基于CCSM3气候模式的同化模拟试验

基于美国NCAR及其他科学家合作发展的共同气候系统模式CCSM3,利用nudging方法开展了把15 m到465 m的次表层海温同化到该模式的研究。1980—2000年的同化试验结果表明,经过同化得到的模拟结果与实际较为一致,较好的再现了中低纬太平洋海洋和大气的平均特征和随时间演变的规律,但仍存在如海表温度偏高、降水偏强等问题。尤其是在大洋的东边界,陆地地形比较陡峭的地区,通常出现较大的偏差。     

基于回归模型的热带气旋条件下的海表降温参数化方案设计

Combining a linear regression and a temperature budget formula, a multivariate regression model is proposed to parameterize and estimate sea surface temperature(SST) cooling induced by tropical cyclones(TCs). Three major dynamic and thermodynamic processes governing the TC-induced SST cooling(SSTC), vertical mixing, upwelling and heat flux, are parameterized empirically using a combination of multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables:sea surface height(SSH), wind speed, wind curl, TC translation speed and surface net heat flux. The regression model fits reasonably well with 10-year statistical observations/reanalysis data obtained from 100 selected TCs in the northwestern Pacific during 2001–2010, with an averaged fitting error of 0.07 and a mean absolute error of 0.72°C between diagnostic and observed SST cooling. The results reveal that the vertical mixing is overall the pre dominant process producing ocean SST cooling, accounting for 55% of the total cooling. The upwelling accounts for 18% of the total cooling and its maximum occurs near the TC center, associated with TC-induced Ekman pumping. The surface heat flux accounts for 26% of the total cooling, and its contribution increases towards the tropics and the continental shelf. The ocean thermal structures, represented by the SSH in the regression model,plays an important role in modulating the SST cooling pattern. The concept of the regression model can be applicable in TC weather prediction models to improve SST parameterization schemes.     

The numerical simulation of Pacific Ocean circulation with five-level model

A five-level oceanic primitive equation model has been developed. This model is integrated numerically with annual mean wind stress and heat flux at sea surface for 30 a. The ocean circulations tend to quasi-stability. The simulated results show that the computed annual mean currents and sea surface temperature agree well with the observations.     

Intercomparison of three South China Sea circulation models

1IntroductionTheSouthChinaSeaisthelargesttropicalmarginaldeepsealocatingbetweenthewesternPacificOceanandtheeasternIndianOcean.AsapartofAsia-Australiamaritimecontinent,monsoonisaprimaryfactorforcingtheSouthChinaSeaCurrent(SCSC)variation.Drivenbynortheasterlymonsooninwinterandsouth-westerlymonsooninsummer,respectively,theSCSCbehavesacyclonicgyreandananticy-clonicgyre,correspondingly(Wyrtki,1961;Xuetal.,1982).Owingtotheshortageandexpen-sivenessofdirectobservationsintheSCS,fur-therunder…     

海洋对热带气旋响应的一种改进模式

建立一个改进的二层非线性原始方程海洋模式，研究海洋对热带气旋的响应。采用湍流动能收支参数化风应力产生的垂直混合（夹卷），其中考虑了盐度对层结强度的影响。通过海洋对７００２号台风响应的数值模拟，结果表明，在引起海表温度下降的各热通量分量中，夹卷约占了８３％，余下的海表面热通量占了１７％。在台风路径转向的右侧，海洋出现强烈的降温，表现出明显的右偏性。降温的幅度、范围和形状均与观测结果较为一致。     

海面温度半球间偶极子模态对7—11月北半球平均热带气旋强度年代际变化的调控

海面温度半球间偶极子(sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole,SSTID)是全球海面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)异常的重要模态之一,表现为南、北两半球间SST的反相变化。此文探究了7—11月SSTID对7—11月北半球平均热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)强度年代际变率的超前影响。观测分析表明,SSTID超前7—11月北半球平均TC强度年代际分量8~11 a,并在提前时间为9 a时达到最大正相关。通过海洋-大气耦合桥理论进一步分析表明,7—11月北半球TC活跃区海洋可以作为海洋桥,以SST的形式存储超前约9 a的SSTID信号。同时北半球TC活跃区大气作为大气桥将超前约9 a的SSTID信号传递到大气中,进而作用于7—11月北半球平均TC强度,该过程以TC潜在生成指数为表征。北半球TC活跃区的垂直风切变和600 hPa相对湿度的综合影响在其中起关键作用。由此建立了基于SSTID的7—11月北半球平均TC强度年代际变化预测模型,该模型表现出良好的后报性能。利用该模型对2021—2029年7—11月北半球平均TC强度预测表明,7—11月北半球平均TC强度将以持续增强为主并在2020年代末达到破纪录的强度。     

Impact of Ocean Mean Dynamic Topography on Satellite Data Assimilation

The response of an eddy-permitting ocean model to changes imposed by the use of different mean dynamic topographies (MDT) is analyzed in a multivariate assimilation context, allowing the evaluation of this impact, not only on the surface circulation, but also on the interior ocean representation. The assimilation scheme is a reduced-order sequential Kalman filter (SEEK). In a first set of experiments, high resolution sea surface temperature, along-track sea surface height and sea surface salinity from climatology are assimilated into a 1/3° resolution North and Tropical Atlantic version of the HYCOM model. In a second experiment, in situ profile data are assimilated in addition to the surface measurements.

The first set of experiments illustrates that important differences in the representation of the horizontal model circulation pattern are related to differences in the MDT used. The objective of assimilation is to improve the representation of the 3D ocean state. However, the imperfect representation of the mean dynamic topography appears to be an important limiting factor with regard to the degree of realism obtained in the simulated flow.

Vertical temperature and salinity profiles are key observations to drive a general circulation ocean model toward a more realistic state. The second set of experiments shows that assimilating them in addition to sea surface measurements is a far from trivial exercise. A specific difficulty is due to inconsistencies between the dynamic topography diagnosed from in situ observations and that diagnosed from sea surface height. These two fields obtained from different data sources do not contain exactly the same information. In order to overcome this difficulty, a strategy is proposed and validated.     

Impact of Ocean Mean Dynamic Topography on Satellite Data Assimilation

The response of an eddy-permitting ocean model to changes imposed by the use of different mean dynamic topographies (MDT) is analyzed in a multivariate assimilation context, allowing the evaluation of this impact, not only on the surface circulation, but also on the interior ocean representation. The assimilation scheme is a reduced-order sequential Kalman filter (SEEK). In a first set of experiments, high resolution sea surface temperature, along-track sea surface height and sea surface salinity from climatology are assimilated into a 1/3° resolution North and Tropical Atlantic version of the HYCOM model. In a second experiment, in situ profile data are assimilated in addition to the surface measurements.

The first set of experiments illustrates that important differences in the representation of the horizontal model circulation pattern are related to differences in the MDT used. The objective of assimilation is to improve the representation of the 3D ocean state. However, the imperfect representation of the mean dynamic topography appears to be an important limiting factor with regard to the degree of realism obtained in the simulated flow.

Vertical temperature and salinity profiles are key observations to drive a general circulation ocean model toward a more realistic state. The second set of experiments shows that assimilating them in addition to sea surface measurements is a far from trivial exercise. A specific difficulty is due to inconsistencies between the dynamic topography diagnosed from in situ observations and that diagnosed from sea surface height. These two fields obtained from different data sources do not contain exactly the same information. In order to overcome this difficulty, a strategy is proposed and validated.     

The response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone Viyaru over the Bay of Bengal

Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric process. The TC Viyaru is taken as an example, which is formed at the end of 11 May 2013 and sustains up to 17 May 2013 during pre-monsoon season. Argo data are used to investigate ocean response processes by comparing pre-and post-conditions of the TC. Eight oceanic parameters including the sea surface temperature(SST), the sea surface salinity(SSS), and the barrier layer thickness(BLT), the 26°C isotherm depth in the ocean(D26), the isothermal layer depth(ILD), the mixed layer depth(MLD), the tropical cyclone heat potential(TCHP) and the effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis(EOLC) are chosen to evaluate the pre-and post-conditions of the TC along the track of Viyaru. The values of the SST, D26, BLT, TCHP and EOLC in the pre-cyclonic condition are higher than the post-cyclonic condition, while the SSS, ILD and MLD in the post-cyclonic condition are higher than the pre-cyclonic condition of the ocean due to strong cyclonic winds and subsurface upwelling. It is interesting that the strong intensity of the TC reduces less SST and vice versa. The satisfied real time Argo data is not available in the northern Bay of Bengal especially in the coastal region. A weather research and forecasting model is employed to hindcast the track of Viyaru, and the satellite data from the National Center Environmental Prediction are used to assess the hindcast.     

用蒙特卡洛方法研究海洋盐度遥感误差

海洋的盐度观测对于气候和海洋科学的研究有重要的意义,盐度的卫星遥感观测需要估计各种因素带来的误差影响。本文基于海面微波辐射理论和海水相对电容率等模型,采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法研究了在盐度遥感中温度误差、仪器误差以及风速误差对于后续的盐度反演的影响。通过计算温度误差产生的盐度误差,并与敏感性方法的对比发现,在低温低盐时温度误差对盐度反演误差的影响较大,2种方法的偏差较大;而在高温高盐时温度误差对盐度反演误差的影响较小,2种方法的偏差较小。辐射计仪器噪声对盐度误差的影响普遍在0.1psu以上,在低温低盐时可达0.5psu以上。风速误差对盐度反演误差的影响在水平极化状态下随入射角增大,在温度低于20℃时普遍超过1psu;在垂直极化状态下随入射角先减小后增大,在温度低于20℃以及较小的入射角下误差也会超过1psu。对误差的综合分析发现,采用垂直极化状态在高温时这2种误差的影响较小。研究发现,当入射角是45.6°和垂直极化状态下,对于3种典型海面状态(35℃和35psu,20℃和35psu,5℃和30psu),反演的盐度反演误差可达到0.162,0.153和0.444psu,达到了卫星单次扫描对盐度反演的误差要求。     

Marine geodesy— a direction for the future

The sensitivity of the ocean mixed layer response to different parameters such as model horizontal resolution, vertical temperature gradient and eye size is investigated in response to moving Indian Ocean cyclone. For this, a one and one-half layer wind-driven reduced-gravity ocean model is forced with synthetic cyclonic vortex. The sensitivity studies are carried out for a cyclone moving along idealized tracks, initially and then for three observed cyclones (TC 01A), (TC02B) and (TC04A) during 2004. Increasing model resolution resulted in stronger ocean response. The role of initial vertical temperature gradient in modulating the ocean response is found to be important.     

Numerical study of the storm-induced circulation on the Scotian Shelf during Hurricane Juan using a nested-grid ocean model

A nested-grid ocean circulation modelling system is used to assess the upper ocean response of the Scotian Shelf and adjacent slope to Hurricane Juan in September 2003. The nested-grid system consists of a fine-grid inner model covering the Scotian Shelf/slope and a coarse-grid outer model covering the northwest Atlantic Ocean. The model-calculated upper ocean response to Hurricane Juan is characterized by large divergent surface currents forced by the local wind forcing under the storm, and intense near-inertial currents in the wake of the storm. The sea surface temperature (SST) cooling produced by the model is biased to the right of the storm track and agrees well with a satellite-derived analysis. Over the deep water, off the Scotian Shelf, some of the near-inertial energy input by the storm is advected eastward by the Gulf Stream away from the storm track. The hurricane also generates shelf waves that propagate equatorward with the coastline on their right. In comparison with the outer model results, the inner model captures more meso-scale structures, greater SST cooling and stronger near-inertial currents in the study region.     

渤海冰-海洋耦合模式——I．模式和参数研究

在国内外冰-海洋耦合模式研究基础上，根据渤海水文、气象和冰情特点，以国家海洋环境预报中心的渤海海冰预报模式和POM海洋模式为基础，开发了一个冰-海洋耦合模式．在该耦合模式中，冰和海洋之间的动量和热量交换是双向的，冰厚和冰密集度的变化不仅由冰表面和冰底的热收支决定，还由开阔水的表面热收支决定．侧重阐述了耦合模式的动力和热力学过程的耦合，并对模式中一些热力参数进行了讨论．     

气候模式中海洋数据同化对热带降水偏差的影响

本文采用海洋卫星观测海表温度(SST)和海面高度异常(SLA)数据,对国家海洋局第一海洋研究所地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 1.0)中海洋模式分量进行了集合调整卡尔曼滤波(EAKF)同化,对比分析了大气环流、湿度和云量对海洋数据同化的响应,探讨了海洋同化对热带降水模拟偏差的影响。结果表明:海洋数据同化能有效改善海表温度和上层海洋热含量的模拟,30°S~30°N纬度带内年平均SST的绝均差降低60%。同化后大气模式模拟的赤道两侧信风得到明显改善,上升气流在赤道以北热带地区增强而在赤道以南热带地区减弱,热带降水模拟的动力结构更为合理,水汽和云量分布也更切合实际。热带年平均降水的空间分布和强度在同化后均得到改善,赤道以南的纬向年平均降水峰值显著降低,降水偏差明显减小,同化后30°S~30°N纬度带内年平均降水绝均差降低35%。     

有限区域大气-海浪耦合模式的建立及海表粗糙度参数化试验

利用LINUX操作系统下的进程通讯(IPC)技术将中尺度大气模式MM5(V3)与第三代海浪模式WW3进行双向耦合,建立考虑大气-海浪相互作用的风浪耦合模式,在耦合模式中引入3种海表粗糙度参数化方案,通过对一次热带气旋过程的模拟,研究大气-海浪相互作用对热带气旋系统的影响及耦合模式对海表粗糙度参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明:LINUX系统下的进程通讯技术可以方便有效地实现大气和海浪模式的双向耦合,模式运行稳定;耦合模式能够较好的模拟热带气旋的发展和演变过程及其影响下海浪场的分布和演变,模拟结果对海表粗糙度参数化方案较敏感;海浪的反馈作用同时影响了海气间的动力和热力作用过程,不同的海表粗糙度参数化方案下,海浪对两种作用过程不同的影响程度决定了其对气旋系统强度的影响。     

The impact of ocean data assimilation on seasonal predictions based on the National Climate Center climate system model

An ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation method is applied in the BCC_CSM1.1 to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilations on seasonal forecasts in an idealized twin experiment framework. Pseudo-observations of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface salinity (SSS), temperature and salinity (T/S) profiles were first generated in a free model run. Then, a series of sensitivity tests initialized with predefined bias were conducted for a one-year period; this involved a free run (CTR) and seven assimilation runs. These tests allowed us to check the analysis field accuracy against the “truth”. As expected, data assimilation improved all investigated quantities; the joint assimilation of all variables gave more improved results than assimilating them separately. One-year predictions initialized from the seven runs and CTR were then conducted and compared. The forecasts initialized from joint assimilation of surface data produced comparable SST root mean square errors to that from assimilation of T/S profiles, but the assimilation of T/S profiles is crucial to reduce subsurface deficiencies. The ocean surface currents in the tropics were better predicted when initial conditions produced by assimilating T/S profiles, while surface data assimilation became more important at higher latitudes, particularly near the western boundary currents. The predictions of ocean heat content and mixed layer depth are significantly improved initialized from the joint assimilation of all the variables. Finally, a central Pacific El Ni?o was well predicted from the joint assimilation of surface data, indicating the importance of joint assimilation of SST, SSH, and SSS for ENSO predictions.     

北太平洋局地海洋-大气相互作用的主模态

本文分析美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的CCM3-ML耦合模式100 a积分模拟结果,依据对该模式结果中SSTA与海面风异常的最大协方差分析,证实的确存在北太平洋局地大气影响海洋和海洋"反馈"大气的主模态;指出通过局地海洋-大气的相互作用,冬季马蹄型海温异常可以持续到夏季,冬季大气对马蹄形暖海温异常可能的响应为高压异常,春夏季对马蹄形暖海温异常可能的响应为低压异常。     

海表面盐度的高精度预测模型

为了建立高精度的海洋表面盐度预测模型,采用BP神经网络的方法,针对SMOS卫星level 1C级亮度温度数据和辅助数据建立了一种海表面盐度预测模型,以ARGO浮标观测值作为海表盐度实测值来检验新模型预测结果的准确度,同时利用验证集对模型的精度进行验证.结果表明:通过新模型预测的海表盐度(SSS0)比SMOS卫星的3个粗...     

渤海冰-海洋耦合模式Ⅰ.模式和参数研究

在国内外冰-海洋耦合模式研究基础上,根据渤海水文、气象和冰情特点,以国家海洋环境预报中心的渤海海冰预报模式和POM海洋模式为基础,开发了一个冰-海洋耦合模式.在该耦合模式中,冰和海洋之间的动量和热量交换是双向的,冰厚和冰密集度的变化不仅由冰表面和冰底的热收支决定,还由开阔水的表面热收支决定.侧重阐述了耦合模式的动力和热力学过程的耦合,并对模式中一些热力参数进行了讨论.     

发展基于集合样本估计的SST张驰逼近方法用于气候模式的次表层海温场订正

An ensemble-based assimilation method is proposed for correcting the subsurface temperature field when nudging the sea surface temperature(SST) observations into the Max Planck Institute(MPI) climate model,ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This method can project SST directly to subsurface according to model ensemble-based correlations between SST and subsurface temperature. Results from a 50 year(1960–2009) assimilation experiment show the method can improve the subsurface temperature field up to 300 m compared to the qualitycontrolled subsurface ocean temperature objective analyses(EN4), through reducing the biases of the thermal states, improving the thermocline structure, and reducing the root mean square(RMS) errors. Moreover, as most of the improvements concentrate over the upper 100 m, the ocean heat content in the upper 100 m(OHT100 m)is further adopted as a property to validate the performance of the ensemble-based correction method. The results show that RMS errors of the global OHT100 m convergent to one value after several times iteration,indicating this method can represent the relationship between SST and subsurface temperature fields well, and then improve the accuracy of the simulation in the subsurface temperature of the climate model.