中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析(英文)

The aim of this study is to establish several important factors representing land use intensification in cultivated land(denoted by CII), using a multi-dimensional approach to achieve realistic and practical cultivated land use policies in China. For this reason, the theoretical framework was first built to explain the changes of land use intensification in the cultivated land, and then the variables and index were further developed for the purpose of characterizing the dynamic trends and driving forces of the land use intensification in the cultivated land at the provincial level. The study results indicate that the extent of CII significantly increased during the period of 1996 to 2008, due to the extensive use of fertilizers, machinery and pesticide, increased labor and capital input, and intensified land use. Moreover, the principal component regression results show that the productivity of cultivated land, economic benefits of cultivated land, labor productivity, and land use conversion are the main factors affecting the village development. The first three factors play a positive role, while the last one has a negative effect on the land use intensification in the cultivated land. According to these results, the main policies for sustainable intensification in cultivated land are proposed. First, the sustainable pathways for intensification should be adopted to reduce the unsustainable uses of chemical fertilizer, agricultural chemicals, etc. Second, the conditions for agricultural production should be further improved to increase the cultivated land productivity. Third, it is very necessary and helpful for improving labor productivity and land use efficiency from the viewpoint of accelerated the cultivated land circulation. The last step is to positively affect the production activities of peasants by means of reforming the subsidy standards.     

基于土地集约利用的长株潭城市群建设用地供需仿真模拟（英文）

Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016–2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.     

黄土高原多沙区环境因子对土地利用变化空间异质性的影响(英文)

In areas with topographic heterogeneity, land use change is spatially variable and influenced by climate, soil properties, and topography. To better understand this variability in the high-sediment region of the Loess Plateau in which soil loss is most severe and sediment diameter is larger than in other regions of the plateau, this study builds some indicators to identify the characteristics of land use change and then analyze the spatial variability as it is affected by climate, soil property, and topography. We build two indicators, a land use change intensity index and a vegetation change index, to characterize the intensity of land use change, and the degree of vegetation restoration, respectively. Based on a subsection mean method, the two indicators are then used to assess the spatial variability of land use change affected by climatic, edaphic, and topographic elements. The results indicate that: 1) Land use changed significantly in the period 1998–2010. The total area experiencing land use change was 42,302 km2, accounting for 22.57%of the study area. High-coverage grassland, other woodland, and forest increased significantly, while low-coverage grassland and farmland decreased in 2010 compared with 1998. 2) Land use change occurred primarily west of the Yellow River, between 35 and 38 degrees north latitude. The four transformation types, including(a) low-coverage grassland to medium-coverage grassland,(b) medium-coverage grassland to high-coverage grassland,(c) farmland to other woodland, and(d) farmland to medium-coverage grassland, were the primary types of land use change, together constituting 60% of the area experiencing land use change. 3) The spatial variability of land use change was significantly affected by properties of dryness/wetness, soil conditions and slope gradient. In general, land use changed dramatically in semi-arid regions, remained relativelystable in arid regions, changed significantly in clay-rich soil, remained relatively stable in clay-poor soil, changed dramatically in steeper slopes, and remained relatively stable in tablelands and low-lying regions. The increase in vegetation coincided with increasing changes in land use for each physical element. These findings allow for an evaluation of the effect of the Grain to Green Program, and are applicable to the design of soil and water conservation projects on the Loess Plateau of China.     

The effect of environmental factors on spatial variability in land use change in the high-sediment region of China’s Loess Plateau

In areas with topographic heterogeneity, land use change is spatially variable and influenced by climate, soil properties, and topography. To better understand this variability in the high-sediment region of the Loess Plateau in which soil loss is most severe and sediment diameter is larger than in other regions of the plateau, this study builds some indicators to identify the characteristics of land use change and then analyze the spatial variability as it is affected by climate, soil property, and topography. We build two indicators, a land use change intensity index and a vegetation change index, to characterize the intensity of land use change, and the degree of vegetation restoration, respectively. Based on a subsection mean method, the two indicators are then used to assess the spatial variability of land use change affected by climatic, edaphic, and topographic elements. The results indicate that： 1） Land use changed significantly in the period 1998-2010. The total area experiencing land use change was 42,302 km2, accounting for 22.57%of the study area. High-coverage grassland, other woodland, and forest increased significantly, while low-coverage grassland and farmland decreased in 2010 compared with 1998.2） Land use change occurred primarily west of the Yellow River, between 35 and 38 degrees north latitude. The four transformation types, including （a） low-coverage grassland to medium-coverage grassland, （b） medium-coverage grassland to high-coverage grassland, （c） farmland to other woodland, and （d） farmland to medium-coverage grassland, were the primary types of land use change, together constituting 60% of the area experiencing land use change. 3） The spatial variability of land use change was significantly affected by properties of dryness/wetness, soil conditions and slope gradient. In general, land use changed dramatically in semi-arid regions, remained relatively stable in arid regions, changed significantly in clay-rich soil, remained relatively stable in clay-poor soil, changed dramatically in steeper slopes, and remained relatively stable in tablelands and low-lying regions. The increase in vegetation coincided with increasing changes in land use for each physical element. These findings allow for an evaluation of the effect of the Grain to Green Program, and are applicable to the design of soil and water conservation projects on the Loess Plateau of China.     

Desertification Reversion in Relation to Land Use Change and Climate in Naiman County, Inner-Mongolia, China

Analyses of desertified land and land use change in Naiman County of Inner-Mongolia showed that there was a fluctuated in-crease of rain-fed cropland in the period from 1951 to 1960, then decreased until the middle of the 1990＇s, then increased again, while irrigated cropland consistently increased. The woodland and build-up land consistently increased while grassland area de-creased. The area of water body increased from 1975 to 1995 and then decreased while river beach decreased. Wetland change fluctuated with a maximum of 303.53km2 in 1995 and a minimum of 62.08 km2 in 2002. Invasion of cropland into river beach does not only change land coverage on the beach, but also the hydrological process of the river systems and deeply influence wa-ter availability. The correlation between cropland and underground water table is negative and significant. Increase of irrigated cropland is the primary cause of water availability reduction. Water table reduction is negatively correlated to cropland. The total desertified land has decreased since 1975. A rapid increase occurred before 1959, but it is difficult to assess the change of deserti-fication due to lack of data from 1959 to 1975. Changes of different types of desertified lands were different. There is no signifi-cant correlation between land use and different types of desertified land, but there is a significant negative correlation between woodland and total desertified land. The correlation between grassland and total desertified land is positive and significant. There is a significant correlation between different land cover and key factors such as water body and annual precipitation, river beach and runoff, area of shifting dune and annual precipitation, and cropland and underground water table. Desertification reversion in Naiman County is fragile and will be even much more fragile due to population growth, rapid land use and climate change. This will lead to continued invasion of irrigated cropland into more fragile ecosystems and reduction of water availability.     

干旱内陆河流域人居环境适宜性评价——以石羊河流域为例(英文)

The study employs slope,aspect,relief degree of land surface,land use,vegetation index,hydrology and climate,as evaluation indexes to set up the Human Settlements Environmental Index(HEI) model to evaluate the environmental suitability for human settlements in the Shiyang River Basin.By using GIS spatial analysis technology,such as spatial overlay analysis,buffer analysis and density analysis,the environmental suitability of the human settlement spatial situation and spatial pattern are established to analyze their spatial distribution.The results show that the index of suitability for human settlements in the Shiyang River Basin is between 17.13 and 84.32.In general,suitability for human settlements decreases from the southwest to the northeast.Seen from an area pattern,the suitable region is mainly distributed in the Minqin oasis,Wuwei oasis and Changning basin,which are about 1080.01 km 2 and account for 2.59% of the total area.Rather and comparatively suitable region is mainly distributed around the counties of Gulang,Yongchang and north of Tianzhu,which is about 1100.30 km 2.The common suitable region is mainly distributed outside the counties of Yongchang,Jinchuan and most parts of Minqin County,which are about 23328.04 km 2,accounting for 56.08% of the total area.The unsuitable region is mainly distributed upstream and to the north of the river,which is about 9937.60 km 2,accounting for 23.89% of the total area.Meanwhile,the least suitable region is distributed around the Qilian Mountains,which are covered by snow and cold desert and lie in the intersecting area between the Tengger Desert and Badain Jaran Desert.The total area is about 6154.05 km 2,accounting for 14.79% of the total area.Suitable regions for human habitation are mainly distributed around rivers in the form of ribbons and batches,while others are scattered.The distribution pattern is identical to the residential spatial pattern.In addition,the relationships between HEI and other factors have been analyzed.There is a clear logarithmic correlation between the residential environment and population,that is,the correlation coefficient between the evaluation value and population density reaches 0.851.There is also a positive correlation between the residential environment and economy,which reaches an evaluation value of 0.845 between the residential environment and GDP.Results also show that the environment is out of bearing with the existing population in Shiyang River Basin.Spatial distribution of population is profoundly affected by severe environmental problems,such as the expanded deserts,the hilly terrain and the changing climate.Surface water shortage and slow economic growth are bottlenecks for suitable human settlement in the Shiyang River Basin.Combining these problems with planning for construction of new country and the exploitation of local land,some residential areas should be relocated to improve the residential environment.     

1987-2007年土耳其伊斯坦布尔黑海沿岸土地利用变化(英文)

Recently,important land use changes have occurred in the Black Sea coastal regions of stanbul due to urban growth and population increases.The objective of this study was to determine changes in land use in the Black Sea coastal regions of stanbul between 1987 and 2007.Landsat 30 m satellite images from 1987 and 2007 are used in the study.The study area is 1000 m in width from the coastline to the land and the study has been carried out using the controlled classification method to classify areas into residential,agricultural,forest,bare land,brush/grassland,and lake/pond land classes.Land use changes between 1987 and 2007 were analysed in detail.Residential areas of the Black Sea coastal regions of stanbul increased by 122% over the two decades.Also an increase of 55% in agriculture areas was observed,while there were decreases of 26% in forest areas and 15% in free land.A 21% increase in the area of brush and grassland took place.Furthermore 79% of the study area was covered by residential areas in 2007.It is probable that pressure on the stanbul coastal regions will continue due to migraton and rapid urbanization.Therefore,Istanbul’s Black Sea coastal regions should be maintained using a sustainable coastal management plan.     

贵州猫跳河流域土地利用变化和土壤侵蚀(英文)

Due to the extremely poor soil cover, a low soil-forming rate, and inappropriate intensive land use, soil erosion is a serious problem in Guizhou Province, which is located in the centre of the karst areas of Southwest China. In order to bring soil erosion under control and restore environment, the Chinese Government has initiated a serious of ecological rehabilitation projects such as the Grain-for-Green Programme and Natural Forest Protection Program and brought about tremendous influences on land-use change and soil erosion in Guizhou Province. This paper explored the relationship between land use and soil erosion in the Maotiao River watershed, a typical agricultural area with severe soil erosion in central Guizhou Province. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamic change of land-use type in Maotiao River watershed from 1973 to 2007 using Landsat MSS image in 1973, Landsat TM data in 1990 and 2007. Soil erosion change characteristics from 1973 to 2007, and soil loss among different land-use types were examined by integrating the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a GIS environment. The results indicate that changes in land use within the watershed have significantly affected soil erosion. From 1973 to 1990, dry farmland and rocky desertified land significantly increased. In contrast, shrubby land, other forestland and grassland significantly decreased, which caused accelerated soil erosion in the study area. This trend was reversed from 1990 to 2007 with an increased area of land-use types for ecological use owing to the implementation of environmental protection programs. Soil erosion also significantly varied among land-use types. Erosion was most serious in dry farmland and the lightest in paddy field. Dry farmland with a gradient of 6°-25° was the major contributor to soil erosion, and conservation practices should be taken in these areas. The results of this study provide useful information for decision makers and planners to take sustainable land use management and soil conservation measures in the area.     

近两百年江苏省城乡建设用地数量估算与空间重建（英文）

Land cover is the most evident landscape signal to characterize the influence of human activities on terrestrial ecosystems.Since the industrial revolution,the expansion of construction land has profoundly changed the status of land use coverage and changes.This study is proposed to reconstruct the spatial pattern of construction land(urban construction land and rural settlement land)for five historical periods over the past 200 years in Jiangsu Province with 200 m′200 m grids on the basis of quantitative estimation.Urban construction land is estimated based on data about city walls,four gates along walls,and other socio-economic factors.Rural settlement land is calculated based on the rural population and per capita housing allowance.The spatial pattern of historical construction land is simulated based on the distribution of modern construction land in 1985 with a quantitative-boundarysuitability control method and thorough consideration over connectivity of different land use types.The study concludes that:(1)the amount of construction land in Jiangsu Province is estimated at 963.46 km~2 in 1820,1043.46 km~2 in 1911,1672.40 km~2 in 1936,1980.34 km~2 in1952 and 10,687.20 km~2 in 1985;and(2)the spatial distribution of construction land features the great proclivity to water bodies and main roads and the strong polarization of existent residence.The results are verified directly and indirectly by applying the trend verification of construction land changes and patterns,the correlation analysis between rural settlement land and local arable land,and quantitative accuracy test of the reconstructed construction land to actual historical survey maps covering four sample regions in 1936.     

环京津贫困带土地利用变化多情景模拟与景观格局动态变化——以河北省张家口市为例（英文）

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios–namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario–were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following:(1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989–2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989–2000 to 3.96% during 2000–2010.(2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989–2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland.(3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dra-matically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted.(4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed.(5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m×300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.     

An analysis of land use pattern in the industrial development city using high resolution satellite imagery

The spatial differentiation of land use changes of Tuticorin is studied using high resolution LISS III satellite imagery and Maximum Likelihood algorithms. The classification accuracy of 95.2% was obtained. In this study, the land use of Tuticorin is classified as settlement, salt pan, agricultural land, wasteland, water bodies and shrubs. The settlement area is increased to 4.6 km2 during the year 2001 and 2006. The settlement area change is mainly driven by growth of industries and migration of people from peripheral villages. Shrub is increased to 3.63 km2 in the six year period. Water logging due to growth of shrubs in Tuticorin leads to several environmental and health hazard. This study warrants proper urban planning for Tuticorin for sustainable use of resource and environment.     

Quantitative estimation and spatial reconstruction of urban and rural construction land in Jiangsu Province, 1820–1985

Land cover is the most evident landscape signal to characterize the influence of human activities on terrestrial ecosystems. Since the industrial revolution, the expansion of construction land has profoundly changed the status of land use coverage and changes. This study is proposed to reconstruct the spatial pattern of construction land (urban construction land and rural settlement land) for five historical periods over the past 200 years in Jiangsu Province with 200 m × 200 m grids on the basis of quantitative estimation. Urban construction land is estimated based on data about city walls, four gates along walls, and other socio-economic factors. Rural settlement land is calculated based on the rural population and per capita housing allowance. The spatial pattern of historical construction land is simulated based on the distribution of modern construction land in 1985 with a quantitative-boundarysuitability control method and thorough consideration over connectivity of different land use types. The study concludes that: (1) the amount of construction land in Jiangsu Province is estimated at 963.46 km² in 1820, 1043.46 km² in 1911, 1672.40 km² in 1936, 1980.34 km² in 1952 and 10,687.20 km² in 1985; and (2) the spatial distribution of construction land features the great proclivity to water bodies and main roads and the strong polarization of existent residence. The results are verified directly and indirectly by applying the trend verification of construction land changes and patterns, the correlation analysis between rural settlement land and local arable land, and quantitative accuracy test of the reconstructed construction land to actual historical survey maps covering four sample regions in 1936.     

Unplanned urban growth: land use/land cover change in the Guwahati Metropolitan Area,India

Unplanned urban growth, particularly in developing countries has led to changes in land use/land cover (LULC). Numerous Indian cities face problems of unplanned LULC change due to nominal or non-existent planning efforts compounded by rapid urban population growth. The Guwahati Metropolitan Area (GMA) is one such urban centre. The present study assesses the trajectories of LULC change using Landsat imageries acquired in 1976, 1989, 2002 and 2015. Natural and semi natural vegetated area and artificial and natural water bodies decreased while built-up areas, cultivated and managed areas, and natural and semi natural non-vegetated areas increased. The built-up area increased from 23.9 in 1976 to 115.1 km² in 2015 becoming the dominant land cover class accounting for 41.8% of the total geographical area. During this period, natural and semi natural vegetated land were reduced by 88.9 km² at an annual rate of 2.2 km². Over the years there was an increasing trend of built-up land and cultivated and managed areas in the peripheral areas of the city while natural and semi natural vegetated land diminished. Consequently, as in many other developing countries, there is an urgent need for the governmental authorities and other stakeholders to implement effective urban planning policies.     

1990—2010年黄河宁蒙段所处流域土地利用变化

以Landsat TM和ETM+遥感影像为基础数据源,应用地理信息系统技术,对黄河宁蒙段所处流域1990-2010年土地利用变化进行了监测,并结合气候变化、人类活动和政策因素探讨了土地利用变化的驱动力,初步分析了土地利用/覆被变化对流域水-沙关系的影响。结果表明：（1）20年来研究区建设用地面积增加了1 310.04 km²,耕地面积增加了611.15 km²,水域和草地面积分别减少了1 499.51 km²和474.93 km²;（2）20年来黄河宁蒙段所处流域土地利用变化速度经历了缓慢变化-显著变化-急剧变化的过程。各土地利用类型在后10 年（2000-2010年）的变化速度均比前10年（1990-2000年）大;（3）研究时段内草地和未利用地转化为林地,草地和耕地被开发为建设用地,未利用地和草地被开垦为耕地;（4）人类活动和政策因素是影响20年来土地利用变化的主要驱动因子,但人口数量的增加、经济的发展及环境政策的调整对研究区土地利用变化的影响更为显著;（5）1990-2010年流域耕地和林地面积分别增加了611.15 km²和543.19 km²,植被覆盖度由1990年的34.7%增加到2010年的40.8%。林地和耕地面积的增加均使得流域总蒸发量增加,灌溉用水增加,从而径流量减少,植被覆盖度的增加使得流域径流量和输沙量均降低。     

Assessment of sandy desertification trends in the Shule River Basin from 1978 to 2010

Sandy desertification in the Shule River Basin has expanded dramatically during the past 30 years. We evaluated the status, evolution, and main causes of sandy desertification by interpreting Landsat images which were acquired in 1978, 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010, and analyzing the relevant meteorological data. The results show there was 3,477.95 km2, 3,733.32 km2, 3,620.29 km2, 3,565.65 km2, and 3,557.88 km2 of sandy desertified land in 1978, 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively. From 1978 to 1990, not only the area of sandy desertified land （SDL） but also the degree of SDL levels increased. From 1990 to 2010 there was widespread restoration of SDL but the recovery trend of SDL gradually slowed. Although climate change contributes to expanding sandy desertification, human activities can either accelerate or reverse trends of natural sandy desertification. Some detrimental human activities can accelerate sandy desertification, but, conversely, desertification control measures such as the Three-North Shelter Forest Project and watershed rehabilitation programs in areas including the Shule River Basin resulted in many SDL being turned into grasslands or forest lands when shrubs and trees were planted to fix mobile sands at the edges of oases and cities. With population growth, much SDL has been reclaimed as farm land using water-saving agricultural methods or has been turned into built-up land as a result of urbanization.     

Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries (64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration. We apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30 (the world’s finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution), and develop three indicator groups (namely quantity, conversion, and utilization degree) for the analysis. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10⁴ km² between 2000 and 2010. The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China. Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Hungary (0.66×10⁴ km²) and India (0.57×104 km2). China decreased 1.95×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Bangladesh (–0.22×10⁴ km²) and Thailand (–0.22×10⁴ km²). Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land, and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics: while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces, considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia. The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe, while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries. Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic- focused studies, as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses. Nevertheless, the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China’ “Go Out policy” would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

The simulation of LUCC based on Logistic-CA-Markov model in Qilian Mountain area,China

The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km~2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km~2 from 2000 to 2014.(2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution(weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method.(3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years(2015–2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.     

Environmental changes,remote sensing,and infrastructure development: The case of Egypt's East Port Said harbour

Using Landsat TM data, this article examines the environmental impact of the East Port Said harbour project on the surrounding landscape. The optimum three-band combination and the most appropriate multispectral bands were selected to enhance the images and monitor land cover changes for the periods of 1984–1991 and 1991–2003. The results indicate that wetland areas declined from 103 km² in 1984 to 30 km² in 2003. In addition, the surface area of El-Malha Lake has shrunk from 27 km² to 18 km² over the same period. In contrast, the area covered by salt crust has increased from 11 km² in 1984 to 19 km² in 2003. Urban land use and designed cultivated lands were also significant in 2003, covering 49 km² and 71 km², respectively. The rate of shoreline change between 1984 and 2003, the period when the East Port Said harbour was constructed, was calculated. Vector data indicate that the rate of shoreline loss was ?13 m/year from 1984 to 1991 and ?15 m/year from 1991 to 2003. Despite the fact that construction of the East Port Said harbour caused significant changes in the study area, there are several factors controlling coastline and land cover changes including industrial development and fish cultivation farms.     

基于CA模型的旅游小镇增长的时空模拟与应用——以河北三坡镇为例

旅游小镇增长的时空模拟是城镇化影响下的土地利用/覆盖变化研究的重要手段。近年来旅游小镇的城镇化以其旅游业发展带动城镇发展的独特模式引起国内外学者的高度关注。论文以元胞自动机模型为基础,运用旅游小镇旅游城镇化增长模型,对河北省三坡镇的旅游城镇化发展进行模拟与预测。模拟结果显示:①2005-2010年研究区城镇增长主要围绕现有镇区范围扩展,全域年均增速为0.015 km²/年;②2010-2015年主要城镇增长区位于镇内距离景区较近的苟各庄村附近,全域年均增速为0.040 km²/年,其他区域则保持相对较为平稳的状态。研究表明元胞自动机模型在模拟旅游小镇演化具有较高的可靠性,为研究城镇化条件下区域生态景观格局变化提供前提保证,对于提高土地资源利用效率,保障小镇健康有序发展具有十分重要的意义。     

Time series assessment on landslide occurrences in an area undergoing development

This study assesses the influence of development on landslide occurrences in a rapidly developing area, Kota Kinabalu in Sabah Malaysia, across three assessment years (1978, 1994 and 2010). Two development indicators, land use and road density, were used to measure the influence of development on landslide occurrence. Land use was classified into four categories (barren, forest, developed and other), and road density was classified into low (< 50 m/40 000 m²), moderate (50–150 m/40 000 m²) and high (> 150 m/40 000 m²). Landslide density analysis was used to calculate the concentration of landslide for the different land use and road density categories. The number of landslides in developed areas increased from 19 landslides/100 km² in 1978, to 29 landslides/100 km² in 1994 and to 50 landslides/100 km² in 2010, mirroring an increase in land use for development purposes from 8 per cent in 1978 to 27 per cent in 2010. Landslide density also gradually increased in the high road density class from 10 landslides/100 km² in 1978, to 30 landslides/100 km² in 1994 and 62 landslides/100 km² in 2010. These results show that road construction activities influence landslide occurrences.