Improved SAL method and its application to verifying regional soil moisture forecasting

The regional verification of soil moisture is a vital step in evaluating and improving numerical model performance and utilizing forecast results. Currently, even with improved spatial and temporal resolutions of numerical model, verification methods for soil moisture data still rely on the traditional intensity verification parameters, such as mean error (ME) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE). Those methods provide only incomplete and sometimes inaccurate messages and thus hinder a proper evaluation of a forecast model. The SAL method is an object-based regional verification method with respect to precipitation forecasts. Based on the SAL method, a novel object-based method (SAL-DN) is proposed here, which can be used to test regional soil moisture. Both the ideal experiment and real experiment show that the SAL-DN method can reveal the differences between the observed and forecast soil moisture in three aspects: structure, amplitude, and location, and the results can reflect the actual situation. Furthermore, compared with the SAL method, the SAL-DN method is also capable of verifying physical quantities with high-value and low-value centers like temperature. Therefore, the SAL-DN method enhances verification accuracy and can be applied widely.     

Vector radiative transfer numerical model of coupled ocean-atmosphere system using matrix-operator method

A vector radiative transfer numerical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is developed based on the matrix-operator method, which is named PCOART. Using the Fourier analysis, the vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) is separated into a set of equations depending only on the observa-tion zenith angle. Using the Gaussian-Quadrature method, VRTE is finally transferred into the matrix equation solved by the adding-doubling method. According to the reflective and refractive properties of the ocean-atmosphere interface, the vector radiative transfer numerical model of the ocean and at-mosphere is coupled in PCOART. Compared with the exact Rayleigh scattering look-up tables of MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), it is shown that PCOART is an exactly numerical model, and the processing methods of the multi-scattering and polarization are correct. Also, validated with the standard problems of the radiative transfer in water, it is shown that PCOART can be used to calculate the underwater radiative transfer problems. Therefore, PCOART is a useful tool for exactly calculating the vector radiative transfer of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which can be used to study the polarization properties of the radiance in the whole ocean-atmosphere system and the remote sensing of the atmosphere and ocean.     

Using reanalysis‐driven regional climate model outputs for hydrology modelling

Bias correction methods are usually applied to climate model outputs before using these outputs for hydrological climate change impact studies. However, the use of a bias correction procedure is debatable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs between future and historical periods. The direct use of climate model outputs for impact studies has therefore been recommended in a few studies. This study investigates the possibility of using reanalysis‐driven regional climate model (RCM) outputs directly for hydrological modelling by comparing the performance of bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected climate simulations in hydrological simulations over 246 watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. When using RCM outputs directly, the hydrological model is specifically calibrated using RCM simulations. Two evaluation metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] and transformed root mean square error [TRMSE]) and three hydrological indicators (mean, high, and low flows) are used as criteria for this comparison. Two reanalysis‐driven RCMs with resolutions of 45 km and 15 km are used to investigate the scale effect of climate model simulations and bias correction approaches on hydrology modelling. The results show that nonbias‐corrected simulations perform better than bias‐corrected simulations for the reproduction of the observed streamflows when using NSE and TRMSE as criteria. The nonbias‐corrected simulations are also better than or comparable with the bias‐corrected simulations in terms of reproducing the three hydrological indicators. These results imply that the raw RCM outputs driven by reanalysis can be used directly for hydrological modelling with a specific calibration of hydrological models using these datasets when gauged observations are scarce or unavailable. The nonbias‐corrected simulations (at a minimum) should be provided to end users, along with the bias‐corrected ones, especially for studying the uncertainty of hydrological climate change impacts. This is especially true when using an RCM with a high resolution, since the scale effect is observed when the RCM resolution increases from a 45‐km to a 15‐km scale.     

交互集合耦合模式系统对北太平洋SST变率和ENSO的模拟检验

清华大学地球系统科学研究中心在一个标准耦合模式（SC）的基础上建立了交互集合耦合模式系统（IE）,该系统可以实现多个不同大气模式或者同一大气模式采取不同初值组成的多个分量集合之后与海、陆、冰模式进行耦合.本文利用同一大气模式七个不同初值分量与其它模式分量开展在线集合耦合试验,利用积分稳定之后100年的试验结果,分析了IE在减小海-气界面大气噪音的情况下,对北太平洋海表面温度（SST）变率和ENSO的模拟,并与SC模拟结果进行了对比.分析表明,IE减小了北太平洋中高纬度SST方差的85%以上,表明该区域SST变率主要受大气的影响,且主要是通过改变海表湍流热通量实现的.黑潮延伸体区和北太平洋中部副热带涡旋区域平均SST 8年左右的低频周期主要受来自大气内部动力过程的驱动.在集合耦合模拟中,无论是副热带涡旋区SST与ENSO的联系,还是ENSO与北太平洋中高纬度SST的联系都能模拟出来,而标准模式未能模拟出这些现象,意味着大气噪音过强将掩盖ENSO与太平洋热带外SST的联系.IE对与ENSO关联的“太平洋—北美”（PNA）遥相关型的合理模拟,并通过湍流热通量对海表温度的影响,是其能够更好模拟ENSO与北太平洋中高纬度SST关系的重要原因.本文通过分析验证了所建立的交互集合耦合模式系统的合理性,揭示了该系统在海-气相互作用研究领域方面具有一定应用前景.     

模型约束三维折射静校正方法研究

本文详细的介绍了模型约束三维折射静校正技术的基本原理和计算步骤,具体给出了三维抽线,目的层质量监控,三维速度内插,三维底界内插等技术的实现方法,并结合了西部某工区的具体实例加以说明.结果表明,这种由微测井、小折射求取近地表深度-时间速度模型,由大炮记录折射初至旅行时求取各点延迟时,两者联合反演低降速层底界的厚度和高程,最终求取低降速层静校正量的方法,可明显提高低降速带的反演精度,较好地解决表层结构复杂地区的静校正问题.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

矿井全空间孔中瞬变电磁响应积分方程法数值模拟研究

基于地面-钻孔瞬变电磁法,将发射源布设于煤矿巷道中,而将接收探头放置在钻孔内,从上至下依次观测,形成矿井巷道-钻孔瞬变电磁法.为了研究巷道全空间条件下巷道-钻孔瞬变电磁场的响应特征,选取煤层底板受水害威胁的代表性地层为研究对象,建立煤层底板存在含水低阻地质异常体的三维数学模型,采用积分方程法进行数值模拟,结果表明：相对高阻的煤层侧帮对孔内垂向感应电动势的影响较小,而对孔内水平感应电动势除浅部约30 m内影响相对较大外,对深部影响较小.当煤层底板含水平低阻板状异常体时,在对异常体的纵向分辨率和异常响应的延续时间方面,孔内感应电动势的水平分量相对优于垂向分量,但垂向感应电动势的幅值强于水平感应电动势.因此,实际观测时,不仅要观测孔内感应电动势的垂向分量,也要观测水平分量.

     

The implications of regional variations in rainfall for reconstructing rainfall patterns using tree rings

In Australia, multidecadal periods of floods and droughts have major economic consequences. Due to the short duration of Australian instrumental precipitation records, it is difficult to determine the patterns of these multidecadal periods. Proxy records can be used to create long‐term rainfall reconstructions for regions that are lacking instrumental data. However, the spatial extent over which single‐site proxy records can be applied is poorly understood. Southeast Queensland (SEQ) is an area where tree rings can be used to reconstruct long‐term rainfall patterns, but their regional representation is unknown. In this study, the spatial variability in rainfall across SEQ is investigated from 1908 to 2007 using 140 instrumental rainfall stations. Pearson correlation analysis between stations is used to create groups at the r = 0.80, 0.85, and 0.90 correlation levels, and then annual deviations from the mean are determined. These patterns indicate that rainfall is not uniform across SEQ but can be broken into 2 main spatially consistent groups. Each of these groups is broken down into several subgroups with higher correlation levels. Long‐term streamflow records are found to be correlated to rainfall patterns local to the streamflow stations, indicating that analysis of extreme events should consider spatial precipitation variability. Finally, the only currently available proxy rainfall reconstruction for the region, a 140‐year Toona ciliata tree ring width record from Lamington National Park, is compared to rainfall groups at different correlation levels across all of SEQ. The correlation between the reconstruction and the rainfall station groupings is best for the groups within which the tree‐ring record is spatially located, and this correlation improves as rainfall group correlation increases. Correlation is nearly nonexistent for groupings located at a distance from the tree‐ring site. These results demonstrate the importance of assessing the spatial variability of precipitation so that the spatial applicability of proxy records can be assessed.     

Model updating method for substructure pseudo‐dynamic hybrid simulation

Substructure hybrid simulation has been actively investigated and applied to evaluate the seismic performance of structural systems in recent years. The method allows simulation of structures by representing critical components with physically tested specimens and the rest of the structure with numerical models. However, the number of physical specimens is limited by available experimental equipment. Hence, the benefit of the hybrid simulation diminishes when only a few components in a large system can be realistically represented. The objective of the paper is to overcome the limitation through a novel model updating method. The model updating is carried out by applying calibrated weighting factors at each time step to the alternative numerical models, which encompasses the possible variation in the experimental specimen properties. The concept is proposed and implemented in the hybrid simulation framework, UI‐SimCor. Numerical verification is carried out using two‐DOF systems. The method is also applied to an experimental testing, which proves the concept of the proposed model updating method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploration of optimal time steps for daily precipitation bias correction: a case study using a single grid of RCM on the River Exe in southwest England

ABSTRACT

Bias correction is a necessary post-processing procedure in order to use regional climate model (RCM)-simulated local climate variables as the input data for hydrological models due to systematic errors of RCMs. Most of the present bias-correction methods adjust statistical properties between observed and simulated data based on a predefined duration (e.g. a month or a season). However, there is a lack of analysis of the optimal period for bias correction. This study attempted to address the question whether there is an optimal number for bias-correction groups (i.e. optimal bias-correction period). To explore this we used a catchment in southwest England with the regional climate model HadRM3 precipitation data. The proposed methodology used only one grid of RCM in the Exe catchment, one emissions scenario (A1B) and one member (Q0) among 11 members of HadRM3. We tried 13 different bias-correction periods from 3-day to 360-day (i.e. the whole of one year) correction using the quantile mapping method. After the bias correction a low pass filter was used to remove the high frequencies (i.e. noise) followed by estimating Akaike’s information criterion. For the case study catchment with the regional climate model HadRM3 precipitation, the results showed that a bias-correction period of about 8 days is the best. We hope this preliminary study on the optimum number bias-correction period for daily RCM precipitation will stimulate more research to improve the methodology with different climatic conditions. Future efforts on several unsolved problems have been suggested, such as how strong the filter should be and the impact of the number of bias correction groups on river flow simulations.

Editor M.C. Acreman Associate editor S. Kanae     

盐水泥浆条件下定向井双侧向测井环境校正方法研究

在定向井中,双侧向测井数据由于受井眼、围岩、井斜、径向侵入等环境因素的影响,难以准确地估算储层的电阻率和更准确地识别储层流体.本文拟提出图版法和反演法相结合的思路来研究地层视电阻率的校正问题.首先,针对研究区的测井环境和钻井液电阻率,计算了不同尺寸井眼的双侧向测井响应,绘制了井眼校正图版;然后,针对斜度井地层模型,采用三维有限元方法计算了不同井斜、不同厚度地层的测井响应,构建了井斜-围岩/层厚图版,利用该图版实现了井眼校正和井斜-围岩/层厚的电阻率快速校正.最后,针对钻井液侵入的影响,采用反演方法计算了侵入半径和地层真电阻率,最终实现了双侧向测井的环境校正.利用上述理论与方法对海洋中定向井的双侧向测井资料进行了环境校正,提高了储层流体定性识别和定量评价的精度.     

耦合有限单元法扩边的直流电阻率勘探无单元Galerkin法正演

本文分析了目前直流电阻率正演模拟中的无单元Galerkin法（EFGM）和有限单元法（FEM）的优缺点,针对采用第一类边界条件需要足够大的计算域时EFGM计算成本高的问题,在计算域外围区域采用FEM扩边,提出了直流电阻率的无单元Galerkin-有限单元耦合法（EFG-FE）.采用具有Kronecker delta函数性质的径向基点插值法（RPIM）构造EFGM形函数,在外围区域将EFGM与FEM直接耦合,无需其他处理手段,消除了传统EFGM与FEM耦合中存在的界面耦合困难.EFG-FE将模型计算域分割为EFGM区域和FEM区域,模型核心区域采用EFGM计算,发挥EFGM灵活性、适应性强和高精度的优点,使得模型建立简单方便,对任意复杂地电模型适应性强,同时获得高精度模拟结果.在模型计算域外围采用快速扩展的FEM单元网格进行剖分,利用其数值稳定性和高效性,使用少量FEM节点和单元网格将计算域大范围扩大满足第一类边界条件,同时不大幅增加计算成本,进而提高计算效率.最后,通过不同正演方法的模型算例的模拟结果对比,验证了本文提出的EFG-FE有效可行,其模拟结果具有很高的模拟精度,且相比于采用第三类边界条件的EFGM提高了计算效率,具有更好的模拟性能.

     

Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model

A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.     

液化场地地震反应的离散元数值模拟

采用一个描述饱和砂土中固相颗粒和液相流体耦合的离散元数值模型,固相颗粒采用离散元的颗粒流理论(PFC)模拟,液相流体通过求解平均Navier-Stokes方程的计算流体动力学(CFD)技术计算.采用上述模犁数值模拟了在地震荷载作用液化场地的加速度、剪应力、剪应变时程以及超孔隙水压力和土层表面位移的发展过程.数值模拟结果...     

降雨动态系统响应曲线修正方法在黄土区域水沙模拟中的应用

采用水沙模型对流域水沙过程进行计算是目前分析和研究黄土地区水土流失、水沙锐减等问题的有效途径由于降雨的时段均化和缺测、漏测、误测等问题,导致水沙模型的重要输入项和动力因子——降雨资料存在误差,进而影响水流和泥沙过程模拟精度因此,本研究将降雨动态系统响应曲线的误差修正方法与概念性水沙模拟模型相结合以提高水沙过程模拟精度此方法将水沙模型的水流模拟部分看作响应系统,通过修正水沙模型的重要输入项——面平均雨量,利用修正之后的面平均雨量系列,通过模型重新计算以提高模型对产汇流和产汇沙过程的模拟精度通过理想案例验证该方法可行性后,选择黄土地区曹坪流域进行检验,结果表明修正后的水流和泥沙过程模拟精度均有显著提高,平均提高幅度分别为17.56%和15.86%.     

海洋重力勘探中的完全布格校正

海洋重力测量由于海底地形的复杂性,需要在简单布格校正的基础上加入海底地形校正,从而使理论地球模型更好的符合实际的地球椭球体.本文总结了完全布格校正的理论,从空间域和频率域的角度对中间层和地形校正的方法作了介绍,并引入了一种综合的方法且将之运用到了实际的工作中,并取得了很好的效果.     

瞬变电磁法中关断电流的响应计算与校正方法研究

关断电流的存在直接影响仪器的探测能力和数据资料的解释.为了分析和校正这种影响,文中给出了关断时间的计算方法,根据多匝回线源产生的瞬变场理论解析式,计算了线性和半正弦关断电流影响下瞬变场表达式,计算半正弦关断电流产生的瞬变场时将正弦函数进行泰勒展开;分析了关断时间在2μs～100 μs之间两种关断模式产生的瞬变响应.结果显示;同一关断时间下线性关断电流和半正弦关断电流对瞬变场的影响主要表现在"早期",并且随观测时间的增加影响逐渐减弱.同时,关断时间越长,关断效应对瞬变场的影响越向瞬变"晚期"延伸;半正弦关断电流对瞬变场的影响大于线性关断电流.当关断时间为100 μs时,关断电流产生的瞬变场曲线约在0.5 ms之后与理论曲线重合.研究结果为数据处理和仪器开发提供参考.     

Evaluation and bias correction of SNODAS snow water equivalent (SWE) for streamflow simulation in eastern Canadian basins

ABSTRACT

In snow-dominated basins, collection of snow data while capturing its spatio-temporal variability is difficult; therefore, integrating assimilation products could be a viable alternative for improving streamflow simulation. This study evaluates the accuracy of daily snow water equivalent (SWE) provided by the SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) of the National Weather Service at a 1-km² resolution for two basins in eastern Canada, where SWE is a critical variable intensifying spring runoff. A geostatistical interpolation method was used to distribute snow observations. SNODAS SWE products were bias-corrected by matching their cumulative distribution function to that of the interpolated snow. The corrected SWE was then used in hydrological modelling for streamflow simulation. The results indicate that the bias-correction method significantly improved the accuracy of the SNODAS products. Moreover, the corrected SWE improved the simulation performance of the peak values. Although the uncertainty of SNODAS estimates is high for eastern Canadian basins, they are still of great value for regions with few snow stations.     

黄土高原大理河流域水沙耦合模型应用研究

水沙模型是定量描述水沙关系及水沙规律的重要工具,现阶段国内外对于水沙模型的研究大都为基于某个典型流域的经验统计模型或基于流域大量基础资料的物理模型,极大限制了其使用范围及模拟精度.本文建立了结构与参数均具有物理意义的流域水沙耦合物理概念模型,其优点是物理概念清楚,模拟精度高,实用性强,易于深入研究泥沙基本规律.该模型将概念性水文模型和泥沙模型耦合,提出水流挟沙能力和土壤抗侵蚀能力概念,用对数曲线近似描述流域土壤抗侵蚀能力的空间变异性,在拜格诺河道水流悬移质泥沙公式基础上建立概念性沟蚀产沙公式,参照水流汇集相似性建立泥沙汇集演算公式.选取黄河中游大理河流域4个不同流域尺度的实际流域对模型进行应用检验,模拟结果表明,该模型的水流泥沙两部分均有很高的模拟精度,可以很好地模拟黄河中游地区不同流域尺度和年际尺度上的洪水过程和泥沙产生及输移过程,充分证明了该模型结构、参数和计算方法的合理性,可用于定量分析流域内各项水保措施的减水减沙效益及水沙关系变化趋势,对该模型的推广应用可做进一步分析研究.     

结构磁流变阻尼半主动控制的改进算法与仿真分析

基于线性二次型最优控制理论,结合磁流变阻尼器装置的出力特点,提出了结构磁流变阻尼半主动控制的两种改进算法：以速度负反馈渐进逼近主动最优的界限滑动半主动控制算法和基于结构响应状态组合反馈的界限开关半主动控制算法。首先给出了采用磁流变阻尼器装置控制结构振动的系统框图,然后结合一个三层Benchmark模型,仿真分析其在多种地震输入工况下,LQR、磁流变阻尼两种半自动和两种被动控制下的控制效果,最后给出了Benchmark评价指标。