Contributions of Fuqing ZHANG to Predictability,Data Assimilation,and Dynamics of High Impact Weather: A Tribute

This article reviews Fuqing ZHANG’s contributions to mesoscale atmospheric science,from research to mentoring to academic service,over his 20-year career.His fundamental scientific contributions on predictability,data assimilation,and dynamics of high impact weather,especially gravity waves and tropical cyclones,are highlighted.His extremely generous efforts to efficiently transmit to the community new scientific knowledge and ideas through mentoring,interacting,workshop organizing,and reviewing are summarized.Special appreciation is given to his tremendous contributions to the development of mesoscale meteorology in China and the education of Chinese graduate students and young scientists.     

MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM. Ⅱ： Influence of Change of Land Area,Vegetation, and Large-scale Circulation Background

Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative LGM climate response to changes of land-sea distribution, vegetation, and large-scale circulation background over China. Model results show that compared with the present climate, the fluctuations of sea-land distribution in eastern Asia during the LGM result in the temperature decrease in winter and increase in summer. It has significant impact on the temperature and precipitation in the east coastal region of China. The impact on precipitation in the east coastal region of China is the most significant one, with 25%-50% decrease in the total precipitation change during the LGM. On the other hand, the changes in sea-land distribution have less influence on the climate of inland and western part of China. During the LGM, significant changes in vegetation result in temperature alternating with winter increase and summer decrease, but differences in the annual mean temperature are minor. During the LGM, the global climate, i.e., the large-scale circulation background has changed significantly. These changes have significant influences on temperature and precipitation over China. They result in considerable temperature decreases in this area, and direct the primary patterns and characteristics of temperature changes. Results display that, northeastern China has the greatest temperature decrease, and the temperature decrease in the Tibetan Plateau is larger than in the eastern part of China located at the same latitude. Moreover, the change of large-scale circulation background also controls the pattern of precipitation change. Results also show that, most of the changes in precipitation over western and northeastern parts of China are the consequences of changing large-scale circulation background, of which 50%-75% of precipitation changes over northern and eastern China are the results of changes in large-scale circulation backgrou     

Meteorological Satellite TIROS-N TOVS Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Property and Cloud

In this paper, a new retrieval method, i.e., the Statistical-Physical Retrieval Method (STPRM) has been developed. It is a combination of both statistical and physical method. On this basis, a retrieval system of temperature-humidity profiles and cloud parameters has been developed. By use of the developed TOVS STPRM the distribution of atmospheric temperature, humidity and geopotential height on isobaric surface can be obtained. In comparison with the statistical method and physical method, the TOVS STPRM system not only has the advantage of convenience in use, quickness in data processing and accuracy in retrieval result, but also can display cloud evolution on screen.     

A Numerical Experiment of Mesolow on the Eastern Side of the Taihang Mountains

A numerical experiment on the formation and decay process of a mesolow on the plain east to the Taihang Mountains has been conducted. The dynamical effect of the special topography of the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains on the formation of the mesolow is very important. Namely, the difference of the heating between the Taihang Mountains and the North China plain plays an important role in the formation and decay of the mesolow.     

Influence of Topography and Large-scale Forcing on the Occurrence of Katabatic Flow Jumps in Antarctica： Idealized Simulations

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System （RAMS）, which is a non-hydrostatic numerical model, has been used to investigate the impact of terrain shape and large-scale forcing on the Antarctic surface-wind regime, focusing on their roles in establishing favorable flow conditions for the formation of katabatic flow jumps. A series of quasi-2D numerical simulations were conducted over idealized slopes representing the slopes of Antarctica during austral winter conditions. Results indicate that the steepness and variations of the underlying slope play a role in the evolution of near-surface flows and thus the formation of katabatic flow jumps. However, large-scale forcing has a more noticeable effect on the occurrence of this small-scale phenomenon by establishing essential upstream and downstream flow conditions, including the upstream supercritical flow, the less stably stratified or unstable layer above the cold katabatic layer, as well as the cold-air pool located near the foot of the slope through an interaction with the underlying topography. Thus, the areas with steep and abrupt change in slopes, e.g. near the coastal areas of the eastern Antarctic, are preferred locations for the occurrence of katabatic flow jumps, especially under supporting synoptic conditions.     

Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulations of the Effects of a Cold Water Surface on the Evolution and Propagation of Thunderstorms

The influences of large areas of semi-unbounded cold water surface on the evolution, propagation and precipitation production of thunderstorms are simulated by using a fully elastic three-dimensional numerical hailstorm model. Real sounding profiles for temperature, humidity and wind are employed. The model has successfully simulated the significant modification of the propagation path of thunderstorms near the cold water area. The path change can be either ‘along-bank’ or ‘toward-bank’, depending on the position of the storm system relative to convergence zone of the water-land circulation. The simulations also show that thunderstorms developing or propagating within the convergence zone of local circulation will be intensified and produce much heavier hail, whereas those over cold water surface or the air that has been cooled by the water will be strongly inhibited.The influence of the cold water surface on thunderstorm characters is largely dependent upon the direction and intensity of the low-level wind.     

Numerical Study on Impact of the Boundary Layer Fluxes over Wetland on Sustention and Rainfall of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Numerical studies have been carried out to investigate the sustention and intensification of Typhoon Nina (7503), and the impacts of saturated wetland on the sustention and rainfall of tropical cyclone (TC) over land through sensitivity experiments, using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5v3 and its TC bogus scheme. The results show that the vertical transfer of fluxes in the boundary layer over saturated wetland has significant influence on the intensity, structure, and rainfall of a landfalling TC. The latent heating flux and the sensible heating flux are both favourable for TC sustaining and intensification on which the latent heating transfer is more favourable than the sensible heating transfer. They are also favourable for the maintenance of the spiral structure, and have an evident effect on the distribution of TC rainfall. The momentum flux weakens the TC vortex wind fields significantly, and is the dominant factor to dissipate and fill in a low pressure system, while it increases the local precipitation induced by a typhoon.     

Delayed Atmospheric Temperature Response to ENSO SST： Role of High SST and the Western Pacific

Tropical zonally symmetric atmospheric warming occurs during ENSO’s warm phase, and lags the equa- torial east Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) by 3–4 months. The role of the Indian and Atlantic oceans on the atmospheric delayed response has been pointed out by earlier studies. For 1951–2004, a regression analysis based on the observed SST data shows the western Pacific has a similarly important role as the Indian and Atlantic. Nevertheless, there is time mismatch of around 1–2 months between the zon...     

Influence of Clouds on UV Irradiance at Ground Level and Backscattered Exittance

The influence of various cloud parameters and the interactions with the ground albedo and the solar zenith angle have been studied by means of model simulations. The radiative transfer model suitable for a cloudy atmosphere as well as for a clear atmosphere has been developed on the basis of the Discrete Ordinate Method. This study leads to a general understanding for cloudy atmospheres: in the presence of a uniform cloud, the cloud scattering is dominant to molecular and aerosol scattering, and it is also wavelength-independent; the ratio of transmitted irradiance in a cloudy atmosphere to that in the background clear atmosphere is independent of cloud height and solar zenith angle. That’s to say, the radiation downwelling out of a cloud is quite isotropic; it decreases approximately exponentially with the cloud optical depth at a rate related to the ground albedo; the reflected irradiance at the top of the atmosphere is dependent on cloud optical depth as well as on solar zenith angle, but not on ground albedo for clouds of not very thin optical depth.     

Subscription Information on the Quarterly Journal of Acta Meteorologica Sinica （AMS）

The English Edition of AMS is a window through which foreign meteorologists could see the important findings and latest advances of atmospheric sciences in China, and it has become an international academic journal on atmospheric sciences. From 2005, the Editorial Office of AMS has altered from China Meteorological Press into Chinese Meteorological Society. AMS is intended to provide a base for rein-     

1,800 Years of abrupt climate change, severe fire, and accelerated erosion, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

This paper provides both a detailed history of environmental change in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years and evidence for climate teleconnections between the Sierra Nevada and Greenland during the late Holocene. A review of Greenland ice core data suggests that the magnitudes of abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation increased beginning c. 3,700 and 3,000 years ago, respectively. Precipitation increased abruptly 1,300 years ago. Comparing paleotemperature data from Cirque Peak, CA with paleoprecipitation data from Pyramid Lake, NV suggests that hot temperatures occurred at the beginnings of most severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. Severe fires and erosion also occurred at Coburn Lake, CA at the beginning of all severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. This suggests that abrupt climate change during the late Holocene caused vegetation and mountain slopes in some areas to be out of equilibrium with abruptly changed climates. Finally, the ending of drought conditions in Greenland coincided with the beginning of drought conditions in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years, perhaps as a result of the rapidly changed locations of the Earth??s major precipitation belts during abrupt climate change events.     

BDA方案对台风背景高温天气预报的改进

广州地Ⅸ的高温天气主要是受副热带高压和台风外围下沉气流的影响所致.文中采用BDA(Bogus Data Assimila-tion)方法,探讨BDA方案对广州地区台风背景条件下高温预报的改进能力.选取2005年7月中旬广州地区出现的高温天气进行研究.这是比较典型的受副热带高压和台风(海棠)共同影响造成高温的天气过程.分析有无采用BDA方案的模式初始场.结果表明:采用BDA方案同化Bogus模型可以调整台风中心位置和强度,使所得到的初始场中心位置与观测更为接近,台风强度(气压梯度力、风速)比末用Bogus的情况强,与观测值更为接近.数值模拟的结果表明,采用了BDA方案的敏感试验可以更好地预撤台风路径和台风中心强度变化,从而更好地预报高温天气,对高温区分布、日平均温度大小等的预报都有改进.文中对引起这种预报差异的原因进行了讨论,并探讨高温预报改进的可能机制.大气下沉运动的增强是高温预报改进的主要原因.敏感试验由于广州中低层大气的水汽减少,大气的下沉增强,致使天空的云量减少,对太阳短波辐射的阻挡减小,从而地面吸收热量增多,温度升高,输送给大气的感热增加,大气气温升高.采用BDA方案可以改进模式在台风"海棠"过程对广州高温的预报.     

The microstructure of selected, small, isolated, cumulus clouds near Red Deer, Alberta

Physical experiments designed to explore the potential of rain augmentation through airborne glaciogenic seeding on small, isolated non-precipitating cumuliform clouds near Red Deer, Alberta were carried out during the period 1982–1985. The microstructure of 90 cumulus congestus clouds have been documented through repeated in-situ sampling using a cloud physics instrumented aircraft platform. Observations from the inspection passes of 57 clouds seeded with either dry ice pellets or silver iodide pyrotechnics, and all the passes of 33 natural clouds are presented.Measurements of the cloud droplet concentration indicate that Alberta cumulus clouds are typically continental in nature, with an average droplet concentration of 535 cm⁻³ and an average droplet diameter of 10.6 μm. Alberta clouds have average liquid water contents of 0.57 g m⁻³, with a peak 1-sec value of 3.17 g m⁻³. The 1-km average liquid water contents are 0.83 g m⁻³, with a peak value of 2.81 g m⁻³. Cloud lifetimes vary between 11 and 20 minutes. Concentrations of naturally occurring ice crystals are found to be low. The average maximum 1-km ice concentration was 31⁻¹, and the peak 1-km concentration was 73.11⁻¹ in the natural cloud dataset. Evidence of precipitation-sized particles was detected in 21% (7 of 33) of the clouds, and precipitation below cloud base was detected in 6% (2 of 33) of the clouds.A comparison of the Alberta cloud characteristics to the cumulus clouds from different locations showed that there are some distinct differences between Alberta clouds and the clouds from the other regions.     

Distribution,speciation, and budget of atmospheric mercury

Total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations over the Atlantic Ocean and over Central Europe were measured repeatedly in the years 1978–1981. The latitudinal TGM distribution showed a pronounced and reproducible interhemispherical difference with higher TGM concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. TGM was found to be vertically well mixed within the troposphere. The TGM concentration seems to increase with time at a rate of 10±8%/yr in the Northern and 8±3%/yr in the Southern Hemisphere. Measurements of mercury speciation showed that elemental mercury is the main TGM component contributing more than 92% and 83% of TGM in marine and continental air, respectively. The tropospheric mercury burden was calculated to be 6×10⁹g. The interhemispheric distribution and temporal and spatial variability of TGM imply a tropospheric residence time of TGM of about 1 yr. Sink strengths calculated independently from the measured mercury concentration on particles and in rainwater are consistent with the above figures.     

Patterns of weak,near-surface winds at Melbourne,Australia

Up to 30 months of near-surface anemograph records have been examined from 13 locations in and near Melbourne, Australia, to determine the wind patterns which existed during prolonged periods of light winds (at least 3 hours at 2 m s^-1 or less). A coherent katabatic wind system was found to develop in at least part of the monitored region on approximately 30% of nights. The flow broadly followed the slope of the basin surrounding the city, with a strong flow down the main river valley, and was partly reinforced by a land breeze in bayside areas. Other valleys also acted as channels for these winds. The general tendency of these katabatic winds was to converge towards the central business district and the northern part of Port Phillip Bay adjacent to the city centre. Where winds from different directions interacted, one of the winds dominated or successive replacement occurred causing the wind direction to vary considerably during a period.There were indications that in the presence of low-level stability with a synoptic gradient wind between east and north, the gradient flow may be deflected around the major topographic barrier to the northeast of the city. The existence of such a situation would have major implications in terms of air quality due to the possibility of pollutants being recirculated in conditions when vertical diffusion was very limited.     

Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience

On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances.     

Governance,complexity, and resilience

This special issue brings together prominent scholars to explore novel multilevel governance challenges posed by the behavior of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Here we expand and investigate the emerging notion of “resilience” as a perspective for understanding how societies can cope with, and develop from, disturbances and change. As the contributions to the special issue illustrate, resilience thinking in its current form contains substantial normative and conceptual difficulties for the analysis of social systems. However, a resilience approach to governance issues also shows a great deal of promise as it enables a more refined understanding of the dynamics of rapid, interlinked and multiscale change. This potential should not be underestimated as institutions and decision-makers try to deal with converging trends of global interconnectedness and increasing pressure on social-ecological systems.     

On the Heat Islands of Washington,DC, and New York City,NY

Data collected in 2007 from a dense commercial network (operated by AWS Convergence Technologies, Inc.) of roof-mounted temperature sensors are used to explore the heat island characteristics of Washington, DC, and New York City, NY. Considerable spatial detail is revealed, but aggregating data in annuli centered on assumed central locations in the business districts of the two cities reveals that the heat islands extend out to more than 30 km, with the New York City island being somewhat larger. The results from both arrays reveal the influence of the surroundings, with large scatter of daytime results being characteristic of sites with the greatest local surface inhomogeneity. Nighttime data are more ordered, and suggest that surface air temperatures decrease by about 0.02°C km⁻¹ for the Washington case, and 0.04°C km⁻¹ for New York, with the winter behaviour being more pronounced than for other seasons. Scatter of the data in the daytime is a common feature for all seasons, but mainly for those with the strongest insolation. Comparison between working day and weekend temperatures provides convincing verification that the air responds quite slowly to changes in surface (radiometric) temperatures, with distance constants of the order of many tens of km. There appears to be a small wind speed effect, which is evident in the nighttime data but is largely obscured by scatter for the daytime.     

Performance of CMORPH,TMPA, and PERSIANN rainfall datasets over plain,mountainous, and glacial regions of Pakistan

The present study aims at the assessment of six satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) in Pakistan. For each assessed products, both real-time (RT) and post adjusted (Adj) versions are considered to highlight their potential benefits in the rainfall estimation at annual, monthly, and daily temporal scales. Three geomorphological climatic zones, i.e., plain, mountainous, and glacial are taken under considerations for the determination of relative potentials of these SREs over Pakistan at global and regional scales. All SREs, in general, have well captured the annual north-south rainfall decreasing patterns and rainfall amounts over the typical arid regions of the country. Regarding the zonal approach, the performance of all SREs has remained good over mountainous region comparative to arid regions. This poor performance in accurate rainfall estimation of all the six SREs over arid regions has made their use questionable in these regions. Over glacier region, all SREs have highly overestimated the rainfall. One possible cause of this overestimation may be due to the low surface temperature and radiation absorption over snow and ice cover, resulting in their misidentification with rainy clouds as daily false alarm ratio has increased from mountainous to glacial regions. Among RT products, CMORPH-RT is the most biased product. The Bias was almost removed on CMORPH-Adj thanks to the gauge adjustment. On a general way, all Adj versions outperformed their respective RT versions at all considered temporal scales and have confirmed the positive effects of gauge adjustment. CMORPH-Adj and TMPA-Adj have shown the best agreement with in situ data in terms of Bias, RMSE, and CC over the entire study area.     

Formation,Evolution, and Dissipation of Coastal Sea Fog

Evolution of sea fog has been investigated using three-dimensional Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) simulations. The study focused on widespread fog-cloud layers advected along the California coastal waters during 14–16 April 1999. According to analysis of the simulated trajectories, the intensity of air mass modification during this advection significantly depended on whether there were clouds along the trajectories and whether the modification took place over the land or ocean. The air mass, with its trajectory endpoint in the area where the fog was observed and simulated, gradually cooled despite the gradual increase in sea-surface temperature along the trajectory. Modelling results identified cloud-top cooling as a major determinant of marine-layer cooling and turbulence generation along the trajectories. Scale analysis showed that the radiative cooling term in the thermodynamic equation overpowered surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, and entrainment terms in cases of the transformation of marine clouds along the trajectories. Transformation of air masses along the trajectories without clouds and associated cloud-top cooling led to fog-free conditions at the endpoints of the trajectories over the ocean. The final impact on cloud-fog transition was determined by the interaction of synoptic and boundary-layer processes. Dissipation of sea fog was a consequence of a complex interplay between advection, synoptic evolution, and development of local circulations. Movement of the high-pressure system over land induced weakening of the along-shore advection and synoptic-pressure gradients, and allowed development of offshore flows that facilitated fog dissipation.