Global warming estimates,media expectations,and the asymmetry of scientific challenge

Mass media in the U.S. continue to suggest that scientific consensus estimates of global climate disruption, such as those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are “exaggerated” and overly pessimistic. By contrast, work on the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge (ASC) suggests that such consensus assessments are likely to understate climate disruptions. This paper offers an initial test of the competing expectations, making use of the tendency for science to be self-correcting, over time. Rather than relying in any way on the IPCC process, the paper draws evidence about emerging science from four newspapers that have been found in past work to be biased against reporting IPCC findings, consistently reporting instead that scientific findings are “in dispute.” The analysis considers two time periods — one during the time when the papers were found to be overstating challenges to then-prevailing scientific consensus, and the other focusing on 2008, after the IPCC and former Vice-President Gore shared the Nobel Prize for their work on climate disruption, and before opinion polls showed the U.S. public to be growing more skeptical toward climate science once again. During both periods, new scientific findings were more than twenty times as likely to support the ASC perspective than the usual framing of the issue in the U.S. mass media. The findings indicate that supposed challenges to the scientific consensus on global warming need to be subjected to greater scrutiny, as well as showing that, if reporters wish to discuss “both sides” of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate “other side” is that, if anything, global climate disruption may prove to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date.     

季节性流感的多元激发理论及其包含气象和社会行为因素的数学模型

为了解流感的季节性和爆发的生物力学机制,在收集、分析、计算全球各地流感监测资料的基础上,建立了流感传播的多元激发理论及相应的数值模式,并运用该模式对全球各大洲不同气候带的季节性流感和周际流感进行了数值模拟和预报尝试。模式近似解的数学表达式以及模式输出与实况高度吻合的模拟结果证明：流感的发病率呈高度自相关,同时受生物、气象环境和社会-行为因素支配;流感的爆发是各种因素协同作用的结果。动力共振、太阳辐射、降水、露点温度变化、行为和干预效应以及人群对优势流行毒株的免疫力是支配流感季节性和每周活动变化的关键因素。具体表现为,对于所有气候区,流感发病率都是降水日数的指数函数,日照时数的1/4次方的负指数函数。在温带和寒带地区,季节性流感的发病率是露点温度的负指数函数。在热带地区,则是露点与其年平均值绝对偏差的指数函数。研究提示：早期干预(例如适时和广泛接种疫苗、迅速隔离病例、停学、遏制早期病例总数等)是控制和预防季节性流感的关键;适量的日光照射或在雨季和日照短的季节补充维生素D、增加户外活动、发布高危天气预警、设定适中的室内露点温度是值得高度重视的预防策略。模式的模拟结果在很大程度上揭示了流感季节性的机理和证明了著名医学家和诺贝尔奖获得者RobeRt EdgaR Hope-Simpson在上世纪提出的流感季节性成因的猜想。模拟结果还表明,模式对每周流感发病率具有一定的预报能力。该理论和模型很可能适用于当前的甲型流感大流行和其它传染性疾病,可被进一步开发应用。     

Comparison of Winter Precipitation Measurements by Six Tretyakov Gauges at the Valdai Experimental Site

Analyses of long-term (1991–2010) intercomparison data quantify the consistency of winter precipitation observations by six identical Tretyakov gauges at the Valdai research station in Russia. Relative to the standard Tretyakov gauge, the mean catch ratios are 97 to 106% for dry snow, 94 to 104% for wet snow, 87 to 109% for blowing snow, 96 to 103% for mixed precipitation, and 98 to 101% for winter rain. The differences between the highest and lowest mean catches are about 10 to 11% for snow, 7% for mixed precipitation, and 3% for rain. On average, this difference is about 0.2?mm over the 12-hour observation period. The catch difference for blowing snow is much higher, up to 22%, or an average of 0.6?mm per observation. Comparisons of 12-hour observations show better consistency in gauge performance for low snowfall events and a large variation in gauge catch for high snowfall events. The differences in 12-hour snow catches are mostly less than 2?mm among the six gauges. The differences in the 12-hour observations are less than 1% for rain and 4% for mixed precipitation. Close linear relationships exist between the 12-hour gauge observations for all precipitation types. The maximum differences in gauge snow catches increase very weakly with wind speed, and higher differences are associated with warmer temperatures, from ?5°C to 0°C. There is, however, no significant relationship between the maximum catch difference and the mean wind speed or temperature over the 12-hour period.     

Study on Probability Distributions of Multi-Timescale Aerosol Optical Depth Using AERONET Data

The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the best-fit probability density function (PDF),and the statement that the fitting Weibull distribution will be light-tailed is proved true for these AOD samples.The best-fit PDF results for multi-site data show that the PDF of AOD samples with longer timescale in most sites tends to be stably represented by lognormal distribution,while Weibull distribution is a better fit for AOD samples with short timescales.The reason for this difference is ana-lyzed through tail characteristics of the two distributions,and an indicator for the selection between Weibull and lognormal distributions is suggested and validated.The result of this research is helpful for determining the most accurate AOD statistics for a given site and a given time-scale and for validating the retrieved AOD through its PDF.     

IMPLICIT NONLINEAR NORMAL MODE INITIALIZATION:A MULTIGRID APPROACH

The implicit nonlinear normal mode initialization (INMI) is applied to a tropical limited area shallow water modelin spherical coordinates.The boundary condition for the INMI scheme is based on the boundary formulation of themodel.The INMI scheme is found to be very efficient in suppressing spurious gravity wave oscillation and providing awell balanced initial data set for the model.The INMI scheme involves solving a number of elliptic type equations withvarying complexity.and hence an efficient numerical technique is required for solving such equations.In order to makeINMI computationally more attractive,we are employing the multigrid method for solving all the elliptic type equationsin the INMI scheme.The numerical procedures for the development of such multigrid solvers are briefly described.     

合肥上空卷云和沙尘气溶胶退偏振比的激光雷达探测

研制了一台L300偏振激光雷达,用于卷云和沙尘气溶胶后向散射光退偏振比的探测研究.介绍了偏振激光雷达的探测原理,叙述了L300偏振激光雷达的结构、技术参数、测量方法和数据处理方法.初步的探测结果表明,合肥西郊上空高度在10 km左右的卷云的退偏振比在0.4～0.5之间,沙尘气溶胶的退偏振比在0.2～0.3范围内,但是剧烈沙尘暴的气溶胶的退偏振比可达到0.4左右.     

Discussion and Applications of Slab Models of the Convective Boundary Layer based on Turbulent Kinetic Energy Budget Parameterisations

Some of the most widely used slab model formulations for applications in the convective boundary layer are analysed and discussed. Three main classes are identified based on different approximations of the turbulent kinetic energy equation. The models appear to be quite insensitive to the initial values for boundary-layer height, and temperature discontinuity at the boundary-layer top. The slab models are applied to a case of sea-land transition from the literature, and a case of convective boundary layer time evolution over a homogeneous terrain at San Pietro Capofiume (Bologna, Italy). The different parameterisations turn out to be almost equivalent for the cases studied. The models generally underpredict the value for the height, while all give very good estimates for the mean mixed-layer temperature.     

Mixing heights and ventilation coefficients for urban centres in India

Monthly mean afternoon (maximum) and early morning (minimum) mixing heights have been calculated for the winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons for eleven stations in India, with the assumption of a dry adiabatic lapse rate in the mixing layer. The morning mixing heights have been calculated by adding +5 °C to the surface minimum temperature except for the monsoon season for which a value of +3 °C has been utilized to account for the urban heat island effect. The spatial variation of mean maximum mixing heights over India has also been studied by isopleth analysis. The morning and afternoon ventilation coefficients have been calculated for the eleven stations under consideration. The spatial distribution of afternoon ventilation coefficients has also been studied. The optimum siting industries to minimize our pollution has been discussed.     

IMPLICIT NONLINEAR NORMAL MODE INITIALIZATION: A MULTIGRID APPROACH

The implicit nonlinear normal mode initialization (INMI) is applied to a tropical limited area shallow water model in spherical coordinates.The boundary condition for the INMI scheme is based on the boundary formulation of the model.The INMI scheme is found to be very efficient in suppressing spurious gravity wave oscillation and providing a well balanced initial data set for the model.The INMI scheme involves solving a number of elliptic type equations with varying complexity.and hence an efficient numerical technique is required for solving such equations.In order to make INMI computationally more attractive,we are employing the multigrid method for solving all the elliptic type equations in the INMI scheme.The numerical procedures for the development of such multigrid solvers are briefly described.     

Frequency of quasi-geostrophic modes on hexagonal grids

Summary Finite-difference analysis of Rossby modes has been performed for two staggered hexagonal grids. The solutions are compared with those obtained in analytical case and for rectangular grids. The result for one of the selected hexagonal grids better fits to the analytical solution then the results for the other considered grids. The obtained results may contribute to better understanding of the appropriateness of hexagonal grids in atmospheric and oceanographic modeling and numerical computations.With 6 Figures     

基于ZigBee与GPRS的低压多回路综合监测系统设计

设计了一种低压多回路综合监测系统,它包括用于采集现场数据的传感器以及具有ZigBee通信功能的数据采集节点.数据采集节点能够通过传感器获取现场数据信息.数据采集节点通过ZigBee通信网络与数据网关连接,数据网关通过数据线与便携PC连接,便携PC能够对获取的数据信息进行存储和处理.该系统有如下优点：可同时对多个回路的电参量和开关状态实时监测,方便对电网潜在问题进行分析排查,具有很好的可靠性和实时性,具有很强的便携性,下层数据采集网络采用ZigBee架构,采集点数量多,可轻松增加节点数量,无需布线,便于现场多回路监测装置的快速部署搭建.     

International reductions of greenhouse-gas emissions: An equitable and efficient approach

A strategy for a successful climate protection convention must highlight the role of equity in order to bring more nations to the bargaining table. The authors propose two commercial energy protocols for consideration by negotiators in this light. The first links international trading in greenhouse-gas emission ‘rights’ to a country's historical per capita carbon emissions. The charge for these rights should be based on the negotiated reduction in global emissions and the demand for them, via the marketplace. The second requires inefficient countries to make steady improvements in energy efficiency or fuel substitution away from carbon as their economies develop.     

我国主要水稻雄性不育系的光温特性研究

根据10个水稻雄性不育系的生育期及期间的温度和日长资料，研究了它们的光、温生态特性。用通径分析方法，分析了决定各不育系生育期变化的决策变量结果表明：晚籼及晚粳类型不育系的感光性强，中籼类型不育系的感光性弱到中等，早籼类型不育系的感光性一般都弱。10个雄性不育系中感温性弱的只占少数，感温性属弱到中强的品种占多数。除HS-3和SE21S的生育期决策变量为日长外，其他各不育系的决策变量均为温度。     

斜压气流的中尺度稳定性 Ⅰ.对称不稳定

本文是“斜压气流的中尺度稳定性”的第一部份,讨论斜压基流对平行型中尺度扰动的稳定性,寻找弱稳定层结大气中出现带状中尺度扰动的可能性及其对深厚对流云系的启动和组织作用。 用非弹性近似(anelastic assumption),导出适于用广义矩阵法及打靶法解特征值问题的理想大气扰动方程,并在线性风,双曲正切型风及飑线发生前的实测风分布下,计算出中尺度不稳定谱及特征扰动结构,通过能量分析,说明斜压性在产生这种非地转惯性对流中的作用。     

数值积分过程中截断误差和舍入误差的分离方法及其效果检验

本文讨论数值积分过程中截断误差和舍入误差的分离方法和理论,解析地给出某些数值计算方法的理论截断误差,并以此来分离计算结果中的误差.然后引入参考解的办法,用来分离更为一般的微分方程求解过程中的截断误差和舍入误差.以参考解算法为基础,对一个偏微分方程的数值解进行计算,所得结果与采用理论截断误差得到的结果进行了对比,发现:(...     

Intercomparison of Oceansat-2 and ASCAT Winds with In Situ Buoy Observations and Short-Term Numerical Forecasts

Sea surface winds from the Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) are important inputs to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) recently updated the OSCAT retrieval algorithm in order to generate better products. An attempt has been made in this study to evaluate the updated OSCAT winds using buoy observations and the 6-hour short-term forecasts from the T574L64 model from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) during the 2011 monsoon. The results of the OSCAT evaluation are also compared with those from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on-board the Meteorological Operational Satellite-A (MetOp-A) which were evaluated in the same way. The root mean square differences (RMSDs) for wind speed and direction, are within 2?m?s^?1 and 20° for both scatterometers. The RMSDs for OSCAT are slightly higher than those for ASCAT, and this difference may be attributed in part to the difference in frequency and resolution of the scatterometer payloads. The bias and standard deviation for ASCAT winds are also lower than those for OSCAT winds with respect to the model short-range forecast, and this can be attributed to the regular assimilation of ASCAT winds in the model.     

Calibration and performance evaluation of a lightweight propellor anemometer for micrometeorological research

The results of calibrations of the airspeed measurement, distance constant and cosine response for a sensitive propellor (vane) anemometer are described. A triad of these anemometers may be used to measure wind velocity, and the estimated uncertainty in this measurement is evaluated for a typical triad and a range of wind directions.The propellor anemometers tested provide sensitivity similar to that of sonic anemometers for research, but at much lower cost (although for a narrower range of wind conditions). Large arrays of the anemometers allow the spatial and temporal structure of wind turbulence to be measured directly. The anemometers have been used for several years, and are robust enough for micrometeorological research.     

应用Kriging算法实现气象资料空间内插

使用Kriging算法对海平面气压和气温等气象观测资料进行空间内插，实现数据网格化。通过GRADS绘制等值线图与人工分析的天气图以及Surfer软件的Kriging方案的结果进行对比，并对比分析多个统计量，验证自制软件结果的好坏。结果表明：对于气象物理量场，变异函数应采用球面模型；对量级较大的海平面气压值应进行缩小化处理；对于常规观测资料，球面模型半径应取10个经纬距以上。     

利用VB控件监视与管理时间服务器

在极轨气象卫星数据接收系统中,时间统一性对气象卫星资料接收质量有着重要影响。因此需要时间服务器为系统提供统一的时间基准,从而保证卫星资料的完整按时接收。由于GPS时钟具有稳定、准确的特点,将其作为时间服务器的信号源。为了保证GPS时间服务器正常工作,有必要对其进行状态监视。在VB60环境下,利用串口通信成功实现了对时间服务器的监视、管理功能。监视功能为时间服务器故障的发现、定位与记录提供了重要依据。管理功能包括参数查询、功能设置等,方便用户对时间服务器的操作。     

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area’s historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area’s climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.