Role of sea surface temperature,Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow in forcing the atmospheric circulation in winter of 2012–2013

Climate Dynamics - During the 2012–2013 winter, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predominated, resulting in a cold winter over Europe and northern Asia punctuated by...     

Interannual variability of sea‐ice cover in Hudson bay,Baffin bay and the Labrador sea

Abstract

The spatial and temporal relationships between subarctic Canadian sea‐ice cover and atmospheric forcing are investigated by analysing sea‐ice concentration, sea‐level pressure and surface air temperature data from 1953 to 1988. The sea‐ice anomalies in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea are found to be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Oscillation (SO). Through a spatial Student's i‐test and a Monte Carlo simulation, it is found that sea‐ice cover in both Hudson Bay and the Baffin Bay‐Labrador Sea region responds to a Low/Wet episode of the SO (defined as the period when the SO index becomes negative) mainly in summer. In this case, the sea‐ice cover has a large positive anomaly that starts in summer and continues through to autumn. The ice anomaly is attributed to the negative anomalies in the regional surface air temperature record during the summer and autumn when the Low/Wet episode is developing. During strong winter westerly wind events of the NAO, the Baffin Bay‐Labrador Sea ice cover in winter and spring has a positive anomaly due to the associated negative anomaly in surface air temperature. During the years in which strong westerly NAO and Low/Wet SO events occur simultaneously (as in 1972/73 and 1982/83), the sea ice is found to have large positive anomalies in the study region; in particular, such anomalies occurred for a major portion of one of the two years. A spectral analysis shows that sea‐ice fluctuations in the Baffin Bay‐Labrador Sea region respond to the SO and surface air temperature at about 1.7‐, 5‐ and 10‐year periods. In addition, a noticeable sea‐ice change was found (i.e. more polynyas occurred) around the time of the so‐called “climate jump” during the early 1960s. Data on ice thickness and on ice‐melt dates from Hudson Bay are also used to verify some of the above findings.     

Simulation of sea ice and ocean variability in the arctic during 1955–2002 with an intermediate complexity model

Abstract

A number of recent sea‐ice and ocean changes in the Arctic and subarctic regions are simulated using the global University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System Climate Model version 2.6. This is an intermediate complexity model which includes a three‐dimensional ocean model (MOM 2.2), an energy‐moisture balance model for the atmosphere with heat and moisture transport, and a dynamic‐thermodynamic sea‐ice model with elastic‐viscous‐plastic rheology. The model is first spun up for 1800 years with monthly wind stress forcing derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology winds and a pre‐industrial atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 280 ppm. After a second spin‐up for the period 1800–1947 with daily climatology winds‐tress forcing, and a linearly increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration, the model is run with interannually varying wind stresses for the period 1948–2002 with an average forcing interval of 2.5 days and an exponentially increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration varying from 315 to 365 ppm. However, the analysis of the model output is only carried out for the years 1955–2002.

The simulated maximum and minimum sea‐ice areas for the Arctic are within 6% of the observed climatologies for the years 1978–2001. The model output also shows a small downward trend in sea‐ice extent, which, however, is smaller than has been observed during the past few decades. In addition, the model simulates a decrease in sea‐ice thickness in the SCICEX (SCientific ICe EXpeditions) measurement area in the central Arctic that is consistent with, but smaller than, that observed from submarine sonar profiling data.

The observed variability and magnitude of the export of sea ice through Fram Strait is quite well captured in the simulation. The change in correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the sea‐ice export around 1977 as found in a data study by Hilmer and Jung (2000) is also reproduced. Within the Arctic basin the model simulates well the patterns and the timing of the two major regimes of wind‐forced sea‐ice drift circulation (cyclonic and anticyclonic) as found earlier by Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997). The influence of variations in the Fram Strait ice export on the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and surface air temperature are also determined. In particular, it is shown that 3–4 years after a large ice export, the maximum meridional overturning streamfunction decreases by more than 10%.

The temperature and salinity increase at depths of 200–300 m, as observed in the eastern Arctic by Morison et al. (1998), between the USS Pargo cruise in 1993 and the Environmental Working Group (EWG) Joint USRussian Arctic Atlas climatology for the years 1948–87, are just visible in the model simulation. The increases are more noticeable, however, when the ocean model data are averaged over the pentade 1995–2000 and compared with model data averaged over the pentade 1955–60. The fact that these, and some of the other modelled changes, are smaller than the observed changes can likely be attributed to the relatively coarse resolution of the UVic Earth System Climate Model (3.6°E‐W and 1.8°N‐S). Nevertheless, the fact that the model captures qualitatively many of the recent sea‐ice and ocean changes in the Arctic suggests that it can be successfully used to investigate other Arctic‐North Atlantic Ocean climate interactions during past and future eras.     

Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001

Summary In this study, trends of annual and seasonal surface air temperature time series were examined for 20 stations in Greece for the period 1955–2001, and satellite data for the period 1980–2001. Two statistical tests based on the least square method and one based on the Mann-Kendall test, which is also capable of detecting the starting year of possible climatic discontinuities or changes, were used for the analysis. Greece, in general, shows a cooling trend in winter for the period 1955–2001, whereas, summer shows an overall warming trend, however, neither is statistically significant. As a result, the overall trend of the annual values is nearly zero. Comparison with corresponding trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) shows that temperatures in Greece do not follow the intense warming trends. Satellite data indicate a remarkable warming trend in mean annual, winter and summer in Greece for the period 1980–2001, and a slight warming trend in annual, spring and autumn for the NH. Comparison with the respective trends detected in the surface air temperature for the same period (1980–2001) shows they match each other quite well in both Greece and the NH. The relationship between temperature variability in Greece and atmospheric circulation was also examined using correlation analysis with three circulation indices: the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), a Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and a new Mediterranean Circulation Index (MCI). The MOI and MCI indices show the most interesting correlation with winter temperatures in Greece. The behaviour of pressure and the height of the 500hPa surface over the Mediterranean region supports these results.     

On the relationship between arctic sea‐ice anomalies and fluctuations in Northern Canadian air temperature and river discharge

Abstract

A lagged cross‐correlation analysis of climatic data from the period 1953–1984 was carried out for three regions of Northern Canada (Beaufort Sea, Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea) to determine the relationships between sea‐ice anomalies and surface air temperature and river discharge anomalies. Significant negative correlations at the 95% level were found between sea‐ice and temperature anomalies. A significant correlation at the 95% level was found between sea‐ice and river discharge anomalies in only one of two subregions studied.     

Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

A principal component decomposition of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean demonstrates that nearly all of the linear trends during 1950–2010 are found in two leading patterns. The first SST pattern is strongly related to the canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. The second pattern shares characteristics with the first pattern and its existence solely depends on the presence of linear trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The decomposition also uncovers a third pattern, often referred to as ENSO Modoki, but the linear trend is small and dataset dependent over the full 61-year record and is insignificant within each season. ENSO Modoki is also reflected in the equatorial zonal SST gradient between the Niño-4 region, located in the west-central Pacific, and the Niño-3 region in the eastern Pacific. It is only in this zonal SST gradient that a marginally significant trend arises early in the Northern Hemisphere spring (March–May) during El Niño and La Niña and also in the late summer (July–September) during El Niño. Yet these SST trends in the zonal gradient do not unequivocally represent an ENSO Modoki-like dipole because they are exclusively associated with significant positive SST trends in either the eastern or western Pacific, with no corresponding significant negative trends. Insignificant trends in the zonal SST gradient are evident during the boreal wintertime months when ENSO events typically mature. Given the presence of positive SST trends across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, using fixed SST anomaly thresholds to define ENSO events likely needs to be reconsidered.     

Precipitation and temperature space–time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region: evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

This study evaluates how statistical and dynamical downscaling models as well as combined approach perform in retrieving the space–time variability of near-surface temperature and rainfall, as well as their extremes, over the whole Mediterranean region. The dynamical downscaling model used in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with varying land-surface models and resolutions (20 and 50 km) and the statistical tool is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform (CDF-t). To achieve a spatially resolved downscaling over the Mediterranean basin, the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) gridded dataset is used for calibration and evaluation of the downscaling models. In the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX international programs, the downscaling is performed on ERA-I reanalysis over the 1989–2008 period. The results show that despite local calibration, CDF-t produces more accurate spatial variability of near-surface temperature and rainfall with respect to ECA&D than WRF which solves the three-dimensional equation of conservation. This first suggests that at 20–50 km resolutions, these three-dimensional processes only weakly contribute to the local value of temperature and precipitation with respect to local one-dimensional processes. Calibration of CDF-t at each individual grid point is thus sufficient to reproduce accurately the spatial pattern. A second explanation is the use of gridded data such as ECA&D which smoothes in part the horizontal variability after data interpolation and damps the added value of dynamical downscaling. This explains partly the absence of added-value of the 2-stage downscaling approach which combines statistical and dynamical downscaling models. The temporal variability of statistically downscaled temperature and rainfall is finally strongly driven by the temporal variability of its forcing (here ERA-Interim or WRF simulations). CDF-t is thus efficient as a bias correction tool but does not show any added-value regarding the time variability of the downscaled field. Finally, the quality of the reference observation dataset is a key issue. Comparison of CDF-t calibrated with ECA&D dataset and WRF simulations to local measurements from weather stations not assimilated in ECA&D, shows that the temporal variability of the downscaled data with respect to the local observations is closer to the local measurements than to ECA&D data. This highlights the strong added-value of dynamical downscaling which improves the temporal variability of the atmospheric dynamics with regard to the driving model. This article highlights the benefits and inconveniences emerging from the use of both downscaling techniques for climate research. Our goal is to contribute to the discussion on the use of downscaling tools to assess the impact of climate change on regional scales.     

30 and 43 months period cycles found in air temperature time series using the Morlet wavelet method

A wavelet-based methodology is applied to relevant climatic indices and air temperature records and allow to detect the existence of unexpected cycles. The scale spectrum shows the presence of two cycles of about 30 and 43 months, respectively, in the air–temperature time series, in addition to the well-known cycles of 1 day and 1 year. The two cycles do not affect the globe uniformly: some regions seem to be more influenced by the period of 30 months (e.g. Europe), while other areas are affected by the period of 43 months (e.g. North-West of the USA). Similar cycles are found in the indices and the regions influenced by these indices: the NAO index and the Western Europe display a cycle of 30 months, while the cycle of 43 months can be found in the ENSO index and in regions where it is known to have an impact.     

Humidity Effect and Its Influence on the Seasonal Distribution of Precipitation δ18O in Monsoon Regions

The humidity effect, namely the markedly positive correlation between the stable isotopic ratio in precipitation and the dew-point deficit △Td in the atmosphere, is put forward firstly and the relationships between the δ18O in precipitation and △Td are analyzed for the Urumqi and Kunming stations, which have completely different climatic characteristics. Although the seasonal variations in δ18O and △Td exhibit differences between the two stations, their humidity effect is notable. The correlation coefficient and its confidence level of the humidity effect are higher than those of the amount effect at Kunming, showing the marked influence of the humidity conditions in the atmosphere on stable isotopes in precipitation.Using a kinetic model for stable isotopic fractionation, and according to the seasonal distribution of meanmonthly temperature at 500 hPa at Kunming, the variations of the δ18O in condensate in cloud aresimulated. A very good agreement between the seasonal variations of the simulated mean δ18O and themean monthly temperature at 500 hPa is obtained, showing that the oxygen stable isotope in condensateof cloud experiences a temperature effect. Such a result is markedly different from the amount effect atthe ground. Based on the simulations of seasonal variations of δ18O in falling raindrops, it can be foundthat, in the dry season from November to April, the increasing trend with falling distance of δ18O in fallingraindrops corresponds remarkably to the great ATd, showing a strong evaporation enrichment function infalling raindrops; however, in the wet season from May to October, the δ18O in falling raindrops displaysan unapparent increase corresponding to the small ATd, except in May. By comparing the simulated meanδ18O at the ground with the actual monthly δ18O in precipitation, we see distinctly that the two monthlyδ18O variations agree very well. On average, the δ18O values are relatively lower because of the highlymoist air, heavy rainfall, small △Td and weak evaporation enrichment function of stable isotopes in thefalling raindrops, under the influence of vapor from the oceans; but they are relatively higher because of the dry air, light rainfall, great △Td and strong evaporation enrichment function in falling raindrops, under the control of the continental air mass. Therefore, the δ18O in precipitation at Kunming can be used to indicate the humidity situation in the atmosphere to a certain degree, and thus indicate the intensity of the precipitation and the strength of the monsoon indirectly. The humidity effect changes not only the magnitude of the stable isotopic ratio in precipitation but also its seasonal distribution due to its influence on the strength of the evaporation enrichment of stable isotopes in falling raindrops and the direction of the net mass transfer of stable isotopes between the atmosphere and the raindrops. Consequently, it is inferred that the humidity effect is probably one of the foremost causes generating the amount effect.     

Interdecadal change in the Eurasia–Pacific anti-phase relation of atmospheric mass and its possible link with PDO

Based on the known climatic shift that occurred in 1976, we divide the present study period into two epochs: epoch-I, for 1958–1976; and epoch-II, for 1977–2002. Using ERA-40 and the 20th century reanalysis data, we investigate the interdecadal change in the Eurasia–Pacific anti-phase relation (EPAR) pattern of atmospheric mass (AM) during boreal winter before and after 1976. It is found that anomalous AM over lands is highly and negatively correlated with anomalous AM over oceans in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter season. This correlation does not change much from epoch-I to epoch-II. However, the correlation pattern of surface air pressure anomalies with variations of anomalous AM over lands changes remarkably from epoch-I to epoch-II; the EPAR pattern emerges evidently in the later period, whereas it is not significant in epoch-I. The occurrence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-II may be attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may modulate the EPAR pattern in two ways. Firstly, the interdecadal component of the PDO as a background may modulate the intensities of the Aleutian low, East Asian trough, and westerly flow, acting as a waveguide during the warm phase (epoch-II) of the PDO. Secondly, the interannual variations of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific, in association with the PDO, may affect the interannual variations of AM, which facilitates the existence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-II only. With the teleconnection pattern having changed before and after 1976, winter climate anomalies, including rainfall and temperature, are found to be different in many regions in the Northern Hemisphere between epoch-I and epoch-II. All the results of the present work are meaningful for a better understanding of climate anomalies during boreal winter.     

Humidity Effect and Its Influence on the Seasonal Distribution of Precipitation δ~(18)O in Monsoon Regions

The humidity effect, namely the markedly positive correlation between the stable isotopic ratio in precipitation and the dew-point deficit ATd in the atmosphere, is put forward firstly and the relationships between the δ18O in precipitation and ATd are analyzed for the Urumqi and Kunming stations, which have completely different climatic characteristics. Although the seasonal variations in δ18O and △Td exhibit differences between the two stations, their humidity effect is notable. The correlation coefficient and its confidence level of the humidity effect are higher than those of the amount effect at Kunming, showing the marked influence of the humidity conditions in the atmosphere on stable isotopes in precipitation. Using a kinetic model for stable isotopic fractionation, and according to the seasonal distribution of mean monthly temperature at 500 hPa at Kunming, the variations of the δ18O in condensate in cloud are simulated. A very good agreement between the seasonal variations of the simulated     

Drought history inferred from tree ring δ 13C and δ 18O in the central Tianshan Mountains of China and linkage with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Annual tree ring δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C chronologies from 1790 to 2008 were established using Tianshan spruce (Picea schrenkiana) in the central Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China. Temperature has a positive effect on tree ring δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C in the study area, while precipitation and relative humidity have negative effects. The standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) considered all of these effects and was significantly negatively correlated with tree ring δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C. We combined the tree ring δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C series to reconstruct the past 192 years of SPEI, which accounted for about 46 % of the total variance of SPEI from 1950 to 2006. The reconstruction showed good spatial agreement with gridded data in Palmer Drought Severity Index and precipitation and an inverse relationship with temperature. Our SPEI reconstruction reveals several wet and dry periods over the past 192 years and has good agreement with other drought records. Wavelet analysis showed quasi-periodic 10-, 20-, 30-, and 70-year fluctuations in the reconstruction. The 10-, 20-, and 30-year periodicities may reflect the potential influence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Overall, this study indicates that the SPEI is a potential drought index, and the winter NAO affects regional moisture conditions in the long term.