The hydrological signal of the Perito Moreno Glacier damming of Lake Argentino (southern Andean Patagonia): the connection to climate anomalies

The periodic damming of Lake Argentino by the Perito Moreno Glacier (50°30′S, 73° 00′W) in Argentina's southern Patagonian Andes has been recorded seventeen times since the beginning of this century. Such events are significant factors controlling discharge anomalies (seasonal component removed) of the Santa Cruz River, the sole outlet of Lake Argentino. Power spectrum analysis of the deseasonalized discharge revealed significant period peaks in the 33- to 36-month range and in the 42- to 58-month range. The first frequency is probably determined by the anomalous position of the subtropical anticyclones in the Pacific (with 2–5 years recurrence intervals), whereas the remaining frequencies are coincidental with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) frequency spectrum. Significant squared coherency (>0.78) between the Santa Cruz River discharge anomalies and the MEI suggests that there is a significant teleconnection between ENSO occurrences in the Pacific and the Perito Moreno Glacier dynamics. El Niño events, for example, appear to have fostered the advancement of the glacier's snout and influenced the recorded damming–rupture sequence.     

20 years of mass balances on the Piloto glacier, Las Cuevas river basin, Mendoza, Argentina

Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997–2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968–1969, 1969–1970 and 1996–1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.     

Interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea and its response to ENSO

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.     

Coral Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca records in Con Dao Island off the Mekong Delta: Assessment of their potential for monitoring ENSO and East Asian monsoon

The climate of the South China Sea (SCS) is dominated by the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and can be related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) owing to the interaction between ENSO and the EAM. An annually-banded coral (Porites sp.) collected from Con Dao Island in the southern SCS was measured for Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios at near-monthly resolution through the annual bands of AD 1948–1999. This island is only ~ 90 km from the Mekong Delta coast and thus significantly influenced by riverine discharge, suggesting relatively severe environmental stress on corals. The Sr/Ca time series shows a clear annual cyclicity chiefly modulated by sea-surface temperature (SST), whereas the Mg/Ca time series exhibits an indistinct annual cyclicity, indicating that the previously-proposed coral Mg/Ca thermometry is greatly disturbed. An instrumental SST record in Con Dao Island (since 1980) has been compared with the Sr/Ca time series to calibrate a Sr/Ca thermometer. The Sr/Ca vs. SST comparison shows that the Sr/Ca thermometer is sometimes disturbed by some factor and that almost all of the disturbances occur around the annual-maximum SST in the warm/wet season. The Sr/Ca data around the annual-minimum SST in the cool/dry season is almost free from the disturbance and thus useful as a SST proxy. The disturbances of the Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca thermometers may be ascribed to the Mekong River discharge and its accompanying phenomena (i.e., large freshwater input, suspended-sediment loads, intense phytoplankton blooms, etc.), which are likely to disturb coral physiological processes. Applying the Sr/Ca thermometer to the whole Sr/Ca time series provides a SST reconstruction from 1948 through 1999. Reconstructed annual-minimum SSTs show a clear quasi-biennial oscillation significantly correlated with ENSO, indicating that the annual-minimum SST in the southern SCS tends to be higher (lower) in El Niño (La Niña) phases. This is compatible with previous observations that the East Asian winter monsoon is weakened (strengthened) in El Niño (La Niña) phases. The reconstructed SST record suggests a warming of 1.0 °C for the latter half of the 20th century. The Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca time series exhibit similar decadal-to-bidecadal variations, which do not seem to be primarily due to SST variability but rather due to some other factor possibly related to disturbance or fluctuation of coral physiological processes. Although both of our Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca data are affected, to a greater or lesser extent, by some non-temperature factor, a part of the Sr/Ca data provides a useful SST proxy and suggests that coral-based SST reconstruction in the southern SCS may be an effective means for monitoring the EAM and ENSO.     

Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District

Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a^− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a^− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a^− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a^− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a^− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.     

Climate warming and growth of high-elevation inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau

The growth of two high-elevation inland lakes (at 4600 m) was analyzed using satellite imagery (2000–2005) and data were collected over the last decade (1997–2006) at a plateau meteorological station (at 4820 m) and stream gauging data from a station (at 4250 m) in central Tibet. We examined the lake water balance responses to meteorological and hydrological variables. The results show that the lake areas greatly expanded by a maximum of 27.1% (or 43.7 km²) between 1998 and 2005. This expansion appears to be associated with an increase in annual precipitation of 51.0 mm (12.6%), mean annual and winter mean temperature increases of 0.41 °C and 0.71 °C, and an annual runoff increase of 20% during the last decade. The changes point to an abrupt increase in the annual precipitation, mean temperature and runoff occurring in 1996, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and a decrease in the annual pan evaporation that happened in 1996. The timing of lake growth corresponds closely with abrupt increases in the annual precipitation and runoff and with the decrease in the annual evaporation since the mid-1990s. This study indicates a strong positive water balance in these permafrost highland lakes, and provides further evidence of lake growth as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change.     

Climatic pacing of Mediterranean fire histories from lake sedimentary microcharcoal

The microcharcoal content (particles < 180 µm) of overlapping sedimentary sequences from two crater lake basins in central Turkey are used to reconstruct the regional fire history of the East Mediterranean oak–grass parkland zone from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present-day. These results are correlated with stable isotope and pollen data from the same cores in order to assess the changing role of climate, vegetation and human activity in landscape burning. This indicates that climatically-induced variation in biomass availability was the main factor controlling the timing of regional fire activity during the Last Glacial–Interglacial climatic transition, and again during Mid-Holocene times, with fire frequency and magnitude increasing during wetter climatic phases. Spectral analysis of the Holocene part of the record from Eski Acıgöl indicates significant cyclicity with a periodicity of ~ 1500 years that may be linked with large-scale climate forcing. Although proto-agricultural societies were established in this region as early as 10,000 years ago, it is only during the last two to three millennia that the pacing of wildfire cycles appears to have become decoupled from climate and linked instead to human-induced changes in land cover and fuel load availability.     

Morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand, 1990–2007

This paper presents data concerning recent (1990–2007) surface morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand. We use remote-sensing data to derive rates of lake growth, glacier velocities and rates of glacier surface lowering. Between 1990 and 2007, the glacier terminus receded ~ 3.5 km and a large ice-contact proglacial lake developed behind the outwash head. By 2007 the lake area was ~ 6 km² and had replaced the majority of the lowermost 4 km of the glacier tongue. There is evidence that lake growth is proceeding at increasing rates — the lake area doubled between 2000 and 2007 alone. Measured horizontal glacier velocities decline from 150 m a^− 1 in the upper glacier catchment to almost zero at the glacier terminus and there is a consequent down-glacier increase in surface debris cover. Surface debris mapping shows that a large catastrophic rockfall onto the glacier surface in 1991 is still evident as a series of arcuate debris ridges below the Hochstetter icefall. Calculated glacier surface lowering is most clearly pronounced around the terminal area of the glacier tongue, with down-wasting rates of 4.2 ± 1.4 m a^− 1 in areas adjacent to the lateral moraine ridges outside of the current lake extent. Surface lowering rates of approximately 1.9 ± 1.4 m a^− 1 are common in the upper areas of the glacier. Calculations of future lake expansion are dependent on accurate bathymetric and bed topography surveys, but published data indicate that a further 8–10 km of the glacier is susceptible to calving and further lake development in the future.     

Continental-scale comparisons of terrestrial carbon sinks estimated from satellite data and ecosystem modeling 1982–1998

A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 1982 to 1998. The NASA–CASA model was driven by vegetation properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the terrestrial biosphere, predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO₂ has varied widely between an annual source of −0.9 Pg C per year and a sink of +2.1 Pg C per year. The southern hemisphere tropical zones (SHT, between 0° and 30°S) have a major influence over the predicted global trends in interannual variability of NEP. In contrast, the terrestrial NEP sink for atmospheric CO₂ on the North American (NA) continent has been fairly consistent between +0.2 and +0.3 Pg C per year, except during relatively cool annual periods when continental NEP fluxes are predicted to total to nearly zero. The predicted NEP sink for atmospheric CO₂ over Eurasia (EA) increased notably in the late 1980s and has been fairly consistent between +0.3 and +0.55 Pg C per year since 1988. High correlations can be detected between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicted NEP fluxes on the EA continent and for the SHT latitude zones, whereas NEP fluxes for the North American continent as a whole do not correlate strongly with ENSO events over the same time series since 1982. These observations support the hypothesis that regional climate warming has had notable but relatively small-scale impacts on high latitude ecosystem (tundra and boreal) sinks for atmospheric CO₂.     

Subglacial lakes and jökulhlaups in Iceland

Active volcanoes and hydrothermal systems underlie ice caps in Iceland. Glacier–volcano interactions produce meltwater that either drains toward the glacier margin or accumulates in subglacial lakes. Accumulated meltwater drains periodically in jökulhlaups from the subglacial lakes and occasionally during volcanic eruptions. The release of meltwater from glacial lakes can take place in two different mechanisms. Drainage can begin at pressures lower than the ice overburden in conduits that expand slowly due to melting of the ice walls by frictional and sensible heat in the water. Alternatively, the lake level rises until the ice dam is lifted and water pressure in excess of the ice overburden opens the waterways; the glacier is lifted along the flowpath to make space for the water. In this case, discharge rises faster than can be accommodated by melting of the conduits. Normally jökulhlaups do not lead to glacier surges but eruptions in ice-capped stratovolcanoes have caused rapid and extensive glacier sliding. Jökulhlaups from subglacial lakes may transport on the order of 10⁷ tons of sediment per event but during violent volcanic eruptions, the sediment load has been 10⁸ tons.     

Glacier mass balance variability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru and its relationship with climate and the large-scale circulation

A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.     

Glacier mass balance of tropical Zongo glacier, Bolivia, comparing hydrological and glaciological methods

A glaciological program has been undertaken since 1991 on Zongo glacier in Bolivia (6000–4850 m asl, 2.4 km², 16°S). This program involves mass balance measurements, hydrological studies and energy balance investigations. On outer-tropical glaciers, melting and snow accumulation are both maximum in the wet season (austral summer), whereas the dry season (winter) is a period of low ablation. Errors on each term of the glaciological (stakes, snow-pits and integration method of the measurements) and hydrological (precipitation, discharge and runoff coefficient of free ice areas) methods are investigated to estimate the overall accuracy of the mass balance measurements. The hydrological budget is less than the glaciological one (mean difference: 60 cm w.e. per year), but both methods reproduce similar inter-annual variations. Errors in assessment of evaporation or water storage inside the glacier cannot explain the discrepancy. Errors using the glaciological method are large (around ± 40 cm w.e. per year), but no bias can explain the departure from the hydrological balance. Errors on discharge measurements are small and the uncertainty on the runoff coefficient has a minor effect on the mass balance. We concluded that hydrological budgets are too low due to the catch deficiency of rain gauges and absence of precipitation measurements at high altitudes, emphasizing the difficulty to assess snowfall distribution in high mountainous basins.     

Ice elevation and areal changes of glaciers from the Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile

High thinning rates (up to − 4.0 ± 0.97 m a^− 1) have been measured at Campo de Hielo Patagónico Norte (CHN) or Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile between 1975 and 2001. Results have been obtained by comparing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from regular cartography compiled by Instituto Geográfico Militar of Chile (IGM) based upon 1974/1975 aerial photographs and a DEM generated from Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite images acquired in September 2001. A complete cloud-free Landsat ETM+ satellite image mosaic acquired in March 2001 was used to update the available glacier inventory of the CHN, including all glaciers larger than 0.5 km² (48 new glaciers). A new delineation of ice divides was also performed over the accumulation areas of glaciers sharing the high plateau where the existing regular cartography exhibits poor coverage of topographic information. This updated glacier inventory produced a total ice area for 2001 of 3953 km², which represents a decrease of 3.4 ± 1.5% (140 ± 61 km² of ice) with respect to the total ice area of the CHN in 1979 calculated from a Landsat MSS satellite image. Almost 62% of the total area change between 1979 and 2001 took place in glaciers located at the western margin of the CHN, where the maximum area loss was experienced by Glaciar San Quintín with 33 km². At the southern margin, Glaciar Steffen underwent the largest ice-area loss (12 km² or 2.6% of the 1979 area), whilst at the eastern margin the greatest area loss took place in Glaciares Nef (7.9 km², 5.7% of the 1979 area) and Colonia (9.1 km², 2.7% of the 1979 area). At the northern margin of the CHN the lower debris-covered ablation area of Glaciar Grosse collapsed into a new freshwater lake formed during the late 1990s. The areal changes measured at the CHN are much larger than previously estimated due to the inclusion of changes experienced in the accumulation areas. The CHN as a whole is contributing melt water to global sea level rise at rates  25% higher than previous estimates.     

Recent evolution and mass balance of Cordón Martial glaciers, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental

Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 ¹⁴C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.     

Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers

Retreat and advance of glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand have occurred over two distinct 20-yr climate periods (1954–1974) and (1974–1994). Changes in tropical and southern Andean glaciers are compared over these same periods. Behaviour of glaciers in the tropical Andes are out of phase with the Southern Alps glaciers, but some glaciers in Patagonia appear to be in phase. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies and sea surface temperature patterns are examined for these periods. Glacier response on inter-decadal timescales is linked with distinctive shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns around the Southern Hemisphere. Retreat (advance) of glaciers in the Southern Alps and southern Andean glacier and advance (retreat) of glaciers in the tropical Andes are all associated with weaker (stronger) westerlies, blocking events in the South-east Pacific, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over Southern Africa and higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These glacier changes are also linked with the negative (positive) phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño) events, and warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region and cool (warm) sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern region of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.     

Climatic implications of correlated Upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits on the Cinca and Gállego Rivers (NE Spain) based on OSL dating and soil stratigraphy

We correlate Upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits of the Cinca and Gállego River valleys (south central Pyrenees and Ebro basin, Spain) using geomorphic position, luminescence dates, and time-related trends in soil development. The ages obtained from glacial deposits indicate glacial periods at 85 ± 5 ka, 64 ± 11 ka, and 36 ± 3 ka (from glacial till) and 20 ± 3 ka (from loess). The fluvial drainage system, fed by glaciers in the headwaters, developed extensive terrace systems in the Cinca River valley at 178 ± 21 ka, 97 ± 16 ka, 61 ± 4 ka, 47 ± 4 ka, and 11 ± 1 ka, and in the Gállego River valley at 151 ± 11 ka, 68 ± 7 ka, and 45 ± 3 ka. The times of maximum geomorphic activity related to cold phases coincide with Late Pleistocene marine isotope stages and Heinrich events. The maximum extent of glaciers during the last glacial occurred at 64 ± 11 ka, and the terraces correlated with this glacial phase are the most extensive in both the Cinca (61 ± 4 ka) and Gállego (68 ± 7 ka) valleys, indicating a strong increase in fluvial discharge and availability of sediments related to the transition to deglaciation. The global Last Glacial Maximum is scarcely represented in the south central Pyrenees owing to dominantly dry conditions at that time. Precipitation must be controlled by the position of the Iberian Peninsula with respect to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation system. The glacial systems and the associated fluvial dynamic seem sensitive to 1) global climate changes controlled by insolation, 2) North Atlantic thermohaline circulation influenced by freshwater pulses into the North Atlantic, and 3) anomalies in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic controlling precipitation on the Iberian Peninsula. Our scenario of glacial and fluvial evolution during the Late Pleistocene in northern Spain could be extrapolated to other glaciated mountainous areas in southern Europe.     

Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons

The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.     

Energy balance in the ablation zone during the summer season at the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in the Southern Andes

The energy balance and ablation of Glaciar Lengua were investigated during the austral summer of 1999/2000. Glaciar Lengua is located in Patagonia, in the southernmost Andes of Chile (53°S), within an extremely maritime climate. The aim of this study was to gain insight into current energy fluxes at this location and to evaluate how the energy fluxes depend on meteorological variables. From February to April 2000 an automated weather station was operated on Glaciar Lengua. Ablation was measured repeatedly at stakes during the same period. The point energy balance was calculated using the bulk approach formulation. The effective roughness length was adjusted in order to calibrate the model to the measured ablation. It was revealed that sensible heat transfer is the major contribution to the energy balance adding 54% of the energy available for melt. Net radiation contributes only 35% to the overall energy balance. Minor contributors are the latent heat flux (7%) and the heat flux by precipitation (4%). The net radiation shows little variance from day to day. Cross-correlations of the daily mean values of the energy fluxes derived from the energy balance model and meteorological variables reveal that air temperature and wind speed are the key factors controlling the summer energy balance in the ablation area. Melt derived from a multiple regression model based on these two variables correlates with computed melt with a correlation coefficient of 0.92. From the measured ablation, a summer-time degree-day factor of 7.6 mm·°C^− 1 was derived for the ablation area.     

Quaternary uplift of northern England

Upland flats, attributable to erosion, have long been recognised in the landscape of the Lake District region of NW England, at altitudes of up to ~ 800 m O.D. Extrapolation using uplift rates derived from dated Pleistocene sites (karstic caves and other features) in the adjacent Pennine uplands suggests that if this succession of flats formed close to sea-level they date from the Middle Pliocene onwards, indicating a subsequent time-averaged uplift rate of almost 0.3 mm a^− 1. Numerical modelling indicates that erosion of surrounding areas at a typical rate of 0.2 mm a^− 1 since 3.1 Ma could have caused this uplift, as well as constraining the local effective viscosity of the lower crust as ~ 4 × 10¹⁸ Pa s and the typical local Moho temperature as ~ 650 °C. It is thus feasible that most of the topography of northern England has developed since the Middle Pliocene, as a consequence of coupling between erosion and the resulting induced flow in the lower continental crust. The much faster vertical crustal motions indicated in this part of northern England, compared with SE England, are thus mainly a consequence of much greater mobility of the lower crust in the north, due to its younger thermal age and the heating effect of radioactive Palaeozoic granites. Uplift of this magnitude, which has previously gone unrecognised, may have affected post-Pliocene global climate.     

Soil investigations, offshore mid Norway: A case study of glacial influence on geotechnical properties

Fine-grained glaciomarine and glacial deposits on the outer Mid Norwegian continental shelf show complex variations in shear strength and degree of consolidation. At the Smørbukk Sør field (approx. 65°N, 7°E) about 80 m of variably overconsolidated clayey till is found on top of normally- or possibly underconsolidated glaciomarine and marine sediments. A high gas content is found below 60 m, and the porewater in the rather soft sediments in the lower part of the borehole may have been partly trapped by gas hydrates when the overlying hard till was deposited. The variations in geotechnical properties of the 80 m thick till section are suggested to result mainly from compaction below grounded ice during the last glaciation, and we interpret the strength variations in the till to reflect shifts between freeze of sediment porewater onto the base of the ice causing highly overconsolidated intervals, and thermal equilibrium or melting at the ice sole resulting in intervals of softer till.A large ridge northwest of Smørbukk (Skjoldryggen) is probably partly formed by ice push during ice flow oscillations at the same time as the described till at Smørbukk was deposited. This ridge retarded the ice flow and hence the frictional heating at the end of surges, creating pulses of net freezing base ice and consolidation of the substratum. The described process has possibly affected a wide area up-ice of Skjoldryggen, and may be common in areas with a complex glacial history and a fine-grained substratum.