Multiple model combination methods for annual maximum water level prediction during river ice breakup

The Athabasca River is the largest unregulated river in Alberta, Canada, with ice jams frequently occurring in the vicinity of Fort McMurray. Modelling tools are desired to forecast ice‐related flood events. Multiple model combination methods can often obtain better predictive performances than any member models due to possible variance reduction of forecast errors or correction of biases. However, few applications of this method to river ice forecasting are reported. Thus, a framework of multiple model combination methods for maximum breakup water level (MBWL) Prediction during river ice breakup is proposed. Within the framework, the member models describe the relations between the MBWL (predicted variable) and their corresponding indicators (predictor variables); the combining models link the relations between the predicted MBWL by each member model and the observed MBWL. Especially, adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference systems, artificial neural networks, and multiple linear regression are not only employed as member models but also as combining models. Simple average methods (SAM) are selected as the basic combining model due to simple calculations. In the SAM, an equal weight (1/n) is assigned to n member models. The historical breakup data of the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray for the past 36 years (1980 to 2015) are collected to facilitate the comparison of models. These models are examined using the leave‐one‐out cross validation and the holdout validation methods. A SAM, which is the average output from three optimal member models, is selected as the best model as it has the optimal validation performance (lowest average squared errors). In terms of lowest average squared errors, the SAM improves upon the optimal artificial neural networks, adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference systems, and multiple linear regression member models by 21.95%, 30.97%, and 24.03%, respectively. This result sheds light on the effectiveness of combining different forecasting models when a scarce river ice data set is investigated. The indicators included in the SAM may indicate that the MBWL is affected by water flow conditions just after freeze‐up, overall freezing conditions during winter, and snowpack conditions before breakup.     

Evaluation of various relationships of reaeration rate coefficient for modeling dissolved oxygen in a river with extreme flow variations in Pakistan

Mathematical relationships have been developed for reaeration rate coefficient (K_a) by various researchers. These relationships have a number of variables such as depth, velocity, width, slope, Froud number, molecular diffusion coefficient, kinematic viscosity and the gas‐transfer Reynolds number. From these variables, 29 relations have been developed and divided into four groups. To evaluate their predictive capability for highly variable flow rivers receiving high pollution loads form large cities, these relationships have been used to model dissolved oxygen (DO) in the River Ravi. Such rivers are either saturated with DO during high flows or anaerobic during critical low‐flow conditions. The evaluation is based on the agreement between model DO values calculated using K_a obtained from the available equations and the measured DO concentrations in the river samples in terms of sum of square of residuals (SSR) and coefficient of determination (R²). It has been found that in general, the group of equations containing depth and velocity as the only two variables affecting K_a performed better than the equations in other groups as reflected by lower SSR and higher R² values. The study results also reveal that the turbulence‐based reaeration rate coefficient equation containing additional variables also resulted in close agreement between DO model results and the measured values. The study results identify the most important parameters affecting the reaeration rate coefficient and the suitability of various K_a relationships as well for rivers with highly variable flows. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying ice storage in upper Indus river basin using ground-penetrating radar measurements and glacier bed topography model version 2

Ice reserve estimates is a fundamental prerequisite for water resources management. We selected the UIB (upper Indus river basin) as study area because it contains the most abundant mid-latitude glaciers outside the polar region, however, the ice reserve estimates remain unclear due to the harsh topography. In this study, we validated the parameters of the GlabTop2 model (Glacier Bed Topography version 2) using the ice thickness measured by GPR (ground-penetrating radar) and compared the “GPR-measured ice thickness and ice bed elevation” versus “the estimated results obtained from GlabTop2.” Integrated with IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolated results of glaciers of various sizes, a reasonable parametric scheme (τ = 120 kPa and f = 0.8) of GlabTop2 was applied on vast amounts of glaciers in the UIB region. The GlabTop2 estimates indicated that the ice thickness of the UIB varied from 0 to 736.0 ± 110.0 m, with an average value of 74.5 ± 11.2 m. A significant spatial heterogeneity exists in the sub-basins. The Shyok, Shigar and Hunza that contain the most abundant ice reserve. Lesser quantities are stored in the Western Himalaya and Hindu Kush ranges, which account for 11.3 % and 6.7 % of the total ice reserve in the UIB, respectively. A total volume of 1162.4 ± 175.1 km³ of glacier can be converted to 1046.2 ± 157.6 Gt ice reserve; this is 13.6 times the annual average discharge obtained from the outlet of the Besham hydrological station. We aim to present estimates that can provide the baseline information for glaciology study of the Indus river.     

Modeling river dune development and dune transition to upper stage plane bed

Large asymmetric bedforms known as dunes commonly dominate the bed of sand rivers. Due to the turbulence generation over their stoss and lee sides, dunes are of central importance in predicting hydraulic roughness and water levels. During floods in steep alluvial rivers, dunes are observed to grow rapidly as flow strength increases, undergoing an unstable transition regime, after which they are washed out in what is called upper stage plane bed. This transition of dunes to upper stage plane bed is associated with high transport of bed sediment in suspension and large decrease in bedform roughness. In the present study, we aim to improve the prediction of dune development and dune transition to upper stage plane bed by introducing the transport of suspended sediment in an existing dune evolution model. In addition, flume experiments are carried out to investigate dune development under bed load and suspended load dominated transport regimes, and to get insight in the time scales related to the transition of dunes to upper stage plane bed. Simulations with the extended model including the transport of suspended sediment show significant improvement in the prediction of equilibrium dune parameters (e.g. dune height, dune length, dune steepness, dune migration rate, dune lee side slope) both under bed load dominant and suspended load dominant transport regimes. The chosen modeling approach also allows us to model the transition of dunes to upper stage plane bed which was not possible with the original dune evolution model. The extended model predicts change in the dune shapes as was observed in the flume experiments with decreasing dune heights and dune lee slopes. Furthermore, the time scale of dune transition to upper stage plane bed was quite well predicted by the extended model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A detailed energy budget analysis of river supercooling and the importance of accurately quantifying net radiation to predict ice formation

River supercooling and ice formation is a regular occurrence throughout the winter in northern countries. The resulting frazil ice production can obstruct the flow through intakes along the river, causing major problems for hydropower and water treatment facilities, among others. Therefore, river ice modellers attempt to calculate the river energy budget and predict when supercooling will occur in order to anticipate and mitigate the effects of potential intake blockages. Despite this, very few energy budget studies have taken place during freeze-up, and none have specifically analysed individual supercooling events. To improve our understanding of the freeze-up energy budget detailed measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, short- and longwave radiation, and water temperature were made on the Dauphin River in Manitoba. During the river freeze-up period of late October to early November 2019, a total of six supercooling events were recorded. Analysis of the energy budget throughout the supercooling period revealed that the most significant heat source was net shortwave radiation, reaching up to 298 W/m², while the most significant heat loss was net longwave radiation, accounting for losses of up to 135 W/m². Longwave radiation was also the most significant heat flux overall during the individual supercooling events, accounting for up to 84% of the total heat flux irrespective of flux direction, highlighting the importance of properly quantifying this flux during energy budget calculations. Five different sensible (Q_h) and latent (Q_e) heat flux calculations were also compared, using the bulk aerodynamic method as the baseline. It was found that the Priestley and Taylor method most-closely matched the bulk aerodynamic method on a daily timescale with an average offset of 8.5 W/m² for Q_h and 10.1 W/m² for Q_e, while a Dalton-type equation provided by Webb and Zhang was the most similar on a sub-daily timescale with average offsets of 20.0 and 14.7 W/m² for Q_h and Q_e, respectively.     

Modeling planform evolution of a mud‐dominated meandering river: Quinn River,Nevada, USA

A depth‐averaged linearized meander evolution model was calibrated and tested using the field data collected at the Quinn River in the Black Rock Desert, Nevada. Two approaches used to test the model were: (1) simulating meander evolution and comparing the results with the observed 38 year migration pattern; and (2) fitting the model parameters to present bank asymmetry (the ratio of the maximum bank gradients on opposite sides of the channel). The data required as input were collected in the field during a high flow in May 2011 and from aerial photographs and LiDAR data. Both approaches yielded similar results for the best fit parameter values. The bank asymmetry analysis showed that the bank asymmetry and the velocity perturbation have high correlation at close to zero spatial lag while the maximum correlation between the bank asymmetry and maximum bend curvature is offset by about 25 m. The model sufficiently replicated 38 years of channel migration, with a few locations significantly under‐ or over‐predicted. Inadequacies of the flow model and/or variation in bank properties unaccounted for are most likely the causes for these discrepancies. Flow through the Quinn River was also simulated by a more general 3D model. The downstream pattern of near‐bank shear stresses simulated by the 3D model is nearly identical to those resulting from the linearized flow model. Topographic profiles across interior bends are essentially invariant over a wide range of migration rates, suggesting that the traditional formulation that cut bank erosion processes govern migration rates is appropriate for the Quinn River. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An automated algorithm for river ice monitoring over the Susquehanna River using the MODIS data

Reliable and prompt information on river ice condition and extent is needed to make accurate hydrological forecasts to predict ice jams breakups and issue timely flood warnings. This study presents a technique to detect and monitor river ice using observations from the MODIS instrument onboard the Terra satellite. The technique incorporates a threshold‐based decision tree image classification algorithm to process MODIS data and to determine the extent of ice. To differentiate between ice‐covered and ice‐free pixels within the riverbed, the algorithm combines observations in the visible and near‐infrared spectral bands. The developed technique presents the core of the MODIS‐based river ice mapping system, which has been developed to support National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS's operations. The system has been tested over the Susquehanna River in northeastern USA, where ice jam events leading to spring floods are a frequent occurrence. The automated algorithm generates three products: daily ice maps, weekly composite ice maps and running cloud‐free composite ice maps. The performance of the system was evaluated over nine winter seasons. The analysis of the derived products has revealed their good agreement with the aerial photography and with in situ observations‐based ice charts. The probability of ice detection determined from the comparison of the product with the high‐resolution Landsat imagery was equal to 91%. A consistent inverse relationship was found between the river discharge and the ice extent. The correlation between the discharge and the ice extent as determined from the weekly composite product reached 0.75. The developed CREST River Ice Observation System has been implemented at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–Cooperative Remote Sensing Science and Technology Center as an operational Web tool allowing end users and forecasters to assess ice conditions on the river. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

太湖地区河网水体石油类浓度预测

利用完全混合系统水文动力学模型,对太湖地区河道改造后,由于船型及船流量发生变化而导致的水体石油类浓度的变化进行了预测。通过类比分析得出：预测结果基本符合实际。     

Hydro‐climatic impacts on the ice cover of the lower Peace River

Since the late 1960s, a paucity of ice‐jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) region. Though major ice jams occur at breakup, antecedent conditions play a significant role in their frequency and severity. These conditions are partly defined by the mode of freezeup and the maximum thickness that is attained during the winter, shortly before the onset of spring and development of positive net heat fluxes to the ice cover. Data from hydrometric gauge records and from field surveys are utilized herein to study these conditions. It is shown that freezeup flows are considerably larger at the present time than before regulation, and may be responsible for more frequent formation of porous accumulation covers. Despite a concomitant rise in winter temperatures, solid‐ice thickness has increased since the 1960s. Using a simple ice growth model, specifically developed for the study area, it is shown that porous accumulation covers enhance winter ice growth via accelerated freezing into the porous accumulation. Coupled with a reduction in winter snowfall, this effect can not only negate, but reverse, the effect of warmer winters on ice thickness, thus explaining present conditions. The present model is also shown to be a useful prediction tool, especially for extrapolating incomplete data to the end of the winter. Copyright © 2007 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of ice cover on flow characteristics in a subarctic meandering river

The effects of ice cover on flow characteristics in meandering rivers are still not completely understood. Here, we quantify the effects of ice cover on flow velocity, the vertical and spatial flow distribution, and helical flow structure. Comparison with open‐channel low flow conditions is performed. An acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) is used to measure flow from up to three meander bends, depending on the year, in a small sandy meandering subarctic river (Pulmanki River) during two consecutive ice‐covered winters (2014 and 2015). Under ice, flow velocities and discharges were predominantly slower than during the preceding autumn open‐channel conditions. Velocity distribution was almost opposite to theoretical expectations. Under ice, velocities reduced when entering deeper water downstream of the apex in each meander bend. When entering the next bend, velocities increased again together with the shallower depths. The surface velocities were predominantly greater than bottom/riverbed velocities during open‐channel flow. The situation was the opposite in ice‐covered conditions, and the maximum velocities occurred in the middle layers of the water columns. High‐velocity core (HVC) locations varied under ice between consecutive cross‐sections. Whereas in ice‐free conditions the HVC was located next to the inner bank at the upstream cross‐sections, the HVC moved towards the outer bank around the apex and again followed the thalweg in the downstream cross‐sections. Two stacked counter‐rotating helical flow cells occurred under ice around the apex of symmetric and asymmetric bends: next to the outer bank, top‐ and bottom‐layer flows were towards the opposite direction to the middle layer flow. In the following winter, no clear counter‐rotating helical flow cells occurred due to the shallower depths and frictional disturbance by the ice cover. Most probably the flow depth was a limiting factor for the ice‐covered helical flow circulation, similarly, the shallow depths hinder secondary flow in open‐channel conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

乌梁素海冰封期湖泊冰盖组构特征对污染物分布的影响

为探究富营养化浅水湖泊季节性冰盖污染物分布规律,于2013-2014年冰封期,钻取乌梁素海湖泊冰盖冰芯试样,观测冰厚并对冰芯晶体结构、气泡含量、污染物浓度(总氮、总磷和COD_(Cr))进行分析.结果表明:冰盖可分为4层,中间2层冰晶体粒径较大且气泡含量较少,为冰盖热力生长区.冰盖以柱状晶体居多,粒径随深度增加而增加,气泡含量随冰盖密度增加而减少.冰盖结构特征与污染物分布具有相关关系,冰芯密度及气泡分布与总氮、总磷和COD_(Cr)相关关系分别为0.8965、0.8718、0.8184,并建立多元回归模型揭示冰封期湖泊水质特征,为季节性湖泊冰盖研究及冰封期湖泊水资源规划和管理提供理论依据.     

Physical explanations of variations in river meander migration rates from model comparison

In meandering rivers, the local channel migration rate increases with increasing bend sharpness until it reaches a maximum at a certain critical value of the bend sharpness. Beyond this critical value, the migration rate decreases if bend sharpness increases. Similarly, reach‐averaged migration rates attain a maximum at a certain river sinuosity. This work investigates the physics of these phenomena by comparing the results of two physics‐based models of different complexity, in which the migration rates are proportional to the near‐bank flow velocity excess. In the computational tests the river was allowed to meander progressively, starting from an almost straight planimetry. Both models reproduced the observed peak in the curve describing the local migration rate as a function of the ratio radius of curvature‐channel width (R/B), with a rising limb at lower R/B values and a falling limb at higher R/B values. The rising limb can be explained by the decrease in relative lag distance between near‐bank flow velocity and forcing curvature as R/B increases. The falling limb results from the decrease in local channel curvature and near‐bank flow velocity excess. Since the models do not include flow separation, the results indicate that this phenomenon is not needed to explain the decrease of channel migration rates in sharp bends. The models reproduced also the peak in the curve describing the reach‐averaged migration rates as a function of river sinuosity The increase and then decrease of reach‐averaged migration rates as sinuosity increases appears to be mainly caused by the variation of the reach‐averaged value of the ratio R/B. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantification of river water infiltration in shallow aquifers using acesulfame and anthropogenic gadolinium

This study has investigated the use of the artificial sweetener acesulfame and the magnetic resonance imaging contrast agent gadolinium as quantitative tracers for river water infiltration into shallow groundwater. The influence of a river on alluvial groundwater in a subalpine catchment in western Europe has been assessed using the ‘classical’ hydrochemical tracer chloride and the trace contaminants acesulfame and anthropogenic gadolinium. Mixing ratios for riverine bank filtrate with ambient groundwater and the uncertainties associated with the temporal and spatial tracer variability were calculated using acesulfame and gadolinium and compared with those obtained using chloride. The temporal variability of tracer concentrations in river water of gadolinium (standard deviation SD: 63%) and acesulfame (SD: 71%) both exceeded that of chloride (SD: 27%), and this was identified as the main source of uncertainty in the mixing analysis. Similar spatial distributions were detected in the groundwater for chloride and gadolinium, but not for acesulfame. Mixing analyses using acesulfame resulted in calculated mixing ratios that differed from those obtained using gadolinium and chloride by up to 83% and 92%, respectively. At the investigated site, which had oxic conditions and moderate temperatures, acesulfame was found to be a less reliable tracer than either gadolinium or chloride, probably because of natural attenuation and input from other sources. There was no statistically significant difference between the mixing ratios obtained using chloride or gadolinium, the mixing ratios obtained using gadolinium were 40–50% lower than those obtained using chloride. This is mainly due to a bias of the mean gadolinium concentration in river water towards higher values. In view of the uncertainties of the two tracers, neither could be preferred over the other for the quantification of bank filtrate in groundwater. At this specific site gadolinium was able to reliably identify river water infiltration and was a more precise tracer than chloride at low mixing ratios (<20%), because of the exclusive occurrence of gadolinium in river water and its high dynamic range. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bifurcation modelling in a meandering gravel–sand bed river

The Rhine bifurcation at Pannerden forms the major distribution point for water supply in the Netherlands, distributing not only water and sediment but also flooding risks and navigability. Its morphological stability has been a concern for centuries. We present experiences from more than two decades of numerical morphological modelling of this bifurcation with a gravel–sand bed and a meandering planform. Successive computations have shown the importance of upstream approach conditions, the necessity to include physical mechanisms for grain sorting and alluvial roughness, and the need to assume a thicker active layer of the river bed than is suggested by laboratory flume experiments using a constant discharge. The active layer must be thicker in the model to account for river bed variations due to higher‐frequency discharge variations that are filtered out in morphological modelling. We discuss limitations in calibration and verification, but argue that, notwithstanding these limitations, 2D and 3D morphological models are valuable tools, not only for pragmatic applications to engineering problems, but also for revealing the limitations of established knowledge and understanding of the relevant physical processes. The application of numerical models to the Pannerden bifurcation appeared to reveal shortcomings in established model formulations that do not pose particular problems in other cases. This application is therefore particularly useful for setting the agenda for further research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeomorphic processes of thermokarst lakes with grounded‐ice and floating‐ice regimes on the Arctic coastal plain,Alaska

Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35‐year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from < 0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P ? E_L) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter‐term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long‐term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded‐ice lakes are ice‐free on average 37 days longer than floating‐ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P ? E_L. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of cascade reservoirs on continuity of river water temperature: A temperature trend hypothesis in river

Water temperature is an important habitat factor in river ecosystems that exhibits the characteristics of continuous change. Dam construction disrupts the continuity of river water temperature and reset it, thus exerting sharp rise/decrease on the characteristics of water temperature change. The effect of a dam on river continuity is directly related to the dam size. To explain this relationship, two rivers in China were selected: one river without reservoirs and one river with cascade reservoirs. Through the analysis of the longitudinal change of water temperature in free-flowing rivers, we found that water temperature changes continuously and steadily in the longitudinal direction. Based on this, a temperature trend hypothesis in river was proposed, and the discontinuity of the water temperature in the reservoir section was evaluated. The results are as follows: (1) In mixed reservoirs, river water temperature remained as continuous as free-flowing rivers. However, the river water temperature had a large discontinuity in the stratified reservoir. (2) Water residence time was used as an indicator of the continuity of reservoir water temperature. (3) Selective withdrawal of stratified reservoirs in January could not remove the discontinuity caused by itself, but it worked in June.     

Restoring a glacier-fed river: Past and present morphodynamics of a degraded channel in the Italian Alps

The present study explores the evolutionary trajectory of the glacier-fed Mareit River (South Tyrol, Italian Alps), where a large restoration programme was implemented in 2008–2009. River corridor changes before and after the restoration works were assessed using historical maps, recent field observations, topographic surveys and topographic differencing. Trends of anthropic (forest cover, channel works, gravel mining) and natural (glacial cover, precipitation, flow regime) factors controlling channel morphology – at both catchment and reach scales – were reconstructed. From the mid-19th century, the evolutionary trajectory of the Mareit River followed a degradational trend, characterized by channel narrowing, bed incision and planform simplification. Direct, in-channel human alterations – mainly in the form of bank protections (in the late 19th century), gravel mining (mostly in the 1970s) and grade-control works (since the 1980s) – dominated the historical adjustments before the restoration. In 2008–2009, a segment of the Mareit was restored by widening the channel, partly removing the check-dams and shaping a braided pattern within a laterally constrained corridor. Post-work monitoring shows that the restoration improved both the morphological quality and the geomorphic diversity. At present, the channel is subject to narrowing and slight bed level incision, with islands and floodplains progressively expanding at the expenses of the active channel. This trend is likely to continue in the next decades based on the expected future flow regime, and indeed the Mareit River seems to be attaining a ‘miniaturized’ version of the anabranching pattern of the mid-19th century. Overall, this restoration approach and the associated evolutionary trajectory is considered positive, because it leads to a complex mosaic of geomorphic units, dynamically self-adjusting to the time-varying driving variables. The formation of a morphodynamically active corridor, while keeping artificially non-erodible boundaries, represents an optimal strategy to integrate ecological improvements with flood risk mitigation in the densely populated Alpine valleys. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The maximum depth of a river as a stochastic process

The maximum depth of a river section is schematized as a non‐stationary continuous‐parameter continuous stochastic process, with a three‐parameter lognormal distribution. Two processes, represented by a first‐order and a second‐order differential equation, are considered. Non‐stationarity is accounted for by the mean, the other parameters being assumed constant. The continuous processes are then discretized as AR(1) and ARMA(2,1) processes respectively, and used for computing the conditional probability (which is of practical interest) for a given maximum depth not to be exceeded in a period of given length. The models are applied to the River Po (Italy) and the AR(1) model is found to be preferable. An analysis of the effect of discretizing the parameter is also carried out, considering the second‐order model and the conditional probability, for which analytical results for the continuous‐parameter model are available. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黑龙江红河谷及邻近地区地震活动特征

应用地震活动性研究的基本方法对黑龙江河谷及邻近地区的地震活动特征进行了研究。结果表明，其地震活动在时间上具有一定的准周期特征，在空间上和主要构造带关系密切，近期中强地震活动可能比较活跃。