对加快气象信息服务商业化进程的思考

从现阶段我国的气象信息商业化服务状况出发，介绍了国外的三种气象信息商业化服务模式。揭示了实现气象信息服务商业化的必要性，指出了气象信息服务商业化进程中的若干问题，并针对这些问题提出了加快气象信息服务商业化进程的对策。     

谈谈气象服务的商业化

现今的气象科技产品和服务运作已进入市场领域 ,都具有商业色彩。国外的商业化气象信息及其生产加工技术产品早已打破国界 ,像空气一样无处不在。我国气象的商业化服务(专业有偿服务部分)始于1985年 ,它晚于欧美国家约半个世纪 ,但它发展迅速 ,商业化服务产品已从单一领域发展到多行业、多部门。15年来 ,它记录了从计划经济过渡到市场经济体制中的重要篇章 ,它的历史功绩已经载入史册。气象服务商业化的发展 ,必将推进气象事业的兴旺发达。笔者仅就气象服务商业化问题谈谈几点看法和建议 ,愿与同志们共同讨论。     

气象服务在转型期间的困境与出路

文章分析了目前气象服务的现状,发现气象服务业务对天气短信依赖度太高,受到商业化气象服务冲击非常大;在目前市场化的气象服务中,天气app面临用户量大但是盈利小的困境,原因在于天气信息本身不具备社交性。因此,气象服务要开辟新的服务模式,最大的方向在于通过改变传统的服务模式,最大规模地积攒用户;在此基础上,最大程度地调动用户的参与性。     

日本气象业务现代化建设系列报道之三 日本气象服务

日本气象服务工作是由气象部门（专业）和社会（民间）有关部门共同承担，体现了气象服务的多方位、立体化、交叉网络和商业化的特点。1日本气象服务的组织分工日本气象服务的组织分工是根据日本国会有关法律和世界气象组织第12次大会决议中有关内容（国家气象水文部门与商业气象部门之间关系准则由分的。日本气象厅及所属各台站承担了日本国内气象观测、天气预报和向公众进行公益性气象服务。商业化（有偿）气象服务由民间私人气象公司承担。日本气象厅委托公益法人的气象业务支援中心无偿向民间气象服务公司提供气象服务所需的气象资料和…     

国外商业气象服务业概况

引言气象工作是帮助人类趋利避害 ,从有利的天气和气候中获得效益 ,从避免气象灾害中减少损失。如何把气象原始信息向信息产品转化 ,向社会提供全方位的优质服务 ,就成了气象人义不容辞的责任和义务。了解国外气象商业化服务对提高我国的气象商业化服务大有益处。那么 ,什么是商业化呢 ?商业化就是在产业化、商品化的物质基础上所进行的、以盈利为目的的经营活动。商业化是人类进步和经济发展的一种表现 ,气象服务自进入产业化、商品化和商业化后也不例外。商业化经营的目的就是追求自身的生存和发展 ,商业利润是其追求的唯一目的。美国、日…     

浅谈气象服务商业化

阐述了目前我国气象服务工作市场化的过程和现状，分析影响其发展的主要因素以及气象服务商业化发展的前景。     

气象服务商业化的由来与发展(二)

４气象服务商业化发展的背景上述几国商业气象服务的发展过程表明 ,国家气象部门开展商业气象服务的直接原因多与政府部门减少气象经费有关。但是私营商业气象服务在２０世纪４０年代末、５０年代初起步 ,８０年代以后得到快速发展 ,预示着气象服务的商业化有着更深的背景。４．１国民经济和社会发展对气象服务需求的增加 ,是气象服务商业化发展的前提在国民经济各行业中 ,与气象条件直接相关的是第一产业———农业。在自然环境下进行生产的第二产业（如采掘、电力、医药、航天、电子技术、遗传工程等）和第三产业（建筑、交通运输、邮电通…     

新老媒体融合提升公众气象服务传播能力的研究

通过分析公众气象服务现状和存在问题,探讨如何发挥新媒体与传统媒体相互融合的作用,共同提升公众气象服务传播能力。利用新媒体资源的特点和优势,建立平战结合、可持续发展的传播体系,以新带旧,以旧促新,在融合发展中实现气象信息传播模式的转型升级。同时利用技术创新,基于位置主动推送气象服务产品,构建有效的气象预警发布渠道,创建、筑牢气象品牌效应,探索走出一条新媒体商业化的气象服务途径。     

气象科技服务发展面临的认识问题和战略思考

坚持公共气象服务的发展方向，以气象科技成果、多轨道业务产品和新技术为依托，拓宽气象服务领域，提高气象服务质量，加强气象服务能力，体现气象服务价值，树立气象服务形象，展示气象服务贡献力。在业务体制改革的进程中，有必要考虑科技服务服务执行人的认识、理念、运作、成效等一些细节问题，以便提高服务的效能。     

气象科技服务发展的现状与对策

根据国外气象商业化发展情况,分析了我省当前气象科技服务的现状与问题,并结合本省经济快速发展对气象科技服务带来的机遇,提出了具体的对策与思考.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题

自地球形成至寒武纪将近40亿年（距今46亿～5.4亿年,通常称为前寒武纪）的气候演变是一个具有特殊难度和挑战性的研究领域,同时也是基础和前沿的研究领域。文章选择了前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题进行综述：大气演化、两次全球性的冰川期以及暗弱太阳问题。关于大气演化,本文首先描述了大气成分的演化历史,然后简述了影响大气成分演化的三个基本过程：大气逃逸、两次大气氧含量突然增加、碳酸盐-硅酸盐循环及其对气候系统的负反馈作用。两次全球性的冰川期分别发生在古元古代（距今24亿～21亿年）和新元古代（距今8亿～5.8亿年）,文章简述了其成因以及相关的气候模拟结果。暗弱太阳问题是地球历史气候演化的一个经典问题,论文简要地综述了一些最新的研究成果和观点。     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.