Dynamic routing modeling for flash flood forecast in river system

A real-time flood-forecasting method coupled with the one-dimensional unsteady flow model was developed for the Danshuei River system in northern Taiwan. Based on the flow at current time, the flow at new time is calculated to provide the water stage forecasting during typhoons. Data, from two typhoons in 2000: Bilis and Nari, were used to validate and evaluate the model capability. First, the developed model was applied to validate and evaluate with and without discharge corrections at the Hsin-Hai Bridge in Tahan Stream, Chung-Cheng Bridge in Hsintien Stream, and Sir-Ho Bridge in the Keelung River. The results indicate that the calculated water stage profiles approach the observed data. Moreover, the water stage forecasting hydrograph with discharge correction is close to the observed water stage hydrograph and yields a better prediction than that without discharge correction. The model was then used to quantify the difference in prediction between different methods of real-time water stage correction. The model results reveal that water stages using the 1–6 h forecast with real-time stage correction exhibits the best lead times. The accuracy for 1–3 h lead time is higher than that for 4–6 h lead time, suggesting that the flash flood forecast in the river system is reasonably accurate for 1–3 h lead time only. The method developed is effective for flash flood forecasting and can be adopted for flood forecasting in complicated river systems.     

长江中下游河湖洪水演进的数值模拟

以长江中下游(宜昌-大通)防洪系统为对象,在水文、河道及湖盆地形现状条件下,建立了一个能适应各种复杂条件的一二维非恒定流模型,来进行长江干流、河网、湖泊、分蓄洪区垸及水库的洪水演进和调度仿真.所建模型的洞庭湖部分采用无结构网格二维非恒定有限体积格式,以适应湖区复杂的边界形状和保持水量平衡.河网区部分采用一维非恒定流显隐结合的分块三级算法,以准确实现河网汊点流量的自动分配和往复流动.为了提高模拟精度和扩展模拟功能,在水流数值模拟的范围内侧重讨论了内外动边界处理、分蓄洪运用及阻力项计算等环节,提出了合理可行的数值处理方法.采用20世纪80年代至90年代共6年汛期洪水资料对所建模型进行了严格的率定和检验,高精度的模拟结果证实了模型的合理性和有效性.     

MERLIN: a flood hazard forecasting system for coastal river reaches

Natural Hazards - This study presents MERLIN, an innovative flood hazard forecasting system for predicting discharges and water levels at flood prone areas of coastal catchments. Discharge...     

陆气耦合模型在实时暴雨洪水预报中的应用

采用加拿大区域性中尺度大气模式MC2(Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community)和新安江模型单向耦合模型系统,对2005年7月4～15日发生在淮河流域的一场暴雨洪水,进行了实时预报.采用王家坝以上流域的实测降水和王家坝断面的实测洪水资料,对MC2预报降水的时空分布和陆气耦合模型预报的洪水过程进行了分析.结果表明,MC2对该场强降水过程具有很好的预报能力,陆气耦合模型有效地增长了洪水预报的预见期,具有很好的应用前景.     

Decision support system based on the history of flood and flash flood events in Romania

A lightweight decision support system is presented, oriented also to statistics, useful for assisting weather forecasters and other parties interested in hazard assessment associated with extreme weather. The system can be used in enhancing the warning procedures, ahead of a flood or a flash flood whose probability of occurrence is based on the history of such events in a particular region. A software application has been built that integrates meteorological data with Geographical Information Systems procedures, in a unified informational aggregate. This system stores various types of data related to flood and flash flood events, so it is able to provide the user with any piece of information related to a documented event. It also catalogues any information that users provide it with, to further document a past, or an ongoing event. The system can be used to raise awareness of forecasters over a particular context, before a possibly hazardous situation, and it can also offer automatic warnings and suggestions to those interested in disaster mitigation.     

Regional flood frequency modeling for a large basin in India

The computation of flood magnitude and its likely occurrence to design different hydraulic structures are major challenges to the research community. The present study has been carried out to identify the homogeneous regions in the Mahanadi basin in Chhattisgarh part (data from 26 gauge/discharge sites) of India using conventional and clustering-based homogeneity tests and then computation and identification of probability-weighted moment and L-moment-based best regional distributions for different regions. Different simple to complex distributions like Extreme Value-I, Generalized Extreme Value, Logistic, Generalized Logistic, Generalized Pareto, Normal and Log-normal, Wakeby-4, and Wakeby-5 was used in the analysis through standardizing procedure to compute regional distributions. The best-fit distribution selected by simulating several series and compute L-kurtosis along with the L-moment ratio diagram. The homogeneity analysis confirmed that this basin can broadly be divided into two different homogeneous regions with 15 and 11 stations in the first (Region-1) and second (Region-2) regions, respectively. The GEV distribution was found best suited for Region-1 while the Generalized Pareto worked well for Region-2. To make results more convenient for field application, catchment area-based equations were converted in the form of Dicken’s or Ryve’s formulae for these regions to estimate flood quantiles of any return period.

     

黄河下游漫滩高含沙洪水滩槽界定及泥沙时空沉积特性

黄河下游漫滩高含沙洪水河床调整剧烈,多数断面洪水后形成"相对窄深河槽",洪水前后河槽宽度发生明显变化。分别以观测断面洪水前后的河槽宽度为基准,计算漫滩高含沙洪水期泥沙时空沉积分布,结果表明,漫滩高含沙洪水与非漫滩高含沙洪水相比,能将主河槽内淤积泥沙量的59.3%搬运至嫩滩或滩地,减缓主河槽淤积。在分析研究基础上,建立了洪水后漫滩河段河槽相对缩窄率与洪水前期河槽宽度的量化关系,洪水后主槽宽度缩窄率为15.5%~44.0%;分析遴选了漫滩高含沙洪水滩地淤积量与主要水力因子间关联度及物理含义,给出了漫滩高含沙洪水滩地淤积量与相应水力因子间的响应函数;初步提出漫滩洪水河道塑槽淤滩的临界水沙配置指标,临界水沙系数取值为0.025~0.040。成果对高含沙洪水调控具有一定的指导意义。     

Modeling flood dynamics in a temporary river draining to an eutrophic reservoir in southeast Portugal

Enxoé is a small temporary river with a flushy regime, which flash floods carry significant loads to the reservoir. As a result, the reservoir, which supplies 25,000 inhabitants, exhibits a high trophic state and cyanobacteria blooms since its construction in 1998, with water abstractions requiring extensive treatment. This study aimed to understand the contribution of flash floods to the Enxoé’s reservoir high trophic state using a modeling approach. This was the first time the river was monitored and that a modeling study was carried out. The MOHID-Land model was implemented to assess the water path in the catchment, and was integrated with field data to compute river loads. Results confirmed the importance of flash events. During flash floods, water properties were determined by soil surface and river bottom wash out, and depended mostly on the flush sequence and intensity. Model simulations showed that soil surface permeability reduction was an important factor regulating surface runoff while soil moisture was low. The first flood after the dry period contributed to 2% of the yearly discharge, 3% of yearly N load, and 7% of the yearly P loads. Winter floods contribution differed, producing 10% of both yearly discharge and loads. However, concentration of particulate matter and organic compounds in the first flood were one order of magnitude higher than in winter floods. This was due to river bottom resuspension and erosion of riparian areas, representative dynamics of a flushy regime. During subsequent winter floods, nutrient concentrations tended to remain constant as the watershed surface and respective soils were washed. Further work should link a watershed model to a reservoir model to depict the flood impact in the reservoir, and test management strategies to reduce the reservoir trophic state.     

Test of a distributed modelling approach to predict flood flows in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in Vietnam

The major obstacles for modelling flood processes in karst areas are a lack of understanding and model representations of the distinctive features and processes associated with runoff generation and often a paucity of field data. In this study, a distributed flood-modelling approach, WetSpa, is modified and applied to simulate the hydrological features and processes in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in northwest Vietnam. With input of topography, land use and soil types in a GIS format, the model is calibrated based on 15 months of hourly meteorological and hydrological data, and is used to simulate both fast surface and conduit flows, and groundwater discharges from karst and non-karst aquifers. Considerable variability in the simulation accuracy is found among storm events and within the catchment. The simulation results show that the model is able to represent reasonably well the stormflows generated by rainfall events in the study catchment.     

Development of a flood forecasting system using IFAS: a case study of scarcely gauged Jhelum and Chenab river basins

Development of a well-calibrated, distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting based on rainfall and snowmelt is quite challenging, especially when in situ data is limited or unavailable. This paper presents the study carried out to parameterise the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model for the trans-boundary, scarcely gauged catchments of Jhelum and Chenab rivers in Pakistan. Rainfall-runoff analysis was performed with a two-layered tank configuration, integrating snowmelt and dam and barrage operation from the very upstream in India to Trimmu Barrage in Pakistan. A grid size of 5?×?5 km was considered. Global map topography, land cover and soil data was utilised. The model was tested considering different magnitudes of floods of the years 2014, 2015 and 2017. The results showed that the satellite rainfall product, i.e. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP-NRT), underestimated the rainfall volume, compared to the ground-gauged rainfall. The GSMaP-IF correction method showed poor performance owing to the lack of ground observatory rainfall data for correcting the trans-boundary part of the basin. The GSMaP-Type1 correction method showed good results, except for the confluence point where complex flow conditions were not properly reproduced by the model. In addition, the incorporation of dam and barrages in the model improved the simulated flow results. It is concluded that the satellite rainfall estimates must be corrected to improve the results. Snowmelt module estimated the snowmelt contribution as 3 to 7% and 4 to 23% of the average daily discharge during the monsoon season at Mangla Dam and Marala Barrage, respectively, during 2014 and 2015. This study assessed various correction methods and concluded that the model and methodology used in the study functioned well with suitable precipitation.     

Correction to: Evaluation of a synthetic rainfall model,P-CLIPER,for use in coastal flood modeling

Natural Hazards - Equation 3 was found to have a typographical error that produced negative rainfall rates.     

Capability of LISEM to estimate flood hydrographs in a watershed with predominance of long-duration rainfall events

Natural Hazards - Process-based hydrological models are of great importance to understand hydrological processes and support decision making. The LImburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) requires...     

香溪河岩溶流域水系结构与洪峰特征关系

为研究香溪河岩溶流域地表水系结构特征与洪峰流量衰减过程规律,采用统计方法分析典型子流域的水系结构特征,采用流量衰减方程分析其典型退水过程。地表水流量衰减过程存在若干个亚动态,将各个亚动态的水量分配比例作为描述洪峰特征的特征值,将水系数目比例、水系长度比例作为描述水系结构的特征值,把两者作相关分析。结果表明:岩溶区水系长度比例与水量比例在第一和第三亚动态具有较高的相关性,相关性判定系数高达0.84,使用水系长度比例更能反映水系结构的特征。      

Rainfall-runoff modeling for storm events in a coastal forest catchment using neural networks

The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both temporal and spatial ＂variabilities, In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using the artificial neural networks （ANN） is proposed for simulating the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coastal forest catchment, located in Seto Inland Sea, Japan, This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obtained by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfall depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rainfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy,     

Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera,Iceland

Eruptions in the subglacial Katla caldera, South Iceland, release catastrophic jokulhlaups (meltwater floods). The ice surface topography divides the caldera into three drainage sectors (Ko, So and En sectors) that drain onto Myrdalssandur, Solheimasandur and Markarfljot plains, respectively. In historical times, floods from the Ko sector have been dominant, with only two recorded So events. Geological records indicate that floods from the En sector occur every 500–800 years. A probabilistic model for an eruption is formulated in general terms by a stochastic parameter that simulates a series giving the time interval in years between two consecutive events. The model also contains a Markovian matrix that controls the location of the event and thereby what watercourse is hit by the flood. A record of Katla eruptions since the 8th and the 9th century a.d., and geological information of volcanogenic floods towards the west over the last 8,000 years is used to calibrate the model. The model is then used to find the probabilities for floods from the three sectors: Ko, So and En. The simulations predict that the most probable eruption interval for the En sector and the So sector is several times smaller than the average time interval, implying infrequent periods of high activity in these sectors. A correlation is found between the magnitude of eruptions and the following time intervals. Using the statistical approach and considering this magnitude–time interval correlation, the probability of an eruption in Katla volcano is considered to be 20% within the next 10 years. This compares to a probability of 93% if only a simple average is considered. These probabilities do not take account of long-term eruption precursors and should therefore be regarded as minimum values.     

流域防洪效益计算宏观模型

针对现有防洪效益计算模型所需资料多、计算复杂等问题,本文在符合防洪效益特点的宏观假定基础上,提出了防洪效益计算的洪水频率面积系数和洪水频率严重系数,并用水文学和数理统计的有关原理导出了流域防洪系统效益计算的宏观模型。算例研究的结果表明:模型理论上合理,实际应用简单,可操作性强。