Three Recent Extreme Floods in Bangladesh: A Hydro-Meteorological Analysis

Bangladesh is highly vulnerableto floods due to its geographical location at the deltas of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers. About 92.5 per cent of the area of three basins lies outside the boundaries of the country. More than 80 per cent of the annual precipitation of Bangladesh occurs in the monsoon period between June and September. The hydro-meteorological characteristics of the three river basins are unique and they often cause large to extremely large floods in Bangladesh. It is possible that these floods could inundate 70 per cent of the country and the physical damage could be very serious for the economy of Bangladesh with its low gross domestic product (GDP). In 1987, 1988 and 1998, Bangladesh experienced three extreme floods, leaving trails of devastation and human misery. In this article it is demonstrated that these floods differed in terms of magnitude, extent, depth and duration. The external and internal hydro-meteorological dynamics were also different.     

Hydrogeological condition and assessment of groundwater resource using visual modflow modeling,Rajshahi city aquifer,Bangladesh

The Rajshahi city is the fourth largest metropolitan city in Bangladesh on the bank of the River Padma (Ganges). Here an upper semi-impervious layer overlies aquifer — the source for large-scale groundwater development. The groundwater resource study using Visual MODFLOW modeling shows that recharge occurs mainly due to infiltration of rainfall and urban return flow at low rate, and water level fluctuates seasonally in response to recharge and discharge. Hydraulic connection between river and aquifer which indicates inflow from high river water levels beyond its boundaries. The total groundwater abstraction in 2004 (15000 million liters) is lower than total input to aquifer reveals an ample potentiality for groundwater development with increasing demand. But groundwater shortage (1000 million liter/year) especially in the vicinity of the River Padma in dry season happens due to its increasing use and fall of river water level resulting in reduced inflows and hence decline in groundwater level. The conjunctive use of surface water-groundwater and its economic use will help for sustainable groundwater supply to avoid adverse impact.     

Floods in megacity environments: vulnerability and coping strategies of slum dwellers in Dhaka/Bangladesh

In many megacities of the global south, the combination of rapid population growth and high pressure on space for housing, results in urban growth taking place in areas particularly prone to natural hazards. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is no exception to this rule. Many marginal settlements or slums are located on low-lying land at high risk of flooding. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of slum dwellers in Dhaka and highlights the major factors behind their sensitivity to floods and their ability to adapt to the related changes. The empirical findings presented are based on a questionnaire survey covering 625 households in five slum areas of Dhaka. Our data suggests that social capital plays an important role with regard to the ability of slum dwellers to find ways to live with the floods. Regardless of how strongly people are affected, mutual help and support are dominant features in times of crises. While poorly educated and resourced slum dwellers are highly vulnerable to external shocks, they still show a surprising capacity to cope with natural calamities.     

Mangrove wetland ecosystems in Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh

The Sundarbans is one of the productive mangrove wetland ecosystems in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh. The delta is undergoing rapid ecological changes due to human activity. In the present study, surface water salinity data from 13 rivers of the Sundarbans were collected in order to investigate the saline water intrusion in the mangrove wetlands. Results demonstrate that saline water has penetrated the upstream area as river water salinity has increased significantly in 1976 compared to the year 1968. The soil and river water salinity data also shows that it has crossed the water salinity threshold line in most parts of the Sundarbans wetlands. These observations are due to the construction of Farakka Barrage in 1975, which reduced the water discharge of the Ganges River from 3700 m³/s in 1962 to 364 m³/s in 2006. The shortage of freshwater discharge to the deltaic area is trailing active ecosystems function, especially in the dry season in the south western region in Bangladesh. The objective of this study is to understand and analyze the present degraded mangrove wetland ecosystems and their negative impacts. The findings of this study would contribute to the formulation of the mangrove wetland ecosystems management plan in the Ganges delta of Bangladesh.     

Regional Cooperation in Flood Management in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Region: Bangladesh Perspective

Bangladesh is known to behighly vulnerable to floods. Frequent floods have put enormous constraints on its development potential. Unfortunately, the frequency of high intensity floods is on the rise. So far the country has struggled to put a sizeable infrastructure in place to prevent flooding in may parts of the country with limited success. In recent times, it was found that losses of lives and valuable assets could be significantly minimized by implementing non-structural measures including the improvement of flood forecasting and warning system. The existing flood forecasting and warning capacity of Bangladesh could be more effective if real-timedata could be acquired from upstreamareas within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) catchment, where runoff is generated. In order to do so, Bangladesh needs to foster an effective regional cooperationwith the other GBM regional countries of India, Nepal, and Bhutan. This article examines how GBM regional cooperation could be useful towards managing floods in Bangladesh in particularand the region in general.     

Decadal flood trends in Bangladesh from extensive hydrographic data

Bangladesh is a country that comprises much of the world’s largest delta, formed from the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) rivers and their tributaries. Flooding is a fact of life in Bangladesh where up to two-thirds of the country is flooded annually from combined monsoonal rains and Himalayan snowmelt. For this reason, understanding flood dynamics on both local and regional scales is critical. However, flood hazard studies to date typically rely on single flooding events to create flood maps and to evaluate flood hazards using satellite imagery. Here we use geographic information systems to analyze weekly water level data from 304 river gauges and over 1200 groundwater gauges from the Bangladesh Water Development Board to determine the spatial and temporal changes in flood depth and extent. These data cover an eight year period from 2002 to 2010 and provide a temporal resolution that match or are better than that of available satellite imagery. Country-wide ground and surface water levels and corresponding annual flooding events were determined along with groundwater level, flooding, and precipitation trends in Bangladesh at multiple scales. We find that while precipitation within the GBM basin has steadily increased through the time series, the average country-wide inundation depth and absolute water level has been decreasing. These respective trends could be attributed to improved flood management strategies in Bangladesh and surrounding countries that are within the GBM basin, as well as fluctuating weather patterns, declining volume of Himalayan snowmelt runoff, dam construction upriver from the GBD both within and outside the Bangladesh border, and increased groundwater abstraction of shallow groundwater aquifers for sustaining life in the eighth most populous country in the world.     

东亚夏季风水汽输送带及其对中国大暴雨与洪涝灾害的影响

东亚夏季风每年给中国东部地区带来充沛的降水，是中国水资源的主要来源，同时也常常给中国造成严重的洪涝灾害。东亚夏季风水汽输送的强度、影响范围和持续性在极端暴雨过程中起着关键的作用。这支夏季风气流的水汽输送带可称为东亚季风水汽输送带，与国际上近期提出的"大气河"概念相近，但又不完全相同。东亚夏季风水汽输送带是东亚夏季风最具地区性的特征，也是东亚地区夏季大暴雨和洪涝的制造者。本文根据近百年来的资料，综合评述了东亚夏季风水汽输送带的特征和形成原因，并以海河、黄河、淮河与长江近百年最强的5次持续大暴雨过程为例，分析了季风水汽输送带的重要作用。最后，提出气候变暖可以通过4个方面影响全球水循环，包括气候变暖后大气可容纳更多的水汽、大气环流发生变化、辐射强迫改变以及气溶胶影响的区域性等，这些变化都会对季风水汽输送带产生重要影响。     

Natural hazards in the Ghaghara River area, Ganga Plain, India

The Ganga Plain is one of the most densely populated regions of the world due to its fertile soil and availability of water. The rivers of this plain are the lifeline for millions of people of this vast alluvial plain. All rivers of this plain are characterized by narrow channel confined within wide valley. Continuously increasing pressure of population on this plain has led to the intensification of settlement even into the valley of the river. This unplanned expansion has enhanced the damage due to flooding during high-discharge period and lateral erosion during low-discharge period. Flooding and lateral erosion are identified as fluvial hazards in the Ghaghara River area. Extensive studies have been carried out on flooding, but not much attention has been paid to the phenomenon of lateral erosion. However, it has been observed that lateral erosion is an independent fluvial hazard that operates during low-discharge period. Low degree of compaction due to the presence of sandy and silty facies in the river valley deposits, mass movement, palaeocurrent pattern, and fractures initiates and enhances the lateral erosion. The present paper deals with the fluvial hazards in the Ghaghara River area.     

东亚夏季风水汽输送带及其对中国大暴雨与洪涝灾害的影响

东亚夏季风每年给中国东部地区带来充沛的降水，是中国水资源的主要来源，同时也常常给中国造成严重的洪涝灾害。东亚夏季风水汽输送的强度、影响范围和持续性在极端暴雨过程中起着关键的作用。这支夏季风气流的水汽输送带可称为东亚季风水汽输送带，与国际上近期提出的"大气河"概念相近，但又不完全相同。东亚夏季风水汽输送带是东亚夏季风最具地区性的特征，也是东亚地区夏季大暴雨和洪涝的制造者。本文根据近百年来的资料，综合评述了东亚夏季风水汽输送带的特征和形成原因，并以海河、黄河、淮河与长江近百年最强的5次持续大暴雨过程为例，分析了季风水汽输送带的重要作用。最后，提出气候变暖可以通过4个方面影响全球水循环，包括气候变暖后大气可容纳更多的水汽、大气环流发生变化、辐射强迫改变以及气溶胶影响的区域性等，这些变化都会对季风水汽输送带产生重要影响。     

Archaeological implications of late-holocene channel changes on the middle gila river,arizona

Archival and stratigraphic data from the middle Gila River, Arizona, provide insight into late-Holocene floods and channel changes that affected the Hohokam, prehistoric agriculturalists who practiced canal irrigation 2000-500 B.P. The relationship between floods and channel changes during the past 300 years is characterized by an increased frequency of wide, braided channel conditions during episodes of increased large flood frequency. Ten radiocarbon ages from overbank deposits from the middle Gila River flood plain indicate that the frequency of large floods was relatively low 4000-1000 B.P. (¹⁴C years) but increased after 1000 B.P., a pattern supported by paleoflood slackwater sites in the upper Gila River watershed. This suggests that channel instability (shifts between narrow, single-channel and wide, braided planforms) increased after 1000 B.P. The latter part of the 4000-1000 B.P. period of relative channel stability corresponds in time with the development of Hohokam irrigation agriculture and expansion of canal systems, whereas increased fluvial dynamics beginning 1000 B.P. correlate (in time) to changes in settlement patterns during the Sedentary-Classic period transition. Higher large flood frequency may be responsible for the consolidation of canal systems and relocation of villages along the middle Gila River after 1000 B.P. and during the Classic period. Increased flooding and concomitant channel changes alone, however, do not adequately explain the collapse of the Hohokam pattern.     

Recent floods in Bangladesh: Possible causes and solutions

In recent years the frequency of abnormal floods in Bangladesh has increased substantially, causing serious damage to lives and property. The most crucial questions that need to be addressed are: what really causes the havoc-creating floods and is there any solution to the problem? The heavy monsoon downpour and synchronization of flood-peaks of the major rivers are generally considered to be the main causes of the floods. Some underlying factors also deserve serious consideration as possible contributors to the recent floods: change in the base level of the rivers due to local sea level rise and subsidence, inadequate sediment accumulation on flood plains, a possible increase in the watershed area due to seismic and neotectonic activities in the region, river bed aggradation due to siltation and damming of rivers, soil erosion due to unwise tilling practices, deforestation in the upstream region, and excessive development and population growth. Without regional cooperation among the co-riparian nations any major interbasin flood control activity is considered to be almost impossible. However, among other proposals in this paper, extensive annual dredging of the rivers, channels and creeks, and reoccupation of the abandoned channels in Bangladesh through re-excavations could still increase the water carrying capacity of the rivers. Land elevations could be increased if the dredged or excavated materials are dispersed on the flood plains, which would in turn reduce the severity of floods.     

Hydrologic characteristics of floods in Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta

In the middle of 2007, a severe flood affected the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. This is a natural disaster that takes people’s lives, destroys livestock, infrastructures and communication systems and, damages crops and fish ponds. Despite many adverse impacts, the flood situation is an accepted phenomenon to the citizens of Bangladesh, due to the immense increase of soil fertility due to the flood, plus, the recharge of aquifer, ecosystem and fish. The flood of 2007 was the 5th major flood of the last 20 years when more than thirty-five percent of the area of the country was inundated with flood water. As in the past, the flood of 2007 had its own significance. The geography of the country contains a floodplain delta of three major river basins: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna (GBM). The mean monthly rainfall plot from the TRMM satellite data has shown that for both the Meghna and Brahmaputra basins, the rainfall was higher during July 2007 than any other months of the last 2 years. This excess rainfall had accumulated in the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers and carried downstream to Bangladesh. This was the main cause of the flooding in 2007. The first crossing above the danger level of the river waters was observed at Durgapur station of the Someswari and at Sunamganj station of the Surma on the nineteenth of July, 2007 inside Bangladesh. In terms of magnitude of the peak and duration of the flood, the Brahmaputra was higher in 2007 than during 2004. However, the Ganges river water level never crossed the danger level during flood of 2007. The Meghna was lower during the flood peak for the duration of the flood in 2007. The year–to-year variability in both the magnitude and duration of the flood suggests changes in rainfall and landuse pattern of the catchment.     

Flood risk assessment for informal settlements

The urban informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to flooding events, due to both their generally poor quality of construction and high population density. An integrated approach to the analysis of flooding risk of informal settlements should take into account, and propagate, the many sources of uncertainty affecting the problem, ranging from the characterization of rainfall curve and flooding hazard to the characterization of the vulnerability of the portfolio of buildings. This paper proposes a probabilistic and modular approach for calculating the flooding risk in terms of the mean annual frequency of exceeding a specific limit state for each building within the informal settlement and the expected number of people affected (if the area is not evacuated). The flooding risk in this approach is calculated by the convolution of flooding hazard and flooding fragility for a specified limit state for each structure within the portfolio of buildings. This is achieved by employing the flooding height as an intermediate variable bridging over the fragility and hazard calculations. The focus of this paper is on an ultimate limit state where the life of slum dwellers is endangered by flooding. The fragility is calculated by using a logic tree procedure where several possible combinations of building features/construction details, and their eventual outcome in terms of the necessity to perform structural analysis or the application of nominal threshold flood heights, are taken into account. The logic tree branch probabilities are characterized based on both the orthophoto recognition and the sample in situ building survey. The application of the methodology is presented for Suna, a sub-ward of Dar es Salaam City (Tanzania) in the Msimbazi River basin having a high concentration of informal settlements.     

Evaluation of morphometric parameters of drainage networks derived from topographic maps and DEM in point of floods

An evaluation of morphometric parameters of two drainage networks derived from different sources was done to determine the influence of sub-basins to flooding on the main channel in the Havran River basin (Balıkesir-Turkey). Drainage networks for the sub-basins were derived from both topographic maps scaled 1:25.000 and a 10-m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) using geographic information systems (GIS). Blue lines, representing fluvial channels on the topographic maps were accepted as a drainage network, which does not depict all exterior links in the basin. The second drainage network was extracted from the DEM using minimum accumulation area threshold to include all exterior links. Morphometric parameters were applied to the two types of drainage networks at sub-basin levels. These parameters were used to assess the influence of the sub-basins on the main channel with respect to flooding. The results show that the drainage network of sub-basin 4—where a dam was constructed on its outlet to mitigate potential floods—has a lower influence morphometrically to produce probable floods on the main channel than that of sub-basins 1, 3, and 5. The construction of the dam will help reduce flooding on the main channel from sub-basin 4 but it will not prevent potential flooding from sub-basin 1, 3 and 5, which join the main channel downstream of sub-basin 4. Therefore, flood mitigation efforts should be considered in order to protect the settlement and agricultural lands on the floodplain downstream of the dam. In order to increase our understanding of flood hazards, and to determine appropriate mitigation solutions, drainage morphometry research should be included as an essential component to hydrologic studies.     

September 2004 Flood Event in Southwestern Bangladesh: A Study of its Nature,Causes, and Human Perception and Adjustments to a New Hazard

This paper examines the nature and causes of September 2004 hazardous flood that affected the dry and drought prone southwestern region of Bangladesh. It also examines human perception of this new hazard and their methods of adjustments to its negative impacts. Field research for this study includes personal interviews of 453 victim families living in four thanas (lowest administrative units) in Jessore and Satkhira districts of southwestern Bangladesh. Findings of the study suggest that all victim respondents viewed this flood event as a natural hazard, which has caused severe damage to standing crops, fish ponds, permanent trees and homesteads, and deteriorated human health and sanitation conditions. Its long-term impacts on fish farming, soil quality degradation, as well as changing land use/land coverage are also noteworthy but yet to be adequately explored. Both perceived and scientific causes of this flood event include high rainfall for a week before the flood, unusual movement of low pressure system into the affected area, cloudy weather and low evaporation, siltation of the regional riverbeds, and rolling back of the Ganges River water through the Ichamati and Bhagirati rivers. These factors also caused hazardous flooding at the same time in the Ichamati and Bhagirati Rivers and their floodplains in the West Bengal province of India. To release the overflow of flood water inside India, the Indian border patrol breached the Ichamati river embankment in several places along Satkhira and Jessore international border which had aggravated the flood situation in the study area.     

黄河下游漫滩高含沙洪水滩槽界定及泥沙时空沉积特性

黄河下游漫滩高含沙洪水河床调整剧烈,多数断面洪水后形成"相对窄深河槽",洪水前后河槽宽度发生明显变化。分别以观测断面洪水前后的河槽宽度为基准,计算漫滩高含沙洪水期泥沙时空沉积分布,结果表明,漫滩高含沙洪水与非漫滩高含沙洪水相比,能将主河槽内淤积泥沙量的59.3%搬运至嫩滩或滩地,减缓主河槽淤积。在分析研究基础上,建立了洪水后漫滩河段河槽相对缩窄率与洪水前期河槽宽度的量化关系,洪水后主槽宽度缩窄率为15.5%~44.0%;分析遴选了漫滩高含沙洪水滩地淤积量与主要水力因子间关联度及物理含义,给出了漫滩高含沙洪水滩地淤积量与相应水力因子间的响应函数;初步提出漫滩洪水河道塑槽淤滩的临界水沙配置指标,临界水沙系数取值为0.025~0.040。成果对高含沙洪水调控具有一定的指导意义。     

Analysis of flood vulnerability and assessment of the impacts in coastal zones of Bangladesh due to potential sea-level rise

The 4th IPCC report highlights the increased vulnerability of the coastal areas from floods due to sea-level rise (SLR). The existing coastal flood control structures in Bangladesh are not adequate to adapt these changes and new measures are urgently necessary. It is important to determine the impacts of SLR on flooding to analyse the performance of the existing structures and corresponding impact to plan for suitable adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of floods on coastal zone. The study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the possible effects of SLR on floods in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. A hydrodynamic model, which is a combination of surface and river parts, was utilized for flood simulation. The tool was applied under a range of future scenarios, and results indicate both spatial variability of risk and changes in flood characteristics between now and under SLR. Estimated impact on population, infrastructure and transportation is also exposed. These types of impact estimation would be of value to flood plain management authorities to minimize the socio-economic impact.     

从2020年长江上游洪水看流域防洪对策

2020年长江上游和中下游先后发生特大洪水,其中干流编号洪水全部发生在上游,构成了长江流域洪水的主要部分。首先回顾2020年洪水及洪灾情况,然后根据历史上几次特大洪水过程和历年实测资料,分析长江上游洪水特征、洪灾类型及特点,最后提出新时代长江流域洪水整体防御战略及山洪灾害防治战术。研究表明:金沙江洪水是长江上游洪水基础部分,岷江、嘉陵江和干流区间是洪峰的主要来源,三者洪水遭遇是产生上游特大洪水的主因,上游洪水又是全流域特大洪水的基础和重要组成部分。目前造成洪灾死亡人数最多的是山洪以及山洪引起的地质灾害,财产损失最大的是中下游及湖泊地区。未来堤防仍然是防洪的基础,提高沿江城市防洪标准主要手段是控制性水库的联合优化调度,而减少洪涝灾害损失最有效的途径是给洪水以空间的自然解决方案等非工程措施。     

Groundwater arsenic contamination in Ganga–Meghna–Brahmaputra plain, its health effects and an approach for mitigation

The authors’ survey of the Ganga–Meghna–Brahmaputra (GMB) plain (area 569,749 km²; population >500 million) over the past 20 years and analysis of more than 220,000 hand tube-well water samples revealed groundwater arsenic contamination in the floodplains of the Ganga–Brahmaputra river (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Assam) in India and the Padma–Meghna–Brahmaputra river in Bangladesh. On average, 50 % of the water samples contain arsenic above the World Health Organization guideline value of 10 μg/L in India and Bangladesh. More than 100 million people in the GMB plain are potentially at risk. The authors’ medical team screened around 155,000 people from the affected villages and registered 16,000 patients with different types of arsenical skin lesions. Arsenic neuropathy and adverse pregnancy outcomes have been recorded. Infants and children drinking arsenic-contaminated water are believed to be at high risk. About 45,000 biological samples analyzed from arsenic-affected villages of the GMB plain revealed an elevated level of arsenic present in patients as well as non-patients, indicating that many are sub-clinically affected. In West Bengal and Bangladesh, there are huge surface water in rivers, wetlands, and flooded river basins. In the arsenic-affected GMB plain, the crisis is not over water scarcity but about managing the available water resources.     

Flood hazard in Hunan province of China: an economic loss analysis

Natural and man-made disasters have been increasing and affecting millions of people throughout the world. Floods are the most common natural disasters affecting more people across the globe than all other natural or technological disasters and also are the most costly in terms of human hardship and economic loss. In order to explore the total economic loss, components of economic loss, and factors influencing economic loss during flooding, a retrospective study was carried out in year 2000 in areas that suffered floods in 1998 in Hunan province, China. A total of 10,722 families were investigated using a multistage sampling method. We found that the total economic loss to the 10,722 families investigated was US$ 8.925 million; translating into an average economic loss of US$ 832.45 per family and US$ 216.75 per person. Economic loss related to property loss, income loss, and increased medical cost accounted for 57.38%, 40.00%, and 2.62% of the total economic loss, respectively. Economic loss was significantly related to a family’s pre-flood income; duration of the flood; severity of flood; and type of flood. River floods yielded the highest economic loss and drainage problem floods yielded the lowest loss. We recommended that flood-related preventive measures should focus on the prevention of river floods and shortening the duration of floods with the view of significantly minimizing economic losses associated with floods.