD 1611 (corresponding to the Keicho earthquake tsunami), the findings presented here increase the potential and hazard for an outsized tsunami striking the Pacific coast of northern Japan.     

Far-field impact and coastal sedimentation associated with the 2006 Java tsunami in West Australia

A detailed assessment of the impact of a far-field tsunami on the Australian coastline was carried out in the Steep Point region of Western Australia following the July 17 2006 Java tsunami. Tsunami inundation and run-up were mapped on the basis of eyewitness accounts, debris lines, vegetation damage and the occurrence of recently deposited fish, starfish, corals and sea urchins well above high-tide mark. A topographic survey using kinematic GPS with accuracies of 0.02 m in the horizontal and 0.04 m in the vertical recorded flow depths of between 1 and 2 m, inundation of up to 200 m inland, and a maximum recorded run-up of 7.9 m AHD (Australian Height Datum). The tsunami impacted the sparsely populated Steep Point coastline close to low tide. It caused widespread erosion in the littoral zone, extensive vegetation damage and destroyed several campsites. Eyewitnesses reported three waves in the tsunami wave train, the second being the largest. A sand sheet, up to 14 cm thick and tapering landwards over 200 m, was deposited over coastal dunes. The deposits are predominantly composed of moderately well-sorted, medium-grained carbonate sand with some gravel and organic debris. A basal unconformity defines the boundary between tsunami sediments and underlying aeolian dune sand. Evidence for up to three individual waves is preserved as normally graded sequences mantled by layers of dark grey, organic-rich fine silty sand. Given the strong wind regimes in the area and the similarity of the underlying dune deposits to the tsunami sediments, it is likely that seasonal erosion will remove all traces of these sediment sheets within years to decades.     

Tsunami risk in northwestern Europe: a Holocene example

A thin, regionally extensive, laterally persistent sand layer is present within the Holocene coastal sequences of eastern Scotland, dated to 7000 yr BP. It is proposed that this deposit was caused by a tsunami wave generated by a catastrophic submarine landslide (the Second Storegga Slide) on the Norwegian continental slope. The distribution of this tsunami deposit indicates that the wave penetrated at least 2 km beyond the contemporary coastline and a minimum of 4 m above the contemporary high-water mark. Although the frequency of tsunamis may be low in this region their effects should be considered for very long-term or very sensitive strategic developments at coastal sites.     

First indication of Storegga tsunami deposits from East Greenland

A 2.73 m long sediment sequence from Loon Lake, located at 18 m a.s.l. on outer Geographical Society Ø, East Greenland, was investigated for its chronology and changes in physical and biogeochemical properties, macrofossils, and grain‐size distribution. The predominance of marine fossils throughout the sequence, dated by ¹⁴C AMS to between 8630 and 7535 cal. yr BP, shows that the Loon Lake at that time was a marine basin, which according to existing sea‐level curves was about 15–35 m deep. The sequence mainly consists of fine grained homogeneous sediments, which are interrupted by a 0.72 m thick sandy horizon with erosive basis and distinct fluctuations in the grain‐size distribution and in the physical and biogeochemical properties. According to the radiocarbon dates, this sandy horizon was deposited after 8500–8300 cal. yr BP and is interpreted as originating from the Storegga tsunami. The record from Loon Lake provides the first indication of Storegga tsunami deposits from East Greenland. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GPR studies over the tsunami affected Karaikal beach,Tamil Nadu,south India

In this study, results of GPR profiling related to mapping of subsurface sedimentary layers at tsunami affected Karaikal beach are presented . A 400 MHz antenna was used for profiling along 262 m stretch of transect from beach to backshore areas with penetration of about 2.0 m depth (50 ns two-way travel time). The velocity analysis was carried out to estimate the depth information along the GPR profile. Based on the significant changes in the reflection amplitude, three different zones are marked and the upper zone is noticed with less moisture compared to other two (saturated) zones. The water table is noticed to vary from 0.5 to 0.75 m depth (12–15 ns) as moving away from the coastline. Buried erosional surface is observed at 1.5 m depth (40–42 ns), which represents the limit up to which the extreme event acted upon. In other words, it is the depth to which the tsunami sediments have been piled up to about 1.5 m thickness. Three field test pits were made along the transect and sedimentary sequences were recorded. The sand layers, especially, heavy mineral layers, recorded in the test pits indicate a positive correlation with the amplitude and velocity changes in the GPR profile. Such interpretation seems to be difficult in the middle zone due to its water saturation condition. But it is fairly clear in the lower zone located just below the erosional surface where the strata is comparatively more compact. The inferences from the GPR profile thus provide a lucid insight to the subsurface sediment sequences of the tsunami sediments in the Karaikal beach.     

Holocene evolution of an estuary on a tectonically rising coast: the Pakarae River locality, eastern North Island, New Zealand

Estuarine and beach deposits in the vicinity of the present coastline at Pakarae River record the infilling of an estuary and subsequent development of a sequence of seven marine terraces during Holocene time.

At the maximum of the last glaciation about 18,000 years ago the shoreline at the ancestral Pakarae River was approximately 20 km east of the present shoreline. By about 9000 years BP the sea had transgressed across most of that coastal plain to lie within a few hundred metres of the base of the present coastal hills. Seventeen radiocarbon ages from estuarine deposits record the overall rise in post-glacial sea level, but in the period c. 9500-7000 yrs BP there are reversals to the overall rising trend. Between 9500 and 8500 yrs BP there appears to have been a eustatic fall in sea level of at least 4 m. This observation is supported by data from several other localities around New Zealand. Maximum transgression occurred about 6500–7000 yrs BP when the sea reached the base of hillslopes and an extensive estuary existed behind a barrier bar.

Since that time the barrier bar disappeared, probably due to stranding in an uplift event, and the coastline advanced progressively outward toward its present position. Coastal progradation (sea level regression) and subsequent erosion have occurred in association with episodic large earthquakes at about 6700, 5400, 3910, 2450, 1570, 1000 and 600 yrs BP. The present distribution of terraces has been influenced by coastal erosion, which has removed all trace of some terraces from some areas, and river erosion has modified the marine terraces near the river.     

A 3-tier tsunami vulnerability assessment technique for the north-west coast of Peninsular Malaysia

The 2004 tsunami that struck the Sumatra coast gave a warning sign to Malaysia that it is no longer regarded as safe from a future tsunami attack. Since the event, the Malaysian Government has formulated its plan of action by developing an integrated tsunami vulnerability assessment technique to determine the vulnerability levels of each sector along the 520-km-long coastline of the north-west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The scope of assessment is focused on the vulnerability of the physical characteristics of the coastal area, and the vulnerability of the built environment in the area that includes building structures and infrastructures. The assessment was conducted in three distinct stages which stretched across from a macro-scale assessment to several local-scale and finally a micro-scale assessment. On a macro-scale assessment, Tsunami Impact Classification Maps were constructed based on the results of the tsunami propagation modelling of the various tsunami source scenarios. At this stage, highly impacted areas were selected for an assessment of the local hazards in the form of local flood maps based on the inundation modelling output. Tsunami heights and flood depths obtained from these maps were then used to produce the Tsunami Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) maps. These maps recognize sectors within the selected areas that are highly vulnerable to a maximum tsunami run-up and flood event. The final stage is the development of the Structural Vulnerability Index (SVI) maps, which may qualitatively and quantitatively capture the physical and economic resources that are in the tsunami inundation zone during the worst-case scenario event. The results of the assessment in the form of GIS-based Tsunami-prone Vulnerability Index (PVI and SVI) maps are able to differentiate between the various levels of vulnerability, based on the tsunami height and inundation, the various levels of impact severity towards existing building structures, property and land use, and also indicate the resources and human settlements within the study area. Most importantly, the maps could help planners to establish a zoning scheme for potential coastline development based on its sensitivity to tsunami. As a result, some recommendations on evacuation routes and tsunami shelters in the potentially affected areas were also proposed to the Government as a tool for relief agencies to plan for safe evacuation.     

Global tsunami deposits database

The National Geophysical Data Center and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology provide integrated access to historical tsunami event, deposit, and proxy data. Historical events are important for understanding the frequency and intensity of relatively recent tsunamis. Deposit data collected during post-tsunami field surveys provide information on tsunami erosion, sedimentation, flow depths, inundation, and run-up. Deposit data from prehistoric tsunami events extend the record to pre-recorded times, constrain tsunami recurrence intervals, and estimate the minimum magnitude of tsunami inundation. Proxies indicate that an event capable of producing a tsunami occurred, but are not direct evidence of a tsunami. All of these data are used to develop tsunami hazard assessments, provide guidance to warning centers, validate models, inform community preparedness efforts, and educate the public about tsunami risks.     

A critical review of potential tsunamigenic sources as first step towards the tsunami hazard assessment for the Napoli Gulf (Southern Italy) highly populated area

Catastrophic tsunami events like those occurred in Papua New Guinea in 1998, Sumatra in 2004 and Japan in 2011, attracted the attention of the scientific community and promoted the development of different tools for assessing tsunami hazard. A preliminary step towards this goal is the knowledge of the events which might affect a specific coastal zone. In this context, we propose a method to identify the tsunami events possibly occurring in areas characterized by scarce data and a non-conservative environment. Accordingly, we propose different indices to summarize the knowledge on tsunami triggering mechanisms (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions), the characteristics of those mechanisms (magnitude of earthquakes, volume of landslide, Volcanic Explosivity Index) and tsunami features (water height, run-up, wave amplitude, propagation time). This knowledge, considered over a wider area than that of interest, allows for a paramount vision of possible hazardous events that could affect a particular coastal zone. Moreover, the tsunami simulation data and the analysis of potentially tsunamigenic slides which occurred on the Campania continental margins were also considered in the analysis. We focused our attention on Napoli megacity, because the high population density (about 1 million of people live on a territory of 117 km²), together with the presence of active volcanic areas (Ischia, Somma-Vesuvio and Campi Flegrei), make this city potentially exposed to tsunami risk. The main outcome of such an approach shows that in the near field a tsunami amplitude varying from a few centimetres (30–40 cm) to some metres (1–4 m) might be expected at the coastline if the tsunami event was triggered by volcanic activity, whereas no relevant tsunami event should be expected given the peculiar seismicity of the Neapolitan volcanic areas, with earthquakes rarely exceeding 4 Mw, if any possible cascade effects are overlooked. A morphometric analysis of high-resolution bathymetry collected between Ventotene Island and the Gulf of Salerno has shown that the submarine southern sectors of the Ischia Island and the Sorrento Peninsula are characterized by a high density of landslide scars, being thus a potential source area of landslide-generated tsunamis. However, despite the susceptibility of these areas to recurrent slope failures, only four submarine landslide scars were found to be potentially tsunamigenic with estimated tsunami amplitude of few metres at the coastline as predicted by coupling slide morphometry with tsunami amplitude equations. Concerning the tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Western Mediterranean, only those triggered by high magnitude events (value ≥ 6–7 Mw) might affect the city of Napoli with an amplitude not exceeding 0.5 m, in about 30′.     

The Storegga tsunami along the Norwegian coast, its age and run up

The statigraphy in 25 coastal lakes shows that most of the Norwegian coastline was impacted by a large tsunami about 7200 ¹⁴C BP. The methodology has been to core a staircase of lake basins above the contemporary sea level in several areas and to map the tsunami deposit to its maximum elevation. The tsunami was identified in the sedimentary record as an erosional unconformity overlain by graded or massive sand with shell fragments, followed by redeposited organic detritus. The greatest recorded runup along the coast (10–11 m above high tide) is found in areas most proximal to the Storegga slide scar on the Norwegian continental slope (Sunnmøre). To the north and south, runup is less, about 6–7 m at Bjugn (250 km north of Sunnmøre) and about 3–5 m in Austrheim (200 km to the south of Sunnmerre). This runup pattern supports the suggestion that the tsunami was generated by the Second Storegga Slide. The recorded runup heights are consistent within and between the investigated areas, and imply that the tsunami wave was not significantly influenced by the local topography, suggesting a very long wave length. The mapped runup estimates are in good agreement with a numerical model of the tsunami generated by the Second Storegga slide, and indicate that the slide was a single major event rather than a set of smaller slides.