地壳形变与地震前兆探索回顾和展望

本文回顾了我国地震预报中地壳形变观测技术、 数据处理方法和软件及地壳形变前兆观测研究进展。 1966年邢台地震后, 我国地震预报工作经历了难得的成功、 更多惨痛失败和“地震不可预报论”等干扰, 发展曲折。 尽管2008年汶川和2011年东日本大地震预报失败,但这两次和其他大地震前后GPS和其他观测得到的地壳形变表明, 大地震是有前兆的, 是可以预报的。 比较了我国地震预报所采用的主要的地形变观测技术和分析方法, 讨论了观测和数据处理方法的特点, 简要介绍了地壳形变地震前兆新近的研究结果, 重点阐述了GPS观测技术多方面的优势。 事实证明, GPS观测得到的汶川大地震前的形变异常或前兆, 是我国地壳形变观测与地震前兆探索最突出的成果。     

基于高频GNSS的2014年于田MS7.3级地震的同震位移研究

After the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,the authors instantly collected 1Hz high frequency data of the 4 reference stations within 350 km around the epicenter,and calculated the GNSS data with the TRACK module. The results showed that:( 1) The co-seismic displacement of Yutian station,about 54 km from the epicenter,is the most obvious,particularly in the EW component,with a change of about 52.5 ± 11mm,which is more than three times the mean-square error of calculating precision.( 2) In the Yutian reference station,the biggest variation in the EW component appeared within 1 minute after the earthquake.( 3) The change in the NS component is not great.     

Damage of 1975 Haicheng Ms7.3 earthquake in the Korean Peninsula and its effect on Kyushu, Japan

The 1975 Haicheng MS7.3 earthquake affected whole Korean Peninsula and even Kyushu,Japan.In this paperisoseismal map of this earthquake was drawn for these areas by sorting out and analyzing data systematically col-lected,furthermore,the characteristics of the earthquake damage were discussed.In the northern Korean Peninsula,the intensity is V in great majority of this area except local area with intensity VI,and the damage is basically inaccordance with typical characteristics of corresponding intensity grade.In the southern Korean Peninsula,theintensity is IV in large part of the area,however,in some big cities such as Seoul etc.,not only high buildingsshook strongly,but also some people appeared perceptions such as feeling dizzy and so on,and electrical servicewas interrupted on one or two districts because of transformer tripping.These phenomena could be caused by theeffect of long-period wave generated from a large earthquake on far-field.     

中国大陆GPS连续观测站测得的日本9.0级地震同震位移与震前变化

利用中国大陆GPS连续观测站资料, 获取了2011年3月11日日本9.0级地震造成的连续站同震位移。 计算结果表明, 位于我国东部尤其是东北地区的台站在水平方向都有明显的同震位移, 且离震中越近同震位移量越大, 其中绥阳站的水平同震位移量最大, 达到33 mm。 通过对时间序列分析发现, 有明显同震位移的连续站, 震前水平方向的运动速度都有放缓的趋势, 可能是一种形变前兆现象。 这些GPS观测到的同震位移及震前运动速度异常, 对于进一步研究前兆地壳运动、 地震动力学特征以及精化中国大陆地壳运动速度场都有重要意义。     

高频GPS形变波与地震波在日本MW9.0地震中的对比研究

高频GPS动态监测可快速准实时解算地表位移,其在地震参数快速确定、地壳形变短期变化过程、震源破裂过程和震级标度研究等方面成为传统地震学的补充。针对浙江省内的1Hz的GPS数据,本文采用GAMIT的TRACK模块,获得了日本2011年3月11日M_W9.0地震的位移时间序列,并将其与浙江省地震台网并址观测的地震计获得的位移信号进行对比。结果显示,高频GPS与地震计获得的峰值地动位移之间差异在GPS的观测误差范围内。相对于原始波形,两者在0.005～0.1Hz频段上的水平方向相关系数提高了50%以上,高程方向相关系数提高了2倍以上。研究表明,高频GPS与宽频带地震计的观测结果在时序和频谱上有相互重合的区域,GPS和地震仪可以共同覆盖地震地表位移的全部可能范围。     

日本兵库县南部地震调查与中国唐山大地震的比较

叙述了１９９５年１月日本兵库县南部地震的强地面运动特征，并与１９７６年中国唐山地震的地面运动特征进行了对比，讨论了日本地震后次生灾害——火灾的残酷性，并分析了该次地震的前兆现象     

2016年阿克陶MW6.6地震的同震断层滑动分布及库伦应力变化

2016年11月25日新疆阿克陶地区发生的M_W6.6地震,对当地人民生命造成一定的危害。基于Sentinel-1数据获取该地震的视线向同震形变场,采用贝叶斯方法反演单一断层走向为106.9°、倾角为73.8°、震源深度为17.35 km,在此断层几何模型基础上,以最速下降梯度法（Steepest Descent Method,SDM）反演滑动分布,结果表明断层面上存在两个滑动峰值,其中位于断层西侧的最大滑动量为0.66 m,深度为11.7 km,位于断层东侧的最大滑动量为0.83 m,深度为7.5 km,根据反演结果模拟LOS形变,其最大残差为~5 cm。构建倾角分别为70.79°和55.33°的双断层几何模型,并根据双断层几何模型反演了滑动分布,结果表明单一断层模型与双断层模型的滑动分布具有一致性,但是最大滑动量值有所不同,相对于单一断层模型的滑动分布而言,双断层模型的滑动量在西侧增大,其值为0.68 m;而在东侧减小,其值为0.77 m;最大残差降低了约2 cm。双断层模型库伦应力增加区域与余震的分布比较吻合。     

Review of the Research of the 2011 MW9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

On March 11, 2011, a M_W9.0 earthquake occurred in the Japan Trench, causing tremendous casualties, and attracting extensive concern. Based on the results of related research, this paper analyzes the observations, phenomena and understandings of the earthquake from varied aspects, and obtains four main conclusions. (1) The earthquake, occurring in the subduction zone in the Japan Trench located in the northwest boundary of the pacific plate has two zones of concentrated coseismic slip at different depths, and the slip in the deep zone is relatively small. Though there have been many M7.0 historical earthquakes, slips in the shallow zone are large, but there have been few historical strong earthquakes. (2) Constrained by GPS data, the study of fault movement shows that fault movement in the Japan Trench has a background of widely distributed stability and locking (the locking zone is equivalent that of coseismic rupture zone). Perturbation occurred after the 2008 M8.0 Hokkaido earthquake, several M7.0 events had after slips larger than the coseismic slip, and two obvious slow slip events were recorded in 2008 and 2011. Eventually, the March 9, 2011 M7.0 foreshock and the March 11, 2011 M_W9.0 mainshock occurred. The pre-earthquake changing of the fault movement in the Japan Trench is quite clear. (3) Traditional precursory observation show no obvious anomaly, possibly due to monitoring reason. Anomaly before earthquake consists of high stress state in focal zone reflected by some seismic activity parameters, short period anomaly in regional ground motion, etc. (4) The analysis of physical property in focal zone aroused more scientific issues, for example, is there obvious difference between physical property in focal zone and its vicinity? Does frictional property of fault determine seismogenic ability and rupture process? Whether pre-earthquake fault movement include pre-slips? Could deep fluid affect fault movement in focal zone? Experience is the best teacher, and authors hope this paper could be a modest spur to induce others in basic research in earthquake forecast and prediction.     

Discussion on the Seismic Intensity of the Hutubi MS6.2 Earthquake on December 8, 2016

Based on the field investigation of 182 seismic hazard survey sites,combined with analysis of the aftershock sequence, focal mechanism, and seismo-tectonic background, we produced the seismic intensity map of the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake. The seismic intensity of the magistoseismic area is degree Ⅷ,with the orientation of long axis of isoseismic contour lines east-west. The Qingshuihezi fault is considered as the seismogenic fault of Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake     

基于高分卫星遥感影像的地震应急滑坡编目与分布特征探讨——以2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震为例

地震应急是减轻地震灾害的重要途径之一。地震应急工作具有时间紧迫、事关重大的特点。2017年8月8日四川九寨沟M_S7.0级地震发生后,为快速、准确地提供地震引发的滑坡灾害分布,本研究基于震后第一天获取到的高分辨率遥感影像（高分二号卫星影像、北京二号卫星影像）,通过人工目视解译的方法初步建立了四川九寨沟地震滑坡编目。结果表明,该地震至少触发了622处同震滑坡,分布在沿使用影像边界框定的面积为3919km2的区域内。本研究还利用这个地震滑坡编目,统计了九寨沟地震滑坡数量和滑坡点密度（LND）与地形（坡度、坡向）、地震（地震烈度、震中距）等因素的关系。结果表明九寨沟地震滑坡多发生在坡度为20°—50°的区域内,滑坡的易发性随着坡度的增加而增加。受地震波传播方向的影响,E、SE向是地震滑坡较易发生的坡向。滑坡的易发程度和地震烈度呈正相关,即随着烈度的增大,滑坡易发性增大。滑坡易发性还随着震中距增加而降低,这是由于地震波能量随震中距的增加而衰减导致的。     

Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the September 16th, 2019 Zhangye MS5.0 Earthquake, Gansu, China

To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides, the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017, indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EW-direction linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017, and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake, indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake.     

云南地区水位、水温对尼泊尔Ms8.1地震的响应特征研究

通过统计2015年4月25日尼泊尔MS8.1地震和5月12日MS7.5余震发生时云南地区水位、水温的空间分布、异常形态、变化幅度、起始和结束时间等远场响应特征,分析认为:同震响应主要集中在川滇菱形块体东南部、滇缅弧形块体东部和小滇西一带,即云南地区中西部;同井观测的水位、水温同震响应异常形态多样,单井同测项的同震响应异常形态具有一致性,与地震震级、震中距、方位无关;观测井的记震能力与观测仪器的分辨率、井孔含水层条件等有关,同震响应的异常幅度(ΔH、ΔT)与震级(M)、震中距(D)之间有一定的数量关系;近来云南区域地震活动整体呈现"平静—活动—平静"特征,小震活动有丛集特点,未来一段时间需注意滇西—滇西北和滇西南地区中强地震的危险性。     

新西兰2016年凯库拉MW7.8地震灾害考察与启示

在2016年新西兰凯库拉M_W 7.8地震中,北东—北东东向科科仁古断裂水平右旋位移量最大,为10—12m;北北西—近南北向帕帕提断裂垂直位移量最大,达到5—6m。对直接坐落在这2条地震地表破裂带或变形带之上的建筑物的破坏现场调查表明,尽管房屋出现歪斜,但上部主体部分基本完整,没有出现倒塌或部分倒塌现象,避免了人员伤亡。在无法回避活动断裂及其大震危险性的情况下,隔震系统的广泛采用可以有效地提高建筑物抵御地震灾害的能力。此次地震触发了数万个滑坡体,最大滑坡体可达数百万立方米。对沃罗村北边2处边坡失稳地带的考察结果表明,针对该地至少从2个方面进行了考虑和处置:一是在选址上,避开了突出山嘴等高陡坡地带;二是在房屋正对的山坡地带,种植或保护了茂密的树木,这既增加了山体的稳定性,又可以在地震中有效地减缓崩塌的石块对房屋的冲击。对比中国中东部一些大震,如1976年唐山7.8级地震和2008年汶川8.0级地震中触目惊心的巨大人员伤亡和财产损失,即使在人口密度与滑坡规模上存在明显不同,对新西兰凯库拉地震灾害现场的考察结果,还是在如何有效抵御地震灾害方面给我们提供了很好的启示。     

2016年12月8日新疆呼图壁MS6.2地震烈度分布初探

根据182个烈度调查点的结果,结合余震序列分布、震源机制解和地震构造分析,编制呼图壁M_S 6.2地震烈度图。极震区烈度为Ⅷ度,等震线长轴走向为EW向,发震构造为清水河子断裂。     

2022年门源MS6.9和2016年门源MS6.4地震序列比较分析

2022年1月8日青海省海北州门源县发生M_S6.9地震,震中距离2016年1月21日门源M_S6.4地震震中约33km,两次门源地震均发生在冷龙岭断裂附近,但在震源机制、主发震断层破裂过程及地震序列余震活动等方面显著不同。针对两次门源地震序列的比较分析,对研究冷龙岭断裂及其附近区域强震序列和余震衰减特征等具有重要研究意义。通过对比分析2022年门源M_S6.9地震和2016年门源M_S6.4地震余震的时空演化特征,发现二者在震源过程和断层破裂尺度上存在明显差异,前者发震断层破裂充分,震后能量释放充分,余震丰富且震级偏高;而后者发震断层未破裂至地表,余震震级水平偏低。综合分析两次门源地震序列表现出来的差异性,认为其可能与地震发震断层的破裂过程密切相关,且同时受到区域构造环境的影响。     

基于ShakeMap_CNST的2017年精河6.6级地震灾害快速评估

基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型,结合震害预测方法,研发了一套震害预测系统,并以2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震的震害预测为例,将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明,采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计,在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面,相对于其他系统,本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。     

2021年青海玛多MS7.4地震同震应力场与形变台站同震阶变分布关系探讨

利用基于升、降轨InSAR形变场及余震精定位结果反演得到的同震滑动模型,通过PSGRN/PSCMP程序获得同震水平形变场及应力场分布特征,结合玛多M_S7.4地震周边形变同震阶变台站分布特征,探讨同震应力场变化与同震阶变台站分布间的关系。模拟得到的水平形变场结果显示,此次玛多地震为左旋走滑运动特征,水平形变量主要集中在巴颜喀拉块体内,其次是北部的柴达木块体;羌塘块体以及祁连块体同震水平位移量较小;昆仑山口-江错断裂作为一条NE倾向的走滑型断裂,断层上盘区域滑动量明显大于下盘,模拟得到的最大水平形变量达1380mm;形变同震阶变的台站主要集中分布在祁连山断裂带中东段以及西秦岭等地区,祁连山断裂带中东段位于此次玛多地震同震正应力变化正值区域,而西秦岭等地区则处于玛多地震同震剪切应力变化的正值区域,即出现同震阶变的台站与同震应力场变化的正值区域具有较好的一致性。     

基于GPS的精河M_S6.6地震前地壳变形动态特征研究

利用2013~2017年3期GPS观测资料,获得精河6.6级地震前震中附近区域水平运动速率、主应变率、面膨胀率及最大剪应变率,并结合区域构造背景分析该区域变形动态特征。结果表明:震前震中附近区域速度场速率逐渐增大,发震断裂两盘构造运动速率不均,震中附近区域GPS测点的速率和运动方向存在差异,反应了地壳应变能量积累。震中区域主压应变率变化反映出应力调整过程,沿断层走向的张压转换的形变高梯度带、最大剪应变梯度带可为地震预测提供参考。     

2022年1月8日青海门源6.9级地震前临震微波动现象初步研究

利用国家测震台网观测资料,对2022年1月8日青海门源6.9级地震震中距200km以内的19个台站自2021年记录到的临震微波动事件进行分析,发现震中距103km的祁连台在震前3个月存在显著异常,临震微波动事件的活动度(N值)高达20;震中距158km的拉脊山台同样出现活动度高值异常,达到异常指标;震中124km的湟源台长期处于异常状态,但在震前3～4个月表现为明显高于背景值的高值异常。其他台站虽然未达到异常指标,但震前3个多月活跃天数显著增加。异常显著的台站与震中位置呈线性分布,震中NW—SE方向的台站记录的事件更显著;本次地震前的微波动现象与2021年玛多7.4级地震前的微波动现象存在共同特征,可能与两次地震相似的震源机制解有关。     

A Preliminary Analysis of the Seismogenic Structure of the Akto MS6.7 Earthquake Sequence on November 25, 2016

In this study,data from the Xinjiang regional network and IRIS shared global stations are used to relocate the Akto M_S6. 7 earthquake sequence on November 25,2016 by using double difference location method. Three earthquakes of M_S4. 8,M_S6. 7 and M_S5. 0 are inverted by using the g CAP method,and the focal mechanism solutions are obtained.According to the results of relocating,the location of the main shock is 39. 22°N,73. 98°E,the distribution of the earthquake sequence is about 70 km in length,and the focal depth is mainly within the range of 5-20 km. The plane and depth profiles of the earthquake sequence show that aftershocks extended in SEE direction after the main shock and the dip angle of fault plane is steep. Focal mechanism results show that the three earthquakes are characterized by strike-slip movement. Based on the results of field geological investigation,it is inferred that the seismogenic fault of the Akto earthquake is Muji fault,which is located at the northernmost end of the Kongur extensional system.The possible cause of this earthquake is that the Indian Plate continues to push northward,and during this compression process,the Indian Plate is affected by the clockwise rotation of the Tarim basin,which causes the accumulation of right-lateral action of the Muji fault,resulting in this earthquake.