2004年9月17日阳江4.9级地震概述

2004年9月17日广东阳江发生了4.9级地震,从地震序列、震中位置及等震线分布判断本次4.9级地震仍属1969年阳江6.4级地震＂老＂震区的晚期地震活动,与该区已发生的4～5级地震序列活动类似,具有前期余震频度、强度衰减快的特点.宏观调查及震源机制证实平冈断裂是此次4.9级地震的主要控震和发震构造.震前曾出现了一定数量的前兆异常,但地震学异常不显著,震前中小地震活动未出现异常活跃或异常平静.     

2012年云南宁蒗—盐源5.7级地震及震前异常分析

2012年6月24日,云南省宁蒗县发生5.7级地震,宏观震中位于宁蒗县永宁乡永宁村一带,极震区烈度Ⅶ度,为NW向椭圆形状,地震造成3人死亡、25人重伤,直接经济损失50 730万元.此次地震序列为主震—余震型,最大余震3.9级发生在6月26日,余震分布在主震北侧,呈近似NW向分布,与极震区烈度分布相一致,节面Ⅱ为主破裂面,主压应力P轴方位SE向,发震断裂为NW向的永宁断层.震前共出现8个异常项目12条异常,地震活动性异常4项,定点前兆异常5项,宏观异常3项,均为短临异常.     

2020年7月12日唐山5.1级地震分析

对2020年7月12日唐山5.1级地震的发震特点、地震的性质、发震构造以及破裂机制进行初步分析,推测唐山断裂可能为其控震断裂。地震前唐山地区和震中所处的华北构造区的地震活动性异常以缺震和显著平静为主,表明该区域地壳应力积累到了一定程度。分析认为：此次唐山5.1级地震属于1976年7月28日唐山7.8级大震震区内的地震起伏活动;此次地震的序列本身并不丰富,震区烈度偏低、有感范围大。     

2012年5月28日河北唐山4.8级地震分析

2012年5月28日唐山发生MS4.8地震,该地震发生在唐山断裂带上,地震的主破裂面走向与唐山断裂带走向一致,错动方式以走滑为主,地震序列是主震-余震型。震前两个月,从天津汉沽到北京平谷快速形成一条NW走向的ML1.0以上小震条带,该条带可能是唐山老震区未来地震活动增强的一个窗口,这对判断未来中强震的震中有一定的指导意义。     

2020年4月1日四川石渠5.6级地震总结

系统梳理2020年4月1日四川石渠5.6级地震震前地震活动异常特征、地球物理观测异常以及区域构造情况,结果如下:①地震活动:石渠5.6级地震震中区域属于历史弱震区,震前出现前兆震群,也是其前震活动;②地球物理观测:出现8项异常,其中形变5项,电磁3项,且电磁异常对于该地震具有预测意义;③综合方法:地震发生前,震中附近存...     

唐山断裂北段地震分布特征及其构造意义

自1976年唐山7.8级地震后40多年的余震时空图像演化显示,老震区余震的空间分布呈现出不均匀特征,尤其是1996年以来,老震区震中附近几乎没有4级以上地震发生,而在主震发震断裂(唐山断裂)北段赵各庄至榛子镇沿线形成了一个新的NW向4级以上地震密集区,2012年5.2级、2010年4.8级地震就发生在该区域。针对1996年前、后唐山地震余震空间分布图像对比所呈现的特点,通过对余震空间分布、前人研究成果、断裂带应力状态以及现场考察等的研究,综合分析唐山断裂北段地震分布特征及其构造意义,认为赵各庄到榛子镇的旧断裂存在新活动特征,未来中等强度以上地震危险区可能是古冶及其邻区。     

唐山7.8级地震前的震中迁移与远台前兆的关系

以震中迁移始发点的前兆讨论了唐山7.8级地震震中位置的预测,并以此为例分析了汶川8级地震和芦山7级地震的前兆问题。另外,从震中迁移延长线上的前兆来讨论了唐山大震的发生时间。     

2020年7月12日河北唐山5.1级地震总结

系统梳理2020年7月12日唐山古冶区5.1级地震前出现的地震活动和地球物理观测等异常,结果如下：①地震活动：震前存在地震平静、小震高频、中等地震成组等中短期异常;②地球物理观测：震前主要为电磁和流体异常,短期异常主要分布在震中100 km范围内;③震后回溯：北京及周边震前存在地震发生率异常,利用其他综合方法主要识别出年尺度异常。此次唐山5.1级地震发生在1976年唐山7.8级地震余震区,而7.8级地震序列地震活动呈非均匀衰减特征。此次唐山5.1级地震震源机制为走滑型破裂,截至7月31日,序列b值为0.70、h值为1.8,序列参数基本正常。综合分析认为,此次地震发生前,地震活动中短期异常较显著,地球物理观测异常占比明显偏低;震前对该区域出现的中期和短期异常有所察觉,但短期异常的预测强度偏低,震后总结时按震前异常预测的地震强度为4—5级,接近实际发生地震的强度。     

唐山古冶MS 5.1地震前断层位移协调比的短临异常分析

<正>1研究背景2020年7月12日河北唐山市古冶区发生MS 5.1地震,震源深度10km,震中位于1976年唐山MS 7.8地震老震区内,距唐山断裂小于10 km。地震造成河北唐山市中心震感强烈,天津、河北承德震感明显,北京、河北廊坊、沧州等地有震感。此为继1995年10月6日唐山古冶MS 5.0余震后,唐山老震区时隔25年发生的又一次5级以上地震。对于此震是否为唐山MS 7.8地震的余震尚有不同认识。1976年唐山大地震2年后,在原唐山十中院内地表出露的地裂缝上布设跨断层水准和基线各4条测线开展连续观测。     

地震力学成因及前兆机理研究——再“读”唐山地震有感

简述弹性回跳学说、板块构造模型及岩浆活动型地震等地震力学成因的现有观点,并对其进行了讨论。通过分析唐山震区的壳幔深部结构、前兆异常时空演化等资料,进一步论证了唐山地震力学成因为岩浆活动的观点。在此基础上对唐山地震前兆机理进行了研究,指出岩浆活动既是该地震发生的成因,也是各类前兆异常的成因,它们是岩浆活动这枚硬币的两面。最后指出只有正确认识地震和前兆的成因,才有可能用前兆资料对地震三要素做出较好的预报。     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.