A preliminary discussion on the opportunities and challenges of linking climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction

Managing the risks of extreme events such as natural disasters to advance climate change adaptation (CCA) has been a global focus. However, a critical challenge in supporting CCA is to improve its linkage with disaster risk reduction (DRR). Based on discussions on similarities and differences between CCA and DRR concerning their spatial–temporal scales, main focuses, preferred research approaches and methodologies, etc., this paper tentatively put forward an analytical framework of “6W” for linking DRR with CCA. This framework presented preliminary answers to a series of fundamental questions, such as “What is adaptation with respect to disaster risk?” “Why adaptation is needed?” “Who adapt to what?” “How to adapt?” “What are the possible principles to assess the adaptation effect?” To bridge the research gaps between CCA and DRR, it is imperative to associate the adaptation actions with both near-term disaster risk and long-term climate change and formulate adaptation strategies at various spatial–temporal scales by embracing uncertainty in a changing climate.     

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.     

我国北方干旱化研究——面向国家需求的全球变化科学问题

近几十年来 ,全球环境变化已经成为国际社会关注的焦点。中国也面临一系列与此相关的重大生存环境问题。其中最为突出的是北方地区的干旱化。其主要表现为 :降水量减少 ,雪线高度抬升 ,湖泊萎缩 ,河网干枯 (特别如黄河断流 ) ,土地荒漠化 ,生态系统退化等等。这些问题已经成为国民经济发展的严重障碍。北方干旱化是怎样形成的 ?其未来发展趋势如何 ?将对中国的生存环境和社会经济可持续发展产生什么影响 ,应采取什么对策 ?政府和公众迫切要求回答这些与社会发展和人民生活密切相关的重大问题。文中分析了北方干旱化问题的性质 ,提出了面对国家需求应解决的关键科学问题和主要研究内容 ,简要介绍了在国家重点基础研究规划项目的支持下 ,近年来的主要研究进展 ,其中包括北方地区不同时间尺度干湿变化的规律和干旱化的证据 ,全球增暖和人类活动 (主要是水土资源的利用 )对干旱化的影响 ,主要生态系统对干旱化的响应和适应以及组织有序人类活动 ,改善生态环境 ,缓解干旱化影响的虚拟试验的结果等。     

加强我国土地利用/覆盖变化及其对生态环境安全影响的研究——-从荷兰“全球变化开放科学会议”看人地系统动力学研究的发展趋势

综述了在荷兰阿姆斯特丹召开的"全球变化开放科学会议"的主要学术成果,从中分析了在全球变化研究的各个领域,人类活动在全球变化中所起作用的重要方面。在此基础上,阐述了我国如何加强在全球变化和可持续发展研究中,开展土地利用/覆盖变化及其对生态环境安全影响研究的重要方向。以此研究揭示土地利用变化的驱动力,土地覆盖变化的生态效应,土地利用/覆盖格局对生态环境安全的影响机理。着眼我国生态系统对全球变化的可能响应,重构了我国生态环境安全条件下的土地利用/覆盖的空间宏观格局。     

Fluid inclusion and carbon isotope study from bamble granulites (South Norway)

The carbon isotopic composition of CO₂ from fluid inclusions in granulite facies rocks has been determined. The “primary” carbonic fluid — most probably being of Upper Mantle origin — appears to have δ ¹³C-values around ?15%. or even lighter up to ?20%. During the late stages of retromorphosis an enrichment in the heavy carbon isotope seems to occur resulting in δ-values between ?5 and ?7%. which, on the basis of ¹³C/¹²C ratios of carbonatites, kimberlites and diamonds have been taken up till now as representative for juvenile carbon. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of land use/cover change in fragile karst areas of southwest China since the early 1970s: a case study on the Maotiaohe watershed

Land use/cover change and its driving forces has been one of the most important fields in global environmental change research since the 1990s. Karst areas are distributed extensively on the Earth’s surface and are usually characterized by a fragile eco-environment. In southwest China, karst landforms are fully developed and their eco-environment is highly fragile. Over the past decades, irrational land use practice has caused a series of alarming eco-environmental issues including forest clearing, soil erosion, and karst rocky desertification. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study land use/cover change in this area and its driving forces in order to re-build the damaged eco-environment and achieve sustainable land use. In this paper, the authors conduct a case study on land use/cover change and its natural and human driving forces since the early 1970s in southwest China’s Maotiaohe watershed. The results indicate that the land use/cover pattern in the study area has undergone a very complex change, which is a result of combined action of both natural and anthropological factors. In the 1970s and 1980s, climate change and fast population increase played dominating roles in the change of arable land, shrub land, grassland, and rocky desertification land. Since the early 1990s, economic development has gradually taken the place of population change to become the overwhelming human factor to go along with climate change in driving the land use/cover change, particularly the change in arable land, construction land, and rocky desertification land.     

Land cover change over the last three centuries due to human activities: The availability of new global data sets

Land use and land cover change is an important driver of global change (Turner et al., 1993). It is recognized that land use change has important consequences for global and regional climates, the global biogeochemical cycles such as carbon, nitrogen, and water, biodiversity, etc. Nevertheless, there have been relatively few comprehensive studies of global, long-term historical changes in land cover due to land use. In this paper, we review the development of global scale data sets of land use and land cover change. Furthermore, we assess the differences between two recently developed global data sets of historical land cover change due to land use. Based on historical statistical inventories (e.g. census data, tax records, land surveys, historical geography estimates, etc) and applying different spatial analysis techniques, changes in agricultural land cover (croplands, pastures) were reconstructed for the last 300 years. The two data sets indicate that cropland areas expanded from 3–4 million km² in 1700 to 15–18 million km² in 1990 (mostly at the expense of forests), while grazing land area expanded from 5 million km² in 1700 to 31 million km² in 1990 (mostly at the expense of natural grasslands). The data sets disagree most over Latin America and Oceania, and agree best over North America. Major differences in the two data sets can be explained by the use of a fractional versus Boolean approach, different modelling assumptions, and inventory data sets.     

国际土地利用-土地覆盖变化的环境影响研究

土地利用－土地覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要方面之一。土地利用－土地覆盖变化对大氧化学性质及过程、气候、水文、土壤沉积物、生物多样性、生产力等都产生重要的影响。着重综述了轩际全球变化研究领域中重要的研究焦点之一－土地利用和土地覆盖变化的环境影响研究取得的进展以及未来的发展方向。     

Correlation analysis of NDVI dynamics and hydro-meteorological variables in growth period for four land use types of a water scarce area

As the characterization of primary productivity of wetland ecosystem, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) plays an important role in local ecosystem conservation for environmental management. In this paper, the correlations of NDVI and hydro-meteorological variables were studied in a water scarce area with emphasis on different land use types, namely water, wetland, residential land and farmland, during the growing seasons of 1999 and 2000. The significant NDVI changes were detected between spring and summer for all land use types. The correlation analysis revealed that the NDVI-temperature correlation (P?P?P?farmland > R_wetland > R_{residential land} > R_water for NDVI and precipitation correlations (P?water > R_wetland > R_residential land > R_farmland for NDVI and temperature correlations (P?相似文献   

Dynamics of land use/cover changes and the analysis of landscape fragmentation in Dhaka Metropolitan, Bangladesh

Rapid urban expansion due to large scale land use/cover change, particularly in developing countries becomes a matter of concern since urbanization drives environmental change at multiple scales. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has been experienced break-neck urban growth in the last few decades that resulted many adverse impacts on the environment. This paper was an attempt to document spatio-temporal pattern of land use/cover changes, and to quantify the landscape structures in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh. Using multi-temporal remotely sensed data with GIS, dynamics of land use/cover changes was evaluated and a transition matrix was computed to understand the rate and pattern of land use/cover change. Derived land use statistics subsequently integrated with landscape metrics to determine the impact of land use change on landscape fragmentation. Significant changes in land use/cover were noticed in Dhaka over the study period, 1975–2005. Rapid urbanization was manifested by a large reduction of agricultural land since urban built-up area increased from 5,500?ha in 1975 to 20,549?ha in 2005. At the same time, cultivated land decreased from 12,040 to 6,236?ha in the same period. Likewise, wetland and vegetation cover reduced to about 6,027 and 2,812?ha, respectively. Consequently, sharp changes in landscape pattern and composition were observed. The landscape became highly fragmented as a result of rapid increase in the built-up areas. The analysis revealed that mean patch size decreased while the number of patches increased. Landscape diversity declined, urban dominance amplified, and the overall landscape mosaics became more continuous, homogenous and clumped. In order to devise sustainable land use planning and to determine future landscape changes for sound resource management strategies, the present study is expected to have significant implications in rapidly urbanizing cities of the world in delivering baseline information about long term land use change and its impact on landscape structure.     

Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change

Climate change and land use/land cover change have resulted in water shortage, degraded ecosystem services, and increased disaster risks across the world. Developing strategies and measures for achieving regional and global sustainability in the face of these environmental problems is a key topic of current climate change research. This paper provides an overview of the 973 project, entitled “Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change”, including its background, relative progresses, key scientific questions, major research elements, methodology, and expected outcomes. The proposed research is based on sustainability science, guided by the idea of Orderly Human Activities (OHA), and implemented through an integrated methodology of combining field observations, simulation experiments, and scenario analysis. The main objectives of the project are: to quantify the relationship between human activities and climate change, to assess the impacts of human activities on ecosystem services and human well being in the face of climate change, and to develop an integrated model of climate change, OHA, and regional sustainable development. The ultimate goal is to provide a landscape/regional-scale strategy for sustainable development in the face of climate change. The project is expected to help advance the science and application of landscape sustainability science and land system design, particularly in terms of linking climate change, ecosystem services, and human well-being in the dry land region of China.     

On the origin of the carat as the unit of weight for gemstones

The carat is the unit of weight for diamonds and other gemstones. It corresponds to the average weight of the seeds of a leguminous tree. What kind of tree is this? We have studied the samples from Ethiopia. Egypt, Cyprus and the United States. The tree is neither “Kuara” nor “Locust” (Robina pseudoacacia Linn.), but rather Carob (Ceratonia Siliqua). In Ethiopia, as called by local inhabitants, “Kuara” is a species of Erythrina—E. brucei rather thanE. abyssinica. As might be expected, using the seeds as a means of weighing an extremely valuable commodity is not very scientific. Before 1907, at various times and in various countries, there were at least twenty-three standards for the carat ranging from 187.00 mg to 215.990 mg. The metric carat equal to 200 mg was proposed in Paris in 1907. It was adopted in the United States on July 1, 1913 and now is the world-accepted standard. But in reality, the standard of the carat is still confused with respect to its usage throughout the world. This is why the author reiterates that the standard of the carat should be integrated with the metric system.     

Enthalpies of ordering in the plagioclase feldspar solid solution

Enthalpies of solution in lead borate at ~700°C have been measured for 36 natural and heat treated plagioclase feldspars. The samples made up two series, as characterised by TEM and XRD. A “low” series contained the natural ordered material and a “high” series the same samples annealed at high temperatures to induce cation disorder. Enthalpy of solution differences between the two series give the enthalpy changes associated with the disordering reactions: low albite → high albite: ~3 kcal/mole “e” structure → Cī high albite structure: ~ 1.4-2.8 kcal/mole Il? structure →- Cl? high albite structure: ~0.7-1.9 kcal/mole Il? structure equilibrated at low temperature → Il? structure equilibrated at high temperature: ~ 1.8?0.8 kcal/mole.ΔH_soln data for the high series overlap with the data of Newtonet al. (1980) for synthetic high structural state plagioclases except in the composition range ~An₉₀–An₁₀₀. They are consistent with an interpretation of the solid solution as being composed, at high temperatures, of two ideal (zero heat of mixing) segments, one with Cl? symmetry and one with Il symmetry, and having a non-first order (continuous) order/disorder transformation between them. The low series can also be separated into two distinct trends, for Il? and “e” structures.Values of the enthalpy change due to disordering (ΔH_ord) also show a number of systematic trends. Firstly, the values for e → Cl? are larger than for Il? → Cl? in the composition range where both e and Il? structures are observed (~An₆₅-An₇₂). Secondly, the enthalpy change on disordering the most ordered e structures at An-rich compositions is larger than for Ab-rich e structures. The apparent change in ΔH_ord, which occurs at ~An₅₀, may be important for the origin of the Bøggild miscibility gap. Thirdly, the large enthalpy change of the e structure, due to ordering, may be sufficient to stabilise it relative even to a mixture of low albite plus anorthite. Values for the enthalpy change on disordering Il? anorthites and bytownites to a Cl? structure have been estimated by assuming that the Cl? solid solution is ideal (non-enthalpic) and then extrapolating a straight line through the data for Ab-rich compositions to pure anorthite.     

Article by G.S. Kurochkin and A.M. Fedorov, “Massifs of mineralized serpentines and pyroxenites in Mansk Belogor'ye,East Sayans”

The authors by their own statement do not intend to make a general criticism of the work but which only to point out these specific errors: 1) There is no justification in assigning all the massifs to the junction zone of East and West Sayans. It is incomprehensible to include such dissimilar massifs as the gabbros of Kazyr and the granitic Kryzhin range, both because of age and form; 2) There are no chromite deposits in the West Sayans; 3) The use of an effusive-schist formation in the Upper Proterozoic is incorrect; it should read series; 4) What do Ordovician faults have to do with the Lysansk massifs? 5) There are serious errors and omissions in the petrography of the Lysansk complex, on which the authors elaborate; 6) The TiO₂ deposits in gabbros were discovered not in 1956, as claimed, but in 1954 by two other geologists; 7) The sequence of the emergence of secondary minerals from a magmatic melt “can only be visualized;” 8) They object to “superimposing” an autometamorphic phase on the mineralization; 9) They object to the concepts of the origin of Lysansk intrusions, as being “in the dogmatic form of an article of faith.” — M.A. Klugman     

Markets,religion, regulation: Kosher,halal and Hindu vegetarianism in global perspective

Most recent scholarship on moral economies or religious markets argues for the compatibility of economies/markets and religious practices in particular national or regional contexts. However, over the last couple of decades or so religious markets have entered a new phase characterized by new forms of regulation, certification and standardization on a global scale. Building on research on global kosher (a Hebrew term meaning “fit” or “proper”), halal (an Arabic word that literally means “permissible” or “lawful”) and Hindu vegetarianism this paper argues that these economies or markets to a large extent are conditioned by and themselves condition forms of transnational governmentality, that is, new and often overlapping practices of government and grassroots politics. I explore religious economies and markets at three interrelated levels of the social scale: state and non-state regulation, the marketplace and consumers. Epistemologically, comparison is used as a powerful conceptual mechanism that fixes attention on kosher, halal and Hindu vegetarian similarities and differences.     

Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

Comment: A study of “probabilistic” and “deterministic” geostatistics

Stochastic process theory involves integrals of measurable functions over probability measure spaces. One of these is the ensemble space, Ω, whose members are sample functions on Euclidean spaceR ^k and the other isR ^k itself. What geostatisticians call the “theory of regionalized variables” is said to based on stochastic theory. A recent paper inMathematical Geology proclaims a distinction between “probabilistic” and “deterministic” geostatistics. The former is said to rely on “ensemble integrals” over Ω and the latter on “spatial integrals” overR ^k. This study shows that the proposed distinction rests on an arbitrary choice between two estimators for the covariance of a stochastic process; neither is an ensemble integral, both are spatial integrals, and both are Kolmogorov inconsistent. The “deterministic” estimator is identical with that of classical bivariate least-squares regression in which “spatial structure” is of no consequence. This study shows that both stochastic models are suboptimal approximations to the unique nonstationary classical statistical multivariate regression model generated by each sample pattern. The stochastic process model and its “spatial continuity measures,” thus, appear as questionable mathematical embellishments on suboptimal estimates, correspondence with geomorphic reality is tenuous, and estimates are biased and distorted. Various related misconceptions in the paper are also discussed.     

Non-LTE analysis of the formation of KI lines in the spectra of A-K stars

The non-LTE formation of KI lines in the spectra of A-K stars is analyzed. The computations are based on a 36-level model of the neutral potassium atom for blanketed LTE Kurucz model atmospheres with T _eff=4000–10000 K, logg=0.0–4.5, and [M/H]=(0.0)–(?2.0). The KI atoms in the atmospheres of these stars are in states of moderate and strong “over-recombination.” A number of atomic parameters are refined using the profiles and equivalent widths of five lines in the solar spectrum. The classical van der Waals damping constants must be increased by factors of 2–60 to fit the observed profiles. The non-LTE solar potassium abundance—logε (K)=5.14—corresponds to the meteoritic abundance. Non-LTE corrections to the potassium abundance are important and equal to ?0.4...?0.7 dex for the λ7699 Å line and ?0.15...?0.3 dex for the λλ12522, 12432, and 11769 Å lines.     

Wetland cover change detection using multi-temporal remotely sensed data

Lake Urmia, located in northwest Iran, contains a number of wetlands significantly affecting the environmental, social, and economic conditions of the region. The ecological condition of Lake Urmia has degraded during the past decade, due to climate change, human activities, and unsustainable management. The poor condition of the lake has also affected the surrounding wetlands. This study analyzes the land cover change of one of the wetlands in the southern part of Lake Urmia, known as Ghara-Gheshlagh wetland, in the period 1989–2015 using post-classification change detection and machine learning image classification. For this analysis, three Landsat images, acquired in 1989 (TM), 2001 (TM), and 2015 (Landsat-8), were used for the classification and change detection. Support vector machine learning algorithm, a supervised learning method, is employed, and images are classified into four main land cover classes namely “water,” ”barren,” “salty land,” and “agriculture and grassland.” Change detection was carried out for pairs of years 1989 to 2001 and 2001 until 2015. The results of this classification show that there is a sharp increase in the area of salt-saturated land as well as a decrease in the area of water resources. Overall classification accuracy obtained were high for the individual years: 1989 (91.48%), 2001 (90.63%), and 2015 (88.6%). Also, the Kappa coefficients for individual maps were high: 1989 (0.89), 2001 (0.8742), and 2015 (0.84). After that, the land cover change map of the study area is obtained between 1989 to 2001 and then 2001 to 2015. The results of this analysis suggest that more efforts should be taken to effectively manage water resources in the region and point to potential locations for focused management actions within the wetland area.     

Environmental Determinants of Emergent Macrophyte Vegetation in Pacific Northwest Estuarine Tidal Wetlands

We investigated whether within wetland environmental conditions or surrounding land cover measured at multiple scales were more influential in structuring regional vegetation patterns in estuarine tidal wetlands in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Surrounding land cover was characterized at the 100, 250, and 1,000 m, and watershed buffer scales. Vegetation communities were characterized by high species richness, lack of monotypic zonation, and paucity of invasive species. The number of species per site ranged between 4 and 20 (mean?±?standard deviation?=?10.2?±?3.1). Sites supported a high richness (mean richness of native species 8.7?±?2.8) and abundance of native macrophytes (mean relative abundance 85 %?±?19 %). Vegetation assemblages were dominated by a mix of grasses, sedges, and herbs with Sarcocornia pacifica and Distichlis spicata being common at sites in the oceanic zone of the estuary and Carex lyngbyei and Agrostis stolonifera being common at the fresher sites throughout the study area. The vegetation community was most strongly correlated with salinity and land cover within close proximity to the study site and less so with land cover variables at the watershed scale. Total species richness and richness of native species were negatively correlated with the amount of wetland in the buffer at all scales, while abundance of invasive species was significantly correlated to within wetland factors, including salinity and dissolved phosphorus concentrations. Landscape factors related to anthropogenic disturbances were only important at the 100-m buffer scale, with anthropogenic disturbances further from the wetland not being influential in shaping the vegetation assemblage. Our research suggests that the traditional paradigms of tidal wetland vegetation structure and environmental determinants developed in east coast US tidal wetlands might not hold true for Pacific Northwest wetlands due to their unique chemical and physical factors, necessitating further detailed study of these systems.