The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

An observational study covering the period 1950–2002 examines a seasonal reversal in the ENSO rainfall signal in the north-central Philippines. In boreal Summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, above (below) average rainfall typically occurs in this area. Rainfall anomalies of opposite sign develop across the country in the subsequent fall. This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during both El Niño and La Niña and places these features in the context of the large-scale evolution of ENSO events, including an analysis of changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting the Philippines. The results show that during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, a relatively narrow, zonally elongated band of enhanced (reduced) low-level westerlies develops across the WNP which serves to increase (decrease) the summer monsoon flow and moisture flux over the north-central Philippines and is associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the WNP monsoon trough via the anomalous relative vorticity. Tropical cyclone activity is shown to be enhanced (reduced) in the study region during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, which is related to the increase (decrease) of mid-level atmospheric moisture, as diagnosed using a genesis potential index. The subsequent evolution shows development of an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the WNP in El Niño (La Niña) and the well-known tendency for below (above) average rainfall in the fall. Prolonged ENSO events also exhibit seasonal rainfall sign reversals in the Philippines with a similar evolution in atmospheric circulation.     

成都多普勒天气雷达定量测量降水研究

本文简要引述了天气雷达定量测量降水的基本原理:用历史资料,对成都多普勒天气雷达反射率因子2与降水强度I之间的经验计算公式中a、b的取值进行了严格检验,结果发现其计算精度约为88.1%,并对误差原因进行了详细分析;对今后开展天气雷达定量测量降水工作提出了建议.     

成都多普勒天气雷达定量测量降水研究

本文简要引述了天气雷达定量测量降水的基本原理;用历史资料,对成都多普勒天气雷达反射率因子Z与降水强度I之间的经验计算公式中a、b的取值进行了严格检验,结果发现其计算精度约为88.1%,并对误差原因进行了详细分析;对今后开展天气雷达定量测量降水工作提出了建议。     

Experimental results on rainfall estimation in complex terrain with a mobile X-band polarimetric weather radar

In this work the capability of reliable rainfall measurements with small weather radars in complex terrain for flood forecasting purposes is examined. Rain measurements were carried out during winter–spring 2007 with a mobile X-band dual-polarization radar in the northwestern mountainous part of the island of Crete in Greece. In this area a 2D-video disdrometer and a network of raingauges was installed for radar calibration and evaluation of rainfall measurements, respectively. The complex terrain of the experimental site may significantly reduce the performance of rain measurements due to ground clutter and partial or total beam blockage. A beam blockage algorithm using high resolution terrain data was applied in order to find areas with significant terrain effects and estimate correction of the radar measurements. Rain attenuation correction was based on modern sophisticated algorithms using differential phase measurements. The accuracy of rainfall estimation from standard or polarimetric algorithms at plan position indicator (PPI) scans was examined for high-temporal resolution (1 min) rainfall rates and accumulated rainfall values for winter and spring time rain events. For high elevation measurements, which were required in order to avoid terrain effects in large areas of interest, a correction for the vertical-profile-of-reflectivity (VPR) was also applied to the radar data. An average VPR model used in the corresponding correction of reflectivity was constructed based on range–height indicator (RHI) scans. It was concluded that quantitative high resolution X-band radar observations of rainfall in complex terrain is possible after careful application of all the above processing steps.     

石家庄地区冰雹天气环境条件的多普勒天气雷达资料分析

利用石家庄CINRAD/SA型多普勒雷达站的VAD产品的风向、风速、VWP产品,以及通过EVAD技术计算绘制的散度、垂直速度分布廓线,对石家庄雷达站35 km内,在2004-2005年出现的4次冰雹天气过程出现前后1h左右的环境条件进行了分析.结果表明:冰雹发生时,在3～6 km的回波中层主要为偏西风、偏北风,随高度上升风速显著增加,在6～9 km风速达到最大;在冰雹发生前VWP产品上高低层有较强的垂直风切变,风向随高度顺转;高空急流下传与冰雹的发生密切相关;在冰雹过程发生前后3～6km存在明显的由上升运动到下沉运动的转变.为准确监测、预报冰雹天气提供依据.     

2004年一次连续性暴雨天气过程的中尺度对流系统分析

利用卫星云图对引发2004年6月22～24日贵州省连续性区域强降水的中尺度对流云团的发生、发展和演变过程进行分析,得出中尺度对流系统的活动是产生此次连续性暴雨天气的主要因素.     

The Structure and Rainfall Features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun （2002）

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data [TRMM Microwave Imager/Precipitation Radar/Visible and Infrared Scanner (TMI/PR/VIRS)] and a numerical model are used to investigate the structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rammasun (2002). Based on the analysisof TRMM data, which are diagnosed together with NCEP/AVN [Aviation (global model)] analysis data,some typical features of TC structure and rainfall are preliminary discovered. Since the limitations of TRMM data are considered for their time resolution and coverage, the world observed by TRMM at several moments cannot be taken as the representation of the whole period of the TC lifecycle, therefore the picture should be reproduced by a numerical model of high quality. To better understand the structure and rainfall features of TC Rammasun, a numerical simulation is carried out with mesoscale model MM5 in which the validations have been made with the data of TRMM and NCEP/AVN analysis.     

Evaluation of radar and automatic weather station data assimilation for a heavy rainfall event in southern China

To improve the accuracy of short-term(0–12 h) forecasts of severe weather in southern China, a real-time storm-scale forecasting system, the Hourly Assimilation and Prediction System(HAPS), has been implemented in Shenzhen, China. The forecasting system is characterized by combining the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF-ARW)model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System(ARPS) three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR) package. It is capable of assimilating radar reflectivity and radial velocity data from multiple Doppler radars as well as surface automatic weather station(AWS) data. Experiments are designed to evaluate the impacts of data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting(QPF) by studying a heavy rainfall event in southern China. The forecasts from these experiments are verified against radar, surface, and precipitation observations. Comparison of echo structure and accumulated precipitation suggests that radar data assimilation is useful in improving the short-term forecast by capturing the location and orientation of the band of accumulated rainfall. The assimilation of radar data improves the short-term precipitation forecast skill by up to9 hours by producing more convection. The slight but generally positive impact that surface AWS data has on the forecast of near-surface variables can last up to 6–9 hours. The assimilation of AWS observations alone has some benefit for improving the Fractions Skill Score(FSS) and bias scores; when radar data are assimilated, the additional AWS data may increase the degree of rainfall overprediction.     

一次降雨过程风廓线雷达特征

为应用风廓线雷达监测降水天气,通过对2006年南京地区一次春季降雨过程的边界层风廓线雷达探测数据和自动站雨量数据进行对比分析和相关性统计,研究了降水发生、维持和消亡期间风廓线雷达资料的变化特征,分析风廓线雷达垂直速度、速度谱宽与降雨强度之间的相关性。结果表明：当降雨临近时,风廓线雷达水平风廓线上的空洞逐渐消失,当降雨结束时空洞再次出现,且伴随着低空急流的出现降水明显增强。随着降雨的发生,风廓线雷达产品的垂直速度、速度谱宽和折射率结构常数值均明显增大。整个降水期间,550 m高度层以下的垂直速度与降水量存在显著线性负相关,450-950 m高度层之间的速度谱宽与降水量存在显著线性正相关,可见垂直速度、速度谱宽的变化与降水强度关系密切;当垂直负速度变小或速度谱宽变大时,降水增强的可能性增大。研究结果揭示了风廓线雷达垂直速度、速度谱宽与降雨强度之间的内在联系,可为风廓线雷达应用于降雨天气的监测。     

一次降雨过程风廓线雷达回波特征

为应用风廓线雷达监测降水天气,通过对2006年南京地区一次春季降雨过程的边界层风廓线雷达探测数据与自动站雨量数据进行对比分析和相关性统计,研究降水发生、维持和消亡期间风廓线雷达资料的变化特征,分析风廓线雷达垂直速度、速度谱宽与降雨强度之间的相关性。结果表明：当降雨临近时,风廓线雷达水平风廓线上的空洞逐渐消失,当降雨结束时空洞再次出现,且伴随着低空急流的出现降水明显增强。随着降雨的发生,风廓线雷达产品的垂直速度、速度谱宽和折射率结构常数值均明显增大。整个降水期间,550 m高度层以下的垂直速度与降水量存在显著线性负相关,450—950 m高度层之间的速度谱宽与降水量存在显著线性正相关,可见垂直速度、速度谱宽的变化与降水强度关系密切;当垂直负速度变小或速度谱宽变大时,降水增强的可能性增大。研究结果揭示了风廓线雷达垂直速度、速度谱宽与降雨强度之间的内在联系,可为风廓线雷达应用于降雨天气监测提供参考。     

Calibration of weather radar using region probability matching method (RPMM)

In this paper, spatiotemporal variability of drought in Xilingol grassland during pasture growing season (from April to September) was investigated, using 52 years (1961–2012) of precipitation data recorded at 14 rain gauge stations in the study area. The Standardized Precipitation Index was used to compute the severity of drought. The Mann-Kendall test, the linear trend, and the sequential Mann-Kendall test were applied to standardized precipitation index (SPI) time series. The results indicate that drought has become increasingly serious on the region scale during pasture growing season, and the rate of SPI decreases ranged from ?0.112 to ?0.013 per decade. As for the MK test, most of the stations, the Z value range is from ?1.081 to ?0.005 and Kendall’s τ varies from ?0.104 to ?0.024. Meanwhile, drought is increased obviously from the northwest to the southeast region. Meanwhile, the occurrence probability of each severity class, times for reaching different drought class from any drought severity state, and residence times in each drought class have been obtained with Markov chain. Furthermore, the drought severities during pasture growing season in 2013–2016 are predicted depending on the weighted Markov chain. The results may provide a scientific basis for preventing and mitigating drought disaster.     

对县局雷达雨量标校站建设的具体做法和体会

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春季一次特殊的暴雨天气过程分析

对2000年春季一次高空槽快速移动影响的暴雨天气过程发生的特殊性进行分析,寻找这次暴雨过程发生的前期特征.     

一次大范围海效应暴雪的雷达反演风场分析

用EVAP(Extended Velocity Azimuth Processing)方法对2010年12月30日发生在山东半岛的一次海效应暴雪过程进行风场反演,以了解暴雪过程中雷达回波和低层风场的特征。得出以下结论:(1)烟台和威海暴雪发生时间不同步,降雪带有明显东移的过程,对应烟台强回波带逐渐向东移动,而威海回波位置少动。(2)雷达回波开始产生于渤海,减弱也始于渤海;强回波带的位置与风场的辐合区有很好的对应关系。(3)反演风场水平切变线的移动,会引起强回波带的波动;烟台北部切变线相对稳定,南部切变线西移,致使强回波带沿顺时针方向旋转;威海南部切变线位置相对稳定,北部切变线西移,引起强回波带沿逆时针方向旋转。(4)辐合切变线是由经过辽宁南下的东北风与山东半岛的西北风(西风)辐合构成;切变线受西风分量减弱的影响而发生移动。     

Water vapour transport from the tropical Atlantic and summer rainfall in tropical southern Africa

An empirical orthogonal functions analysis of the onshore flow of moisture along the west coast of southern Africa using NCEP-DOE AMIP II Re-analyses suggests two dominant modes of variability that are linked to (a) variations in the circulation linked with the South Atlantic anticyclone (b) the intensity of the flow that penetrates from the tropical Atlantic. The second mode, referred as the Equatorial Westerly mode, contributes the most to moisture input from the Atlantic onto the subcontinent at tropical latitudes. Substantial correlations in austral summer between the Atlantic moisture flux in the tropics and rainfall over the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin suggest the potential role played by this zonal mode of water vapour transport. Composites for austral summer months when this Equatorial Westerly mode had a particularly strong expression, show an enhanced moisture input at tropical latitudes that feeds into the deep convection occurring over the Congo basin. Sustained meridional energy fluxes result in above normal rainfall east and south of the Congo belt. During years of reduced equatorial westerly moisture flux, a deficit of available humidity occurs in the southern tropics. A concomitant eastward shift of deep convection to the southwest Indian ocean and southeastern Africa, leads to below normal rainfall over the uplands surrounding the Congo basin.     

一次雷暴前后大气折射率的多普勒天气雷达测量试验及结果

由温度、气压和水汽压决定的大气折射率会影响天气雷达电磁波的传播路径和目标回波的相位。因此,通过测量目标回波相位的变化能够算出大气折射率的变化,进而得到水汽信息,为研究局地对流天气和水汽平流提供资料。本文阐述了多普勒天气雷达反演大气折射率的原理和方法,并利用江苏省气象台的S波段多普勒天气雷达反演了一次雷暴过程前后的大气折射率,表明了雷达探测大气折射率的可靠性。这项工作有望为研究水汽变化和天气过程提供高分辨率的遥感资料,也可以为数值模式提供水汽场辅助数据,有良好的应用前景。     

华南前汛期暴雨C波段雷达特征应用研究

运用广州白云机场C波段雷达回波强度及径向风资料对华南前汛期强降水过程进行雨带降水估计及其移动特征预测.C波段雷达在雨量充沛地区的强降水背景下,尽管回波强度被衰减,但是近距离范围内其探测云雨精细化结构的能力较强.所采取的雷达数据质量控制系列处理,能够保留雷达数据原有特征,有效滤去杂波和噪声并缓解雷达低仰角数据杂波多、体扫面上沿径向远近高度差较大的问题,并对降水估测提供了技术保障.最优化雷达Z-I强降水估测方法基于单次过程体扫信息,具有计算简洁快速的特点,但是同一体扫面上云状差异对最优化方法参数值比较敏感,混用相同参数,影响降水估测效果.对同一体扫面上雷达云状回波进行区域划分,并选择对应测雨站点,做最优化参数分别确定,有效改善最优化雷达降水估测,提高了C波段雷达在机场近距离范围的应用效果.运用雷达体扫时间分辨率高的特点,识别雷达径向风辐合线以及强回波中心位置,并分别应用外推法预测雨带走向、移速等,验证效果良好.