Some Observations on the Use of Data from Historical Documents in Debris-Flow Studies

The knowledge of past events is important for the assessment of debris-flow hazard. Amongst the sources of information, documents from historical archives are particularly important in sites where the debris flows cause damage to urban areas and transportation routes. The paper analyses the availability of historical documents on debris flows in Northeastern Italy and discusses factors that can influence the building of time series from archive data both at regional and single basin scales. An increased number of debris flows was observed in the studied region for the last decades. This could be due both to an increased frequency of the events and to a larger availability of information: the analysis carried out indicates that the latter factor is probably the most influencing. The importance of factors, which affect the collection of data, including the conservation of documents and the presence and fragility of the elements at risk, is stressed in view of a wise use of historical data on debris flows.     

Natural hazards in the Bavarian Alps: a historical approach to risk assessment

The Bavarian Alps region is strongly affected by various natural hazards, mainly hydrological events (floods, debris flows), geomorphic/geological events (landslides, rock falls), and avalanches. Extraordinary floods, like in 2002 or in the summer of 2005 in south Bavaria, have again posed the question of the possible extent and frequency of recurrence of catastrophic events. To put risk assessment on a broader basis historical data about all kinds of past natural hazards were detected in the archives of local authorities and administrative offices for water management. More than 10,000 sources (written accounts, maps, and photographs) were collated in a database. The majority of this information reaches back to the middle of the 19th century. In addition, many documents referring to events dating back even as far as the middle age were found. The Historische Analyse von NaturGefahren (HANG, historical analysis of natural hazards) project at the University of Eichstaett mainly focuses on a small-scale examination of the data. Initial results of the data analysis show that most catastrophic events in the Bavarian Alps only affect parts of the area, but not the whole region. Therefore it is necessary to assess the risk potential on a local scale like valleys, the catchment areas of mountain streams, or even single streams. Firstly the presented data is aimed to help engineers in future planning of hazard-protection measures. Secondly the information can form a vital component to enhance our knowledge of hydrological and geomorphic/geological dynamics in the Alps.     

Reconstructing historical seismicity from lake sediments (Lake Laffrey, Western Alps, France)

Sediment archives from a mountain lake are used as indicators of seismotectonic activity in the Grenoble area (French western Alps, 45°N). Sedimentological analysis (texture and grain-size characteristics) exhibits several layers resulting from instantaneous deposits in Lake Laffrey: six debris flow events up to 8 cm thick can be attributed to slope failure along the western flank of the basin. Dating with ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs gamma counting techniques and the reconnaissance of historical events, provide a constrained age-depth model. Over the last 250 years, five of such debris flow deposits could be related to historical earthquakes of MSK intensities greater than VI over an area of <60 km. One debris flow deposit triggered at the beginning of the last century can be related to an historical landslide possibly triggered by the artificial regulation of the lake level.     

Database of geo-hydrological disasters for civil protection purposes

This paper presents the results of a research concerning available historical information about natural hazards (landslides and floods) and consequent disasters in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano, in Northern Italy. A geo-referenced database, collecting information till 2008, was designed with the aim of using available data of historical events for hazard estimation and the definition of risk scenarios as a basis for Civil Protection planning and emergency management purposes. This database and related statistics about landslides and floods are shown, and a brief overview of historical disasters caused by natural hazards in the study area is presented. A case study showing how useful the database can be to define a simple but realistic scenario is described. Information availability and reliability is discussed and possible uncertainties are underlined. The study shows that collecting and making use of historical information for the definition of hypothetical scenarios and the evaluation of territorial threats is a fundamental source of knowledge to deal with future emergencies.     

Magnitude–frequency relations in debris flow

Debris flow occurs frequently in mountainous regions in China. Because of the difficulties involved in predicting and catching live debris flows, an assessment of the potential for debris flow is crucial in hazard mitigation. Magnitude–frequency (MF) relations are of special significance in such assessments. In previous studies, MF relations have been inferred by analyzing environmental factors and historical records and using empirical relations. This paper is concerned with the derivation of MF relations at regional and valley scales, using a large database of statistics. At the regional scale, it is represented by the distribution of the valley area, because the area is often taken to indicate the potential magnitude of debris flow. Statistics from over 5,000 debris flow valleys in various provinces in China show that a power law holds for the distribution, i.e., p(A) ∼ A ⁻ⁿ , where p(A) is the percentage of valleys with area A and n varies with region and thus describes regional differences. At the valley scale, a case study focusing on Jiangjia Gully (JJG) was conducted, and the MF relations derived from it were expressed by the distributions of discharge and runoff (i.e., the total volume) of living debris flows observed over the last 40 years. The distributions can be expressed as exponential functions where the exponents vary with the events. These MF relations provide not only a potential quantitative reference for practical purposes but also hint at the intrinsic properties of the debris flow.     

中国北方过去2000年沙尘事件与气候变化*

文章依据冰芯、树木年轮等自然记录和历史文献记录,分析了中国北方不同地区近2000年的沙尘事件及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,在干旱区西部,历史时期的沙尘变化主要受温度变化的制约,无论在10年尺度,还是百年尺度上,沙尘事件与温度变化均表现为显著的反相关,即气候寒冷期与沙尘频发事件相对应,气候温暖期与沙尘发生变弱期一致;在半干旱区,在10年尺度上温度和降水序列与沙尘发生频率均显著负相关,但在百年尺度上沙尘与降水变化的关系更为密切;在干旱区东部,沙尘与气候变化的关系具有明显的过渡性特征,气候变化对沙尘事件的作用主要在百年尺度上体现出来,沙尘与温度记录的负相关比降水更好,在10年尺度上气候与沙尘序列尽管也是负相关,但不显著。通过对现代气象记录的气温、降水变化和沙尘事件频数分析,其结果与历史时期情况基本一致。     

中国历史耕地变化及其对自然环境的影响*

农业开发已经直接或间接地影响并正在影响自然环境的许多方面,中国农业开发历史悠久,对自然环境造成的影响广泛而强烈,对认识人类活动导致的全球与区域环境变化具有代表性。文中总结了近年来基于考古和历史文献记录的中国历史耕地变化定量重建和耕地开发环境影响的研究成果。主要结论包括: (1)中国在历史耕地变化重建方面具有独特的优势,主要数据源包括田亩、税赋、人口等与耕地数量相关的数值记录,考古遗址点、聚落、路网、行政建制等与农业活动相关的信息,有关土地开发和农业生产的描述性记录等三大类。 (2)对全国尺度的耕地面积推断始于春秋战国时期,过去1000年以来已重建了省(路)域的垦殖率,过去300年基于历史记录重建的东北、华北等区域垦殖率的分辨率已到县,在重建基础上利用分配模型获得的过去300年格网化垦殖率的分辨率可达10 km×10 km甚至1 km×1 km。相比于当前广泛使用的国际数据集,这些区域定量重建结果更为准确。(3)历史时期中国耕地的3次大规模扩张分别主要出现在西汉、两宋和清中叶,与此相对应,植被破坏和水土流失从北方地区扩展到南方地区,从平原低地扩展到低山丘陵、深山地区;过去300年耕地变化导致了碳排放的增加和可辨识的区域气候变化。未来中国的历史耕地变化重建及其对环境影响研究,应与国际过去土地利用/覆盖研究衔接,研究重点为延长历史耕地重建时限、提高重建单元的空间分辨率和改进耕地格网化分配模型。     

中国玛珥湖及其研究意义

随着全球变化研究的深入,科学家们认识到古气候变化除轨道尺度的冰期/间冰期旋回之外还存在年代际-千年尺度的高频变化和突变事件。要认知这些变化,古气候记录的时间分辨率要达到"年-年代际"。因此,寻求时间跨度长、连续性好、信息丰富的高分辨率记录是过去全球变化研究面临的主要任务之一。玛珥湖为火山射汽喷发形成的封闭湖泊,由于其独特的形成机制及水文背景,使其能够提供数万年乃至几十万年连续稳定的沉积记录,是高分辨率古气候、古环境变化研究的重要对象。中国玛珥湖得天独厚,从热带到寒温带均有分布,为系统研究中国不同气候区各种时间尺度古气候变化规律提供了理想材料。本文基于中国玛珥湖的分布及沉积特征,探讨玛珥湖沉积记录能够为古全球变化研究做出怎样的贡献,解决什么科学问题,具体包括以下三个方面的内容:(1)在轨道尺度上,精确定位现代气候在地质历史中的位置是未来最具挑战性的科学问题之一。我国热带地区玛珥湖沉积物跨越了至少4个冰期-间冰期旋回,能够为理解冰期驱动机制、下一次冰期来临、高低纬关联等关键科学问题提供多学科数据;(2)千年尺度古气候变化,其成因可能源于不同的动力学机制,是气候系统对各种外部和内部驱动因子响应的结果,因此千年震荡可能存在明显的时空差异。集成不同气候带的玛珥湖沉积记录将为理解千年震荡规律及其驱动因子做出贡献;(3)年-年代际气候变化是预测未来气候变化的基础,PAGES、IPCC以及PAGES-Asia 2K均将过去2千年来气候变化作为预测未来几十年至百年尺度上重大全球变化的背景,并为此构建全球数据体系,玛珥湖沉积特别是纹层沉积记录能够填补某些地区高分辨率数据的空白。     

A Review of Studies Dealing with Tree Rings and Rockfall Activity: The Role of Dendrogeomorphology in Natural Hazard Research

Over the last few years, rockfall research has increasingly focused on hazard assessment and risk analysis. Input data on past rockfall activity were gathered from historical archives and lichenometric studies or were obtained through frequency–volume statistics. However, historical records are generally scarce, and lichenometry may only yield data with relatively low resolutions. On forested slopes, in contrast, tree-ring analyses may help, generally providing annual data on past rockfall activity over long periods. It is the purpose of the present literature review to survey the current state of investigations dealing with tree-ring sequences and rockfall activity, with emphasis on the extent to which dendrogeomorphology may contribute to rockfall research. Firstly, a brief introduction describes how dendrogeomorphological methods can contribute to natural hazard research. Secondly, an account is provided of the output of dendrogeomorphological studies investigating frequencies, volumes or spatial distributions of past rockfall activity. The current and potential strengths of dendrogeomorphology are then presented before, finally, the weaknesses of tree rings as natural archives of past rockfall activity are discussed and promising directions for further studies outlined.     

冰川泥石流形成机理研究进展

由于冰川泥石流的广泛分布及其发育地的特殊性使得对其开展全面治理较为困难,因此,有效开展冰川泥石流的预警预报具有重要意义.虽然近年来对冰川泥石流的研究有了较多的成果,但目前对其形成机理的认识还存在很大的局限,在很大程度上制约了防灾减灾的进展.为深入探讨冰川泥石流的形成机理,文章回顾了国内外学者在相关领域的研究成果,系统总结了现有冰川泥石流形成机理的研究现状,并对冰川泥石流形成机理的未来研究方向做了展望.     

太湖沉积对流域极端降水和洪水响应的研究

认识极端洪水特征和周期,急需建立长期洪水记录和序列。过去150 a来长江下游极端降水引发了多次太湖特大洪水,太湖湖泊沉积提供了长于观测资料的洪水记录。本文利用太湖中心开阔水域的近现代沉积,采用210Pb和137Cs测年法和粒度、磁学特征分析,与区域夏季降水和长江下游洪峰流量进行相关分析,恢复了太湖流域150 a来的历史洪水事件。根据长江下游极端夏季降水（Pjja≥90%百分位）和极端径流(Q≥90%百分位)以及历史文献记载,太湖流域自1840年以来约有24次特大洪水年,而湖泊沉积物砂级粒径与低频磁化率等特征能捕获与之对应的中洪水事件15次。这表明湖泊沉积记录能较好地反演过去洪水变化,为利用沉积记录认识百年极端洪水长周期变化和特征提供了沉积学、磁学等方面的科学依据。     

2014年长江口咸潮入侵分析及对策

长江口咸潮入侵是枯水期经常发生的一种自然现象,但2014年初的咸潮入侵相比往年尤甚。分析了本次咸潮入侵的基本情况和形成的原因,探讨了长江口咸潮入侵的机理和入侵途径,并结合历史资料,分析了新形势下长江口咸潮入侵出现的新特点。在此基础上,从水源地布局、技术措施、水资源管理和长江流域水量的统一调配等方面研究了如何有效应对长江口咸潮入侵对自来水原水供应的影响。     

The inexact catalogue: the study of more than 1700 earthquakes from the XI to the XX century in Italy*

The relevant results of the study of more than 1700 Italian historical earthquakes from the year 1000 to 1982 are presented here. The research was carried out from 1983 to 1987 as part of a study promoted by ENEL (the National Electricity Board) for the seismic siting of nuclear power plants. A single coherent project has been developed, that involved 111 historical researchers who operated in 813 research centres in Italy and abroad. Problems such as the methods, research, analysis and interpretation of the numerous and various effects caused both by destructive and non-destructive earthquakes recorded in the historical sources, have been considered on a large scale for the first time. The earthquake records, collected in a data bank and interpreted according to a multi-disciplinary historical and seismological approach, have allowed the detailed reconstruction of the location and chronology of both individual and repeated events. This major research study has allowed us to evaluate the inexactness of the present Catalogue of Italian earthquakes in relation to the parameters of intensity, location and dating. From the synthesis of the results of the revision emerged sufficient information to value the reliability of the present Catalogue. TERRA Nova (1989) 1 , 151–162.     

Historical intensity VIII earthquakes along the Rhone valley (Valais, Switzerland): primary and secondary effects

In recent years the upper Rhone Valley has been one of the most intensively investigated regions by the Swiss Seismological Service. The high seismicity in the region encourages research in the seismological field and one main focus has been historical seismology. This report presents the state of the art of our historical investigations by giving an overview of the effects of four damaging earthquakes with intensity larger than VII, for which a fairly large number of documents could be found and analyzed. The overview includes the events of 1584 (Aigle, epicentral intensity VIII), 1755 (Brig, epicentral intensity VIII), 1855 (Visp, epicentral intensity VIII), and 1946 (Sierre, epicentral intensity VIII for the main shock and intensity VII for the largest aftershock). The paper focuses mainly on primary and secondary effects in the epicentral region, providing the key data and a general characterization of the event. Generally, primary effects such as the reaction of the population and impact on buildings took more focus in the past. Thus building damage is more frequently described in historic documents. However, we also found a number of sources describing secondary effects such as landslides, snow avalanches, and liquefaction. Since the sources may be useful, we include citations of these documents. The 1584 Aigle event, for example, produced exceptional movements in Lake Geneva, which can be explained by an expanded sub aquatic slide with resultant tsunami and seiche. The strongest of the aftershocks of the 1584 event triggered a destructive landslide covering the villages Corbeyrier and Yvorne, VD. All macroseismic data on the discussed events are accessible through the webpage of the Swiss Seismological Service (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch).     

Surface faulting in Norcia (central Italy): a “paleoseismological perspective”

We carried out paleoseismological analyses in Norcia, one of the oldest town of central Italy. Four trenches were dug in late Pleistocene–Holocene deposits, across an unmapped, antithetic splay of the Norcia Fault System. The investigated fault runs through the recent settlement of the town, brushing against the middle-age city walls. We found evidence of repeated surface ruptures in the past 20 ky, the last one dated to a period fitting with the 1703 AD, catastrophic earthquake (M = 6.8). Our data (i) show definitively the late Pleistocene–Holocene activity of the Norcia Fault System, (ii) strengthen the historical accounts describing surface ruptures during the 1703 event in Norcia, (iii) cast light on the seismogenic behavior of the 70-km-long fault system between L'Aquila and Norcia (central Italy) and (iv) predict the occurrence of normal surface faulting inside the municipality of Norcia during future M ≥ 6 earthquakes.     

A new monitoring station for debris flows in the European Alps: first observations in the Gadria basin

Debris-flow monitoring in instrumented areas is an invaluable way to gather field data that may improve the understanding of these hazardous phenomena. A new experimental site has been equipped in the Autonomous Province of Bozen-Bolzano (Eastern Alps, Italy) for both monitoring purposes and testing early warning systems. The study site (Gadria basin) is a 6.3 km² catchment subjected to frequent debris flows. The monitoring system in the Gadria basin consists of rain gauges, radar sensors, geophones, video cameras, piezometers and soil moisture probes. Transmission of data and alerts from the instruments exploits in part radio technology. The paper presents the data gathered during the first three years of activity, with two debris-flow events recorded at the station varying in magnitude and characteristics, and discusses the perspectives of debris-flow monitoring and related research.     

Advances in Structural Geology and Tectonics in the Late 20th Century： A Review

Based on analyses of the share of documents of structural geology and tectonics in the GeoRef system over 100 years in the last century, and the historical change of international （31 years） and domestic （16 years） document counts of various topics in structural geology and tectonics, the position of structural geology and tectonics in the geosciences is evaluated and the major advaces in fields of plate tectonics, continental dynamics and global dynamics are reviewed. Our attention mainly focuses on the advances in studies of structural analysis, deformation mechanisms and rheology of rocks, contractional tectonics and late- and post-orogenic extensional collapse in orogens, large-scale strikeslip faults and indentation-extrusion tectonics, active tectonics and natural hazards. The relationships of structural geology and tectonics with petrology and geochronology are also discussed in terms of intersection of scientific disciplines. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the further development of structural geology and tectonics in China.     

Benford’s Law in Time Series Analysis of Seismic Clusters

Benford’s analysis is applied to the recurrence times of approximately 17,000 seismic events in different geological contexts of Italy over the last 6 years, including the Mt. Etna volcanic area and the seismic series associated with the destructive M _w 6.3, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. A close conformity to Benford’s law and a power-law probability distribution for the recurrence times of consecutive events is found, as typical of random multiplicative processes. The application of Benford’s law to the recurrence event times in seismic series of specific seismogenic regions represents a novel approach, which enlarges the occurrence and relevance of Benford-like asymmetries, with implications on the physics of natural systems approaching a power law behaviour. Moreover, we propose that the shift from a close conformity of Benford’s law to Brownian dynamics, observed for time separations among non-consecutive events in the study seismic series, may be ruled by a periodical noise factor, such as the effects of Earth tides on seismicity tuning.