Large Earthquake Hazard of the San Jacinto Fault Zone,CA, from Long Record of Simulated Seismicity Assimilating the Available Instrumental and Paleoseismic Data

We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m ≥ 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m ≥ 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m ≥ 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m ≥ 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m ≥ 7 earthquake.     

Preliminary analysis of earthquake probability based on the synthetic seismic catalog

The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability. The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used. However, available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes. If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation, and the simulation results match the crustal deformation, seismicity, and other observations,then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study, we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog. The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes, and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied. The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes.     

Seismic hazard in southern Calabria (Italy) based on the analysis of a synthetic earthquake catalog

The application of a newly developed physics-based earthquake simulator to the active faults inferred by aeromagnetism in southern Calabria has produced a synthetic catalog lasting 100 ky including more than 18,000 earthquakes of magnitude ≥?4.0. This catalog exhibits temporal, spatial and magnitude features, which resemble those of the observed seismicity. As an example of the potential use of synthetic catalogs, a map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a given exceedance probability on the territory under investigation has been produced by means of a simple attenuation law applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog. This map was compared with the existing hazard map that is presently used in the national seismic building regulations. The comparison supports a strong similarity of our results with the values given in the present Italian seismic building code, despite the latter being based on a different methodology. The same similarity cannot be recognized for the comparison of our present study with the results obtained from a previous study based on our same methodology but with a different geological model.     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.     

A physics-based earthquake simulator and its application to seismic hazard assessment in Calabria (Southern Italy) region

The use of a newly developed earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100 kyr and containing more than 100,000 events of magnitudes ≥4.5. The model of the fault system upon which we applied the simulator code was obtained from the DISS 3.2.0 database, selecting all the faults that are recognized on the Calabria region, for a total of 22 fault segments. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behavior of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. The results of the physics-based simulator algorithm were compared with those obtained by an alternative method using a slip-rate balanced technique. Finally, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogs, an attenuation law has been applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of PGA on the territory under investigation.     

2013年甘肃岷县漳县M_S6.6地震余震序列时域衰减特征分析

本文基于补充遗漏地震事件后的地震目录和修正的大森公式,对2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震余震序列时间域衰减特征进行了分析.鉴于主震后短时间内目录遗漏的余震较多,首先利用岷县台连续地震记录波形的高频包络差,检测主震后3h内目录遗漏的地震.经检测在主震后3h内共发现目录遗漏的ML1.0以上地震139个,最大震级为ML3.6.主震后1000s内检测到遗漏地震69个,约为目录给出余震数量的6倍.而后使用补充遗漏地震的目录,基于修正的大森公式分别拟合余震频度和余震地震矩随时间的变化.结果显示拟合p值约为1.07,表明岷县漳县地震余震序列衰减速率与全球平均水平接近,而未补充遗漏地震的频度拟合会造成余震序列衰减速率的低估.利用高频包络差直接计算地震频度曲线,通过三种衰减模式对地震频度曲线拟合参数比较,未观察到岷县漳县地震主震后存在早期余震缺失现象.分析认为,加入遗漏地震可以提高余震频度拟合估计衰减速率结果的准确度和精度,若缺少遗漏地震检测结果,则使用地震矩拟合所得衰减速率结果准确度较优,但需充分考虑其精度上的误差.在分析余震序列衰减特征的实际研究工作中,需根据地震目录完整性选择适当的拟合方法.     

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system,central California

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes ofM _L =5.3 andM _L =5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average.The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquakeretardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979M _L =5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for the past 5 years. Retardations with durations of 21 and 19 months also occurred at Shore Road before the 1974 and 1984 earthquakes ofM _L =5.2 andM _L =6.2, respectively.Although creep retardation remains poorly understood, several possible explanations have been discussed previously. (1) Certain onsets of apparent creep retardation may be explained as abrupt terminations of afterslip generated from previous moderate-mainshock sequences. (2) Retardations may be related to significant decreases in the rate of seismic and/or aseismic slip occurring within or beneath the underlying seismogenic zone. Such decreases may be caused by changes in local conditions related to growth of asperities, strain hardening, or dilatancy, or perhaps by passage of stress-waves or other fluctuations in driving stresses. (3) Finally, creep rates may be lowered (or increased) by stresses imposed on the fault by seismic or aseismic slip on neighboring faults. In addition to causing creep-rate increases or retardations, such fault interactions occasionally may trigger earthquakes.Regardless of the actual mechanisms involved and the current lack of understanding of creep retardation, it appears that shallow fault creep is sensitive to local and regional effects that promote or accompany intermediate-term preparation stages leading to moderate earthquakes. A strategy for more complete monitoring of fault creep, wherever it is known to occur, therefore should be assigned a higher priority in our continuing efforts to test various hypotheses concerning the mechanical relations between seismic and aseismic slip.     

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13 671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) that spans January 1, 2005 to July 31, 2020. We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data, resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet. The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit. We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD, which shows a more defined structure at depth. We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament, as defined by the magnetic anomaly, supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ. We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir, which is located about 5 ?km from the epicenter of the M_W 4.4 December 12, 2018 Decatur, Tennessee earthquake, and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region. We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes. Our results show limited evidence for hydrologically-driven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ, which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.     

Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation

—We analyze the seismic moment-frequency relation in various depth ranges and for different seismic regions, using Flinn-Engdahl's regionalization of global seismicity. Three earthquake lists of centroid-moment tensor data have been used the Harvard catalog, the USGS catalog, and the Huang et al. (1997) catalog of deep earthquakes. The results confirm the universality of the β-values and the maximum moment for shallow earthquakes in continental regions, as well as at and near continental boundaries. Moreover, we show that although fluctuations in earthquake size distribution increase with depth, the β-values for earthquakes in the depth range of 0–500 km exhibit no statistically significant regional variations. The regional variations are significant only for deep events near the 660 km boundary. For declustered shallow earthquake catalogs and deeper events, we show that the worldwide β-values have the same value of 0.60 ± 0.02. This finding suggests that the β-value is a universal constant. We investigate the statistical correlations between the numbers of seismic events in different depth ranges and the correlation of the tectonic deformation rate and seismic activity (the number of earthquakes above a certain threshold level per year). The high level of these correlations suggests that seismic activity indicates tectonic deformation rate in subduction zones. Combined with the universality of the β-value, this finding implies little if any variation in maximum earthquake seismic moment among various subduction zones. If we assume that earthquakes of maximum size are similar in different depth ranges and the seismic efficiency coefficient, χ, is close to 100% for shallow seismicity, then we can estimate χ for deeper earthquakes for intermediate earthquakes χ≈ 5%, and χ≈ 1% for deep events. These results may lead to new theoretical understanding of the earthquake process and better estimates of seismic hazard.     

2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震序列活动特征分析

中强地震序列的主震发生后,短时间内受台站距震中较远、尾波干扰和波形重叠等因素的影响,往往会遗漏大量的地震,而地震目录的完整性会直接影响到震后趋势判定和余震序列特征分析的科学性和可靠性。本文利用基于GPU加速的模板匹配方法对2017年8月1～12日的连续波形进行扫描计算,检测九寨沟M_S7.0地震前后遗漏的地震事件,选取台网目录中信噪比较高的1033个地震事件作为模板,在主震前7天至震后5天期间识别出4854个检测地震事件,为台网可定位目录的3.3倍,除去对台网单台地震事件的修正外,还检测到1797个遗漏地震事件,将完备震级从1.6级降低到1.4级。基于补充了遗漏地震的完整地震目录,对2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震序列活动特征进行分析。结果表明,前震序列在主震前短时间内出现了地震活动的密集增强,b值也显示为低值状态,可能是深部断层发生破裂之前的加速蠕动的结果。随着时间的推移,余震序列的完备震级逐渐下降并趋于稳定,b值存在缓慢升高的趋势,未来较长时期内余震序列仍将处于持续衰减的状态。     

DETAILED TEMPORAL-SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INDUCED EARTHQUAKES BY WATER INJECTION IN RONGCHANG,CHONGQING

Based on the seismic data collected from regional permanent stations and 6 temporal stations, we analyzed the seismic activity from October 2008 to July 2011 in Rongchang area. On the basis of HypoDD relocated results, we used Match&Locate method to detect and located the micro-earthquakes. We obtained the focal mechanism solutions of some earthquakes with M_L ≥ 3.5 by using CAP method. Then we analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution of earthquakes and discussed the characteristics of micro-seismicity before the M_L5.1 earthquake occurring on September 10, 2010. We totally detected 3 354 micro-earthquake events, which are nearly 5 times of the earthquakes in the seismic catalog issued by China Earthquake Networks Center. The magnitude of the detected events is mostly from M_L-1 to 1, and the focal depth is from 2 to 4km. The magnitude-frequency analysis shows that the catalog completeness is obviously improved after adding the detected earthquakes, with the lowest magnitude decreasing from M_L1.0 to 0.3. The earthquakes hypocenters are mainly clustered along faults or buried faults and in a dominant depth range consistent with the depth of injection wells, and also show a tendency of lateral extension from injection wells. The focal mechanism solutions of 9 earthquakes of M_L ≥ 3.5 presented reverse faulting, as the same as the preexisting faults, indicating that earthquakes were surely related to reactivation of the faults. The strike, dip and rate of the causative faults separated in wide ranges, which indicates not only obvious changes in structure and strike of preexisting faults but also the effect of increasing pore pressure on the local stress field. Before the M_L5.1 earthquake on September 10 of 2010, seismicity firstly showed clustering in time and covered the most part of the seismogenic fault in space. Then an obvious seismic quiescence occurred and lasted about 3 months. The phenomenon is consistent with the mechanism of creep sliding and resistance-uniformization along the fault zone, suggested on the basis of laboratory experiments, and it may be one of patterns of sub-instability along fault zone. However, such explanation needs to be further confirmed.     

Modeling the dynamics of the block structure and seismicity of the Caucasus

Based on the morphostructural zoning scheme of the Caucasus, the block structure reflecting the real fault geometry and the block formation of the region is constructed. Several dozens of numerical experiments are conducted for simulating the dynamics of the block structure and the arising seismicity. The modeling relies on the following principles. It is assumed that the structure is composed of perfectly rigid blocks separated by infinitely thin fault planes. On the fault planes and on the blocks' bottoms, the blocks viscoelastically interact with each other and with the underlying medium. At each time instant, the translational displacements and rotations of the blocks are calculated from the condition of the quasi-static equilibrium of the entire block structure. The earthquakes occur in accordance with the dry friction model at the time instants when within a certain segment of the fault the stress-to-pressure ratio exceeds the given threshold. The modeling yields the synthetic catalog of the Caucasian earthquakes the spatial distribution of which reflects a set of characteristic features of the real seismicity. The similarity is observed in the magnitude–frequency diagrams of the synthetic and real seismicity. The comparison of the positions of the epicenters of the strong synthetic earthquakes with the results of recognizing the highly seismically active areas in the Caucasus demonstrates the presence of such epicenters in a few highly active areas where, according to the observations, strong earthquakes have not occurred to date.     

利用波形互相关方法识别分析灌县—安县断裂重复地震

以中国地震台网中心地震目录中的事件为模板地震,通过滑动窗口的波形互相关方法对布设在灌县—安县断裂周边17个流动地震台的连续地震记录进行处理,识别M_L0.0以上的重复地震. 然后使用结合波形互相关技术的双差算法对这些地震进行重定位,获得了243次地震的重定位结果. 结果表明: 在研究时段内,灌县—安县断裂的地震活动性呈减弱趋势; 地震震源的优势分布深度为5—15 km,震源深度剖面显示地震呈高角度向西倾斜分布; 地震震中沿NE向分布,与龙门山前山断裂的走向基本一致; 研究区内南、 北两段的地震活动性及b值存在差异,这可能与龙门山断裂带中段区域应力方向由南到北发生的WNW向到ENE向转换的构造作用密切相关.      

Changes in earthquake energy class as a factor affecting the parameters of the recurrence relation: The Baikal region

The numerical modeling of actually observed events contained in the Baikal earthquake catalog allowed the production of synthetic catalogs. These catalogs reflect real situations that can give rise to heterogeneities in earthquake catalogs acquired by seismological monitoring. For each of the resulting 65 catalogs we calculated the slope γ and seismic activity (so-called in Russian; it is the seismicity rate or the constant term in the frequency-size relation) A ₁₀ in the recurrence relation. We also investigated the effects of changes in estimates of earthquake energy class on the parameters of the recurrence relation. It was shown that the slope γ is not very sensitive, but that the seismic activity A ₁₀ is sensitive, to changes in earthquake energy class and can be used to test an earthquake catalog for heterogeneity. Formulas were derived to relate the parameters of recurrence relations and the scaling factors of two energy scales, which can yield recurrence parameters for one of the scales, provided we know the ratio of the respective scaling factors and the recurrence parameters based on the other scale.     

联合概率法在合并相邻台网地震目录中的应用:以2014年鲁甸序列为例

中国目前实行的区域地震台网独立运行机制,使得在相邻不同台网的交界地区可能存在多个版本的地震目录和震相观测报告,影响了地震活动性分析与研究.为此,本文提出了一种基于联合概率的方法,可标明两个或多个相邻台网目录中相同的事件,合并它们的震相数据开展重新定位,并重构不同台网交界地区的统一地震目录.该方法的思路与分析步骤是：首先,计算获得不同台网之间具有最小发震时刻差异的两两地震的时空强差异分布,查找并剔除独立地震,计算事件合并的联合概率;其次,基于联合概率分析合并不同台网的地震目录和震相观测报告,对合并事件进行重新定位和定位误差分析,并基于G-R关系检验重构目录的完整性.本文以2014年鲁甸地震序列为例的初步应用结果显示,震相合并之后的地震定位精度相比之前单个台网的结果,特别是相比四川台网的目录,定位精度提高非常显著,合并后的目录与之前相对完整的云南目录接近,但相比由两个台网目录简单拼凑而成的目录更加准确.此外,研究还发现在目录合并过程中,对于4级以上的中强震,应选择M_S而不是以M_L震级标度;震相合并后被复用台站记录的到时信息可用于检测不同台网间的震相拾取是否存在系统偏差.本文提出的方法使得在相邻不同台网的过渡区形成一个统一且尽可能准确可靠的地震目录成为可能.     

中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析

地震目录资料是进行地震预测、地震危险性分析、地震活动性研究等地震学研究的基础资料.对地震目录资料的完整性可靠性分析是地震学研究的基础工作之一.近几十年来我国积累的大量的仪器地震记录,历史地震也在不断更新,为地震活动性研究提供了更为丰富的样本,因此有必要对新的地震目录进行完整性分析.本文采用了新的统计方法对我国仪器记录地震目录和历史破坏性地震目录进行了完整性分析.结果表明,对于仪器记录地震目录（M≥3.0）我国东部地区1975年后基本完整,西部地区1980年后基本完整.对于历史地震目录（M≥5.0）,东部地区1500年后基本完整,西部地区1950年后基本完整.考虑到华北地震区历史破坏性地震（M≥4³/₄）活动的时间非平稳性,我们采用突变点分析法研究了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录的时间特征,得到了华北地震区地震活动周期性变化的突变点位置,并揭示了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录完整起始时间约为公元1500年前后.     

2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震前后地震活动性

2014年 8月3日在云南省鲁甸县发生M_S6.5地震,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失.关于鲁甸地震的起因,特别是鲁甸地震与溪洛渡水库之间的关系存在一些争议.分析中强地震前后地震活动性的变化可以为判断主震起源提供一定的依据.然而,由于鲁甸地震震中附近固定台站数目少、台站距离震中远及主震后尾波干扰等因素的影响,会造成地震目录的缺失,从而可能影响地震活动性的可靠分析.为了获得更加完备的地震目录,本文采用模板匹配方法对鲁甸地震前后小地震进行了搜索和识别.以台网目录中的541个事件作为模板,在主震之前33天到主震后5天的连续波形中识别出991个未在目录中列出的地震,使余震的完备震级从1.8降低到1.3.根据检测目录得到主震前33天内的b值为1.04±0.18,余震的b值在震后5天内由0.5左右逐渐上升至0.9附近并保持稳定;根据2009年到主震发生前的台网目录得到该区域的背景b值为0.93±0.04.即鲁甸地震前后区域地震活动b值均与背景b值接近,这与典型水库诱发的中强震具有的b值特征不相符.同时通过进一步分析台网目录,未发现溪洛渡水库蓄水前后研究区域内的地震活动性存在明显变化,这也与典型水库诱发地震区域的地震活动性特征不相符.综合以上结果,我们认为2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震不具有典型水库诱发地震的特征.     

The Grouping of the Strike-Slip Offset Data and Its Relation With the Seismicity Along Middle Segment of the Xiaojiang Active Fault

The data of the strike-slip offset along the Xiaojiang active fault can be obviously grouped.The groups of small orders of magnitude data within 100 m show clear linear characteristics of increments between 8 m and 12 m,which indicates that the segments of the Xiaojiang active fault is of characteristic seismicity and the distribution of the values of each group indicates that there are smaller earthquakes and creep between two large earthquakes along each segment of the Xiaojiang active fault.The interval between two characteristic large earthquakes can be calculated with the increments for two groups of slip data and the slip rate of the fault.Furthermore,the frequency of smaller earthquakes can also be estimated by comparing the distributions of the displacements of the large earthquakes with the distributions of the values of each group of data.The groups of large slip displacements show that there is close relationship between the records of the displacements of the fault and the changes of the cli     

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast.     

Ergodicity examined by the Thirumalai-Mountain metric for Taiwanese seismicity

Ergodicity is a behavior generally limited to equilibrium states and is here defined as the equivalence of ensemble and temporal averages. In recent years, effective ergodicity is identified in simulated earthquakes generated by numerical fault models and in real seismicity of natural fault networks by using the Thirumalai-Mountain metric. Although the effective ergodicity is already reported for Taiwanese seismicity, an immediate doubt is the unrealistic gridded sizes for discretizing the seismic data. In this study, we re-examined the effective ergodicity in Taiwanese seismicity by using reasonable gridded sizes which corresponded with the location errors in the real earthquake catalogue. Initial time and magnitude cut-off were examined for the validity of ergodic behavior. We found that several subsets extracted from Taiwanese seismicity possessed effectively ergodic intervals and all terminations of these ergodic intervals temporally coincided with the occurrences of large earthquakes (M _L < 6.5). We thus confirm the ergodicity in the crustal seismicity by using the Thirumalai-Mountain metric.