Streamflow variation due to glacier melting and climate change in upstream Heihe River Basin,Northwest China

Streamflow simulation is often challenging in mountainous watersheds because of incomplete hydrological models, irregular topography, immeasurable snowpack or glacier, and low data resolution. In this study, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model (SWAT-Soil Water Assessment Tool) coupled with a glacier melting algorithm was applied to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic and glacial changes in the upstream Heihe River Basin. The glacier mass balance was calculated at daily time-step using a distributed temperature-index melting and accumulation algorithm embedded in the SWAT model. Specifically, the model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow data measured at Yingluoxia Hydrological Station and decadal ice volume changes derived from survey maps and remote sensing images between 1960 and 2010. This study highlights the effects of glacier melting on streamflow and their future changes in the mountainous watersheds. We simulate the contribution of glacier melting to streamflow change under different scenarios of climate changes in terms of temperature and precipitation dynamics. The rising temperature positively contributed to streamflow due to the increase of snowmelt and glacier melting. The rising precipitation directly contributes to streamflow and it contributed more to streamflow than the rising temperature. The results show that glacial meltwater has contributed about 3.25 billion m³ to streamflow during 1960–2010. However, the depth of runoff within the watershed increased by about 2.3 mm due to the release of water from glacial storage to supply the intensified evapotranspiration and infiltration. The simulation results indicate that the glacier made about 8.9% contribution to streamflow in 2010. The research approach used in this study is feasible to estimate the glacial contribution to streamflow in other similar mountainous watersheds elsewhere.     

Modeling of the river ecological status with macrophytes using artificial neural networks

Biomonitoring methods based on macrophytes have been used mandatorily in the assessment of freshwaters since the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The Macrophyte Index for Rivers (MIR) was developed in Poland for the monitoring of running waters under the WFD requirements. This index shows the degree of river degradation under the influence of water pollutants, especially nutrients. The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between the MIR and various hydrochemical parameters using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Physico-chemical parameters of water (monthly results for the whole year), which were derived from 147 lowland river survey sites, all located in Poland, were applied to model the MIR values. Water quality variables were determined over three timeframes: the annual average; the average for the vegetation period; and the average for the summer period. Quality of the networks was assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The best modeling quality was obtained for yearly average values of water quality parameters. The quality statistics were: R² = 0.722, NSE = 0.721 and RMSE = 0.056 (training dataset); R² = 0.555, NSE = 0.533 and RMSE = 0.101 (validation dataset); R² = 0.650. NSE = 0.600 and RMSE = 0.089 (testing dataset). This indicates that macrophytes reflect the whole year impact of pollution, whereas summer.     

Seasonal drought predictability in Portugal using statistical–dynamical techniques

Atmospheric forecasting and predictability are important to promote adaption and mitigation measures in order to minimize drought impacts. This study estimates hybrid (statistical–dynamical) long-range forecasts of the regional drought index SPI (3-months) over homogeneous regions from mainland Portugal, based on forecasts from the UKMO operational forecasting system, with lead-times up to 6 months. ERA-Interim reanalysis data is used for the purpose of building a set of SPI predictors integrating recent past information prior to the forecast launching. Then, the advantage of combining predictors with both dynamical and statistical background in the prediction of drought conditions at different lags is evaluated. A two-step hybridization procedure is performed, in which both forecasted and observed 500 hPa geopotential height fields are subjected to a PCA in order to use forecasted PCs and persistent PCs as predictors. A second hybridization step consists on a statistical/hybrid downscaling to the regional SPI, based on regression techniques, after the pre-selection of the statistically significant predictors. The SPI forecasts and the added value of combining dynamical and statistical methods are evaluated in cross-validation mode, using the R² and binary event scores. Results are obtained for the four seasons and it was found that winter is the most predictable season, and that most of the predictive power is on the large-scale fields from past observations. The hybridization improves the downscaling based on the forecasted PCs, since they provide complementary information (though modest) beyond that of persistent PCs. These findings provide clues about the predictability of the SPI, particularly in Portugal, and may contribute to the predictability of crops yields and to some guidance on users (such as farmers) decision making process.     

Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

Trends of the three hydro-meteorological variables precipitation, temperature and stream flow, represented by 13, 12, and 9 gauging stations, respectively, within the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin have been studied to support water management in the region. The Trends were evaluated over different time periods depending on data availability at the stations. The statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to assess trends and change points respectively. The tests have been applied to mean annual, monthly, seasonal, 1- and 7-days annual minimum and maximum values for streamflow, while mean annual, monthly and seasonal timescales were applied to meteorological variables. The results are heterogeneous and depict statistically significant increasing/decreasing trends. Besides, it showed significant abrupt change of point upward/downward shift for streamflow and temperature time series. However, precipitation time series did not show any statistically significant trends in mean annual and seasonal scales across the examined stations.Increasing trends in temperature at different weather stations for the mean annual, rainy, dry and small rainy seasons are apparent. The mean temperature at Bahir Dar – typical station in the Lake Tana sub basin, has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 °C/decade, 0.3 °C/decade in rainy season (June–September), 0.6 °C/decade in small rainy season (March–May), and 0.6 °C/decade in dry season (October–February). Other stations in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile show comparable results. Overall it is found that trends and change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchment to catchment. Identified significant trends can help to make better planning decisions for water management. However, the cause attributes to the observed changes in hydro-meteorological variables need further research. In particular the combined effects of land use/land cover change and climate variability on streamflow of Abay/Blue Nile basin and its tributaries needs to be understood better.     

Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index

A new empirical model nowcasting and predicting a proxy to the geomagnetic K index is developed, which is based on the combined use of solar wind parameters and ground-based magnetic data. The present approach implements the previously developed solar wind-based MAK model, calibrating its values with magnetogram-derived K index. The new model is named as Hybrid Dourbes K (HDK) model. The HDK nowcast model provides the quantity Kdf, obtained by solar wind-based Ksw and corrected with a combination of differences between several past values of Kd and Ksw. The model error of the nowcast Kdf is found to be 0.38 KU, or nearly twice less than that of the MAK model. Kdf has a good predictability. Prediction made by weighted extrapolation 6 h ahead carries an error of 1.0 KU, while for the first 1 h the error is 0.58 KU only.     

Saturated area dynamics and streamflow generation from coupled surface–subsurface simulations and field observations

A distributed physically-based model describing coupled surface–subsurface flows is applied to an instrumented catchment to investigate the links between runoff generation processes and the dynamics of saturated areas. The spatial characterization of the system is obtained through geophysical measurements and in situ observations. The model is able to reproduce the dynamics of the system through the calibration of only few parameters with a clear physical interpretation, providing a solid basis for our numerical investigations. Such investigations demonstrate the important control exerted by surface topography on the time evolution of saturated area patterns, mainly mediated by topographic curvature, that dictates both the dominant streamflow generation process at the local scale and the connection-disconnection dynamics of saturated areas. The relation between hillslope water storage and streamflow, Q = f(V), is shown to be highly hysteretical and dependent on the mean saturation of the catchment: higher degrees of saturation tend to yield one-to-one relationships between streamflow and water storage. On the contrary, streamflow-water storage relations are importantly affected by the specific configuration of saturated areas connected to the outlet when the system is far from complete saturation. This observation contradicts common assumptions of a one-to-one relationship Q = f(V) often used to justify widely observed power-law Q vs. dQ/dt recession curves. Furthermore, even when Q = f(V) becomes unique at high degrees of saturation, no power-law form emerged in our runs, speculatively because of the small size of the catchment formed by a single incision and the corresponding hillslope.     

Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models

Abstract

New wavelet and artificial neural network (WA) hybrid models are proposed for daily streamflow forecasting at 1, 3, 5 and 7 days ahead, based on the low-frequency components of the original signal (approximations). The results show that the proposed hybrid models give significantly better results than the classical artificial neural network (ANN) model for all tested situations. For short-term (1-day ahead) forecasts, information on higher-frequency signal components was essential to ensure good model performance. However, for forecasting more days ahead, lower-frequency components are needed as input to the proposed hybrid models. The WA models also proved to be effective for eliminating the lags often seen in daily streamflow forecasts obtained by classical ANN models. 

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. See

Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Silva, G.B.L., 2013. Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 312–324.     

Simulating wind-affected snow accumulations at catchment to basin scales

In non-forested mountain regions, wind plays a dominant role in determining snow accumulation and melt patterns. A new, computationally efficient algorithm for distributing the complex and heterogeneous effects of wind on snow distributions was developed. The distribution algorithm uses terrain structure, vegetation, and wind data to adjust commonly available precipitation data to simulate wind-affected accumulations. This research describes model development and application in three research catchments in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwest Idaho, USA. All three catchments feature highly variable snow distributions driven by wind. The algorithm was used to derive model forcings for Isnobal, a mass and energy balance distributed snow model. Development and initial testing took place in the Reynolds Mountain East catchment (0.36 km²) where R² values for the wind-affected snow distributions ranged from 0.50 to 0.67 for four observation periods spanning two years. At the Upper Sheep Creek catchment (0.26 km²) R² values for the wind-affected model were 0.66 and 0.70. These R² values matched or exceeded previously published cross-validation results from regression-based statistical analyses of snow distributions in similar environments. In both catchments the wind-affected model accurately located large drift zones, snow-scoured slopes, and produced melt patterns consistent with observed streamflow. Models that did not account for wind effects produced relatively homogenous SWE distributions, R² values approaching 0.0, and melt patterns inconsistent with observed streamflow. The Dobson Creek (14.0 km²) application incorporated elevation effects into the distribution routine and was conducted over a two-dimensional grid of 6.67 × 10⁵ pixels. Comparisons with satellite-derived snow-covered-area again demonstrated that the model did an excellent job locating regions with wind-affected snow accumulations. This final application demonstrated that the computational efficiency and modest data requirements of this approach are ideally suited for large-scale operational applications.     

Pliocene climate change of the Southwest Pacific and the impact of ocean gateways

The transition from the early Pliocene “Warmhouse” towards the present “Icehouse” climate and the role of Gateway dynamics are intensively debated. Both, the constrictions of the Central American Seaway and the Indonesian Gateway affected ocean circulation and climate during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we use combined δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca ratios of planktonic foraminifera (marine protozoa) from surface and subsurface levels to reconstruct the thermal structure and changes in salinities from the Southwest Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 590B from 6.5 to 2.5 Ma. Our data suggest a gradual cooling of ~ 2 °C and freshening of the sea surface during ~ 4.6–4 Ma with an increased meridional temperature gradient between the West Pacific Warm Pool and the Southwest Pacific when the closing of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold. After ~ 3.5 Ma, the restricted Indonesian Gateway might have amplified the East Australian Current, allowing enhanced heat transport towards the Southwest Pacific with reduced meridional temperature gradients when the global climate gradually cooled. At the same time our data suggest a cooling and freshening of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) or/and an increased northward flow of SAMW towards Site 590B, possibly a first step towards the present Antarctic Frontal System.     

A 3D resistivity model derived from the transient electromagnetic data observed on the Araba fault,Jordan

72 inloop transient electromagnetic soundings were carried out on two 2 km long profiles perpendicular and two 1 km and two 500 m long profiles parallel to the strike direction of the Araba fault in Jordan which is the southern part of the Dead Sea transform fault indicating the boundary between the African and Arabian continental plates. The distance between the stations was on average 50 m.The late time apparent resistivities derived from the induced voltages show clear differences between the stations located at the eastern and at the western part of the Araba fault. The fault appears as a boundary between the resistive western (ca. 100 Ωm) and the conductive eastern part (ca. 10 Ωm) of the survey area. On profiles parallel to the strike late time apparent resistivities were almost constant as well in the time dependence as in lateral extension at different stations, indicating a 2D resistivity structure of the investigated area.After having been processed, the data were interpreted by conventional 1D Occam and Marquardt inversion. The study using 2D synthetic model data showed, however, that 1D inversions of stations close to the fault resulted in fictitious layers in the subsurface thus producing large interpretation errors. Therefore, the data were interpreted by a 2D forward resistivity modeling which was then extended to a 3D resistivity model. This 3D model explains satisfactorily the time dependences of the observed transients at nearly all stations.     

U–Pb dating of calcite–aragonite layers in speleothems from hominin sites in South Africa by MC-ICP-MS

Speleothems are found in association with hominin fossil-bearing cave deposits in South Africa and can be used to provide valuable chronological constraints. Such material is generally too old for U–Th dating and, although U–Pb geochronology presents a suitable alternative, bulk U concentrations are typically too low (<0.05 μg/g) to provide useful ages. For this reason, we used a simple non-invasive beta-scanner imaging screening step to identify U-rich (≥1 μg/g) domains that could be analyzed with MC-ICP-MS techniques to provide U–Pb ages. We demonstrate the technique using samples from Sterkfontein cave that exhibit infrequent <1 cm-thick layers with U concentrations ≥1 μg/g. Relict aragonite needles are found exclusively in these U-rich layers. We analyzed material from the same flowstone suite as Walker et al. (2006) and obtained a U–Pb age of ～2.3 Ma that agrees well with their estimate of 2.24 ± 0.09 Ma. We also obtained similar U–Pb (0.164 ± 0.026 to 0.200 ± 0.052 Ma) and U–Th (0.148 ± 0.003 Ma) ages for another sample exhibiting U-rich layers. We recognize that open-system behaviour during the partial transformation of aragonite to calcite is a potential problem and argue, on the basis of geochemistry and age consistencies, that recrystallization took place rapidly after speleothem formation and did not significantly affect the U–Pb ages.     

Relationship between the PC and AL indices during repetitive bay-like magnetic disturbances in the auroral zone

To study the relations of the polar cap (PC) magnetic activity (characterized by the PC index) to magnetic disturbances in the auroral zone (AL index) the behavior of 62 repetitive bay-like magnetic disturbances has been analyzed. It was found that the PC index, derived as a proxy of the geoeffective interplanetary electric field Em, starts to increase, on average, about 30 min ahead of the magnetic disturbance onset. Value of Em and PC～2 mV/m seems to be necessary for development of the repetitive bay-like disturbances with peak AL exceeding 400 nT. Growth phase duration (the time interval between the start of PC increase and AL sudden onset) and intensity of magnetic disturbances in the auroral zone (AL max) highly correlate with the PC growth rate. The growth phase reduces to a few minutes, if the PC index suddenly jumps above ～6–8 mV/m. The sharp development of Birkeland current wedge during expansion phase insignificantly influences the polar cap activity: the corresponding PC index increase does not exceed 10–20% of the PC value. It is concluded that the PC index may be considered as a convenient proxy of the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere.     

Tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Briançonnais zone (Modane-Aussois and Southern Vanoise units,Lyon Turin transect,Western Alps)

In the central Western Alps, a combined structural, petrological and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar geochronological study of the Modane-Aussois and Southern Vanoise units yields important constraints on the timing of deformation and exhumation of the Briançonnais zone. These data help to decipher the respective roles of oceanic subduction, continental subduction and collision in the burial and exhumation of the main units through time. In the Modane-Aussois unit top to the NW thrusting (D1) was followed by top to the east shearing (D2) interpreted by some as normal faulting and by others as backthrusting. Pseudosection calculations imply that D1 deformation occurred at 1.0 ± 0.1 GPa and 350 ± 30 °C. Analysis of chlorite–phengite pairs yield P–T estimates between 0.15 and 0.65 GPa and between 220 and 350 °C for the D2 event. Phengites along the D1 schistosity (sample M80) yields an ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar age of 37.12 ± 0.39 Ma, while D2 phengites yield ages of 35.42 ± 0.38 (sample M173) and 31.60 ± 0.33 Ma (sample M196). It was not possible to test whether these ages are altered by excess argon or not. Our interpretation is that the D1/D2 transition occurred at ∼37 Ma at the beginning of decompression, and that D2 lasted until at least ∼32 Ma. Pseudosection calculation suggests that the Southern Vanoise unit was buried at 1.6 ± 0.2 GPa and 500–540 °C. D1 deformation occurred during exhumation until 0.7–10.5 GPa and 370 ± 30 °C. Published ages suggest that D1 deformation possibly started at ∼50 Ma and lasted until ∼37 Ma. D2 deformations started at P–T conditions close to that recorded in Modane-Aussois unit and lasted until 0.2 ± 0.1 GPa and 280 ± 30 °C at ∼28 Ma. The gap of 0.6 ± 0.3 GPa and 150 ± 130 °C between peak metamorphic conditions in the two units was concealed by thrusting of the South Vanoise unit on top of the Modane-Aussois unit during D1 Deformation. Top to the east deformation (D2) affects both units and is interpreted as backthrusting.Based on these data, we propose a geodynamic reconstruction where the oceanic subduction of the Piedmont unit until ∼50 Ma, is followed by its exhumation at the time of continental subduction of the continental Southern Vanoise unit until ∼45 Ma. The Southern Vanoise is in turn underthrusted by the Modane-Aussois unit until ∼37 Ma (D1). Between 37 and 31 Ma the Modane-Aussois and Southern Vanoise units exhume together during backthrusting to the east (D2). This corresponds to the collision stage and to the activation of the Penninic Thrust. In the ∼50 Ma to ∼31 Ma time period the main thrusts propagated westward as the tectonic context switched from oceanic to continental subduction and finally to collision. During each stage, external units are buried while internal ones are exhumed.     

40Ar/39Ar temporal framework for the Alleret maar lacustrine sequence (French Massif-Central): Volcanological and paleoclimatic implications

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France) is part of the few Western European early middle Pleistocene lacustrine sequences. In the AL3 core several new ash layers were recovered in the 10 first meters of the sedimentary filling. We obtained three ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages, which range from 683 ± 5 ka (MSWD: 1.2, n = 17) to 722 ± 6 ka (MSWD: 3.2, n = 18). All the studied ash layers belong to the Super-Besse eruptive cycle of the Sancy volcano. Based on the chronostratigraphy that we have derived we estimate that the age of the main eruption could correspond to the Sancy volcano caldera formation at 725 ka close to the end of MIS 18 and that the Super-Besse explosive episode duration lasted only about 40 ka. The time framework we build evidences that the Alleret lacustrine sequence represents a time interval of probably 180 ka spanning from MIS 18 to MIS 14. This sequence offers the first well constrained comparison between terrestrial environmental history and that preserved in marine sediments during the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution.     

The penultimate deglaciation: High-resolution paleoceanographic evidence from a north–south transect along the eastern Nordic Seas

The penultimate termination has been studied with focus on oceanographic changes in the eastern Nordic Seas and the influence of these changes on the surrounding ice sheets and vice versa. Repeatedly, major changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) occurred during the studied interval. Times of strong overturning and increased heat transport northwards were of importance in triggering one minor and two major disintegration events. The two major disintegration events were separated by a deglacial pause, characterized by a strong AMOC. The same variability is seen throughout the eastern Nordic Seas, from the Faeroe–Shetland Channel in the south to the Fram Strait in the north. Some of the oceanographic changes occurring during the penultimate termination are comparable with changes seen through the last deglaciation. Reduced winter moisture flux and increased summer melting due to the present insolation forcing further amplified the rate of ice sheet disintegration. Calculated sea-level change through TII shows a mean change of 121 ± 4 m, 41 ± 16 m in the first step and 80 ± 13 m in the last step.     

40Ar / 39Ar geochronology constraints on late miocene weathering rates in Minas Gerais,Brazil

⁴⁰Ar / ³⁹Ar incremental heating ages for twenty one grains of cryptomelane, collected at 0, 42, 45, and 60 m depths in the Cachoeira Mine weathering profile, Minas Gerais, permit calculating long-term (10 Ma time scale) weathering rate (saprolitization rate) in SE Brazil. Pure well-crystallized cryptomelane grains with high K contents (3–5 wt.%) yield reliable geochronological results. The ⁴⁰Ar / ³⁹Ar plateau ages obtained decrease from the top to the bottom of the profile (12.7 ± 0.1 to 7.6 ± 0.1 Ma at surface; 7.6  ± 0.2 to 6.1 ± 0.2 Ma at 42 m; and 7.1 ± 0.2 to 5.9 ± 0.1 Ma at 45 m; 6.6 ± 0.1 to 5.2 ± 0.1 Ma at 60 m), yielding a weathering front propagation rate of 8.9 ± 1.1 m/m.y. From the geochronological results and the mineral transformations implicit by the current mineralogy in the weathering profiles, it is possible to calculate the saprolitization rate for the Cachoeira Mine lithologies and for adjacent weathering profiles developed on granodiorites and schists. The measured weathering front propagation rate yields a saprolitization rate of 24.9 ± 3.1 t/km²/yr. This average long-term (> 10 Ma) saprolitization rate is consistent with mass balance calculations results for present saprolitization rates in weathering watersheds. These results are also consistent with long-term saprolitization rates estimated by combining cosmogenic isotope denudation rates with mass balance calculations.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of fault slip rates across the Central Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone

Patterns in fault slip rates through time and space are examined across the transition from the Sierra Nevada to the Eastern California Shear Zone–Walker Lane belt. At each of four sites along the eastern Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone between 38 and 39° N latitude, geomorphic markers, such as glacial moraines and outwash terraces, are displaced by a suite of range-front normal faults. Using geomorphic mapping, surveying, and ¹⁰Be surface exposure dating, mean fault slip rates are defined, and by utilizing markers of different ages (generally, ~ 20 ka and ~ 150 ka), rates through time and interactions among multiple faults are examined over 10⁴–10⁵ year timescales.At each site for which data are available for the last ~ 150 ky, mean slip rates across the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone have probably not varied by more than a factor of two over time spans equal to half of the total time interval (~ 20 ky and ~ 150 ky timescales): 0.3 ± 0.1 mm year^? 1 (mode and 95% CI) at both Buckeye Creek in the Bridgeport basin and Sonora Junction; and 0.4 + 0.3/?0.1 mm year^? 1 along the West Fork of the Carson River at Woodfords. Data permit rates that are relatively constant over the time scales examined. In contrast, slip rates are highly variable in space over the last ~ 20 ky. Slip rates decrease by a factor of 3–5 northward over a distance of ~ 20 km between the northern Mono Basin (1.3 + 0.6/?0.3 mm year^? 1 at Lundy Canyon site) to the Bridgeport Basin (0.3 ± 0.1 mm year^? 1). The 3-fold decrease in the slip rate on the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone northward from Mono Basin is indicative of a change in the character of faulting north of the Mina Deflection as extension is transferred eastward onto normal faults between the Sierra Nevada and Walker Lane belt.A compilation of regional deformation rates reveals that the spatial pattern of extension rates changes along strike of the Eastern California Shear Zone-Walker Lane belt. South of the Mina Deflection, extension is accommodated within a diffuse zone of normal and oblique faults, with extension rates increasing northward on the Fish Lake Valley fault. Where faults of the Eastern California Shear Zone terminate northward into the Mina Deflection, extension rates increase northward along the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone to ~ 0.7 mm year^? 1 in northern Mono Basin. This spatial pattern suggests that extension is transferred from more easterly fault systems, e.g., Fish Lake Valley fault, and localized on the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone as the Eastern California Shear Zone–Walker Lane belt faulting is transferred through the Mina Deflection.     

Assessing crop yield benefits from in situ rainwater harvesting through contour ridges in semi-arid Zimbabwe

Rainwater harvesting through modified contour ridges known as dead level contours has been practiced in Zimbabwe in the last two decades. Studies have shown marginal soil moisture retention benefits for using this technique while results on crop yield benefits are lacking. This paper presents results from a field study for assessing the impact of dead level contours on soil moisture and crop yield carried out from 2009 to 2011 within the Limpopo River Basin. The experiments were carried out on two study sites; one containing silt loam soil and another containing sandy soil. Three treatments constituting dead level contoured plots, non-contoured plots and plots with the traditional graded contours were used on each site. All the three treatments were planted with a maize crop and managed using conventional farming methods. Planting, weeding and fertiliser application in the three treatments were done at the same time. Crop monitoring was carried out on sub plots measuring 4 m by 4 m established in every treatment. The development of the crop was monitored until harvesting time with data on plant height, leaf moisture and crop yield being collected. An analysis of the data shows that in the site with silt loam soil more soil moisture accumulated after heavy rainfall in dead level contour plots compared to the control (no contours) and graded contour plots (P < 0.05). However the maize crop experienced an insignificantly (P > 0.05) higher yield in the dead level contoured treatment compared to the non-contoured treatment while a significantly (P < 0.05) higher yield was obtained in the dead level contoured treatment when compared with a graded contoured treatment. Different results were obtained from the site with sandy soil where there was no significant difference in soil moisture after a high rainfall event of 60 mm/day between dead level contour plots compared to the control and graded contour plots. The yield from the dead level contoured treatment and that from the graded contoured treatment were comparable and both not significantly (P > 0.05) higher than that from the non-contoured treatment. This suggests that adopting dead level contours as an in situ rainwater harvesting technique results in crop yield benefits in fields with soil type conditions that enable runoff generation but is not likely to have benefit in soils with low runoff generation.     

Cave air ventilation and CO2 outgassing by radon-222 modeling: How fast do caves breathe?

In general, the rate and timing of calcite precipitation is in part affected by variations in cave air CO₂ concentrations. Knowledge of cave ventilation processes is required to quantify the effect variations in CO₂ concentrations have on speleothem deposition rates and thus paleoclimate records. In this study we use radon-222 (²²²Rn) as a proxy of ventilation to estimate CO₂ outgassing from the cave to the atmosphere, which can be used to infer relative speleothem deposition rates. Hollow Ridge Cave, a wild cave preserve in Marianna, Florida, is instrumented inside and out with multiple micro-meteorological sensor stations that record continuous physical and air chemistry time-series data. Our time series datasets indicate diurnal and seasonal variations in cave air ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentrations, punctuated by events that provide clues to ventilation and drip water degassing mechanisms. Average cave air ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentrations vary seasonally between winter (²²²Rn = 50 dpm L^? 1, where 1 dpm L^? 1 = 60 Bq m^? 3; CO₂ = 360 ppmv) and summer (²²²Rn = 1400 dpm L^? 1; CO₂ = 3900 ppmv). Large amplitude diurnal variations are observed during late summer and autumn (²²²Rn = 6 to 581 dpm L^? 1; CO₂ = 360 to 2500 ppmv).We employ a simple first-order ²²²Rn mass balance model to estimate cave air exchange rates with the outside atmosphere. Ventilation occurs via density driven flow and by winds across the entrances which create a ‘venturi’ effect. The most rapid ventilation occurs 25 m inside the cave near the entrance: 45 h^? 1 (1.33 min turnover time). Farther inside (175 m) exchange is slower and maximum ventilation rates are 3 h^? 1 (22 min turnover time). We estimate net CO₂ flux from the epikarst to the cave atmosphere using a CO₂ mass balance model tuned with the ²²²Rn model. Net CO₂ flux from the epikarst is highest in summer (72 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1) and lowest in late autumn and winter (12 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1). Modeled ventilation and net CO₂ fluxes are used to estimate net CO₂ outgassing from the cave to the atmosphere. Average net CO₂ outgassing is positive (net loss from the cave) and is highest in late summer and early autumn (about 4 mol h^? 1) and lowest in winter (about 0.5 mol h^? 1). Modeling of ventilation, net CO₂ flux from the epikarst, and CO₂ outgassing to the atmosphere from cave monitoring time-series can help better constrain paleoclimatic interpretations of speleothem geochemical records.     

Water mass variation in the Mediterranean and Black Seas

The mass-induced sea level variability and the net mass transport between Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea are derived for the interval between August 2002 and July 2008 from satellite-based observations and from model data. We construct in each basin two time series representing the basin mean mass signal in terms of equivalent water height. The first series is obtained from steric-corrected altimetry while the other is deduced from GRACE data corrected for the contamination by continental hydrology. The series show a good agreement in terms of annual and inter-annual signals, which is in line with earlier works, although different model corrections influence the consistency in terms of seasonal signal and trend.In the Mediterranean Sea, we obtain the best agreement using a steric correction from the regional oceanographic model MFSTEP and a continental hydrological leakage correction derived from the global continental hydrological model WaterGAP2. The inter-annual time series show a correlation of 0.85 and a root mean square (RMS) difference of 15 mm. The two estimates have similar accuracy and their annual amplitude and phase agree within 3 mm and 23 days respectively. The GRACE-derived mass-induced sea level variability yields an annual amplitude of 27 ± 5 mm peaking in December and a trend of 5.3 ± 1.9 mm/yr, which deviates within 3 mm/yr from the altimetry-derived estimate.In the Black Sea, the series are less consistent, with lower accuracy of the GRACE-derived estimate, but still show a promising agreement considering the smaller size of the basin. The best agreement is realized choosing the corrections from WaterGAP2 and from the regional oceanographic model NEMO. The inter-annual time series have a correlation and RMS differences of 0.68 and 55 mm, their annual amplitude and phase agree within 4 mm and 6 days respectively. The GRACE-derived seawater mass signal has an annual amplitude of 32 ± 4 mm peaking in April. On inter-annual time scales, the mass-induced sea level variability is stronger than in the Mediterranean Sea, with an increase from 2003 to 2005 followed by a decrease from 2006 to 2008.Based on mass conservation, the mass-induced sea level variations, river runoff and precipitation minus evaporation are combined to derive the strait flows between the basins and with the Atlantic Ocean. At the Gibraltar strait, the net inflow varies annually with an amplitude of 52 ± 10 × 10⁻³ Sv peaking end of September (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). The inflow through the Bosphorus strait displays an annual amplitude of 13 ± 3 ×10⁻³ Sv peaking in the middle of March. Additionally, an increase of the Gibraltar net inflow (3.4 ± 0.8 × 10⁻³ Sv/yr) is detected.