A focus on the September 1985 Michoacan earthquakes

Summary The severity of damage to Mexico City as a result of the 19 September 1985 Michoacan earthquake was unusual given the city's distance (350 km) from the zone of seismic energy release. To explain the damage many authors have suggested that unusual source or transmission path characteristics contributed to enhanced ground motion in Mexico City. The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of results obtained from data recorded during the earthquake related to possible anomalous source characteristics.It is concluded that although the Michoacan earthquake was a large earthquake indeed, in terms of energy output, spectral content, geometry and source mechanics it was not remarkable or anomalous relative to other subduction zone earthquakes in Mexico or elsewhere. In fact the future may well see a larger earthquake generated along the Guerrero seismic gap which is significantly closer to Mexico City.     

论震源辐射问题

地震震源辐射过程是现代地震学中一个复杂而关键的课题,而震源谱的研究则是认识震源辐射的重要一环。地震波由震源传播至地球表面,经历了一系列诸如路径衰减、地壳表层放大和场地效应等物理作用。其中震波衰减效应包括几何扩散、非弹性衰减(YQ(f))和近地表高频衰减。地壳放大作用主要发生于表层或浅层波阻抗梯度带。为了更确切地描述和理解震源辐射谱,必须从观测到的地面运动记录中把地震源谱分离出来,从而消除传播路径和地表场地效应。强震运动记录是研究震源谱的基本资料。采用频率域方法,以傅里叶变换为工具,可使时间域的卷积问题简化为频率域的乘积运算。研究区域含日本、墨西哥、土尔其、加利福尼亚、加拿大西部(British Columbia)和北美东部(ENA)等典型构造区。结果表明,在适当消除路径和场地效应之后,震源谱的基本特征只随震级变化,而与研究地区无直接关系,亦即震源谱基本独立于构造区域、震源距和震源深度。这对于未来强震运动预测和地震灾害评估具有十分重要的理论和实际意义。与此同时,高频衰减因子(Kappa)与构造环境有关：低Kappa工资值相应于较稳定的板内构造环境下的硬岩场地(如北美东部),而相对较高的Kappa值则相应于比较活跃的构造环境下的场地条件,如日本、墨西哥、加拿大西海岸、美国西部的加利福尼亚和土耳其的转换构造带。强震运动水平与垂直分量的频谱比RH/V(f)作为频率的函数可近似描述为地壳放大和场地高频衰减的综合效应：即RH/V(f)=A(f)^-πkf。其中,A(f)是地壳表层放大函数,k是Kappa因子。通过震源谱的对比研究。提供了一个新的震级转换公式。     

Site-specific earthquake response study for hazard assessment in Kolkata city,India

The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s² (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.     

汶川大震的科学思考

在野外地震地质科学考察的基础上,围绕汶川地震发震断层的特征、发震机制、地表破裂带的分段性与分带性、南北构造带地震危险性、地震地质灾害的多发性及链生性、工程建（构）筑物的破坏特征与安全性、地震烈度区划问题及极端自然灾害的预测与应对等进行了分析和讨论,并就有关问题提出了一些新的思考。结果表明,低速滑动断层、晚更新世断层或中央活动断裂也可以发生强震;汶川地震同时具有深部构造的控震作用;地表破裂沿走向可分为映秀—安县段、北川—关口段及青川段;地表破裂可分为主破裂、牵动破裂与感应破裂3种类型;青川段的深部破裂与浅部破裂没有几何上的连续关系或继承关系;贺兰—川滇南北构造带是中国大陆强震多发带,尤其是其北段的六盘山—天水—武都—青川一带未来的强震危险性不容忽视;汶川地震地质灾害具有灾害类型多、成因机理复杂、灾害链长、规模大、范围广、灾害程度深、危害对象广、持续时间长等特点;高烈度区和活断层沿线的地质灾害危险性区划与预测评价对防灾减灾极为重要;活动断裂沿线应注意破裂影响带宽度与建筑物安全避让距离;应对地震等极端自然灾害,应以预防为主,综合减灾;地震烈度区划应同时考虑活动断层的复发周期、地震的离逝时间乃至地形地貌条件;重大工程应提高设防烈度;应当加强极端自然灾害预测评估,完善应对对策和提高应对水平。     

Seismic response of the Mexico City Basin: A review of twenty years of research

Mexico City, political and economic center of Mexico, was founded in a lake, at more than 2000 m above sea level. The lacustrine mud under the downtown area is associated with high seismic risk. Twenty years after the destructive 1985 earthquake (Ms = 8.1) we review published research on seismic response in the Mexico Basin, especially seismic and microtremor studies on soft ground and the influence of the seismic response of lake mud on damage.     

Unplanned and unforeseen effects of instabilities

The nature-society system is proposed as the relevant analytical unit for the sociological study of disasters. Like other complex systems, this system has emergent properties: its instabilities are the disasters. They often arise as a result of adoption by a community of specific technologies, e.g., housing technologies, that turn out to be unstable in the presence of critical natural or social changes. The following earthquake disasters were caused by unplanned and unforeseen features of housing or siting technologies: Huaxian 1556 (caves in loess), Yungay 1970 (siting in the path of an avalanche), and Mexico 1985 (high-rise buildings on soft ground). Disasters have anarchaeology, in the sense that the instabilities in the nature-society system are not static. This is demonstrated by tracing the 1985 Mexico earthquake disaster back to decisions on urban planning taken after 1521. It is not enough to know the hazard and the vulnerability in order to understand disasters. Technological solutions also have a local history.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.     

A review on advances in seismology in Mexico after 30 years from the 1985 earthquake

The 19 September 1985 (M_w8.1) earthquake, located on the Michoacán coast, Mexico, generated great damage in Mexico City, more than 300 km away from the epicentral area. Other important cities near the coast and in central Mexico also suffered severe damage. Thirty years after this important event, the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), the Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Baja California (CICESE) and other institutions organized a conference to discuss the scientific advances, particularly in seismology, that had taken place in Mexico since then.     

Application of fragility curves to estimate building damage and economic loss at a community scale: a case study of Seaside,Oregon

Community-scale estimates of building damage and economic loss are modeled for Seaside, Oregon, for Cascadia subduction zone events ranging from 8.7 to 9.3 M_W with corresponding slip distances of 3–25 m considering only the effects of the tsunami. Numerical simulations are obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s method of splitting tsunami model which includes a source model, subsidence, and calculations of the propagation and inundation flow characteristics. The damage estimates are based on fragility curves from the literature which relate flow depth with probability of damage for two different structural materials of buildings. Calculations are performed at the parcel level for the inundation hazard without including damage caused by the earthquake itself. Calculations show that the severity of building damage in Seaside is sensitive to the magnitude of the event or degree of slip because the majority of the city is located on low-lying coastal land within the estimated inundation zone. For the events modeled, the percentage of building within the inundation zone ranges from 9 to 88 %, with average direct economic losses ranging from $2 million to $1.2 billion.     

1998 Adana-Ceyhan (Turkey) Earthquake and a Preliminary Microzonation Based on Liquefaction Potential for Ceyhan Town

A moderate earthquake (M_s = 6.2) occurred in the Cukurova region in the southern part of Turkey, on 27 June 1998. It resulted in loss of 145 lives and significant damage particularly in the settlements close to the epicenter at the south of Ceyhan town. Widespread liquefaction and associated sand boils, ground fissures and ground deformations due to lateral spreading occurred during this earthquake. In this study, main characteristics of the earthquake are presented and liquefaction throughout the site was assessed. An attempt was also made to establish preliminary microzonation maps for Ceyhan using the data from liquefaction susceptibility analyses. The results of the analyses indicated that the data from the liquefied sites were within the empirical bounds suggested by the field-performance evaluation method. Fortunately, most of the riversides were used for agricultural purposes alone, damage to structures from liquefaction and associated ground failures were rather limited. Preliminary assessments indicated that at depths of about 5 m the liquefaction potential of thin sand layers tends to diminish.     

Estimation of Earthquake Damage to Buried Pipelines Caused by Ground Shaking

One of the most critical lessons of the recent earthquakes is the need for seismic planning for lifelines, with appropriate supplies and back up systems for emergency repair and restoration. Seismic planning, however requires physical loss estimations before the earthquakes occur. Buried pipeline damage correlations are critical part of loss estimation procedures applied to lifelines for future earthquakes. We review the existing pipeline damage relationships only for ground shaking (transient ground deformations) in the light of recent developments and evaluate them with Denizli City, Turkey water supply system. Eight scenario earthquakes with four different earthquake magnitudes between M6 and M7 caused by two different fault ruptures (Pamukkale and Karakova-Akhan Faults) were used. Analyses were performed by using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). This high number of different scenario earthquakes made it possible to compare the pipeline damage relationships at different ground shaking levels. Pipeline damage estimations for Denizli City were calculated for each damage relationship and earthquake scenario. Relative effects of damage relationships and scenario earthquakes on the results were compared and discussed. The results were presented separately for brittle, ductile, and all pipelines. It was shown that the variation in ductile pipeline damage estimations by various relationships was higher than the variation in brittle pipeline damage estimations for a particular scenario earthquake.     

Seismic performance evaluation of dam-reservoir-foundation systems to near-fault ground motions

Ground motion records obtained in recent major strong earthquakes have provided evidence that ground motions recorded near the near-fault regions differ in many cases from those observed further away from the seismic source. As the forward directivity and fling effect characteristics of the near-fault ground motions, they have the potential to cause more considerable damage to structures during an earthquake. Therefore, understanding the influence of near-fault ground motions on the performance of structures is critical to mitigate damage and perform effective response. This paper presents results of a study aimed at evaluating the effects of near-fault and far-fault ground motions on seismic performance of concrete gravity dams including dam-reservoir-foundation interaction. Koyna gravity dam is selected as a numerical application. Four different near-fault ground motion records with an apparent velocity pulse are used in the analyses. The earthquake ground motions recorded at the same site from other events that the epicenter far away from the site are employed as the far-fault ground motions. The seismic performance evaluation method based on the demand-capacity ratio, the cumulative overstress duration and the spatial extent of overstressed regions is presented. The concrete damaged plasticity model including the strain hardening or softening behavior is employed in nonlinear analyses. Nonlinear seismic damage analyses of the selected concrete dam subjected to both near-fault and far-fault ground motions are performed. The results obtained from the analyses show the effects of near-fault ground motions on seismic performance of concrete gravity dams and demonstrate the importance of considering the near-fault ground excitations.     

2015尼泊尔大地震及喜马拉雅造山带未来地震趋势

2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_s 8.1级大地震是发生在喜马拉雅造山带中段的低角度逆冲断层运动, 特点是震源很浅, 震中烈度达Ⅺ度, 震害严重。破裂带走向北西西—南东东, 穿越尼泊尔首都加德满都, 使首都建筑遭受严重破坏。该震是1934年以来尼泊尔最大地震, 标志着喜马拉雅带自1950年以来半个世纪的平静期已经结束。自2005年进入新活动期, 至2015年尼泊尔大地震发生已达到活动高潮。预计将持续十到几十年。根据历史地震资料分析, 今后可能沿喜马拉雅带走向发生纵向迁移, 将在喜马拉雅带东段发生更大的地震, 从而使地震高潮达到顶峰而结束, 可能对我国西藏东南、不丹和印度边界产生破坏。另外还可能沿着与喜马拉雅带走向垂直方向向北迁移(即横向迁移), 在几年之内即可在西藏、青海引起破坏性地震, 需要相关省市做好监测预报和防灾工作。      

Factors affecting wave magnitude and period during the earthquakes of September, 1985

Summary The geology and structure of the Mexico Basin are discussed and hypotheses developed to explain the magnification of wave amplitudes during the 1985 earthquake.     

Observations of the performance of buildings during the 1985 Mexico earthquake,and structural design implications

Summary The high amplification of the 1985 Mexico City earthquake is explained by the large number of strong and nearly continuous cycles of 2 s period motion lasting for more than 30 s. The type of damage caused by the earthquake—particularly to engineered multi-storey buildings of high flexibility is described, and methods of adding damping and stiffness elements to reduce and resist earthquake demand forces are discussed.     

The Basin of Mexico and its metropolitan area: water abstraction and related environmental problems

The Basin of Mexico is a closed basin of lacustrine character, with an average elevation of 2200 m above sea level. The watershed covers a vast extension in five states. Mexico City and its metropolitan area are located within this basin. The aquifer system is the main source of water supply for more than 20 million people. Water consumption is about 60 m³/s. The aquifer supplies about 43 m³/s from around 1000 wells at 70–200 m depth. Pumping policies have generated subsidence and degradation of the ground water quality in the Basin of Mexico The lacustrian clay layers play an important role in the local hydrogeology, protecting the aquifer from pollution, but the transition and piedmont areas are highly vulnerable to surface pollutants.     

Analysis of soil effects and distribution of damage from the Pyrgos 1993 (Greece) earthquake

Summary On 26 March, 1993, a moderate magnitude earthquake (M _s=5.5) occurred at 3 km epicentral distance from the town of Pyrgos, in Southern Greece, causing extensive damage to masonry houses. To explain the variability of seismic intensity over the town and to propose measures against future seismic activity, a microzonation study was undertaken which combined geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations, site specific analyses of seismic ground response and detailed recording of structural damage. The analytical predictions of ground response are correlated to soil conditions and then used to identify (micro-)zones of sites with similar seismic response. Furthermore, they are compared to quantitative estimates of damage distribution over the town. It is concluded that the peak ground acceleration, normalized against the input peak seismic acceleration, is a function of the local soil conditions as well as the seismic excitation characteristics. Hence, it cannot be defined uniquely at a site, without reference to the seismic excitation. However, the normalized peak ground velocity and the acceleration response spectra are mainly functions of the soil conditions and can be used as criteria for the practical definition of (micro-)zones. The distribution of damage in various parts of the town is at least partially attributable to local soil effects. The small epicentral distance of the earthquake, connected with the direction of the fault rupture, as well as the quality and techniques of construction, are additional factors that may have influenced the extent and distribution of damage.     

芦山地震：一个成功的中期预测案例

2013年4月20日MS 7.0级芦山地震是2008年汶川地震以后龙门山断裂带的又一个灾难性的地质事件。文中回顾了对芦山地震的成功中期预测并给出了预测的依据。2012年11月25日上午,中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会讨论中国西南地区中期地震预测问题。专业委员会主任耿庆国回顾了2012年4月作出的中期预测,认为2012年5月至2013年5月期间,在我国西南地区可能存在MS 7~8级地震。参加会议的委员们同意这一时间预测和震级预测,但是在震中位置预测方面存在不同意见。文章第一作者在会上作了一个报告,并展示了确切的震中预测位置图,即位于四川省雅安与康定连线的中间位置。这一预测的依据主要有两个方面：一方面,雅安西侧与汶川两地,具有两个特征相同的独立的卫星重力局部高异常;二是汶川(5·12)大震只是释放了龙门山断裂带北东段的能量和应力,这导致能量和应力在龙门山断裂带南西段,特别是南西端与重力异常突变叠加区(即中上地壳密度突变区)的加速积累和集中。芦山地震震中位于雅安芦山,与预测震中位置仅相差80 km,发震时间在2013年5月前。芦山地震中期预测的成功给予我们很多启示。作为一种地质过程,地震应该有其自身的规律可循;成功的地震预测需要多方面观测信息的综合分析,正是基于此,目前迫切需要国家的或者国际的具有综合分析经验的专家组和有效的前兆信息平台;卫星重力异常数据的处理和更新将有助于缩小强震预测的包围圈。     

基于原地应力实测数据探讨华北典型强震区断裂活动危险性及其对雄安新区的影响

华北地区距雄安新区300 km范围内包括唐山、邢台和张北三个典型强震区,近50年来,先后发生1966年邢台7.2级、1976年唐山7.8级和1998年张北6.2级强震活动,未来仍具发生破坏性地震的风险。在现今构造应力环境下,3个典型强震区内断裂活动危险性如何、再次发生中强地震对雄安新区地面稳定性有怎样的影响,这些都是要回答的问题。对此,本文首先基于唐山、邢台和张北强震区关键构造部位深孔水压致裂地应力测量数据,依据Byerlee断层滑动失稳摩擦准则,计算各强震区内潜在发震断层的临界失稳状态,探讨断裂活动危险性;之后依据中华人民共和国第五代《中国地震动参数区划图》之《中国大陆及邻区潜在震源区划分图》,厘定雄安新区外围300 km范围内主要潜在震源区和震级上限;最后选取适宜的地震烈度衰减模型,定量计算主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震时对雄安新区地震烈度的影响,进而为雄安新区及重大工程抗震设防提供科学参考。结果表明：(1)唐山、邢台和张北强震区内主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震产生的地震烈度衰减至雄安新区时均位于Ⅳ~Ⅶ度;(2)北京通州及邻区发生8.0级地震、涞水—高碑店沿线发生6.5级地震会在雄安新区产生Ⅶ度地震烈度,震害较轻;(3)其他潜在震源区在雄安新区产生的地震烈度均小于V度,并不会产生显著震害效应。鉴于此,雄安新区抗震设防烈度建议由原Ⅶ度调至Ⅷ度为宜。     

2012年缅甸德贝金M7.0地震及其地表破裂特征

文章以地质地貌与地震遗迹野外调查获得的第一手资料为基础,重点介绍了实皆断裂的活动习性、2012年地震产生的建筑物破坏与地震地表破裂带特征.实皆断裂是一条规模宏大,以右旋走滑为主的全新世活动断裂,其水平滑动速率为18～20 mm/a.历史上沿实皆断裂曾发生10余次7级以上强震,迄今保留有1839年曼德勒因瓦M 8、193...