Using stochastic population process models to predict the impact of climate change

More than ten years ago a paper was published in which stochastic population process models were fitted to time series of two marine polychaete species in the western Wadden Sea, The Netherlands (Van der Meer et al., 2000). For the predator species, model fits pointed to a strong effect of average sea surface winter temperature on the population dynamics, and one-year ahead model forecasts correlated well with true observations (r = 0.90). During the last decade a pronounced warming of the area occurred. Average winter temperature increased with 0.9 °C. Here we show that despite the high goodness-of-fit whilst using the original dataset, predictive capability of the models for the recent warm period was poor.     

海洋资源分类体系研究

文章系统地总结了海洋资源分类的现状,对其分类中存在的问题进行了剖析并提出了可操作的分类思路.按照海洋生物资源、海洋矿产资源、海洋化学资源、海洋空间资源和海洋能量资源的"五分法"原则,编制了海洋资源分类简表并进行了简要的评析.     

论我国海洋资源的特性与价值

由于我国人口众多,陆地资源日趋短缺,海洋以其巨大的空间、丰富的资源优势正越来越受到人们的青睐。向海洋索取财富,变海洋资源优势为海洋经济优势已经成为我国社会经济发展新的增长点。随着海洋开发的逐渐深入和扩大,过去一些不曾暴露的问题逐渐显现出来。比如过去海洋一直被人类当做取之不尽、用之不竭的巨大宝库,人类可以不付出任何经济补偿就可以开采海洋资源,而海洋资源价值的提高,又促使众多部门纷纷下海,更谈不上什么对海洋资源与环境的保护问题。可是现在,海洋污染与资源枯竭已经影响到对海洋的开发利用。过去那种任意占用海洋空间…     

On the use of current meter data to assess the realism of ocean model simulations

The evaluation of ocean simulations against observed datasets is essential to assess their realism and to guide model development, but often remains qualitative, and ignores certain datasets. This paper presents a three-dimensional, quantitative comparison of a 1/6° Atlantic numerical simulation (CLIPPER) with the WOCE current meter dataset in terms of mean velocity and eddy kinetic energy. Our metrics reveal the good behaviour of CLIPPER open boundary conditions and forcing with respect to full-depth current records. Due to its still moderate resolution, however, the model globally underestimates the observed mean speeds and eddy activity. This discrepancy is barely noticeable at low latitudes but increases toward the poles, probably since the poleward decrease of the Rossby radius exceeds that of the horizontal grid step. At least in this eddy-admitting regime, it is suggested that the numerics of geopotential-coordinate models like ours dissipate mean and eddy momentum at depth and adversely affect current–topography interactions.     

湛江海洋资源开发对策

湛江市包括5县(市)4区,人口657万,位于祖国大陆最南端,海岸线长达1556公里,占广东省的46％,占全国的5％,人均岸线为全国人均岸线的10倍。湛江在全国沿海地级市中属海域面积最大、岸线系数最高的区域,海洋资源极其丰富,发展海洋经济具有得天独厚的优势。如何合理开发、利用湛江海洋资源,把资源优势转化为经济优势,是振兴湛江区域经济的一项重大战略举措。 1 湛江海洋资源分析 1.1 资源优势明显,开发潜力巨大     

On the role of integral feedbacks in stochastic climate models

Using a stochastic approach with zero-dimensional energy-balance models, we consider the problem of periodic climate changes and the influence of integral feedbacks on climate oscillations. Based on the resulting linear integral–differential stochastic equation, we calculate the spectrum of fluctuations of average surface-air temperature and determine its statistical properties. We analyze the influence of proper cycles of inertial units and “slow” nonstationarity on the fluctuation spectrum.     

浅论江苏海洋空间资源的开发路径

为了促进江苏海洋空间资源科学合理地开发利用,使江苏沿海开发步入科学发展道路,根据江苏沿海海洋空间资源的优势及其开发中面临的诸多挑战,从江苏沿海独特的港航空间资源、岛屿空间资源以及滩涂和沙洲空间资源等条件着手,提出江苏沿海空间资源一系列的开发路径,为江苏沿海新一轮开发提出更有力的科学依据和发展思路.     

自然资源信息化框架下海洋资源数据管理体系设计有关思考

自然资源信息化总体建设方案提出了建立自然资源“一张图”的大数据体系,海洋资源是自然资源的重要组成部分,开展海洋资源数据管理体系设计是将其有机融入自然资源大数据体系的一项基础工作.本文以现有国家海洋数据管理体系为基础,从海洋资源的有关概念和分类入手,分析了在自然资源信息化总体框架下,海洋资源数据管理体系建设的发展形势和需求,探讨了海洋资源数据管理体系总体设计思路与主体框架,并对下一步海洋资源数据管理体系的建设运行提出建议.     

海洋资源要素对海洋经济增长的影响研究

为提高海洋生产要素配置效率以及实现海洋资源高效开发利用,推动我国海洋经济的高质量发展,文章基于门槛效应机制分析和检验,从非线性效应角度分析海洋资源要素对海洋经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:海洋资源要素对海洋经济增长存在显著的门槛效应;海洋资源的扩张消费具有一定的经济代价,在不同的门槛区间,海洋资源要素消费的经济代价程度不一;吸引社会资本进入海洋领域、提高海洋科技水平以及促进产业结构升级优化都将显著降低海洋资源消耗的经济代价;亟须通过政企合作、培育优势海洋新兴产业集群式发展以及促进海洋科技进步和成果转化等方式,突破海洋资源约束"瓶颈",提高海洋资源要素的投入报酬率,加快海洋经济增长方式向集约型转变。     

论山东半岛蓝色经济区建设过程中海洋资源的科学开发

海洋资源包括海洋生物资源、海洋矿产资源、海洋能源以及海洋空间资源四大种类.海洋资源要实现科学开发,必须按照各资源的不同属性和特点,灵活运用各种开发模式和管理模式,才能实现海洋资源的科学开发,为山东半岛蓝色经济区的建设和山东海洋经济的可持续发展提供坚实的基础.     

The use of (14)C tracer technique to assess the functional response of zooplankton community grazing to toxic impact

The use of functional endpoints in risk assessment of pollutants for marine pelagic communities is scarce, especially for the function of zooplankton communities. This work presents a rapid, inexpensive and ecologically relevant technique to assess the effect of toxic compounds on the grazing rates of zooplankton communities. The combination of a (14)C-tracer labelling technique with a fast (< 3 h) and representative sub-sampling and handling makes it possible to measure changes in food uptake of freshly collected natural zooplankton communities in a short-term assay. The methodology is described and its validity is determined by a full account of the fate of isotope tracers (up to 15% taken up by zooplankton). Egg production of Acartia tonsa cultures exposed to DCOI yielded EC(50) values of 118+/-33 nM DCOI after three days, where EC(50) values from grazing of natural zooplankton communities was 136+/-29 nM DCOI, indicating that grazing was the more sensitive variable. Finally the method was tested in a mesocosm experiment designed to evaluate the toxicity of the antifouling compound zinc pyrithion (ZPT) with an EC(50) value of 17 nM ZPT (SD=3.3 nM, n=3). The method was found to be reproducible both at the community (CV=8-39%) and individual level (CV=23-53%), and could detect small changes in response to a toxicant in a natural pelagic system. The use of natural communities in combination with the fast and cost-effective procedure makes this technique a powerful tool in risk assessment, where lack of ecological relevance or reproducible results often results in unwanted high uncertainties.     

探讨资源可持续利用的海洋产业发展思路

目前,我国海洋产业发展中仍然存在结构和布局上的问题,解决这些问题的科学方法固然十分重要,但对海洋产业发展思路的认识问题却是根源性问题.海洋经济关系的核心在于各种海洋资源的价值及其产生的效益.以可持续理念为原则、以科技为推动力、以各种海洋资源为开发和利用对象,促进海洋产业合理健康发展,是海洋经济可持续发展的总体思路.因此,在海洋产业发展思路上,重视科技引领、科技人才培养、建设海洋生态文明、实行海陆一体化战略四大方面是具有重要意义的.     

科学开发管理海洋资源促进海洋经济又好又快发展

东台市位于江苏省中部的黄海之滨,水土肥沃、物产丰饶.21世纪之初,江苏省委、省政府以沿海开发为重点,作出了加快建设海上苏东的重大战略部署.百万东台人民乘风乘势,以贯彻实施《中华人民共和国海域使用管理法》、《江苏省海域使用管理条例》和《江苏省蒋家沙竹根沙海域管理暂行办法》为契机,以大力发展海水养殖业为重点,强化依法管海用海,注重科技兴海,坚持保护性开发利用,不断加快海洋经济开发步伐,使海洋经济发展取得了明显成效.     

应用全球定位系统、地理信息系统和遥感技术实现海洋资源与环境的可持续发展

分析了当前我国海洋资源及环境的现状,并提出相应的对策。举例说明了全球定位系统(GPS)、地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感(RS)(合称为3S)在海洋资源调查、环境保护等可持续发展核心问题中的应用,提出一些海洋领域近期亟待应用3S技术的重大课题。指出,“数字海底”和“海岸带”研究是当前海洋研究的切入点,是海洋经济、海洋政治、海洋科学问题的重中之重,与人类生存和发展密切相关。     

An evaluation of the Marine Living Resources Act and supporting legal instruments as a framework for implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries in South Africa

The Marine Living Resources Act (MLRA), which was enacted in 1998, is the primary legislation addressing South Africa's marine fisheries. In June 2012, another important instrument, the Policy for the Small Scale Fisheries Sector (SSFP) in South Africa, was adopted to rectify the exclusion of many small-scale fishers from access to resources, that had resulted from weaknesses in the MLRA. This paper assesses the MLRA, aspects of the SSFP and selected other subsidiary policies and regulations in relation to current best-practices, especially the extent to which they support an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). The study concludes that there are some serious gaps and shortcomings in the MLRA that should be addressed. These include, among others, the need to: (i) revise the MLRA so as to incorporate requirements for open and transparent management and governance; (ii) entrench the principles of co-management, emphasised in the SSFP, for all fisheries; and (iii) include a legal requirement for detailed management plans for all fisheries. Despite these shortcomings, there has been considerable progress in implementation of EAF, at least in the country's bigger fisheries. However, this should not be seen as a justification for avoiding or delaying a revision of the MLRA to bring it into line with modern best-practices as encompassed by EAF.     

海洋资源可持续发展与对策

我国海洋资源潜力巨大,如果能够加快海洋科学技术创新步伐,提高科学管理水平,海洋资源将成为21世纪我国重要的资源来源和战略后备基地。但是随着沿海地区的不合理开发利用活动和过度捕捞,其生态环境问题日益突出,海洋资源已受到严重破坏,因而必须对海洋资源的可持续发展予以高度重视。最后提出了实施海洋资源可持续发展的对策。     

大连市海洋生物资源开发对策探讨

21世纪是海洋经济大发展的时代,利用科学技术不断深化海洋生物资源开发将助推海洋经济快速持续健康发展。大连市海洋生物资源十分丰富,开发潜力巨大。在分析海洋生物资源开发现状及存在问题的基础上,提出了海洋生物资源开发的思路、原则、重点及相关对策建议。     

英国海洋资源开发利用综述

英国在海洋资源开发利用上本着可持续发展的原则,在注重适当、适度进行海洋资源开发利用的同时,通过制定相应的政策、法规来加强对海洋环境的保护.文章简要介绍了其在海洋资源开发利用、管理以及环境保护方面所做的工作,希望对我国海洋资源开发与管理起到借鉴作用.