突水量数量化预测模型及其应用

选取对大煤底板八灰突水水量有影响的地质因素,如构造,岩溶,矿压,突水系数,新定水点至老突水点的最近距离为自变量,以最大突水量、稳定突水量为基准变量,用“数量化理论”评定性变量数量化,与定量变量联合建立焦作东部矿区的八灰突水量预测模型,经检验两个模型预测突水量相对误差小于１者大于７２．５％,实测值与各自变量组合的复相系数在０．７以上,对７个实际例子预测效果较好,从理论和实例上都说明所建模型可信,可用     

陕渑煤田构造控水机理

在地质与水文地质资料系统分析的基础上,以构造动力演化为主线,深入探讨了陕渑煤田构造发育、组合、性质及其分布规律,阐述了地质构造对地下水的控制机理。结果表明:印支期和燕山期构造运动奠定了陕渑煤田主体构造格局,构造运动不仅控制了含水系统的结构形态,而且直接影响到地下水动力条件,尤其燕山期形成的NNE向构造对含水层改造最为明显;地质构造越复杂,岩层富水性就越强,且富水区多位于断层端部或其两侧影响带范围内;矿井突水点在构造复杂区域分布显著增多,大部分的突水点位于小断层附近,褶皱轴部及转折部位也是突水的高发区域。      

桌子山煤田构造控水机理研究

查明地质构造对桌子山煤田岩溶地下水的控制规律和矿井突水的影响,基于大量地质原始资料和矿井突水资料,进行理论分析和现场实测。研究表明：桌子山煤田以近南北向的压扭性主构造和东西向的张性次级构造构成立体网格导水体系,地质构造不仅控制着岩溶地下水系统的边界,而且直接影响水动力条件。地质构造越复杂,岩溶裂隙越发育,富水性也越强,西北地区第一例岩溶陷落柱即在此体系内形成。断裂构造与突水点位置联系紧密,中小型突水点多位于东西向小断层附近,中型以上突水点多位于东西向和南北向断层交汇处的地下水强径流带。     

同位素与水文地球化学方法在矿井突水水源判别中的应用

通过对抚顺老虎台矿区各类水体的同位素及水化学特征研究,阐述了地表水与矿井各开采水平及73003#突水点的同位素和水化学特征及其相互关系,论证了矿井上覆白垩系砾岩含水层与73003#突水点的联系。研究表明：73003#突水点的同位素及水化学特征与地表水及其他开采水平差异较大,而与白垩系砾岩水的同位素及水化学特征相似。根据同位素、水化学特征及混合计算发现,突水点的水是白垩系地下水与第四系地下水的混合,且白垩系砾岩水占67%,占主导作用;矿井突水通道为活化的F1断层。     

新峰一矿构造控水作用与治理措施探讨

新峰一矿突水频繁,矿井安全受水害威胁严重,防治工程量大、难度高。通过对矿井构造应力展布规律、矿井边界及矿井内断层导水性等水文地质因素的分析,确定了该矿井突水类型。指出石炭系灰岩裂隙水和寒武系灰岩裂隙水是矿井的主要充水含水层,断裂构造是主要导水通道。地质构造对突水的控制在该矿主要体现在对突水点分布、富水带的划分以及隔水层阻水能力等方面。在对影响该区地质构造机理进行综合分析的基础上,根据矿区构造控水的特点,提出了采取物探和钻探相结合、进行放水试验、帷幕注浆和排供结合的治理措施。     

采场底板突水相似材料模拟研究

利用相似材料模拟试验，模拟了采场底板突水机理。实验表明，在无断层构造条件下，底板在承压水作用下呈Ｏ－Ｘ型破坏，并且在Ｏ与Ｘ的交点处最容易产生突水通道；在有断层构造条件下，断层突水的实质是在承压水作用下断层两盘的关键层向上产生相对移差。当断层越易产生最大位移差时，越容易突水；在突水的同时还伴随着断层带充填的冲刷。     

山东霄云煤矿陷落柱突水治理实践

突水是矿山的主要灾害之一,矿井突水一般来势凶猛,常会在短时间内淹没坑道,给矿山生产带来危害,造成人员伤亡。在富水的岩溶水充水的矿区及顶底板有较厚高压含水层分布的矿山区,在构造破碎的地段,常易发生矿井突水。但只要查明水文地质条件,采取措施,矿井突水是可以预防和治理的。山东霄云煤矿1313工作面突水水量大,而工作面无钻孔,两顺槽掘进中发现的9条断层也不导水,判断不是钻孔、断层导水。突水事故发生后,通过水位、水温及水质化验分析,确定为奥灰水,导水通道为隐伏陷落柱。通过对突水点进行盖帽封堵、对突水通道进行注浆封堵,有效地封堵了过水通道,并满足了《煤矿防治水细则》的要求。     

断层参数对承压水体上采煤的影响分析

根据流固耦合理论,采用有限元数值模拟的方法,针对承压水体上采煤过程中断层参数(断距、倾角)对煤层、围岩的应力、变形和水压力变化的影响进行了模拟分析,探讨了存在断层时突水的机理和可能的突水点位置,并定量分析了防水煤柱的预留距离。得出以下结论:(1)当存在正断层时,多发生断层破坏型突水,而底板破坏型突水发生的几率较小;(2)突水性质和突水发生位置受断层断距和倾角的影响不大,煤层和采煤工作面附近的底板围岩都可能成为突水涌出点;(3)随着断层断距和倾角的增加,防水煤柱的合理留设距离应随之增大。以上结果可为实际矿井采煤防突水设计提供参考。 更多还原     

深部开采隐伏构造扩展活化及突水试验研究

深部开采突水具有突发性、滞后性和强致灾性等特点,研究突水通道成因、演变规律和致灾机制成为控制深部开采底板突水的关键。大量的防治水实践和理论证实,构造突水通道一般发生在构造与岩层接触面处,为此建立隐伏构造条块体突水判据模型,应用剪切破坏理论方法得到突水理论判据;借助深部承压水上底板断层扩展活化及导水通道演化物理模拟试验,研制了固-流耦合相似材料,选取模拟断层破坏活化的材料并进行了模拟材料的可行性分析;试验直观地展现了含隐伏断层底板在采动应力扰动和高承压水共同作用下底板裂隙形成、隐伏断层扩展、突水通道贯通的全过程。通过对试验监测数据和现象的解读,揭示了应力场-渗流场耦合作用下承压水体上采煤底板滞后突水的机制,并对突水路径形成的时空规律进行了分析探讨,为研究深部开采构造突水提供了新的方法和认识。     

煤矿断层构造复杂程度的非线性分析

煤矿中断层构造对开采条件、瓦斯突出、矿井突水等都有显著的影响。以陈四楼煤矿为例,利用分形理论计算了深部采区断层构造的分维,对断层构造的复杂程度进行了讨论和划分;分析了不同区域断层构造分维值出现差异的原因;建立了断层构造分维与矿井突水单位涌水量的对应关系,随断层分维的增加,矿井突水的单位涌水量也将随之增大。研究区的断层分维在0.7925～1.4534,断层总体的复杂程度为中等。     

基于LSTM神经网络的煤矿突水预测

针对煤层底板突水预测问题,在总结现有突水预测方法和理论的基础上,通过特征选择实验得出水压、距工作面距离、砂岩段厚度、煤层厚度、煤层倾角、断层落差、裂隙带、开采面积、采高、走向长度是影响突水发生的主要因素,这些因素具有复杂、非线性的特点。提出基于长短时记忆（LSTM）神经网络构建的突水预测模型,将煤矿突水实例的数据作为样本数据对模型进行训练。最后,将LSTM神经网络模型与遗传算法-反向传播（GA-BP）神经网络模型和反向传播（BP）神经网络模型进行对比实验。实验结果表明,LSTM神经网络模型在测试集上的预测正确率更高,稳定性更好,更适用于煤层底板突水预测。      

基于SSA优化的GA-BP神经网络煤层底板突水预测模型与应用

随煤层开采深度的不断增加,煤矿生产过程中面临着复杂的突水机理和多变的突水主控因素,且各因素间相互联系的不确定性,使底板突水预测的难度不断增加。为准确预测底板突水危险性,针对底板突水的小样本、非线性问题,首先利用遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)将网络随机赋值的初始权值和阈值初次优化,再选取搜索能力强、稳定性较好的麻雀搜索算法(Sparrow Search Algorithm,SSA)对权值和阈值进行二次寻优,从而建立SSA-GA-BP神经网络底板突水预测模型。分析整理山东省滨湖煤矿地质及水文地质资料,选取含水层水压、含水层厚度、隔水层厚度、断层密度、断层分维值、渗透系数、单位涌水量、底板破坏深度共8个因素,作为预测底板突水的主控因素,绘制各主控因素3D映射投影曲面图;利用Surfer软件中的克里金插值法提取50个数据点作为模型的输入样本(分为训练集40个,测试集10个),对模型进行训练学习,训练误差精度达到要求后,对滨湖煤矿3个未开采工作面的12个数据点进行突水危险性预测。为了验证所建模型的准确性,利用BP、GA-BP、SSA-GA-BP这3种模型对测试集进行预测;为避免模型仅与BP网络预测对比的片面性,同时选取以熵权法确定权重的模糊综合评判法对测试集进行预测;将各网络模型及方法的预测结果与实际值进行对比分析。结果表明:基于SSA优化的GA-BP神经网络模型突水预测误差较小,预测结果准确率更高,为矿井水害预测预报提供了科学的评价方法和理论依据。      

Assessment of water inrush risk using the principal component logistic regression model in the Pandao coal mine,China

In order to improve the accuracy of floor water inrush assessment, the risk prediction model of floor water inrush was established by combining the principal component logistic regression analysis (PCLRA) and GIS spatial geographic analysis. In this paper, the geological data of Pandao coal mine was taken as the engineering background. First of all, main controlling factors of floor water inrush were determined and quantified. Next, PCLRA was used to determine the weight of each factor and establish the mathematical model for predicting the floor water inrush. And then, GIS’s spatial analysis and data processing function was used to draw related single factor thematic maps. Related thematic maps were weighted superposed to draw a floor water inrush zoning map based on PCLRA mathematical model. The study areas were divided into five levels by Jenks optimization method and vulnerability index initial model. And the corresponding threshold range was determined. The results show that (1) the high sensitivity factors in floor failure depth were added to evaluate the water inrush, and the fault fractal dimension was used to replace the fault structure related factors, and the main controlling factors of floor water inrush are more comprehensive; (2) the fitting degree of PCLRA model is high and the test accuracy is 83.3%; (3) the prediction results were well fitted to the actual position of water inrush (three water inrush points are located in the dangerous area, and two water inrush points are located in the relatively dangerous area).     

Application on Floor Water Inrush Evaluation Based on AHP Variation Coefficient Method with GIS

The prediction and prevention of floor water inrush is directly related to the safety of the coal mine production. The previous evaluation method of floor water inrush was more one-sided and lacked main control factors related to mining conditions. In order to evaluate the floor water inrush more accurately, under the project background of geological data of Wanglou coal mine, stope width, mining depth, fault scale index, water pressure, water abundance and thickness of aquifer were selected as main controlling factors of floor water inrush. Combined with the subjective weight analytical hierarchy process and the objective weight variation coefficient method, the weight coefficients corresponding to the main controlling factors were obtained respectively. The thematic map of the risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush was drawn by combining the constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model and geographic information system. The results show that: ① according to the actual geological data of mine, two fault related factors were removed. And stope width and mining depth were increased as the main controlling factors to evaluate floor water inrush. It is easier to compare and calculate the weight of evaluation factors. ② The constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model can comprehensively evaluate the risk of floor water inrush. And the results of the evaluation are more accurate. ③ The related thematic maps can directly reflect the risk of floor water inrush, which is of guiding significance for the prediction and prevention of coal seam floor water inrush.     

基于BP神经网络方法的矿井涌水量预测

鉴于矿井涌水威胁煤矿安全生产及其影响因素的复杂性,提出基于BP神经网络的矿井涌水量预测方法.在充分分析新安煤矿＋25m开采水平的涌水影响因素的基础上,选取大气降水、采空区面积和底板构造断裂和采动裂隙三个影响因子,建立了非线性人工神经网络预测模型,对＋25m开采水平的正常涌水量进行了预计.其结果和实际观测数据能够较好地相吻合,表明采用人工神经网络预计矿井涌水量是可行的.     

Groundwater outbursts from faults above a confined aquifer in the coal mining

Groundwater outburst has an impartible relationship with geological structures such as water-conducting faults, which are widely distributed in north China. In order to study the seepage property and mechanism of water outburst from the faults above a confined aquifer in the coal mining, the simulation model of ground water inrush for fault was designed. The water outburst parameters, such as water inflow, permeability, seepage velocity, porosity and other variables under different material combination and water pressures, were obtained; the research results indicate as follows: (1) The changes of the water inflow can be divided into three stages, i.e., the water inflow slowly increases at the early stage, rapidly increases at the middle stage and keeps unchanged at the late stage. (2) The seepage process can be represented by the seepage combination types, which are composed of pore flow, fissure flow and pipe flow, and the seepage changes not only with time but also with different conditions. (3) Mining would lead to the reactivation of faults and further enhance the permeability of fault zone potentially. The tiny granules in fault would be eroded and moved to exterior as the time under the high water pressure and lead to the change of porosity parameters. In this case, the seepage velocity would increase ceaselessly, and then the seepage would convert into pipe flow and finally lead to water inrush accidents.     

断层破碎带突水突泥演化特征试验研究

为了研究富水断层破碎带隧道突水突泥灾害演化机制,自行研制了一套可考虑质量迁移及地应力状态的大型室内突水突泥试验系统。利用该装置开展了不同水压加载方式、不同破碎带介质参数等条件的断层破碎带突水突泥灾害演化过程模拟试验。结果表明：（1）断层破碎带突水突泥灾害演化是渗流?侵蚀强耦合过程,在水压作用下,破碎带介质中的细颗粒首先发生迁移,导致充填介质孔隙结构增加,进而加速细颗粒流失,促使涌水率不断增长,随着细颗粒不断迁移流失,水流流态由层流转换为紊流,最终诱发突水突泥灾害;（2）破碎带介质初始孔隙率和施加水压越大越易诱发突水突泥,介质渗流演化特征越明显,渗流场参量如渗透率、孔隙率、雷诺数增加越快,且渗流场参量演化曲线出现突增现象;（3）梯度水压加载模式下断层破碎带介质较恒定水压加载条件下突水突泥演化特征更明显,介质发生突水突泥的临界水压更小。在此基础上,基于涌水率?时间（Q-t）、水力梯度?涌水率（i-Q）关系的流态转换分析和基于渗透率?水力梯度（k-i）关系的渗透性演化特征,建立了断层破碎带渗透演化特征概化模型。该研究结果对于断层破碎带突水突泥灾害演化机制与防治措施具有一定的理论指导价值。     

A case study of water inrush incident through fault zone in China and the corresponding treatment measures

In 2010, a water inrush accident through a fault with a high flow rate occurred at Tianzhuang coal mine in Jining, Shandong Province, China, which was subject to the fault excavation. Grouting is an important treatment method before and after water inrush accidents. In this paper, the evolution of this water inrush accident is studied, and the effective treatment method is presented. The obtained results indicate that groundwater from Ordovician limestone aquifer 28.5 m below the floor flowed into the roadway through the fault zone. Results also show that this water inrush through the fault zone can be divided into a flow rate steady increase phase, a rapidly increase phase, a decrease phase, and a steady phase. The first two phases resulted from permeability increase of the fault, which was caused by seepage failure, and water level of the aquifer led to last two phases. Additionally, grouting using the ground borehole successfully controlled this water inrush accident, and it is proven to be a valid method.